A：In the past few years, the growth rate of construction in progress of listed companies after excluding financial real estate has shown a continuous downward trend, while the growth rate of inventory has increased slightly. Through the analysis of the nested relationship between the capacity cycle and the inventory cycle, we believe that the anti-roll phenomenon will improve significantly in 2026, especially in the second half of 2026, the signs of accelerated liquidation will be greatly improved, and the inventory cycle may also open a new round of replenishment.

A：In 2025, due to the strong promotion of fiscal debt, the growth rate of corporate and residential demand deposits improved significantly, especially the rapid recovery of corporate demand deposits from the sharp negative increase at the beginning of the year to a positive level of around ten. This indicates that cash flow has been repaired, which in turn has led to a small decline in the balance sheet of residents, with the stabilization and recovery of asset growth playing a key role.

A：GDP growth is expected to remain stable in 2026, comparable to 2025, with a high probability of around 4.8 to 5 per cent, and showing a trend of year-on-year improvement. While the growth rate of social financing is likely to remain low and volatile at around 8%, the private sector is expected to continue to repair cash flow, especially as the real estate cycle stabilizes and fiscal expectations continue to drive debt transfer support this judgment.

A：Inflation is expected to resonate throughout the year, with CPI, core CPI and PPI year-on-year indicators oscillating upward. Specifically, the year-on-year pivot of CPI is approaching 1%, and the core CPI is further repaired to about 1 to 1.5; while the year-on-year rebound of PPI is larger, which is expected to rise to more than 0 from the level of-2% at the beginning of the year, especially in the first half of the year.

A：Fiscal spending is expected to remain positive in 2026, with the narrow target deficit rate remaining at around 4 per cent and the broad deficit rate remaining at around 10.2 per cent. Corporate profit growth is expected to bottom out, especially in the midstream manufacturing industry to repair faster, while consumer demand will reflect demand differentiation, but optimistic about the second half of the consumer demand repair, especially the repair of essential consumption and service consumption.

A：It is expected that the U.S. economic growth rate will remain slightly upward in 2026. On the one hand, due to the global positive macro policy combination and the U.S. adopting loose fiscal policy and matching monetary policy before the mid-term elections; On the other hand, the impact of US tariff measures on small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing and service industries will fade in 2026, so the real GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate slightly from 2% to 2.3.

A：It is believed that China's transformation bull is far from over, and there is still room for the stock market to rise in 2026. The reason lies in the opportunities brought about by capital market reform and economic structural transformation, as well as the resilience of China's macro-economy. It is expected that the earnings growth rate of listed companies will be steadily repaired in 2026, the ROE index will also bottom out, while the ERP index is expected to further explore, enhance the valuation of A- shares. Industry configuration, focus on low valuations and clear business climate clues to the sector.

A：The full-year style is biased towards large-cap growth or mid-cap growth, and the industrial direction takes into account the technology industry and manufacturing boom. Excess liquidity indicators show that the style is biased towards mid-cap growth and large-cap growth, while the proportion of high-growth sub-sectors is expected to increase, meaning that the market will pay more attention to the direction of boom growth. At the beginning of the year, the market may be subject to agitation. Industry configuration is optimistic about the development prospects of AI areas, especially overseas chains and domestic chains.

A：In 2020, there will be a further gap between supply and demand in the AI hardware chain, such as optical chips, copper foil, power and storage, in addition to optical modules. At the new pattern level, we will focus on the new pattern of the model and chip side, such as the pull effect of the Google chain, and the new pattern of the supply chain, that is, whether domestic enterprises can cut into the overseas hardware computing chain.

A：Industrial metals have formed a huge industrial trend due to their global debt cycle overlaid with supply contraction and strategic demand. In the context of the current fiscal and monetary easing policy, rising interest rates have led to the favor of real assets such as precious metals, while the continued contraction of supply and the new demand brought about by the wave of new energy and AI have put industrial metals in the midst of a wave of large industries.

