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台积电 (TSM.US) 2026年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
The earnings call revealed strong AI and HPC demand, guiding capacity expansion and technology leadership. Gross margins were projected to rise, with capex guidance adjusted upwards. TSMC addressed competition, emphasizing its manufacturing excellence and strategic partnerships. Long-term growth in AI revenues and market dynamics were discussed, highlighting advanced packaging technologies and technical challenges.
会议速览
TSMC’s first-quarter 2026 investor conference will be broadcast entirely in English.
TSMC held a corporate briefing for the first quarter of 2026, which was broadcast live in English to introduce the operational overview and the outlook for the second quarter, reminding the discussion that forward-looking statements may be affected by risks, and then opening a question-and-answer session.
First Quarter Financial Highlights and Second Quarter Guidance: Revenue Growth and Advanced Process Contribution
Revenue in the first quarter increased by 8.4 from the previous quarter. Thanks to the strong demand for advanced process technology, gross profit margin increased by 3.9 percentage points to 66.2, and operational efficiency improved. Among the three major process technologies, 3nm contributes 25% of wafer revenue, with 74% of 7nm and below. HPC platform revenue accounted for 61%, smart phones fell 11%. Cash flow was strong, with NT $69.9 billion cash generated from operating activities and 35.1 billion capex. Second-quarter revenue expectations are solid, highlighting strong market demand for 3nm and 2nm technologies.
TSMC's Financial Outlook and Global Supply Chain Strategy for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026
TSMC expects revenue to reach $39 billion to $42 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, up 32% year-on-year and gross margin of 65.5-67.5%. The company emphasizes that in the Middle East, it has established diversified supply chains and energy security measures to ensure operational stability. Capital budgets and overseas expansion will affect future earnings, but cost optimization and increased capacity utilization will support performance.
TSMC's Global Capacity Expansion Plan and AI Technology Leadership
TSMC announced that it will increase capital expenditure in 2026 to support multi-node capacity expansion, especially in AI and high-performance computing. The company plans to add 3nm technology production lines in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan, while optimizing mature node capacity and focusing on high value-added applications. TSMC emphasises that it will continue to invest in technology leadership to ensure that it meets customer needs while maintaining profitable growth and shareholder returns.
High Growth and Capital Expenditure Prospects Driven by Tri-Nano Technology
Discusses the strong demand for three-nanometer technology in high-performance computing and artificial intelligence applications, and the resulting gross margin improvement expectations. At the same time, sources of confidence in the upward revision of capital expenditure to the upper end of the annual guidance range were confirmed, namely, continued growth in market demand and accelerated adjustments to the supply chain.
TSMC's Response Strategy to Strong Demand and Capacity Challenges and Customer Churn
In the face of more than expected market demand, TSMC's accelerated capital expenditure and production expansion plan, especially to speed up the construction of clean rooms to alleviate capacity bottlenecks. At the same time, in response to customer churn, especially Tesla's self-developed chip project, TSMC emphasizes long-term technical leadership and customer trust as core competencies, and plans to win back the market by increasing production capacity to meet customer demand.
TSMC's Large Size Demand and Long-Term Capital Expenditure Planning for AI Customers
Discussed the competitive strategy in the face of AI customer demand for large-size wafers, TSMC said that it welcomes competition and actively develops technology to meet customer demand. At the same time, TSMC expects capital expenditures to increase significantly in the next three years to cope with the growth of the AI market and ensure close cooperation with suppliers to solve equipment supply challenges.
Discuss the relationship between revenue growth and capital expenditure and future market outlook.
The relationship between revenue growth and capital expenditure in the next few years is discussed, pointing out that revenue growth will exceed capital expenditure growth, and no sudden increase in capital intensity is expected. At the same time, the impact of higher memory prices on the end market and the potential for future market share growth are analyzed, emphasizing that customer demand is a key factor in planning capacity and capital expenditures.
Long-term gross margin and ROE target increase and Arizona plant strategic expansion discussion.
The dialogue revolved around the company's long-term gross margin and ROE targets raised to more than 56% and more than 20%, emphasizing that this target remains unchanged amid strong demand. At the same time, the increased strategic importance of the Arizona plant, including land acquisition to support multi-customer long-term needs, and increased confidence in the economics of the U.S. plant are discussed, and the cost structure is expected to improve.
