Tempus AI (TEM.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Tempest AI's Q4 2025 conference call showcased strong financial growth, including a 29% increase in diagnostics and a 69% rise in licensing. The company highlighted the rapid expansion of MRD testing and new projects like Page Predict. Emphasizing its unique position in AI and healthcare, Tempest outlined strategic priorities for 2026, focusing on oncology and data businesses, while aiming to boost ASP and gross margins. The call concluded with investor Q&A, reaffirming the company's commitment to expanding its testing portfolio and leveraging AI for improved healthcare outcomes.
会议速览
Tempest AI's Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights and Financial ReviewTempest AI's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results were discussed, emphasizing forward-looking statements, risks, and non-GAAP measures. The earnings release, overview, and presentation were made available on the IR website.
Tempest's Exceptional Growth in 2025 Driven by Diagnostics and Licensing BusinessesDiscussed Tempest's strong 2025 performance with diagnostics business accelerating and licensing business growing 69% in the quarter. Projected 40% growth for the next quarter, with total contract value exceeding $1.1 billion and net revenue retention at 126%. Guided to $1.59 billion for 2026, with positive adjusted EBITDA and a strong balance sheet, positioning the company for a phenomenal 2026.
AI's Role in Healthcare: Protecting Data Value and Pharma CollaborationDiscussion highlights Tempus' unique position in AI-driven healthcare, leveraging proprietary data and distribution networks to train models and deliver real-time insights. Emphasizes the value proposition for pharma clients, showcasing success stories and accelerating data business growth.
Strategic Value of Advanced Diagnostics: Enhancing Physician Insights and Patient OutcomesThe dialogue underscores the strategic importance of advanced diagnostics, highlighting technologies like Page Predict and Immune Profile Score. These innovations enhance physician insights by correlating data from digitized pathology slides and next-generation sequencing, improving test accuracy and speed. The discussion also touches on the acceleration of these capabilities through foundation model efforts, aiming to significantly enhance diagnostic precision and patient care in the coming years.
Analysis of ASP Growth Drivers in Q4 and Projections to 2026The discussion focuses on ASP growth, highlighting the transition to FDA-approved versions, upcoming contributions from Xf liquid biopsy, and improvements in commercial payer reimbursements, with Xt Cdx being the major driver. The strategy outlines achieving over $500 ASP upside by 2026.
Foundation Model Progress & Compute Expansion for Enhanced Diagnostics and Data InsightsUpdate on the foundation model's successful benchmark achievements, current testing by AstraZeneca, and plans for enhanced compute power with additional clusters. The model's potential to catalyze growth in diagnostics and data business through smarter tests and enriched client insights is emphasized. Assumptions for volume growth across oncology and hereditary areas in the guidance are being considered.
Oncology and Hereditary Diagnostics: Volume Growth and Future OutlookThe oncology business shows strong growth with a 29% increase in Q4, expected to continue. Hereditary diagnostics anticipate a slowdown due to lapping share gains, with lumpiness in 2026's growth rates. A high teens growth rate is still achievable, potentially starting lower in Q1 and picking up throughout the year.
MRD Test Sales Potential: Current Growth vs. Future ExpansionThe dialogue discusses the current sales potential of MRD tests, highlighting a 5006% quarter-over-quarter growth with a constrained sales effort. It estimates that if all sales personnel were selling MRD, volumes could increase 20 times. The conversation also touches on the strategic timing for fully unblocking sales, considering reimbursement and market readiness, anticipating significant growth post-ungating.
Platform Advantages Drive Growth in Oncology DiagnosticsExplains how integrating clinical and molecular data across various diagnostic assays fuels growth, emphasizing solid tumor testing's faster expansion. Highlights market growth and competitive edge in sequencing technologies.
Strong Bookings Drive 2026 Revenue Guidance in Data and ServicesHigh visibility into 2026 revenue, thanks to robust bookings, supports guidance. Data licensing dominates, with ancillary products contributing. Systemic growth drivers expected to sustain momentum.
Oncology Volume Growth Durability and CGP Trends in 2025The dialogue discusses the durability of high oncology volume growth through 2025, noting steady growth in both liquid and tissue CGP, with liquid slightly outpacing. It highlights Xf's consistent contribution to volumes, anticipates 25% year-over-year growth, and emphasizes robust expansion in core oncology and data businesses, aiming for over 30% growth.
Data-Driven Growth Post-Ambre Acquisition in Oncology TestingReflects on Ambre's acquisition, highlighting data integration's impact on expanding oncology testing services, driving business growth through enhanced data capabilities.
Strategic Acquisition of Ambry for Comprehensive Healthcare Solutions and Data-Driven ResearchThe acquisition of Ambry was driven by the need for a comprehensive testing solution, mirroring the convenience of platforms like Amazon. It also aims to support data-driven research and accelerate drug development, addressing the significant challenge of cancer mortality.