A：In the new economic cycle, bullish on the core and chemical sectors. The battery core is the clearest direction of the current anti-internal rolling fundamentals. The power equipment industry has come out of the trough and the profit growth rate has rebounded. In the chemical industry, after supply optimization, it is expected to enter a new cycle of production capacity in 2026, ushering in double opportunities for cycle recovery and industrial upgrading.

A：Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has shown a volatile trend, the future macro environment is judged to be the index can continue to rise, from liquidity-driven to liquidity and performance-driven. Optimistic about the three main lines, four industry directions, including AI computing hardware, non-ferrous (especially industrial metals), manufacturing boom in the recovery of the battery and chemical.

A：Overseas, real inflation in the United States has not fallen significantly, the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited; the labor market is slowly cooling and the unemployment rate is slowly rising; when the Fed chairman changes, there is expected to be limited room for interest rate cuts, and Powell is more likely to stay in office, which will have a lasting impact on monetary policy decisions. On the domestic front, the economy remains resilient but divided, with a GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 in 2026 and a corresponding outlook for other economic data.

A：We expect CPI to pick up in 2026, but the rebound is limited. On the service price side, historically its year-on-year performance has been stable, with seasonal fluctuations only around the Chinese New Year and few trending upward or downward, so we believe that service inflation will be essentially flat in 2026 and 2025.

A：Every five years, the country will revisit the CPI and PPI to adjust the weights, especially if the weights rise due to price reasons. In 2025, the rise in gold prices led to a rise in jewellery prices, significantly boosting the CPI sub-item. However, in 2026, although the price of gold continues to rise, the impact on CPI will be weakened because it is based on the previous round of data revision.

A：In 2025, commodity prices rebounded on the CPI side due to the two new policy subsidies, such as the growth rate of household appliances from-5% to positive 5%. However, this year's national supplement remains unchanged, last year's more than part of the price will be erased in this year's year-on-year, so the commodity part of the CPI has a negative drag.

A：In 2026, we believe that investment is the key point, the national policy statement clearly promote investment to stop the decline and stabilize, emphasizing the importance of investment to increase, and from expanding efficient investment to direct stabilization. At the same time, the changes in the unemployment rate show that the unemployment rate of the migrant population survey is low, and the unemployment rate of the local population is relatively high. To solve the employment problem, it is still necessary to use work relief as the main method.

A：Government bonds are expected to move forward this year, bond issuance will be faster than last year, and supply and demand pressures will increase. At the beginning of the year, the finance introduced new policies, focusing on similar monetary policies, with interest discounts on loans in specific areas, ranging from 10 billion to 700 billion; in terms of monetary policy, the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools has been lowered at the beginning of the year, but the total The impact is limited, and it is expected that there is still room for interest rate cuts throughout the year, but due to the problem of bank net interest margins, loose monetary policy may lag behind economic recovery.

A：In the long term, the bond market is likely to face a state of interest rate debt crediting, as tighter monetary policy and rising bond yields contradict each other, making it difficult for interest rates to move downward. The bond market will mainly trade supply and demand, especially the new government debt component, and the imbalance between supply and demand may pose risks. The solution may be for the central bank to systematically purchase ultra-long-term and long-term government bonds and local government bonds, but due to the historical difficulty of intervention, the market may only intervene when risks arise.

A：The low allocation of residential liquid assets is likely to increase the allocation to the stock market as deposit rates fall and risk appetite increases. The contribution of corporate earnings growth to market growth is expected to increase, especially given that corporate earnings are currently at cyclical lows, and earnings growth is likely to rise in the future as global economic conditions improve and liquidity increases. Therefore, future market trends and changes in residential asset allocation still need to pay attention to market performance and development.

A：The low earnings growth rate in the past few years is mainly due to the structural transformation of China's economy, which is reflected in the sharp decline in demand-side fixed asset investment and consumption, in which the growth rate of fixed asset investment even reached a historical low of negative 12%, while the growth rate of total social retail sales fell to 2.9. Although the production resilience of supply-side enterprises is strong and the overall economic growth is supported by strong exports, the GDP growth rate of the secondary industry is only 4.2, which reflects the greater pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises.

