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默沙东集团 (MRK.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
A company's earnings call discusses significant advancements in the pharmaceutical pipeline, including positive clinical trial results, regulatory approvals, and strategic collaborations. Financial highlights include a 5% revenue increase to $16.4 billion, driven by growth in oncology, vaccines, and animal health. The company anticipates a $70 billion commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, supported by new product launches and a robust pipeline. Upcoming milestones for 2026 include potential FDA approvals for therapies in various diseases, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and sustainable value creation for patients and shareholders.
会议速览
Forward-Looking Statements and GAAP Results Clarification in Company Earnings Call
A company's earnings call highlights the exclusion of certain items from non-GAAP results, provides a reconciliation in the press release, and includes a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. The speaker emphasizes potential risks and uncertainties, encourages review of SEC filings for identified risk factors, and mentions a slide presentation accompanying the remarks. All relevant documents are accessible on the company's website.
Transforming Healthcare with Innovative Medicines and Vaccines for Global Health Improvement
The company highlights significant progress in 2025, showcasing advancements in new product launches, clinical programs, and portfolio expansion through acquisitions. It outlines a promising $70 billion commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, emphasizing breakthroughs in cardiometaoblic, respiratory, and infectious diseases. The summary underscores the commitment to sustainable growth, bolstered by robust pipeline investments and the potential for transformative medicines to address critical health needs worldwide.
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth Driven by Oncology, Animal Health, and New Product Launches
The company achieved a 5% revenue increase to $16.4 billion in Q4, excluding foreign exchange, with notable growth in oncology, particularly from Keytruda, and contributions from animal health and new product launches. This success underscores the business's strength and readiness for future innovation, positioning the company for sustained value creation.
Strong Q4 Sales and Growth Across Oncology, Respiratory, and Animal Health Segments
Recent sales reached $35 million for Key, with the oncology portfolio growing, notably WellImpact at 37%. Respiratory treatments, including O2 VA, saw strong demand. Animal health sales increased 6%, driven by livestock demand, despite flat companion animal sales. The company anticipates further growth with upcoming J code implementation and ongoing research.
2026 Financial Outlook: Growth, Margins, and Capital Allocation Priorities
The dialogue outlines a detailed financial forecast for 2026, highlighting expected revenue growth, gross margin improvements, and strategic capital allocation focusing on business investments, dividends, and share repurchases. It also discusses the impact of generic competition and the ongoing optimization initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency.
2025 Year in Review: Key Advancements in Cardiovascular, Respiratory, Infectious Diseases, and Oncology
Updates spanned multiple therapeutic areas, highlighting significant progress. Oral PCSK9 inhibitor Aliotti showed efficacy in reducing cholesterol, impacting cardiovascular health. Wind River gained approval for pulmonary arterial hypertension, while MK-14406, a novel flu antiviral, completed Phase 3 enrollment. HIV treatment advanced with a new 2-drug regimen. Oncology saw breakthroughs, including intruder's approval for bladder cancer and positive outcomes in adjuvant therapy trials. These milestones underscore robust pipeline development and potential for improved patient care.
Significant Pipeline Progress and Milestones Across Multiple Therapeutic Areas
The dialogue highlights advancements in clinical trials and regulatory approvals across oncology, hematology, and other therapeutic areas. Notable achievements include sustained benefits in melanoma treatment, European approval of subcutaneous pembrolizumab, and progress in hematology with positive data on various investigational drugs. Additionally, the acquisition of Verona Pharma and Therapeutics is mentioned, along with upcoming milestones for 2025, underscoring the organization's commitment to addressing unmet patient needs through innovative treatments.
Discussion on Flu Vaccine Trial Progress and Potential Interim Results
A discussion highlighted the robustness of flu vaccine trial data, emphasizing the importance of collecting strong data across various subpopulations. The trial, driven by event rates, is ongoing in both hemispheres, with potential interim results expected to align with the increasing severity of flu seasons. Future communication plans post-trial are yet to be determined, but the focus remains on developing a first-class, season-strain agnostic antiviral agent.
Exploring Differentiated ADC Approaches in Cancer Therapy Amidst Competitive Landscape
Discusses the company's ambitious Sac Mt program with 16 phase 3 studies, highlighting differentiated approaches in non-small cell lung cancer and breast cancer, aiming to lead in specific tumor types. Challenges the perception of a conservative development strategy, emphasizing the potential for best-in-class outcomes with ADCs and ambition in first-in-class and differentiated assets.
