惠普 (HPQ.US) 2026年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
HP Inc. reported a 7% year-over-year revenue growth to $14.4 billion, driven by a 13% increase in personal systems revenue. Non-GAAP EPS grew 9% to 81 cents. The company is embedding AI into products and solutions, launching new AI-powered devices, and expanding partnerships. Facing rising memory costs, HP is implementing mitigation measures. The board is searching for a new CEO with a proven track record in managing complex businesses. HP expects revenue growth to moderate in the fiscal year's back half, maintaining print margins and committing to returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders over time.
会议速览
The conference call for HP Inc's first quarter 2026 earnings discusses forward-looking statements, risks, and uncertainties, emphasizing the availability of detailed information on the investor relations webpage. The call is moderated, with an upcoming Q&A session, and participants are reminded it's being recorded for replay purposes.
HP's new interim CEO introduces strategic direction, emphasizes trust, innovation, and AI integration in products. Highlights CEO search progress, company's market position, and commitment to value creation and customer satisfaction.
The company achieved steady top line growth in Q1, with revenue of $14.4 billion, up 7% year over year. PC market share gains, driven by the Windows 11 refresh cycle and AI PCs, contributed to double-digit revenue growth. Print segment saw momentum in consumer subscriptions and industrial print, aligning with the shift from analog to digital production. Non-GAAP EPS also showed positive results, reflecting strategic priorities and profitable unit placement.
HP discusses its progress in integrating AI into workplace technologies, enhancing device and print solutions, and addressing rising memory costs. Key initiatives include expanding AI capabilities in PCs and printers, launching the HP Digital Passport, and collaborating with OpenAI. The company is also implementing measures to mitigate the impact of increasing DRAM and NAND prices, aiming for market rationalization and proactive fleet management.
HP has secured long-term supplier agreements, optimized costs, and aligned product configurations with customer needs to mitigate commodity price volatility and trade uncertainty, leveraging its resilient supply chain and diversified profit sources for sustained growth.
HP evaluates the impact of recent Supreme Court tariffs, confident in its supply chain agility. The company focuses on cost mitigation and future strategies, expressing gratitude to shareholders and employees amidst uncertain trade environments.
Investor day, originally planned for April, has been postponed due to ongoing CEO transition. An updated date will be shared later. The meeting continues with a review of Q1 results and future outlook.
Achieved 7% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by personal systems and key growth areas. Implemented strategies to mitigate costs, including supply securing, demand shaping, and pricing actions. Delivered non-GAAP EPS at the top of guidance, with strong performance in APJ and premium categories. Highlighted advancements in AI PCs, advanced compute solutions, and workforce solutions.
The company achieved robust revenue growth, with a 16% increase in consumer revenue and 9% in commercial, outperforming expectations. It gained market share in premium segments, leveraging strategic pricing and demand management. AI initiatives are being scaled to enhance productivity and customer satisfaction, aligning with the future of work strategy. Supplies and key growth areas, including consumer subscriptions and industrial print, showed resilience. The operating margin remained strong, with a focus on generating significant annualized savings by fiscal 2028.
The company generated substantial cash flow, returning over $600 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Despite a slightly higher leverage ratio, the firm maintains sufficient cash reserves to address upcoming debt maturities and potential market challenges, including declining PC demand and rising commodity prices. Strategic pricing adjustments and cost reductions are being implemented to mitigate these risks.
Outlines strategies for revenue growth including pricing actions, share gains, and higher margin offerings, with a focus on maintaining profitability and market share in key segments despite challenges in the commodities market and hardware industry.
The company adjusts its earnings and cash flow guidance due to a tough operating environment, emphasizing efforts to mitigate headwinds. Memory cost increases are impacting financials, with details on securing long-term agreements discussed. The leadership team's strength is highlighted, especially in managing the memory situation, as the company remains confident in its long-term value creation strategy.
The dialogue discusses the significant increase in memory costs affecting PC bill of materials, with estimates rising from 15%-18% to 35% for the year, impacting Op margins. Strategies to mitigate these costs include product cost actions, company-wide cost reductions, and price increases, aiming to recover the impact over time.
