中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
Mr. Meng and Mr. Wang analyzed the sales expectations of the property market in February and March, pointed out that the demand was delayed and the policy preferences were increased, and they were optimistic about "Xiaoyangchun. Teacher Wang explained that although the total sales of real estate enterprises in January decreased year-on-year, the overall stability, the amount of land acquisition fell sharply, and the real estate enterprises were cautious. Zhao Zong shared the experience of high-end residential development in Jinan Jiucheng Payment Project, emphasized product innovation and service, combined with natural landscape, provided customized service, and became the market leader. The meeting focused on real estate market trends, housing enterprise strategy and high-quality project cases, pointed out that the policy is good and market repair, but the need for greater policy support, a second-tier city new housing repair, second-hand housing performance is strong.
会议速览
The sharing session focused on the real estate market situation and trend outlook, reviewed the central policy signals, including the attributes of real estate financial assets and the supporting position of the national economy mentioned in the Qiushi article, and emphasized that the policy has entered a new stage of stabilizing expectations and shortening the adjustment time. This paper analyzes the market performance of key cities in January, points out positive signs, and forecasts the interpretation of the operating performance of housing enterprises and the sharing of successful experiences of good houses.
The dialogue focused on the positive trend of property market policy around January 2025, including VAT optimization, personal income tax concessions, whitelist project promotion, loan interest rate reduction and other measures, aimed at optimizing the market environment from both sides of supply and demand. In particular, the signal significance of Beijing's policy indicates that other cities may further relax purchase restrictions and increase housing subsidies. Despite the loose policy environment, the recovery of market confidence and actual demand still needs more substantial policy support.
As of the end of January, 26 provinces and cities across the country announced the use of convertible bonds to purchase the stock of land, the total amount of 772.5 billion yuan, the actual issue of 310 billion yuan, accounting for 40%. First-and second-tier cities account for 36% and third-tier cities account for more than 60%. Second-hand housing prices continued to fall, but the decline narrowed; new home prices rose month-on-month and the increase narrowed. In the off-season of the rental market, the national average rent fell 0.45 month-on-month, with only one city rent rising.
The dialogue analyzed in detail the real estate market transactions in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, and pointed out that new housing transactions generally declined month-on-month and year-on-year, but second-hand housing performed better, with year-on-year growth. At the same time, the inventory situation of each city is discussed, some cities have greater inventory pressure, longer de-chemical cycle, the market is in the repair channel.
The structural problems of inventory in Beijing and its surrounding areas are discussed, and it is pointed out that the inventory in the city center is relatively healthy, while the inventory pressure in the outer suburbs is greater. It is analyzed that both the supply side and the demand side of the land market show a downward trend, especially in January, the transaction area and transfer fee decreased significantly year-on-year, mainly affected by the reduction of supply, the high base last year and the expected land acquisition of real estate enterprises. Some cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu still have good land transactions, but the overall soil auction performance is relatively flat.
The characteristics of Beijing's 2026 land supply plan are discussed, including the shrinking of residential land, the increase of industrial land, the optimization of commercial housing supply and the first separate renewal plan indicators. Analysis of last year's Beijing homestead transactions, pointed out that the central city accounted for more than 50% of the transactions. Looking to the future, we believe that the policy environment is loose, the property market is expected to enter the stage of stable expectations, and we are optimistic about the performance of the Xiaoyangchun market.
In January, total sales of real estate companies fell 18.9 percent, unchanged from last year, and market activity increased due to policy repairs. TOP10 housing enterprises are more resilient, the number of 10 billion housing enterprises decreased, but the number of more than 5 billion enterprises increased, indicating that the industry is shifting from scale racing to quality racing, focusing on product innovation and user experience, reducing systemic risk, improving pressure resistance and long-term resilience.
The dialogue focused on the development direction of urban real estate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on accelerating the construction of a new real estate model, increasing the supply of affordable housing, promoting the construction of good houses and improving the safety management of the whole life cycle of houses. At the same time, it analyzes the reasons for the decline in the total amount of land taken by real estate companies, including the high base effect last year, insufficient quality and quantity of market land, and increased real estate uncertainty, reflecting the cautious attitude of corporate land acquisition strategies.
In 2025, the state will collect and store more than 5500 cases of idle land with an area of nearly 0.3 billion square meters and a total amount of more than 300 billion yuan through special bonds, aiming to improve the relationship between land supply and demand. The Yangtze River Delta region has become a hot spot for housing enterprises because of the market outlook, with high-priced land in Shanghai and Hangzhou. The trend of joint land acquisition is obvious, with state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises participating together to share risks and costs. It is expected that more cities will promote the collection and storage of idle land in 2026, boosting market expectations.