Updates on MRD Assay Reimbursement and Performance of Next-Gen Tumor Naive ProductsDiscussions revolve around the status of first-generation CRC assay reimbursement at Moldex and the expected performance benefits of next-generation tumor naive assays. Emphasis is placed on the superiority of tumor-informed products in colorectal cancer, with tumor naive solutions potentially excelling in subtypes like lung where tissue is less accessible. The company is pivoting towards developing a more advanced version of the assay, leveraging the success of its current tumor naive product.
Prioritizing Technology and AI in Sales and Diagnostic StrategiesA discussion on maintaining the current sales force structure, emphasizing technology and AI integration, and prioritizing data-driven decisions for growth.
Gross Margin Projections Amid Rising ASPs and 200 Test OutlookA query on gross margin expectations amidst ASP increases and a 200 test outlook prompts a discussion on cost implications and potential offsets, with a focus on achieving genomic gross margins above 70%. The conversation explores the correlation between ASP growth and margin expansion, considering various factors that may influence this relationship.
Annual Review of ASP Increase's Impact on Gross Profit and Panel ExpansionDiscussion focused on how increases in ASP affect gross profit, emphasizing the balance between maximizing profits and expanding panel sizes for patient and doctor benefits. The company reassesses its approach annually, considering both diagnostics and data businesses. The call concluded with a forward look to the next quarterly update.
要点回答
Q：What was the performance of Tempest's core business in terms of revenue growth?
A：The core business of Tempest saw a total revenue growth of over 20% when considering the impact of the acquisition of AstraZeneca, with much higher increases evident in the diagnostics business.
Q：How did the diagnostics business perform in the fourth quarter of 2025?
A：The diagnostics business experienced unit growth of 29% in oncology, with a notably higher growth rate of 56% quarter over quarter for MRD. The business is accelerating and performing above expectations.
Q：What are the key figures for the licensing business and applications in the quarter?
A：The licensing business or insights grew by 69% in the quarter, with a projected growth of roughly 40% and a total contract value exceeding $1.1 billion. Net revenue retention was reported at 126%, and the company guided to $1.59 billion, in line with their 25% long-term growth expectations, with an estimated $65 million in positive adjusted EBITDA.
Q：What differentiates Tempus in the AI space, particularly regarding data?
A：Tempus is uniquely positioned with access to large-scale proprietary data comprising over 450 PB of connected multimodal data from its diagnostics business. This allows for real-time insights and tracking of patient responses, providing a unique data set to train AI models and deliver insights to doctors through a real-time connection to over 5500 hospitals.
Q：Why is it challenging for competitors to replicate Tempus's data business?
A：Competing with Tempus's data business is described as an enormous undertaking requiring contracts with providers, data acquisition, issue resolution, data structuring, and the development of technology to make the data useful. Given the scale and uniqueness of the data, as well as the established connections with hospitals and oncologists, it is challenging for others to replicate Tempus's offering.
Q：What are the signs that customers are achieving better results with Tempus's data and technology?
A：Signs that customers are achieving better results include the continued renewal of contracts by the largest clients, the extension of those contracts, and the acceleration of growth in the data business. Real value is being demonstrated where clients can use Tempus data and technology to be more intelligent in advancing assets, refining early-stage discovery projects, designing clinical trials, recruiting patients at the right times, and getting drugs approved and in the market faster.
Q：What is the strategic value of the Page Project and how is it expected to contribute to revenue in the future?
A：The strategic value of the Page Project is discussed in terms of its potential to add significant capability once samples are fully processed. While not expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue in the current year, the extent of its future contribution is tied to how often it can be used as a predictive tool. The project's capability to enhance strategic decision-making within the diagnostics business is highlighted.
Q：What are the key benefits of the technology mentioned that drives growth in the company's diagnostics products?
A：The key benefits of the technology include providing contextualization to diagnostics and resulting in stronger insights from pathology slides, which allows the company to predict mutations. This technology offers an advantage over competitors by generating insights even when sequencing fails and by delivering results faster.
Q：How does the company's technology provide an advantage in predictive diagnostics and what is its impact on sequencing results?
A：The company's technology provides an advantage in predictive diagnostics by being able to digitize pathology slides and generate insights that predict mutations in sequencing results. This capability, along with faster delivery of results, makes the company's tests more accurate and quicker than competitors, even in the face of sequencing errors.
Q：What is the company's strategy for the development of the foundation model and how is it expected to perform in 2026?
A：The company's strategy for the development of the foundation model includes hitting certain benchmarks set by AstraZeneca and submitting the model for testing. A second cluster with more compute power has been procured to run additional models. The model's performance is expected to be great, and it will continue to drive growth by enhancing the company's diagnostics tests and offering value in the data business.
Q：What are the current volume growth assumptions for the company's diagnostics business, particularly in oncology and hereditary testing?