Intellectual Property Protection and Market Strategy for Keytruda Amidst Patent Expirations
The discussion focuses on the intellectual property landscape for Keytruda, detailing the expiration dates of various patents and the potential for extended protection. It highlights the company's conservative planning approach and its strategy to drive market adoption, which remains unchanged despite patent expiration uncertainties.
Importance of Dual Regimen vs. Standard Triple Therapy in HIV Treatment
Discusses the significance of dual drug regimens compared to the standard triple therapy for HIV, highlighting the benefits of translocation inhibition and potential advantages in treatment options.
Long-Term Growth and Diversification Strategies for a Pharmaceutical Company
The dialogue highlights the company's potential for significant growth, emphasizing a robust pipeline, animal health business expansion, and de-risking strategies by 2027, aiming for a $70 billion potential and sustainable growth into the next decade.
Sustainable Growth Focus Over Short-Term Loe Adjustments
Dialogue emphasizes long-term strategic growth potential of assets, highlighting a 4 to 7% guidance range, urging attention away from current non-strategic Loe impacts towards sustainable growth metrics.
Discussion on Phase 2 Data and Future Phase 3 Endpoints for a New Drug
The dialogue focuses on expectations from Phase 2 data, including primary and secondary endpoints, and discusses ongoing FDA consultations for defining Phase 3 study outcomes, emphasizing the importance of functional activity, clinical events, and biomarkers in a new patient population.
Importance of Pursuing Combinations in TL1A Therapy Amidst Growing Competition
Discussion revolves around the significance of combining treatments in the TL1A class, highlighting the competitive landscape and strategic planning for future therapies, emphasizing the need for speed and innovation.
Wind River's Impact on P Standard of Care and Long-Term Safety
Discussion highlights Wind River's transformative role in P treatment, emphasizing its genetic pathway approach over traditional vasodilators. The conversation explores its long-term safety, tolerability, and potential to reshape clinical guidelines, akin to Ace inhibitors' impact on left heart failure.
Exploring Drug's Impact on Cardiac Health and Pulmonary Disorders
Discussion highlights the drug's potential in cardiac remodeling, its application in managing pulmonary hypertension, and implications for patients with connective tissue disorders, emphasizing ongoing research and its role in guiding future treatment decisions.
High Compliance and Consistent Safety Profile of BH Products Highlighted
The dialogue underscores the high compliance rates and consistent safety profile of BH products, aligning with or exceeding expectations. The discussion emphasizes the confidence in safety data across multiple product lines, including Hyperion, Zenith, Cell, and soteria, reflecting positive long-term outcomes.
Discussing Revenue Opportunities, Pipeline Progress, and Acquisition Strategy in the Pharma Industry
A discussion unfolds on the company's non-SRI adjusted revenue potential, emphasizing a $70 billion commercial opportunity that has grown by $20 billion over a year. The speaker highlights progress in the early-stage pipeline and interest in additional assets through business development, focusing on scientific advancements and unmet needs. The approach is characterized by discipline and value creation, with a strategic emphasis on the oncology sector and readiness to pursue larger scientific deals using the same methods.
Exploring MK-3000's Potential in Eye Diseases and Its Market Impact
The dialogue discusses MK-3000, a novel agonistic antibody targeting genetic pathways for vascular stability in the eye, offering a potential alternative for patients with suboptimal responses to VEGF therapies in age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. It highlights a significant market opportunity, estimating over $5 billion potential, driven by unmet needs in these indications and the inclusion of mka 748, a bispecific antibody, expanding the therapeutic repertoire.
Update on Biomarker Strategy Amid Competitor's Phase 3 Endpoint Changes
Discussion centered on the company's biomarker strategy, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right tumor types and considering context-dependent factors. The company confirmed their belief in the efficacy of Sac BT, noting that biomarker use will vary by tumor type and competitive landscape. A competitor's recent adjustments to phase 3 primary endpoints were acknowledged, with reassurance that strategic adaptations are underway.
要点回答
Q:What are the key achievements of the company in 2025?
A:In 2025, the company advanced key programs across all phases of development, furthering its mission to deliver transformative medicines and vaccines that improve health outcomes for patients globally. They are proud of the significant progress made and remain focused on bringing forward breakthrough science and innovation to create sustainable long-term value for patients and shareholders.
Q:What are the new commercial opportunities and potential revenue figures mentioned?