It shared the successful experience of Jinan CBD high-end residential project Jiuchengfu, which was jointly developed by Jinan local state-owned enterprises and Poly Real Estate. It is located in the core of Jinan CBD and close to scarce mountain resources. The project takes the slogan of "let the luxury houses in CBD go up to nine steps" and combines the concept of CBD ecological residential protection area to create an urban green corridor connecting the two mountain resources. There is a mature landscape park on the west side, which is superior in overall environment. As the second project of Poly's "Rich Department" product line in Jinan, Jiucheng Fu embodies modern oriental aesthetics and aims to become a model of high-end housing in Shandong and even the whole country.
The project employs seven top designers from all over the country, headed by Zhao Zuoyi, president of Beijing Shunjing Garden, to build a five-fold and nine-clean royal garden, including a 9.5-meter-high 77-meter span gate, a terrain design with a rise of 3.7 to 10 meters, a 2000 flat water garden and a lotus kingfisher map of Badashanen. Architectural aesthetics integrates the world's oriental classic structure, adopts dry hanging aluminum plate and oversized glass curtain wall, and realizes the perfect combination of modern simplicity and traditional oriental elegance. The project also pioneered an artificial rainfall system, which can cool down 5-8 degrees in 30 minutes in summer and regulate microclimate.
The dialogue introduced the super-large clubhouse and four-generation residence project built by Poly in Shandong, including ten functional areas, three four-generation residence products, and 614 households in 11 buildings. Special mention was made of the new four-generation residence, mountain and waterscape apartment type, customized air courtyard, and the high utilization design with an occupancy rate of over 90%, which laid the excellent results of the project in Jinan.
I shared the Jinan luxury house project that opened on December 21, 2025. The project won the first place in Shandong Province in terms of net signing amount and the triple crown in Jinan City. In particular, I introduced the excellent design and donation area of 175 Ping, 5 rooms, 2 halls, 3 guards and 152 Ping, 4-leaf clover apartments, emphasized the high-quality community service and ecological garden landscape, and reflected the leading position of the project in Jinan and even the whole country.
要点回答
Q:At today's sharing session, what will Mr. Meng Zengzhong of the Middle Finger Research Institute share? What are the key policies for the real estate market in January?
A:Mr. Meng will share the summary of the recent real estate market situation and the outlook for future trends, as well as the interpretation of the operating performance and land acquisition of real estate enterprises in January this year. Key policies include: optimizing the value-added tax policy, continuing the personal income tax preferential policy, lowering the structural loan interest rate, and adjusting the down payment ratio of commercial housing to 30%. These all reflect the relaxation of financing conditions for enterprises and home buyers, which will help promote the real estate market. Healthy development.
Q:What is the importance of recent policy signals in the real estate market?
A:Recent policy signals from the real estate market indicate that the central government has entered a new stage of stabilizing expectations, such as shortening the adjustment time and emphasizing the importance of real estate in the attributes of financial assets and the supporting position of the national economy. The policy not only optimizes the demand side, but also involves the supply side, solving project problems through whitelisting and other means, thus stabilizing market confidence.
Q:What is the likelihood of a rate cut?
A:Interest rate cuts are expected to come from both external (the dollar rate cut channel) and internal (the domestic economy stabilizes and improves), and there is still much room for a rate cut in the current economic situation. However, whether it is actually implemented depends on internal and external factors and the direction of subsequent policies.
Q:What kind of policy environment is the current property market in?
A:At present, the property market is in a relatively loose policy environment, and more favorable policies have been issued from the central to the local level, but more substantive follow-up policies are still needed to achieve a real recovery of the market.
Q:Judging from the frequency of urban policies and changes in Beijing's policies, what are the expectations for the future property market?
A:The data show that the policy frequency of key cities in January is more, and Beijing's policy is relatively loose, which has signal significance. Other cities may continue to increase their efforts in housing subsidies, indicating that the subsequent property market policy is expected to be further relaxed.
Q:What is the situation of the central reserve land?
A:As of the end of January this year, 26 provinces and cities across the country have announced the use of convertible bonds to purchase stock land, with a total amount of more than 770 billion yuan, and about 310 billion yuan has been issued, accounting for 40%. The proportion of first-and second-tier cities and third-tier cities is 36% and 60% respectively, and the overall structure is reasonable.
Q:What is the current price trend of second-hand and new houses shown by the price index of 100 cities?