TSMC Profitability Assessment and AI Accelerator Demand Forecasting
It discusses whether TSMC's profitability adequately reflects its value, and forecasts of future demand for AI accelerators. The strategy of win-win with customers was highlighted, noting that higher profitability is expected in the coming quarters as customer demand continues to grow. For the AI accelerator, despite facing strong demand, the long-term guidance remains unchanged and the forecast is for continued growth.
TSMC works with customers to plan advanced packaging capacity and technical challenges
This paper discusses how TSMC cooperates with customers to plan advanced packaging capacity, including cooperation with European suppliers and OSAT partners, and the technical challenges brought about by large-scale AI chips, such as wafer warpage, TSMC plans to solve these challenges through SOIC and other technologies by accumulating experience and technical advantages.
TSMC AI Revenue Definition and Future Outlook and CPU Market Strategy Discussion
TSMC's definition of AI revenue is discussed, including GPU, ASIC and HBM controller, but CPU is not included in the calculation. In view of the increasing role of CPU in AI infrastructure, the paper puts forward the idea of possible adjustment of AI revenue definition in the future, and discusses the historical data and future forecast. In addition, the dialogue also covered TSMC's competitive strategy in the LPU business, expressing confidence in its technological leadership and its determination to win back specific customer businesses.
要点回答
Q:What are the financial highlights for the first quarter of 2026?
A:The financial highlights for the first quarter of 2026 include a 8.4% sequential revenue increase in N.T. supported by strong demand for leading edge process technologies, a gross margin of 66.2%, an operating margin of 58.1%, and an earnings per share (EPS) of 22.0 T and a return on equity (ROE) of 40.5%.
Q:What is the revenue breakdown by process technology for the first quarter?
A:For the first quarter, the revenue breakdown by process technology is as follows: 3 nanometer contributed 25% of wafer revenue, 5 nanometer contributed 36%, and 7 nanometer contributed 13%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7 nanometers and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue.
Q:How is revenue distributed across different platforms?
A:Revenue distribution across different platforms is as follows: HPC (High Performance Computing) increased 20% to account for 61% of first quarter revenue, Smartphones decreased 11% to account for 26%, IOT (Internet of Things) increased 12% to account for 6%, automotive decreased 7% to account for 4%, and DC/EM (Data Center/Enterprise) increased 28% to account for 1%.
Q:What was the balance sheet position at the end of the first quarter?
A:At the end of the first quarter, the company had cash and marketable securities of 3.4 trillion NT (New Taiwan Dollars) or $106 billion US dollars, and current liabilities increased by 256 billion NT over the quarter.
Q:What is the projected financial guidance for the second quarter?
A:The projected financial guidance for the second quarter is a revenue between $39.0 billion and $40.2 billion, a gross margin between 65.5% and 67.5%, an operating margin between 56.5% and 58.5%, and a tax rate of around 20%. The company also expects to distribute a second quarter cash dividend of $13.0 billion.
Q:What factors might impact profitability in the second half of the year?
A:Profitability in the second half of the year may be impacted by the initial ramp up of the two nanometer technology, expected to dilute the growth margin by 2 to 3%, and the forecasted gross margin dilution from the ramp up of overseas fabs in the next several years, which may widen to 3 to 4% in the latter stages. Additionally, the potential impact from increased prices of certain chemicals and gases due to the recent situation in the middle east is also a risk.
Q:What is TSMC's strategy for materials and energy supply?
A:TSMC's strategy for materials and energy supply involves continuously developing multi-source supply solutions, building a diversified global supplier base, improving the local supply chain for specialty chemicals and gases, maintaining safety stock inventory, and working closely with suppliers to strengthen the resilience and sustainability of the supply chain. In terms of energy, TSMC is working with local power providers and the government to ensure a stable and sufficient energy supply, including securing LNG supply through at least May and working on further diversifying energy sources and implementing backup plans.
Q:What is the 2026 capital budget expectation?
A:The expectation for the 2026 capital budget is towards the high end of the range of between $52 and $56 billion US dollars, indicating a higher level of investment to support customers' growth and future growth opportunities.
Q:How is the demand outlook for the near term?
A:The demand outlook for the near term is supported by continued strong demand for leading edge process technologies. While the company is mindful of the impact of rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in consumer and price-sensitive markets, the robust demand for semiconductors, especially in AI-related applications, continues to provide a strong signal for future demand. Cloud service providers remain a key customer group with a very strong outlook, and the company is confident in the multi-year growth trend in AI and the fundamental demand for semiconductors.