A:As a result of the company's progress, they now have a line of sight to over $70 billion of potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, which is $40 billion more than just a year ago and more than double consensus 2028 peak cray revenue of 35 billion.
Q:What are some of the key developments in clinical programs mentioned?
A:Key developments include Phase Ii results for an oil PCSK9 inhibitor that underscore the practice-changing potential of the drug for cardiovascular disease, a leading cause of death globally. They also announced Phase Ii top line findings from the Cadence trial supportive of continued development for a different type of pulmonary hypertension. In HIV, they shared positive top line results for atroviride combination with therabond for treatment-naive adults living with HIV. Additionally, Lyotard and Sac TMT, investigational tropo II directed antibody drug conjugates, were granted commissioners' national priority beucher by the FDA, potentially expediting their review.
Q:What recent acquisitions and pipeline developments have been highlighted?
A:The company completed the acquisition of S.A., which complements their portfolio and builds their legacy in combating infectious diseases. They also highlighted the promising results of phase 2 for MBA 1406, a potentially first-in-class long-acting antiviral candidate designed to prevent influenza infection. The company is excited about the potential of this preventative antiviral agent, which they believe could have over $5 billion in revenue potential and be a meaningful driver of growth later in the decade.
Q:What are the expectations for the growth potential of the company's products and business?
A:The company expects strong growth in their animal health business, the addition of new early phase programs entering Phase Ii in the near term, and additional potential science-led, disciplined, and value-enhancing business developments. They are entering a robust period with first-time phase Ii data readouts from novel candidates, which include Azlocillin combined with Le Gapper beer for potentially the first once-weekly oral treatment regimen for people living with HIV, and Ink 3000, a new mechanism of action for retinal diseases.
Q:What has been the recent performance and revenue growth in oncology?
A:Recent performance in oncology has been marked by the continued strength of Keytruda, with global sales increasing 5% to $8.4 billion. This growth is driven by robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers and strong demand from metastatic indications that primarily affect women, such as breast, cervical, and endometrial cancers. However, growth was negatively impacted by approximately 200 million due to timing of purchases in the US.
Q:What are the expected sales and impact of the permanent J code for the drug mentioned in the speech?
A:The expected sales following the implementation of a permanent J code in the US are $35 million, with the impact expected to be felt in the beginning of April. This is anticipated to have a significant positive effect on patients and healthcare systems.
Q:What are the growth figures and market impacts for the oncology portfolio and renal cell carcinoma?
A:The oncology portfolio achieved strong growth with sales increasing 37% to $220 million. This was primarily driven by increased use in patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the US and uptake from ongoing launches in certain international markets. Sales in the US also grew 7%, mainly due to pricing on neuromoev cel.
Q:What caused the decrease in Garda Silk sales, and how did other international markets grow?
A:Garda Silk sales decreased by 35% to $1 billion, which was attributed to lower demand in China and Japan. However, other international markets experienced growth of 8%, driven by the timing of purchases.
Q:How did the Cap VA launches perform, and what factors impacted sales in RSE in flonzie?
A:The Cap VA launches performed well with sales of $279 million, influenced by demand from both retail and non-retail customers, including seasonal immunization activity in the US. In contrast, sales in RSE in flonzie were $21 million, initially constrained by a lower than expected infant immunization rate and high levels of RSV monobloc antibody.
Q:What were the sales figures for overall products, and how are they being impacted by the introduction of O2 VA for COPD?
A:Overall sales were $467 million, driven by the continued strong demand for the treatment in the US, with more than 1500 new patients prescribed and over 27,000 total prescriptions dispensed. O2 VA for the maintenance treatment of COPD saw sales of $178 million, with the acquisition of Verona on October 7 contributing to strong growth in new patients started and total patients treated.
Q:How did the animal health business perform, and what are the growth drivers mentioned?
A:The animal health business experienced strong growth with sales increasing 6%, with livestock sales growing 9% and companion animal sales remaining flat due to new product launches offset by a reduction in vet visits.
Q:What is the significance of the non-GAAP basis in the financial discussion, and what were the gross margin and operating expenses?
A:The non-GAAP basis is used for a financial discussion that excludes certain charges to provide an alternative view of the company's financial performance. Gross margin was 79.7%, and operating expenses decreased to $6.8 billion, with a charge of $150 million related to a rights agreement and lower than a year ago due to business development charges.