A:Second-hand housing prices fell month-on-month, but the decline narrowed; new home prices rose month-on-month, but the increase also narrowed. Although the number of second-hand housing listings is declining, the overall scale is still high, leading to a downward trend in prices. The rise in new home prices is mainly affected by some high-priced properties.
Q:What is the current national rental situation?
A:At present, rents are showing a downward trend. The average rent has fallen by 0.45 month-on-month. Rents in 49 of the 50 cities are declining month-on-month, and only one city has increased rents.
Q:How are the new and second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shanghai?
A:About 310000 new houses were sold in Beijing in January, down 20% from the previous month and year-on-year; 15000 second-hand houses were sold, down from the previous month but up 21% year-on-year. New homes in Shanghai fell 36 per cent month-on-month and 5 per cent year-on-year, while second-hand homes were essentially flat month-on-month, up 26 per cent year-on-year.
Q:How are the new and second-hand houses in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu performing?
A:New houses in Guangzhou also declined month-on-month, while new houses in Shenzhen fell sharply (56%) compared with the same period last year, but second-hand houses performed better; new houses in Hangzhou were adjusted, with second-hand houses increasing by 20% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month; new houses in Chengdu declined month-on-month, while second-hand houses declined slightly compared with the same period last year.
Q:What is the inventory situation in key cities?
A:Most cities have a long de-chemical cycle and high inventory pressure, especially in Beijing, where there are structural problems and obvious inventory pressure in some outer suburbs. The inventory of cities with inventory cycle within 12 months, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou and Chongqing, is relatively healthy, while the inventory of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hefei and other cities may be sub-healthy.
Q:What is the land supply and transaction situation?
A:Last year, both land supply and demand fell year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, supply has slowed down, transaction area has continued to decline, and transfer fees have fallen sharply year-on-year. The decline was more pronounced in Beijing due to reduced supply and a higher base last year. Judging from the performance of land auctions in key cities in January, the overall situation is relatively flat, but Hangzhou and Chengdu still have some high-priced land transactions.
Q:What are the characteristics of Beijing's 2020 land supply plan?
A:Beijing's land supply plan for 2020 shows a shrinking trend. The supply of residential land has decreased compared with last year, while industrial land has increased. Beijing emphasizes optimizing the supply of commercial housing, giving priority to land supply around the track site, and promoting the construction of good houses. In addition, for the first time, a separate update plan indicator was presented, proposing that the supply of stock land accounts for 65% of the overall supply, indicating that the future land market will pay more attention to both stock update and new function supply.
Q:What is the proportion of the central city in Beijing's homestead transactions last year?
A:Last year, the central urban area accounted for more than 50% of the residential land transactions in Beijing, of which the central urban area accounted for 51%, an increase of four percentage points over the same period last year. The proportion of suburban and outer suburbs is declining.
Q:What is the current property market policy environment?
A:At present, the property market policy environment is relatively loose, the central government has repeatedly released positive signals, including tax rebates, housing exchange policies, interest rate cuts, and sufficient supply in urban centers, all of which are conducive to stabilizing market expectations and shortening the adjustment time. Therefore, we should hold stable expectations for the future property market.
Q:What is the outlook for the property market in March this year and beyond?
A:Due to the early release of some demand in January, the good plots sold in the second half of last year will enter the market in March, and the possible continuation of preferential policies, it is expected that the property market will have a small spring performance in March, and the sales situation may be delayed after a slowdown.
Q:How was the sales performance of TOP housing enterprises in January?
A:In January, the total sales of TOP 100 real estate enterprises was 1.02 billion 1905 yuan, a slight decrease of 18.9 percent over the same period last year, which was basically the same as that of the whole of last year. Although overall sales have declined, sales of real estate companies have remained relatively stable, and Top 10 companies are more resilient and sales have fallen less.
Q:What is the current development trend and future development direction of real estate enterprises?
A:At present, housing enterprises are shifting from scale racing to quality racing, focusing on reducing systemic risk, improving resilience and long-term resilience. At the same time, real estate companies should pay attention to product innovation, build good houses that meet policy trends and user needs, such as green and smart houses, and improve the safety management system of the entire life cycle of the house to ensure the quality and safety of the house.
Q:How was the land acquisition by the housing enterprises in January?
A:In January, the total amount of land taken by housing enterprises was 57.99 billion yuan, down 52.1 percent from a year earlier. This is mainly due to the high number of land acquisitions in January last year and the small and average quality of land launched by the market, which led to the relatively cautious performance of real estate companies in land acquisition.
