Arm Holdings (ARM.US) 2026财年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Arm forecasts doubling IP business revenue to $100 billion by 2028, with licensing growing 10% annually. AI-driven chip business aims for profitability next year, hitting 35% operating margin by 2031. Arm anticipates $15 billion AGI CPU and $10 billion IP revenue by fiscal year 31, bolstered by strategic partnerships and R&D investments.
会议速览
The call features forward-looking financial insights, risk factors, and non-GAAP measures discussion, led by the Investor Relations head, with Q&A session rules outlined.
The company achieved record revenue, highlighting strong demand for Arm's platform in AI, with significant growth in licensing and royalty revenues. Key focus areas include expanding the Arm Compute platform, achieving design wins with major cloud providers, and scaling Arm-based CPUs for AI infrastructure, positioning Arm as central to future AI workloads across cloud, edge, and physical systems.
The company achieved a record quarter with a 20% year-on-year revenue growth to $1.49 billion, exceeding previous records. Royalty revenue from Cloud AI Data Center and Edge AI, along with licensing deals, including a significant agreement with SoftBank, contributed significantly. Strategic partnerships and demand for next-generation Arm technology, particularly in AI and data center solutions, propelled revenue, with projections of over $2 billion in demand for fiscal 27 and 28.
The company's non-GAAP operating expenses reached $734 million, 30% higher than the previous year, primarily due to significant RD investments. This led to a non-GAAP operating income of $731 million, with a margin of approximately 49%, resulting in a non-GAAP EPS of 60 cents, bolstered by higher revenue and lower-than-expected OpEx.
A financial update reveals Q1 revenue expectations of $1.26 billion, with a 20% year-on-year increase in royalty and license revenues. Non-GAAP operating expenses are forecasted at $760 million, yielding a non-GAAP EPS of 40 cents. Long-term growth is anticipated, with $15 billion in AGI CPU and $10 billion in IP revenue projected by FYE 31, translating to over $9 in EPS.
The dialogue discusses the significant increase in demand for newly launched AI CPUs, highlighting the origins of this demand from both existing and new customers. It emphasizes the rapid deployment facilitated by pre-configured racks from partners and the strategic efforts to secure additional supply, including memory and wafers, to meet the doubled demand without altering the guidance.
The dialogue covers revenue expectations, noting a target of $96 billion with a $500 billion forecast for Q4. It emphasizes updates on the supply chain and a more definitive Q3 estimate, along with guidance for the fiscal year-end.
Discusses Q4 slowdown in royalty revenue due to a strong ramp in mediate last year, predicting a return to 20% growth in Q1. Highlights continued growth in data center and automotive sectors, offsetting potential weaknesses in memory and mobile markets. Anticipates sustained upside from cloud AI partners and Arm-based chip deployments.
The dialogue discusses the projected growth of the CPU market, emphasizing Arm's potential to achieve the largest market share by the end of the decade. It highlights the increasing demand for high core count CPUs, Arm's efficiency in such designs, and its strong partnerships with major tech companies. The conversation also touches on the expanding market for Arm-based CPUs, driven by hyperscalers and customers unable to design their own CPUs, indicating a significant opportunity for Arm in the evolving CPU landscape.
A discussion on Arm CPUs' expected dominance in server markets, with a focus on customer support and operational expenses for Arm-based server racks, indicating a strategic approach to market expansion and service.
Discussed projected royalty revenue growth at approximately 28% for FY27, with a consistent quarterly flow and back-end weighting for licensing. Anticipated OpEx growth sequentially by a few percent each quarter, aiming for incremental margin improvement and revenue alignment by year-end.
Discusses future CPU to GPU ratio dynamics, emphasizing core count growth over chip count, highlighting dedicated CPU racks in data centers to manage AI workloads, and predicting a shift in system architecture to accommodate increasing CPU demands alongside GPU scaling.
Arm's strategy to sell silicon has garnered support from key ecosystem partners, including EDA vendors, software developers, and IP licensees. The company engaged these partners early, explaining the benefits of the shift for the Arm ecosystem. Despite potential tensions with IP customers, the strategy has been endorsed by major players, who see the value in increased software optimization for Arm. This move is driven by customer demand, with Arm now sold out on products and facing continued demand.
Discussed significant year-on-year growth in data center royalty revenues, doubling IP business expectations, and projected 10%+ long-term growth in licensing revenue amid AI investment trends.