A：There is uncertainty as to whether the drag effect of real estate on the economy will persist. During the 20 years of Japan's disappearance, house prices continued to fall, but later, due to the pull of new industrial sectors, fixed asset investment and consumption gradually stabilized. At present, China may also be in a similar stage. The initial stage of weak house prices has obvious drag on consumption and investment. However, with the economic restructuring and the emergence of new growth points, this drag may weaken or even disappear in the future.

A：Focus on three aspects: first, whether the production side of the physical start-up has improved, with reference to the March to May 2026 high-frequency production data; second, whether the financing side of private credit improved year-on-year, including real estate loans, consumer loans and other project loans; third, whether the investment side of the manufacturing investment can show signs of stopping the decline and picking up.

A：The clue to the steady recovery of consumption lies in the pull of new industrial sectors such as manufacturing, and the strong export drives employment, thus playing a supporting role in consumption. In terms of investment, manufacturing investment is expected to stop falling and rebound, because industrial land planning has bottomed out in the second quarter of 2025, with a lag of about one year. It is expected that the middle age is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026. Macroeconomic expectations in 2026 are expected to maintain a repair trend, corporate earnings are gradually picking up, macro liquidity is abundant, the domestic science and technology industry is resonating, emerging industries are growing rapidly, and the international competitive advantage of China's manufacturing industry continues to expand. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the internationalization of the RMB and policies to encourage medium and long-term funds to enter the market, the market still has upward momentum. At the same time, factors such as the sinking of risk-free interest rates and the acceleration of capital market reform have supported the market.

A：Molecular-end corporate earnings are the focus of attention, optimistic about global industrial trends (such as AI technology, robotics, medical technology, commercial aerospace, etc.) and domestic demand improvement (consumer stocks, midstream manufacturing, upstream resources) two major directions.

A：The technology manufacturing sector remains the main track, but the focus will shift from upstream to midstream and downstream. Optimistic about the investment opportunities at the application level of AI terminals such as smart driving, it is believed that the computing infrastructure will eventually be driven to the terminal application, so more optimistic about the development prospects of smart driving and other tracks.

A：At present, I don't have much configuration for the lithium-ion energy storage sector, although the sector has performed poorly in the past month, which is in line with my expectations. I think lithium is a big direction, especially in China has obvious manufacturing advantages. Although it is affected by the rise in upstream material prices in the short term, in the long run, this sector has great opportunities.

A：This year, the robot car track will undergo major changes, especially the development of FSD (fully automated driving system) will lead to the outstanding performance of AI intelligent related companies in the vehicle and parts industry, while traditional automobile manufacturers and AI intelligent backward companies may face greater pressure in the market.

A：In the past, I was not bullish on the pharmaceutical consumer sector, especially the core asset liquor. But now I think that although the overall performance of the pharmaceutical index is average, the innovative drug part performs better. From the current point of view, I think the risk of innovative drugs is too high, and some of the pharmaceutical segments with strong consumption attributes may have greater opportunities, such as AI medical and six insurance and one gold related fields.

A：A lot of people in the market focus on quantitative momentum metrics, but I think the essence of asset pricing-ROE (shareholder return)-is very important from a long-term investment perspective. If a company's ROE is low all year round, the investment value is limited. When analyzing a company, focusing on ROE, LE (future excess earnings) and cash flow stability are the most central indicators. In the long run, bull stocks tend to increase their value because they continue to create higher LEs and through mean reversion. Whether it's a consumer or manufacturing company, a high and stable ROE is worth investing in. At the same time, observing the company's revenue growth, profit growth, cash flow and ROE stability can help us identify successful and unsuccessful investment cases.

A：I think it is not difficult to invest in A- shares, especially from the perspective of making reasonable profits, to achieve good returns. By analyzing the financial statements in depth, you can find opportunities to earn excess profits over the long term.

A：This is because Kikomin usually likes to chase high and is afraid to buy when it really falls. This kind of chasing up and killing down behavior makes them may not be able to follow up in time in the bull market, and they can only choose to buy after a sharp rise, thus missing the best investment opportunity.