Q:What are the expectations for revenue growth in US dollar terms for the full year 2026?
A:The expectation is for full year 2026 revenue to grow by above thirty percent in US dollar terms.
Q:What is the plan for capacity expansion and prioritization?
A:The plan is to prioritize land in Taiwan for the fast ramp of the newest node, due to the need for tight integration with R&D operations.
Q:When is the high volume manufacturing scheduled to begin and what applications are driving the demand?
A:High volume manufacturing is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025 with good yield, and the demand is driven by smartphone and HPCAI applications.
Q:What is the status of the TSMC's global capacity expansion plan?
A:The TSMC is executing a global capacity plan to support the robust multi-year pipeline of demand for chips, focusing on expanding capacity for advanced technologies.
Q:What are the details regarding the new 3 nanometer node being added in Taiwan?
A:A new three nanometer node is being added to the gigabyte cluster in Taiwan Science Park, with production scheduled for the first half of 2027.
Q:What is the production status and future plans for the 3 nanometer technology in Arizona and Japan?
A:The second flag in Arizona will utilize 3 nanometer technologies with structure already complete and volume production beginning in the second half of 2022. In Japan, the plan is to utilize 3 nanometer technology in their second flag with an evolving production schedule in 2028.
Q:How is the five nanometer tool being used to support capacity expansion?
A:The five nanometer tool is being converted to support the capacity expansion for the 3 nanometer node and to drive greater productivity across all manufacturing locations.
Q:What is the TSMC's strategy for managing capacity and customer relationships?
A:TSMC's strategy is to prioritize providing customers with advanced technologies and necessary capacity to unleash their innovations without picking or choosing among customers, even with tight capacity.
Q:What is the updated outlook for the mature node strategy and factory utilization?
A:The mature node strategy will focus on high yield capacity for specialized technologies. TSMC is increasing capacity in JASM 5 in Japan for simultaneous sensor application and ESSMC Germany for automotive and industrial use. The factory that is 6 inches 5 and 55 will focus on guarding line choice and using the available space to optimize support for leading edge applications.
Q:Can you discuss the progress and future plans for the 14nm node?
A:TSMC's second-generation 14nm node transistor structure, called 41, will deliver another node step form with performance and power benefits, targeting high-performance and energy-efficient computing. Production is scheduled for 2028, and the technology will further extend TSMC's technology leadership and capture growth opportunities.
Q:What factors are contributing to the robust demand for TSMC's chips?
A:The robust demand for TSMC's chips is driven by HPC and AI applications.
Q:How will the addition of the new 3 nanometer node impact the gross margin?
A:The m3 gross margin is expected to reach and cross the corporate gross margin level in the second half of this year. After the fully depreciation of the equipment, the margins are expected to be very high.
Q:What has caused the revision to the capex guidance and what is the level of confidence in the new range?
A:The revision to the capex guidance is due to very robust demand, especially from HPC and AI applications. TSMC has gained incremental confidence through robust demand and efforts to speed up equipment delivery. The capex is revised to the high end of the guidance range of 52 to 56 billion US dollars for the year.
Q:What is the strategy regarding the clean room space for the upcoming demand?
A:The strategy is to speed up the build-up of clean room and purchasing tools, working with construction and equipment suppliers to pull forward their forecasters schedule due to robust demand.
Q:When can the supply meet the current robust demand?
A:It will take two to three years to build a new fabrication facility, and even with the current schedule, it is believed that the supply will not meet the demand until 2027. However, due to the time it takes to build and ramp up a new fabrication facility, the supply is expected to remain tight, hence the plan to open three new fabs.
Q:What is the company's perspective on the competitor's initiative and its strategy to win back customers?
A:The company views competitors as formidable and does not believe there are any shortcuts. The fundamental rules of the industry remain unchanged, requiring technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust. They are working on how to capture every piece of the business that they can.
Q:Can the capacity ramp-up help win back customers who have been lost due to supply constraints?
A:The capacity ramp-up is seen as a crucial factor in winning back customers who have been lost due to supply constraints. The company is working hard to ensure they can meet customer demands as they build a new fabrication facility.
Q:What is the competitive threat from larger radical sizes and what is the strategy to address it?
A:The company acknowledges the competitive threat from larger radical sizes but is confident in their ability to supply large wafer sizes and work with customers on co-pass solutions. They are developing large vertical size packaging technologies and are committed to ensuring they can support customers with a reasonable capacity. They do not anticipate concerns from competition and are working to meet all customer demands.