Q:What is the 2026 non-GAAP guidance provided by the company?
A:The company provided non-GAAP guidance for 2026 with revenue expected between $65.5 and $67 billion, representing 1 to 3% growth, including a positive impact from foreign exchange. Gross margin is assumed to be approximately 82%, operating expenses between $35.9 and $36.9 billion, and other expense of approximately $1.3 billion. The tax rate is 15.4%, leading to earnings per share of $2.40. Share repurchases are assumed to be about $3 billion, and the company aims to maintain a balance without cash build-up on the balance sheet.
Q:What is the status of the phase 3-outcome study for Wind River?
A:The phase 3-outcome study for Wind River is ongoing and fully enrolled.
Q:What is the purpose of the Phase 3 anchor study mentioned in the transcript?
A:The purpose of the Phase 3 anchor study is to evaluate a potentially first-in-class long-acting, antiviral, strain-agnostic prophylactic for the prevention of seasonal influenza, specifically in individuals at high risk of serious complications.
Q:What are the results of the investigation into the one daily single tablet, 2-drug regimen of derain and aslo?
A:The investigation into the one daily single tablet, 2-drug regimen of derain and aslo, which leverages translocation inhibition from a phase 3 study in previously untreated adults with HIV-1 infection, demonstrated non-sinusoidal II and safety compared to a broadly used three-drug regimen.
Q:What impact did the intruder and Keytruda have on bladder cancer according to the recent studies?
A:The studies on intruder and Keytruda showed that they are effective in treating a wide spectrum of cancers, with notable developments including FDA approval for both drugs in combination with a specific agent for adjuvant treatment in bladder cancer and positive top line results from the phase three Keynote B15 study demonstrating improvements in event-free survival, overall survival, and pathologic complete response rates.
Q:What is the significance of the Keynote 942 study and the phase 3 interpath 0 0 1 trial?
A:The Keynote 942 study and the ongoing phase 3 interpath 0 0 1 trial are significant as they evaluate the candidate neoantigen therapy in combination with pembrolizumab in patients with high-risk stage 3 or 4 melanoma and assess the recurrence-free survival and other outcomes.
Q:What is the first and only subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor approved by the European Commission for?
A:The European Commission approved the subcutaneous injection of pembrolizumab for use in all 33 indications for adult patients, making it the first and only subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor that can be administered rapidly in Europe.
Q:How many phase 3 studies are being conducted in 2025 and what are the significant milestones expected?
A:There are two ongoing phase 3 studies evaluating Boma deta in essential thrombocythemia and an orphan disease. Significant milestones expected in 2025 include a February 2025 date for certain patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer based on the Keynote V 96 trial, a May 2025 presentation of detailed findings at ASCO for a first in class oral HIF 2 alpha inhibitor, and an April 28, 2025, PDUFA date for grazoprevir and the L冕bora once daily or two drug treatment regimen.
Q:What are the thoughts on running the full trial given the severity of the flu season and potential impact on event rates?
A:The thoughts on running the full trial are centered around ensuring the trial is adequately powered with strong data across various subpopulations important for future labels. This is an event-driven trial, and while specific communication plans following interim analysis have not been disclosed, the severity of the flu season highlights the importance of the model completed in the Northern Hemisphere and the ongoing parallel recruitment in the Southern Hemisphere.
Q:What is the development strategy regarding first line CP patients in the context of emerging data from China?
A:The development strategy regarding first line CP patients is to leverage a robust portfolio that includes differentiated approaches, particularly in tissue types and tumor types. Despite some may characterize the program as conservative, the company believes in the potential of their first-in-class and differentiated assets, including 16 phase 3 studies and various approaches to non-small cell lung cancer and breast cancer.
Q:How should the intellectual property (IP) running for Keytruda be modeled and what is the timing associated with Keytruda IV biosimilar induction?
A:The intellectual property for Keytruda consists of four patents, with the compound patent expiring in December 2028, and two method of making and method of use patents extending to May 2029 and November 2029, respectively. Initially, the company was conservative in its assumptions, based solely on the compound patent. However, the case law has evolved, and confidence in defending the additional two patents has grown, which impacts the timing and model for Keytruda IV biosimilar induction.
Q:What is the projected adoption percentage for the Q product by 2028 and what strategy is being pursued?
A:The projected adoption for the Q product by 2028 is 30% to 40%, and the strategy to drive this adoption is already underway, focusing on transitioning from contri to IV to Cli.