A discussion unfolds around managing supply and portfolio to mitigate market disruptions, emphasizing strategies like silicon diversity, low memory configurations, cost actions, and design for cost initiatives. The dialogue also touches on pricing actions, demand shaping, and optimizing platform options to ensure customer value and budgetary needs are met. Quantifying a double-digit decline in PC units, with speculations on the extent and segments affected, is briefly addressed.
The dialogue aligns with industry expectations for double-digit revenue decline, yet highlights growth potential through Windows 11 momentum and increasing AI PC mix, anticipating pricing strategies to bolster revenue expansion.
Discussed strategies for managing fiscal year guidance amidst volatile memory costs, balancing demand and margin protection, and planning capital returns while considering leverage targets. Emphasized commitment to returning free cash flow to shareholders, despite operating above leverage targets, with actions already taken to repay debt and repurchase shares.
The dialogue discusses the observed moderation in customer demand, especially in the consumer segment, attributing the stronger-than-expected revenue growth to factors such as the Win 11 refresh and AIPC adoption. It highlights the increase in AIPC shipments and the positive demand in enterprise, particularly in Europe and Asia, linked to the Win 11 refresh cycle. The conversation also touches on pricing strategies and product mix shifts towards premium devices, contributing to higher average selling prices, with insights into future revenue outlook for both segments.
The dialogue discusses consistent customer demand patterns, especially for Windows 11 and Ipcs, with healthy channel inventory levels. It also addresses expectations for margins to remain below the long-standing range but recover over time, with confidence in eventual stability and improvement.
The dialogue covers the impact of memory pricing, noting sequential increases and future expectations, alongside discussions on supplier negotiations, supply assurance, and pricing strategies for the upcoming quarters.
The dialogue discusses strategies for securing and qualifying new suppliers to ensure stable supply chains, adjusting pricing strategies to align with commodity prices, and maintaining stable market pricing through channel partnerships.
Discusses adapting pricing strategies for various market routes, emphasizing demand elasticity and cost management to optimize customer configurations and system expenses.
Discusses achieving free cash flow targets through strategic Ps business growth and working capital management, and outlines levers for print margin expansion focusing on profitable growth, share gains, and cost reduction.
The board is seeking a CEO with a strong track record in shareholder and customer value, adeptness in navigating complex environments, and experience in global markets, aiming to elevate HP's strategic position.
The dialogue discusses the significant impact of memory on the PC segment's GP dollars, with 35% attributed to it, while highlighting the company's diversification into higher-margin businesses and workforce solutions to ensure sustainable growth.
Discusses strategies for managing price increases on PCs, emphasizing the importance of demand elasticity, total cost of ownership, and the impact of AI and Windows 11 on customer value and demand.
The dialogue explores the relationship between the PC market's demand fluctuations and the growth potential in peripherals and printing sectors. It highlights that post-refresh cycles, particularly after a major operating system update like Windows in 2025, create significant opportunities for peripheral attachment growth due to budget reallocation and increased demand. The discussion also touches on the potential for market share gains in these categories, which are expected to drive growth in peripheral attachments despite any weaknesses in PC unit shipments.
The dialogue highlights HP's confidence in gaining market share in print and PC segments, particularly in high-value categories and key geographies. It also discusses the company's focus on cost-saving measures and AI enablement to maintain competitive pricing and achieve operational efficiency, aiming for flat Opex in FY 26 and significant savings by FY 28.
HP discusses the impact of volatile memory costs on their PC build materials, detailing their mitigation strategies and focus on premium market share growth. The company outlines expectations for higher-than-normal revenue in the second quarter, driven by premium categories, Win 11 refresh, and price adjustments, with plans to maintain growth into the back half of the year.
要点回答
Q:What are the main focus areas for the company in terms of strategy and cost management?
A:The company's focus areas include pre-execution of mitigation plans to offset the impact of memory costs, accelerating company-wide cost actions, and continuing to execute against their future of work strategy.
Q:What is the company's stance on memory costs and how are they managing this challenge?
A:The company acknowledges the challenging memory cost situation and is not backing away from longstanding commitments despite headwinds. They are managing this challenge by focusing on securing supply, shaping demand and product configuration, implementing targeted cost reductions, and taking pricing actions within their control and continuing these efforts in future quarters.
Q:What are the recent achievements and performance highlights of the HP company?