The dialogue discusses the Opex attributed to the chip business and its impact on earnings power as chip revenues increase. The speaker outlines revenue projections for 2027 and 2028, emphasizing the profitability of the chip business due to leveraging existing It business costs. The goal is to achieve a 35% operating margin for the chip business by 2031, contingent on Apple revenue growth.
The dialogue explores the efficiency of single-core versus multi-core designs for handling asynchronous agent workloads, advocating for increased core counts in CPU chips to enhance performance and power efficiency, with implications for future hardware development and cost trends.
Arm forecasts a significant revenue increase, projecting $15 billion by fiscal 31, driven by strong demand in compute, accelerated adoption by tech giants, and doubling IP revenue year on year. The company highlights the success of ARM ACIs, with demand surging from $1 billion to $2 billion, showcasing its pivotal role in the growing tech landscape.
要点回答
Q:What are the components that drove the revenue growth in the fourth quarter?
A:The revenue growth in the fourth quarter was driven by a 29% year-over-year growth in licensing revenue, which reached $819 million, and an 11% year-over-year growth in royalty revenue, which amounted to $671 million. The growth was particularly notable in edge AI, physical AI, and cloud AI sectors, with the data center royalty more than doubling year over year.
Q:What is the strategic position of the RAGI CPU in the market?
A:The RAGI CPU, launched at the Arm Everywhere event, is purpose-built for edge AI and is strategically positioned to address the need for more efficient AI data centers. It has the potential to reduce AI data center capital expenditure by up to $100 billion per gigawatt. Key partners like Meta are working on a multi-generation roadmap to support extensive AI infrastructure. This development expands the ways customers can utilize the Arm platform, both through IP compute subsystems and silicon, as well as through the ArmCompute software ecosystem.
Q:What are the key customer responses and commitments to the Arm AGI CPU?
A:Customer response to the Arm AGI CPU has been very strong, with more than $2 billion of customer demand across fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, more than doubling what was stated at launch. Notable commitments include SAP moving their core database and business application workloads to Arm, starting with AWS Graviton and expanding the use of the RAGI CPU; Cloudflare deploying Arm across its global network; and design wins with key network infrastructure providers like F5 and SK Telecom. Additionally, major cloud providers like AWS, Google, and Nvidia are using Arm-based CPUs as head nodes in their AI systems.
Q:How is the data center AI infrastructure evolving according to recent customer announcements?
A:Recent customer announcements demonstrate that AI infrastructure is evolving towards a greater integration of Arm-based CPUs. Examples include Google Cloud's TPU 8 t for training and TPU 8 I for inference, which replace x 86 host processors with custom Arm-based Cpu's, resulting in increased performance and power efficiency. Similarly, AWS continues to scale its custom silicon strategy with Arm-based Graviton alongside Turing andNitro, and Microsoft is advancing its Arm-based strategy with Cobalt, designed for high-performance and energy-efficient compute. This indicates that the adoption of Arm-based CPUs is central to performance efficiency and cloud economics.
Q:What is the strategic vision for the next generation of AI workloads and how is it expected to scale across various devices?
A:The strategic vision is to grow royalties through IP and CSS and to add silicon as a new growth sector. The focus is on scaling the Arm platform across the next generation of AI workloads. With a strong foundation and continued execution, the aim is to build a future of AI on Arm, extending from cloud infrastructure to the edge and the physical world through a common compute platform and ecosystem. This strategy is underpinned by the momentum in data center AI and the anticipated needs of AI infrastructure in every device, including phones, PCs, vehicles, factories, and sensors.
Q:What are the main factors driving the growth in royalty revenue?
A:Growth in royalty revenue is primarily driven by the accelerating ramp of Arm based server chips by major hyperscalers and increased deployment of data center networking chips, especially dpu's and sparneck where Arm has significant market share.
Q:What new strategic partnerships and licensing deals have been signed?
A:New strategic partnerships include a long-term agreement with the Indonesian government and two next generation CSS licenses for chip development, one for smartphones and the other for data center networking chips.
Q:What is the amount of license revenue and how much was contributed by the SoftBank agreement?
A:The amount of license revenue was $819 million, with the SoftBank agreement contributing $200 million.
Q:What is the updated forecast for demand and revenue related to the AGI CPU?
A:The updated forecast indicates more than $2 billion of demand across fiscal 27 and 28 for the AGI CPU, with the company maintaining its outlook at $1 billion while working on supply chain capacity.
Q:What is the projected AGI CPU revenue and IP revenue by the end of fiscal 31?