Q:Why is there a potential for a different regimen, and what are the benefits of a dual regimen compared to the standard of care in HIV treatment?
A:There is a potential for a different regimen due to the need for different options in HIV treatment, as evidenced by the two-drug approach already available. A dual regimen could be significant for patients, especially in light of long-standing treatment issues with HIV, offering a two-drug combination without a density backbone.
Q:What are the company's expectations for growth and the potential value of the business by 2027?
A:The company expects significant growth, with a potential value of over $70 billion by 2027. This would be more than double the consensus estimate for CDA at $28-35 billion and is driven by a broad and light pipeline. The company believes it has the highest potential for sustainable growth close to the launch of the new product, and the de-risking of the early-stage pipeline is expected to continue through to 2027.
Q:What discussions are ongoing regarding potential endpoints for the Phase 3 clinical trials?
A:Ongoing discussions with the FDA are focusing on potential endpoints for the Phase 3 clinical trials, which will involve considerations such as functional activity, clinical events, and biomarkers. The discussions are particularly focused on aligning with the FDA for the new patient population the drug will target.
Q:How does the company view the importance and potential speed of pursuing combinations following new data?
A:The company recognizes the importance and potential speed of pursuing combinations following new data, especially given the focus on Atlas and the competitive landscape. They acknowledge the shift towards various combinations and the intensification of efforts with multi-specifics. The company's mission is to be first and best in class for TL 1A, and they are studying it in six diseases, with plans to assess patient populations and discuss combinatorial potential in terms of antibodies and orals, although specific details were not disclosed in the public call.
Q:What are the characteristics of Wind Rivers in the treatment of P and how is it reshaping the standard of care?
A:Wind Rivers is reshaping the standard of care in P by targeting the underlying biology through genetics, differentiating it from classic vasal dilators. Its impact on right heart failure and PH is compared to how Merck's Ace inhibitors influenced left heart failure. Future guidelines are expected to be shaped by clinical data regarding adverse effects and long-term treatment.
Q:What are the perspectives of sites in Texas regarding the use of Wind Rivers and what are the considerations for its application in patients with connective tissue disorders?
A:Sites in Texas are quite bullish on Wind Rivers, discussing its benefits in terms of cardiac remodeling and sustainability. However, considerations are being given to the use of the drug in patients with connective tissue disorders, who also have conditions related to pulmonary fibrosis and other pulmonary diseases. These considerations are part of ongoing discussions and future data will guide decision-making for the drug's application.
Q:What is the current status of prescriptions and compliance for Wind Rivers?
A:To date, over 110,000 prescriptions for Wind Rivers have been dispensed, with more than 9,100 patients starting therapy. Overall compliance is high, although there is a slow increasing rate of discontinuation, which is still within acceptable limits and better than other BH products. The safety profile continues to be very confident and consistent with the label, as observed across various studies and data.
Q:What is the company's approach to business development and how does it plan to maintain discipline in acquisitions?
A:The company's approach to business development is focused on opportunities that show significant scientific advancement, address unmet needs aligned with strategy, and create value. They aim to maintain discipline by continuing to do deals with the same methods and approach, even for larger potential acquisitions, as illustrated by their track record.
Q:What potential does m.K. 3000 have in treating diabetic macular edema (DME) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD)?
A:m.K. 3000 is a new mechanism targeting the genetics of vascular stability in the eye, which is the first agonistic antibody towards this pathway. It is being studied for its potential in treating DME and AMD, which are important indications driven by non-vascular endothelial growth factor. Up to 40% of patients have suboptimal response to VEGF therapy, presenting an opportunity for m.K. 3000 to address this segment. m.K. 3000 could also complement VEGF therapy in the treatment regimen. In the U.S., the potential market for these indications, excluding VEGF therapy, is estimated to be around $15 billion. The addition of m.K. 748, a novel bispecific antibody, is seen as enhancing the market potential to more than $5 billion.
Q:How does the company plan to update its biomarker strategy in light of a competitor's changes to their phase 3 primary endpoints?
A:The company believes that Sac BT has the potential to be best in class, but it's crucial to determine the appropriate tumor types and strategies within those types. The need for a biomarker will vary by tumor type and is dependent on context, including the presence of strong comparators and the bar to beat in treatment. Specific details of the updated biomarker strategy are not provided, but the focus will be on the relevance of biomarkers in the treatment context and their necessity in certain tumor types.
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