A:HP is pleased with its first quarter results and solid progress in delivering against financial commitments. It achieved better-than-expected top-line growth, with year-over-year revenue growth of 7% and an increase in constant currency. The company drove non-GAAP EPS at the top of its guidance range, maintained strong expense management, and saw non-GAAP operating expenses decrease year over year. Additionally, HP grew revenue across all regions, with strength in personal systems and key growth areas, and improved its non-GAAP operating margin.
Q:What are the financial expectations for the upcoming fiscal year and the second quarter?
A:The company expects to drive revenue growth in the fiscal year through pricing actions, share gains in premium categories, and increased attach of higher-margin offerings. For the second quarter, it anticipates above-seasonal revenue performance due to pricing actions, with revenue growth moderating in the back half of the year. The company models a range of outcomes factoring in the potential doubling of memory prices and expects the PSO rate to be below its long-term range. In print, it expects the market to decline but aims to drive growth in big tanks and industrial print. The company expects non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share for Q2 to be in the range of 70 to 76 cents, and annual non-GAAP earnings per share guidance remains between $2.90 and $3.20.
Q:What is the projected increase in memory costs for the fiscal year and what measures are in place to offset these costs?
A:The projected increase in memory costs is significant, with a 100% sequential increase forecasted for the fiscal year. To offset these costs, the company has taken measures such as product cost actions, company-wide cost actions, and price increases to recover the full impact over time.
Q:What impact are higher memory costs expected to have on the company's profit margins, and what strategies are being employed to manage this?
A:Higher memory costs are expected to result in Ps Op margins being below the company's long-standing range for the remainder of the year. To manage this, the company is implementing a combination of product cost actions, company-wide cost actions, and price increases. The strategies also include demand shaping and the introduction of low-memory configurations to align with available supply and offer customers the best value within their budgetary needs.
Q:How is the company addressing the potential for demand destruction and margin protection in light of the uncertain memory cost environment?
A:The company is addressing the potential for demand destruction and margin protection by continuing to provide strong value to the customer and protecting margins. This is being done through managing supply and portfolio with long-term agreements (LTAs) to protect supply coverage, leveraging a broad portfolio for silicon diversity, introducing low-memory configurations, and reducing costs across commodity baskets. Additionally, they are implementing a strong design for cost initiative and pricing actions to drive a favorable mix. The company is also focusing on demand shaping and optimizing platform and configuration options to ensure customers get the best value within their budgetary needs.
Q:What is the expected percentage decline in PC units for the year, and which segments might decline more significantly?
A:The company expects PC units to decline by double digits for the year, in line with industry trends. While specific segments that will decline more significantly were not quantified, the general expectation is for a double-digit decline across the board.
Q:How does the company approach full-year guidance given the uncertainties related to memory costs beyond the current quarter?
A:Given the uncertainty of memory costs beyond the current quarter, the company is taking a prudent view by assuming that the revenue strength from the first half of the fiscal year will moderate. The full-year guidance incorporates an expected sequential increase in memory costs, higher mitigations, and an expectation of print margins at the high end of the long-standing range. The company aims to offset headwinds by executing its playbooks and pulling all levers. They also consider the time it takes for price increases to fully implement and expected unit demand. Despite these challenges, the company anticipates being at the lower end of its guidance range.
Q:How does the company manage capital returns and shareholder returns while balancing its leverage target and buyback activities?
A:The company remains committed to returning 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over time, subject to maintaining gross leverage below two times and having higher return opportunities. With leverage currently slightly above two times, the company has managed to return a significant amount to shareholders, including $600 million in the first quarter, with $300 million in share repurchase. The company ensures it can repay debt as it comes due and continues to return capital to shareholders as long as it does not exceed its leverage targets.
Q:What is the expected impact of memory pricing on the company's margins for the rest of the year?
A:The company expects its margins for the rest of the year to be below its long-standing range, but it is not changing its long-standing guidance range for margins and anticipates returning to those long-standing range over time. However, the timeline for this return is uncertain due to the fluid environment.
Q:What were the actual memory pricing impacts experienced in the quarter?
A:The actual memory cost increases in the first quarter were roughly in line with expectations outlined at the beginning of the year. The significant price increases are more forward-looking than backward, and the quarter saw prices up 100% sequentially, from Q1 to Q2.
Q:What are the company's expectations for memory pricing increases for the remainder of the year?