A:By the end of fiscal 31, the projected AGI CPU revenue is $15 billion, and the projected IP revenue is $10 billion, totaling $25 billion, which is expected to translate to more than $9 in EPS.
Q:How has the demand for the new AGI CPU changed since the last event and what type of customers have shown increased interest?
A:The demand for the new AGI CPU has more than doubled since the last event, and it's a combination of increased forecast from existing customers and new interest from other customers looking to deploy the technology.
Q:What are the plans for accessing supply to meet the increased demand for the AGI CPU?
A:The company is working with partners to provide different options for the CPU, including finished racks from Supermicro, Lenovo, and other partners, and is securing supply for $2 billion in demand, which includes memory, wafers, packaging, and test equipment.
Q:How is the company managing the increased demand in relation to supply chain expectations and guidance?
A:The company is actively managing the increased demand by working around the clock to find solutions and ensure supply availability, while also adjusting guidance accordingly.
Q:Has the company's guidance for revenue and non-GAAP operating expenses been changed due to the increase in demand?
A:The company's guidance has not been changed regarding revenue and non-GAAP operating expenses despite the increase in demand.
Q:What is the expected growth for royalty revenues and how is it anticipated to be distributed across the quarters?
A:The expected growth for royalty revenues is approximately 28% for the year. This growth is expected to be distributed with a back-end weighting, with around 60% in the second half of the year and 40% in the front half.
Q:What is the expected pattern for Opex growth throughout the year?
A:The expected pattern for Opex growth is an increase of a few percent sequentially every quarter. The overall expense is expected to improve with incremental margins throughout the year, and by the end of the year, the company should be delivering on incremental revenue like it was a couple of years ago.
Q:What are the expectations regarding the CPU to GPU ratio and when do you expect it to cross 1 to 1?
A:The expectations suggest that while the ratio may not change significantly from a chip standpoint, it may change from a core count standpoint. The growth in the CPU to GPU ratio is not expected to be in the head node of the GPU architecture but rather in the number of CPU cores, which is anticipated to double or quadruple.
Q:What is the potential impact of new CPU-only racks on the CPU to GPU ratio?
A:The potential impact of new CPU-only racks, such as the 256 Vera CPU chips mentioned by Nvidia, could change the CPU to GPU ratio significantly. With more CPU-only racks, the ratio could shift as the demand for CPUs in data centers increases.
Q:How has the shift in business model affected existing IP customers and what is the company's approach to managing this transition?
A:The shift in business model to include AGI CPU has been communicated to existing IP customers early on, and their support was obtained by explaining the strategy and benefits to the wider ecosystem. The company sought and received support from various partners including EDA partners, software developers, and product licensees. This support was crucial as the customers have products that run on Arm-based chips. The primary reason for the shift was customer demand, and the company is responding to this market demand.
Q:How are data center royalty revenues expected to grow in fiscal year 27 compared to fiscal year 26?
A:Data center royalty revenues are expected to grow significantly in fiscal year 27, doubling year on year as customers build chips based on neoverse.
Q:What is the projected growth rate for license revenue in fiscal 2028 and beyond?
A:The projected growth rate for license revenue in fiscal 2028 is expected to be more in the 20% range, while long-term targets suggest a range of high single digits to low double digits percent growth.
Q:What is the Opex attributed to supporting the chip business and when can it drive accretion to earnings power?
A:The Opex attributed to supporting the chip business is expected to be more in the 20% range for this year and is embedded in the plan and guidance. Accretion to earnings power may be driven as chip revenues increase and work through existing wafer memory shortage issues.
Q:What is the projected operating margin for the chip business compared to the IP business in 2031?
A:The projected operating margin for the chip business in 2031 is in the 35% percent range, while the IP business is expected to reach a 65% operating margin business or EBITDA margin business. The timeline to reach these numbers will depend on how chip revenue grows.
Q:What is the core count perspective for the AGI and how is it related to orchestrating requests from accelerators?
A:The core count perspective for AGI is to look at it from a core per job basis rather than per token generated by the accelerator. Each agent runs a job independently and does not necessarily require one core per token, suggesting a more complex relationship than a simple core-to-token ratio.
Q:How does the company view the relationship between core counts in CPU chips and revenue growth?
A:The company views larger core counts in CPU chips as more beneficial for power efficiency and the ability to run more batches, leading to increased revenue. This supports the expectation of higher revenue driven by CPU cores in the future.

Arm Holdings plc
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