Q:Since the fourth quarter, what has changed in the land situation?
A:Since the fourth quarter of last year, the enthusiasm for land acquisition has declined, mainly due to the rapid overall growth rate and the active replenishment of positions by enterprises in advance, resulting in a decline in enthusiasm in the fourth quarter. This year has continued this trend. Real estate companies are more cautious when acquiring land, especially in project selection, they tend to focus on and avoid large-scale plots. At the same time, the product development cycle is shortened, and companies begin to conduct product research before acquiring land. To ensure a cautious attitude.
Q:What is the status of special debt collection and storage?
A:In 2025, the effect of special debt collection and storage of idle land as an important measure of the state to improve land supply is remarkable. According to statistics, as of the end of December, more than 5500 cases of idle land in stock to be acquired with special bonds were announced across the country, with a land area of nearly 0.3 billion square meters, and the amount of special bonds involved exceeded 300 billion yuan. This policy is expected to continue this year and is expected to improve the current supply and demand relationship in the land market.
Q:What are the characteristics of the land area?
A:In January this year, the Yangtze River Delta region ranked first in terms of land acquisition amount. Among them, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities performed well. Real estate companies are more optimistic about the regional market and tend to carry out land acquisition activities here.
Q:How's the high-priced land?
A:Due to their good market performance, Shanghai and Hangzhou have become the cities with more high-priced land on the list this year. For example, Shanghai has three parcels on the list, with a total amount of 4.5 billion yuan; Fuzhou also has two parcels on the list, with a total amount of 3.8 billion yuan. yuan.
Q:What has changed in the phenomenon of joint land acquisition?
A:The increase in the phenomenon of joint land acquisition is mainly due to the high land price. The amount and risk can be shared through joint land acquisition. At present, there is still uncertainty in the market. Therefore, enterprises of various natures, including state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and private enterprises, have participated in joint land acquisition.
Q:What are the characteristics of the nine-city payment project?
A:The Jiucheng Payment Project is located in the core CBD area of Jinan and has scarce mountain resources. It is jointly developed by Chengfa Group and Poly Real Estate. With the goal of creating "Qilu luxury house with nine floors", the project has hired seven top designers from all over the country to carry out joint design of gardens and architectural aesthetics, and is committed to creating world-class oriental classic residential areas. and achieved a number of innovations in garden design, such as the first community artificial rainfall system, to provide a unique life experience.
Q:What are the upgrades and features of this project in terms of clubhouse?
A:We have upgraded the clubhouse in an all-round way according to the standard of a good house, and built a large clubhouse of more than 5,000 square meters, including gymnasium, swimming pool, basketball court, private banquet hall, reception area, 4: 30 school and other functional fields. The design of the club fully considers the needs of different types of apartments, such as the new four-generation apartments in Building 468, and the spacious apartments in Buildings 6 and 2 with mountain and water views. At the same time, the project also meets the customization requirements. For example, 290 flat apartments can be customized for one household, with a maximum area of 580 flat air courtyard houses.
Q:What are the unique features of the project in terms of product design? What are the typical sales units in the project?
A:Combined with the new regulations of Jinan last year, the project has created products with ultra-high utilization rate, with a housing occupancy rate of more than 90%, and a large-scale housing occupancy rate of 100%, which is unprecedented in Jinan's previous projects. For example, we have realized the design of five rooms, two halls and three bathrooms in products below 200 square meters, and donated the area of small tea rooms through the transformation of equipment platforms, and the balcony part has also realized the area donation through specific transformation. In addition, some apartments have also set up full complimentary floating window space and pick-up space, making the actual use area far more than the traditional apartments of the same area. The typical apartments on sale in our project include 175 square meters of five rooms, two halls and three bathrooms, all of which have been sold out at present. This room type has achieved a high occupancy rate, with some apartments reaching 168 square meters and the elevator hall reaching 173 square meters. In addition, there are 152 flat four-leaf clover room types, which also enjoy high occupancy rate and spacious four-sided wide design, and provide two decoration color options of dark color and light color, as well as future loading packages to meet customized needs.
Q:What are the highlights of the project in service and community building?
A:The project not only provides high-quality residential products, but also proposes and implements the concept of "Patek Butler" to create a community of tens of millions of luxury houses, aiming to bring customers a better living experience. It is the first microclimate landscape community in Qilu and the first community in Jinan to propose the regulation of oriental royal gardens. In addition, the project also has the largest 5000 level club in Jinan, and pays special attention to healthy living, providing four-generation houses and high-end service concept community.

中指研究院
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