A:The company notes that current prices are up about 100% sequentially, from Q1 to Q2, and expects further increases in the latter part of the year, although it does not expect to reach peak pricing by Q1 to Q2.
Q:Are memory negotiations with suppliers still open, and what has changed in their frequency?
A:The company has good relationships with longstanding suppliers and believes it has the necessary supply to meet plans and execute strategy. Negotiations for pricing with suppliers are ongoing on a rolling basis to lock in prices and help shape demand and pricing strategy.
Q:How does the company view potential new suppliers in terms of local sourcing and long-term supply?
A:The company has secured the necessary supply for the remainder of the year and is working to add new suppliers while maintaining good relationships with existing ones. It is also accelerating engineering efforts to qualify new commodities across different platforms, focusing on regulatory and compliance needs, and seeking to maximize available supply for customers.
Q:How does the company manage its pricing strategy in response to changes in commodity prices?
A:The company uses different pricing strategies for various business segments and adjusts prices accordingly, reflecting market conditions. It is sensitive to demand elasticity, works with customers to find optimal configurations, and utilizes workforce experience and management software to inform decisions on pricing.
Q:What factors enable the free cash flow generation target despite profit growth being back half-heavy?
A:The free cash flow generation target is supported by a strong performance in the first quarter and expectations for decent free cash flow in the second quarter as well. Growth from the PS business, which has a negative cash conversion cycle, and offsetting increases in inventory with the growth in PS are key factors.
Q:What levers are in place to enable print margins to expand?
A:Print margins are expected to expand by operating at the high end of the long-standing range and focusing on profitable growth, such as shifting to a business model with upfront profits, increasing subscriptions, gaining share in high-value categories, and reducing the cost structure.
Q:What is the process and desired profile for the new CEO?
A:A search committee has been established, the board is looking for a CEO who can advance the company's strategy, with a proven track record of shareholder value delivery, ability to navigate complex environments, and experience in global and multi-state business operations.
Q:What is the anticipated increase in PSC GP dollars for fiscal year 2026?
A:35% of the PSC GP dollars for the year of fiscal 2026 are anticipated to be from memory, up from the typical 15 to 18 percent.
Q:What percentage of P margins come from businesses not reliant on memory?
A:A third of the P margins come from businesses not reliant on memory, including higher-margin attached business and workforce solutions.
Q:What factors influence the demand for PCs and how is HP ensuring that the price increase does not significantly impact demand?
A:Factors influencing the demand include customer use case, customer type, Windows 11 and AI PCs, productivity gains, seamless collaboration, reliable security, compliance, and an increasing number of ISVs developing applications using local AI. HP is ensuring the price increase does not impact demand by adjusting the demand to price elasticity constant and tailwinds such as Windows 11 and AI PCs.
Q:What correlations exist between the PC market demand and the peripheral or print market opportunity?
A:Post-refresh cycles, especially with Windows 11, there is a historical correlation between PC refresh cycles and the peripheral business. This is due to budgetary needs from previous years being used for PC buying, leading to an opportunity for growth in the attachment peripheral business.
Q:Where does HP see confidence in share gains, and what is the strategy for continued success?
A:HP feels confident in share gains in print in developed markets and has been regaining share in high-value office categories. They are focused on product innovation, cost reduction, and driving strong growth in identified categories. They aim to remain true to their strategy and focus on value and AI PC share gains.
Q:How is HP managing expenses, and what are the expectations for Opex for the remainder of the year?
A:HP is managing expenses by focusing on driving expense reductions to offset investments. They expect Opex for FY 26 to be roughly flat year over year in dollars, with a transformation program aimed at delivering gross run rate savings. Efforts are being made to accelerate the program and drive additional cost actions to mitigate increasing headwinds.
Q:How has the memory cost volatility impacted the guidance, and what is the current assessment?
A:Memory costs are higher now, and the company is focused on mitigating impacts through various actions. Given the volatility, they are not quantifying the impacts, but the current assessment has been included in their outlook.
Q:How would you characterize the normal seasonality for the fiscal second quarter in terms of TCS and print business?
A:For the fiscal second quarter, TCS revenue is expected to be higher than seasonal due to the company's plans to take share in premium categories, increasing contributions from the peripherals and solutions business, and price increases to offset the rising impact of memory. Win 11 refresh continues to drive demand, and overall P revenue is expected to be stronger than normal, to moderate in the back half.

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