A：I have always adhered to the concept of research creating value, and funds issued in the past, such as research selection and research advantages, have emphasized in-depth research, contrarian layout and long-term holding. Especially in the context of quantitative trading, I think contrarian trading should be promoted.

A：In the configuration logic of 2026, the combination of AI and hard power is the big theme, which is mainly divided into six sections: intelligent driving, consumer electronics, robotics, industrial processes, communication interconnection and energy management. Among them, the field of intelligent driving benefits from the development of new energy vehicles and AI technology, and China's intelligent driving industry will develop in depth; in terms of consumer electronics, AI will improve the experience of various intelligent devices and promote the emergence of new products such as folding mobile phones; humanoid robots As the most potential carrier in AI hardware, its application scenarios in the industrial and consumer fields will gradually increase; the application of AI in industrial process optimization, communication interconnection and energy management will also be further deepened.

A：2026 is considered to be the first year of the development of commercial aviation or aerospace, and the global market is developing rapidly in this field. In view of the world's leading technological level of China's manufacturing industry, commercial aerospace and aviation will be the direction of great development in the next five, ten or even 15 years. Since February this year, there have been many news about commercial aviation and aerospace launches and recoveries at home and abroad, which has brought investment opportunities to China's industrial chain. At the same time, it also emphasized that starting this year, the development of commercial aerospace may become an important investment theme like robots.

A：2026 is expected to be an important inflection point year for the consumer sector, due to the possibility of a significant inflection point in income expectations, the possibility of a modest recovery in consumer sector product prices and the current historical lows in consumer sector valuations, market capitalization and institutional positions. In the investment strategy, will actively configure the traditional consumer industry, and focus on cost-effective, emphasizing the best of the best. A rebound in income expectations could lead to a rebound in consumption, and it has historically been shown that the opportunity for consumer goods lies not in increased sales, but in a rebound in prices. In addition, the recent rebound in the CPI index and the statement of the Central Economic Work Conference on monetary policy to support price recovery all indicate that consumer prices will stabilize and rebound in 2026, which will drive consumption to pick up and become an important investment clue.

A：The reason 2026 may be an inflection point for the consumer sector is that it is currently at the bottom of valuations, market capitalization and institutional positions. Although its share of institutional positions has decreased significantly over the past few years as the stock price has declined, as the fundamentals have turned, the stock price may not need strong fundamental support to rise at the initial stage. In addition, some liquor companies have changed their dividend policy, which means that after the last round of industry performance and stock price clearance, it will bring a better opportunity to increase positions.

A：From a configuration perspective, in 2026 we will shift our strategy from emphasizing new consumption offense and old consumption defense to old consumption turning defensive into offensive, while selecting the best for new consumption. Old consumption has been continuously adjusted, prices and valuations are attractive, and the competitive landscape has been optimized, with higher shareholder returns, increased competitiveness and improved free cash flow for leading companies, making them more attractive even if nothing else. In terms of new consumption, considering the fierce market competition and lower-than-expected profitability, we will pay more attention to changes in the industry's competitive structure and look for companies that can survive and expand market share.

A：The reason for the conservative attitude towards the new consumer sector is that the influx of social capital at the beginning of last year led to intensified market competition. Although product sales increased, prices did not increase accordingly, resulting in continued lower-than-expected profits. At the same time, the competitive landscape of the new consumer industry is unstable, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in the competitive structure of the industry. Therefore, we will be more cautious in new consumer areas and focus on selecting the strongest companies in the industry to invest in.

A：In 2025, the innovative medical market showed a bull market trend, with the Hang Seng Innovative Medical Index and the U.S. XBI Index both rising significantly. The main drivers of the rise include the dollar's interest rate cut, the creation of new growth methods and the arrival of the patent cliff period for some of the blockbuster innovative drugs in the United States. Specific to the market trend, from the 2024 mid-year report, the first-line innovative drug leading stocks appeared significant market, marking that Chinese pharmaceutical companies can earn profits in the U.S. market, and profits exceeded expectations. In addition, factors such as the inflow of overseas funds and the increase in the success rate of innovative drugs going to sea have also led to a sharp rise in the innovative medical sector.