A：Oncology had 29% growth in Q4, and the first quarter is off to a good start. On the hereditary side, volume growth was steady in Q4 as per the company's previous discussions. The company anticipates that the hereditary growth rates will moderate as they lap some of the share gains and may experience some lumpiness. The long-term growth rate is still expected to be in the high teens.
Q：What are the growth rates and potential of the company's MRD offering?
A：The company's MRD offering showed a quarter over quarter growth of 5006%, constrained by a small percentage of the sales force currently selling it. If the sales effort were fully unblocked, it is suggested that the growth could be 20 times higher.
Q：What factors will influence the company's ability to expand its market presence?
A：The expansion of the company's market presence will be influenced by factors such as reimbursement and timing. The company plans to initially ungate and enter the market intelligently, unlike other companies that had to wait for broader coverage to make financial sense.
Q：What is the company's strategy for growth across its various products?
A：The company's strategy for growth is centered around its platform advantage, which includes contextualizing diagnostics by combining clinical and molecular data, leading to comprehensive profiles and insights. This core technology advantage is expected to drive the growth of all five of their tests: DNA profiling (Xt), RNA profiling (XR), liquid biopsies (XSF), hematology (XH), and whole exome sequencing (Xe).
Q：How is the market for sequencing expected to grow and how does the company plan to capture additional market share?
A：The market for sequencing is expected to grow as sequencing becomes more prevalent among ordering physicians and patients. The company plans to capture additional market share with its data advantage, which allows it to provide insights that other competitors may not be able to offer.
Q：What is the projected growth rate for the data and services revenue in 2026 and how does the company expect to manage growth?
A：The projected growth rate for data and services revenue in 2026 is 40%. The company expects to manage this growth by having visibility into the revenue build for 2026, with greater than 1.1 billion already committed for that year, and by having strong bookings in the year that generate revenue within the same year.
Q：What should be expected in terms of volume growth in clinical oncology and the breakdown between liquid and tissue CGP?
A：The company is expected to see durable volume growth in clinical oncology throughout the year, with growth rates continuing from the exit of 2025. The growth is anticipated to be consistent across various products, with MRD growing faster than the rest of the portfolio. The company expects strong growth across both x.t. and Xf, with Xf possibly growing slightly faster than solid. The product mix is consistent, with a view that Xf will continue to be about 25% of total clinical oncology volume.
Q：What are the growth rates of the company's data business and core oncology diagnostic business?
A：The core oncology diagnostic business is growing 30% or more, while the data business is also experiencing growth, although the exact rate is not specified.
Q：What has been the long-term growth trend between liquid and solid testing?
A：The long-term growth trend indicates that liquid testing is growing faster than solid testing.
Q：Why was the acquisition of Ambry Genetics important, and what is its impact on the company's data business?
A：The acquisition of Ambry Genetics was important to broaden the comprehensive nature of the company's testing compendium, with a focus on a strong hereditary profile. This has led to growth in the data business by providing a broader menu of testing services to meet the increasing demand for comprehensive solutions among clients.
Q：How does the company view the future of personalized cancer treatment in relation to sequencing?
A：The company envisions a future similar to online shopping with a single platform providing a comprehensive range of sequencing services, aimed at managing patient risk, treatment, and monitoring post-treatment. This approach is anticipated to become the standard as more providers look for ways to manage and mitigate treatment risks and accelerate drug development.
Q：What trends are influencing the de-identification of patient data and its usage in research and drug development?
A：There is a growing trend of providers and institutions wanting to contribute de-identified patient data to platforms like the company's to accelerate research and drug development. This is driven by the need to help stop waste and ensure better drugs are developed and brought to market faster.
Q：What are the challenges and expectations regarding the first-generation CRC assay and the next-generation tumor naive assay?
A：The first-generation CRC assay is currently facing challenges due to issues with reimbursement and is not expected to be a significant driver of change due to the evolving nature of the field. The company is focusing on the next-generation tumor naive assay, which is expected to offer performance enhancements over the existing landscape. However, the timeline for these products to significantly impact the market is uncertain.
Q：Has there been any reorganization of the sales organization this year, and what are the company's investment priorities?
A：The company has not made any big moves to reorganize the sales force, but it did reorganize early in the year. The investment priorities remain the same: to bring the benefits of technology and AI broadly to diagnostics and ensure that decisions in clinics or for research are data-driven. The company expects to continue these priorities given its rapid business growth.
Q：What is the expected gross margin for the genomic side of the business, and how does it relate to ASPs?
A：The company anticipates that an increase in average selling prices (ASPs) would lead to an increase in gross margin. They reassess and adjust the size of the panels based on cost changes and technological advancements to benefit patients and doctors. The company is less reliant on maximizing gross profit within the diagnostics product line but still expects some increases in gross profit as ASPs rise. The exact relationship between changes in ASPs and gross margins is not specified.