Q:Can the company provide a long-term capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance for the next three years?
A:The company does not provide specific numbers for long-term capital expenditure but emphasizes the strong conviction in the AI trend and indicates that the capital expenditure in the next few years will be significantly higher than in the past three years, which had a total of $111 billion with a capex of $56 billion already this year.
Q:What is the expected revenue growth compared to capital expenditure (capex) growth for the coming few years?
A:The expected revenue growth will outpace the capex growth in the coming few years, and there is no expectation for a sudden surge in capital intensity.
Q:Will the company consider accelerating spending due to competitive threats and tight supply conditions?
A:The company will not accelerate spending merely due to competitive threats or tight supply conditions; capacity planning and capital expenditure are based on customer demand.
Q:How much upside potential is there for the top line in 2025 and what impact will the memory price hike have on the end market?
A:The exact upside potential for the top line in 2025 is not provided, but it is mentioned that the memory price hike has impacted the sensitive end market, particularly in PC and smartphone markets. However, the company continues to see strength in the smartphone segment, which is beneficial for TSMC.
Q:How has the robust demand and strong growth margins changed the company's view on the sustainable margin structure and long-term returns for the business?
A:The company has revised up its long-term margin targets and ROE targets, with an expectation of gross margins being higher than 56% through the cycle and ROE of high twenties through the cycle from 2024 to 2029. The strong demand and growth margins have led to these optimistic forecasts for the business.
Q:What is the plan for the Arizona site's capacity expansion and how confident is the company about matching Taiwanese production wafers' economics in the mid to long term?
A:The Arizona site is strategically important for the company's capacity expansion, and a large second piece of land has been acquired to build more fabs to meet multi-year demand from D, D, HUS customers. The company is confident in its ability to make significant progress in Arizona, improve cost structures, and match the economics of Taiwanese production wafers in the mid to long term.
Q:Does the current profitability fully reflect TSMC's value, and what profitability benchmark should investors look at for TSMC?
A:Investors should not expect TSMC to raise profitability targets significantly as it aims to maintain its partnership with customers, ensuring their success in the market while also growing its own capacity. TSMC does not adjust pricing dramatically and prefers to ensure a successful partnership with customers, which may result in higher profitability over time if customers succeed.
Q:How does TSMC plan and forecast AI-related demand and its impact on revenue growth?
A:TSMC forecasts AI-related revenue growth and incorporates metrics such as total consumption growth into its assumptions. The strong performance in the first quarter has led to accelerated consumption expectations. While the exact impact of AI on future revenue growth is not quantified, the company acknowledges the fast-paced development and incorporates it into their planning and forecasting processes.
Q:What is the updated long-term guidance on AI revenue considering the strong demand for AI accelerators?
A:The updated long-term guidance on AI revenue is not explicitly provided in the transcript; however, it is mentioned that there has been strong demand for AI accelerators and that the guidance is towards the higher end of the previously stated range.
Q:How does TSMC plan to collaborate with customers and advanced packaging partners?
A:TSMC plans to work with customers to plan front-end wafer capacity and collaborate on advanced packaging needs. TSMC aims to support customer demand for advanced packaging, including working with all set partners to potentially increase capacity. The company has a priority to support customers and is trying hard to increase its own capacity.
Q:What is TSMC's position on using SOIC or similar technologies to address technical challenges in advanced packaging?
A:TSMC faces technical challenges such as warping in advanced packaging, but has accumulated experience and continues to increase the die size while meeting all challenges. TSMC has confidence in its technical engineering capabilities and is working with customers to solve issues. However, specific mention of introducing SOIC or similar technologies is not directly addressed in the transcript.
Q:Will TSMC include CPUs in its definition of AI revenue, and how will this affect financial projections?
A:TSMC currently does not include CPUs in its AI revenue definition as it is unable to identify which CPUs are used in AI data centers. The company is not providing historical data with CPUs included nor giving an updated AI revenue growth capital projection to 2029, as it might consider including CPU in the future but does not have a clear position at the moment.
Q:What is TSMC's strategy for winning back LPU business from a competitor or capturing future differential business?
A:TSMC does not typically comment on specific customer products or business wins. However, it is mentioned that TSMC is working with its customer for the next generations of LPU products and is confident in its technology position. There is an indication that TSMC is striving to capture every piece of business, including LPU business that might have moved to competitors.
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