A：The market's concerns about innovative drugs mainly include four aspects: first, the current price increase of innovative drugs is relatively large, and investors question their future growth space; Second, although the growth rate of innovative drugs is relatively fast, it remains to be seen whether such a growth rate can be maintained and a large-scale sales peak can be achieved. Third, for the BD (drug cooperation) revenue of innovative drug companies, some people think that last year's high down payment and milestone income may be short-term peaks, but in fact this stage will continue to break through, because there will be new models in the future, such as the superposition of down payment and clinical or sales milestones, making the cash flow obtained by pharmaceutical companies reach 15 billion US dollars in the short term and 300-40 billion US dollars in the long term.

A：In the innovative drug track, there is indeed a certain degree of congestion, which requires attention to the effectiveness of molecules, the competitive situation of the track, and unmet needs. Future investment should pay more attention to whether the molecule can successfully pass POC (preliminary efficacy verification) and occupy an advantage in the new diagnosis and treatment standard. In addition, whether the technology platform can continue to produce competitive new molecules is also very important. If the technology platform of Chinese pharmaceutical companies has this characteristic, the platform should be valued. At the same time, factors such as the rapid expansion of overseas clinical and the strength and speed of partners brought about by financial advantages are also important aspects to consider the value of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises.

A：In 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is still expected to be positively affected. The level of ERP (equity risk premium) is already low and there is room for further decline, which will drive further valuation repair. In addition, changes in the structure of listed companies (a decline in the share of the old economy and an increase in the share of the new economy), changes in the structure of investors (increased participation of southbound funds and global investors, increased long-term funds) and increased demand for international capital allocation of non-U.S. assets in the context of RMB internationalization will all support the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. In terms of EPS (earnings forecast), the 2026 earnings forecast is expected to improve, which will make a positive contribution to the rise of the Hong Kong stock market.

A：In 2025, Internet companies such as Taobao, Meituan and Jingdong launched a fierce subsidy war to compete for users, especially in the takeaway field. They invest about 10 billion RMB per quarter, and this irrational competition has led to a decline in the earnings forecast for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 compared to the previous two years. It is expected that in 2026, with the easing of fierce competition, subsidy behavior may no longer continue, and the profit forecast of the Hong Kong stock market will pick up significantly, with a high probability of some growth compared to 2025.

A：Although AI-related capex (capital expenditure) increases current depreciation and affects profitability, as AI technology matures, it has a pulling effect on future earnings forecasts, I .e. it may affect profits downward in the short term, but can be more optimistic about earnings forecasts in the long term.

A：EPS performance is expected to be better in 2026 than in 2025, and the growth of the Hong Kong stock market and EPS growth may take on more important tasks in 2026. In addition, the structural changes in EPS are also worthy of attention, the current Hong Kong stock market brings together a large number of technology innovation companies, its EPS growth quality is higher, the proportion of the industry representing the new economy gradually exceeds the old economy industry, which will affect the valuation level and bring valuation revision.

A：The steady increase in the proportion of Hong Kong stock exchange turnover to total daily turnover has helped to reduce the risk-free interest rate and weighted cost of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, which is conducive to valuation repair. At the same time, the overall liquidity environment in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to be more optimistic in 2026 as the proportion of southbound investors increases and interest rates on U.S. bonds are likely to remain stable over the next 10 years.

A：The main factors supporting the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 include: the decline in ERP (corporate earnings expectations) led to higher valuations, the reduction in the degree of competition in the Internet industry makes earnings forecasts expected to be positive repair, the positive contribution of investment in the AI sector, and the maintenance of a relatively abundant liquidity environment.

A：It is recommended to pay attention to the Hang Seng Technology Index, because it combines the dual attributes of consumption and technology, and is an ideal choice to participate in AI industry trends; in addition, it is optimistic about service consumption and new consumption areas, especially the tide play leader and other service consumption related industries such as clothing, food, housing, transportation, recreation and education At the same time, cyclical stocks in the Hong Kong stock market also have higher investment value during the economic bottoming stage, because of undervaluation and high dividend level.