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美国超微公司 (AMD.US) 2025年第四季度及全年业绩电话会
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会议摘要
AMD reported record revenue of $34.6 billion, a 34% increase, driven by high-performance computing and AI products. Notable growth in data center, client, and gaming segments. Plans to expand AI business, targeting tens of billions in annual revenue, with launches of MI400 series and Healios platforms. Aims for over 60% annual growth in data center segment, emphasizing leadership in CPU and GPU markets, strong customer partnerships, and strategic investments.
会议速览
AMD's Q4 and FY25 Financial Results Call: Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Measures Discussed
The call, moderated by the VP of Financial Strategy and IR, outlines AMD's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. It highlights the use of non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations, and forward-looking statements, emphasizing risks and uncertainties that could affect future outcomes. A replay of the call is available via webcast on the company's website.
AMD's 2025 Record-Breaking Revenue Driven by Data Center and AI Products
AMD achieved record revenue, net income, and free cash flow in 2025, fueled by strong demand for its data center and AI products. The company saw significant growth in server and PC processor shares, with record sales of Instinct processors and EPYC CPUs. AMD's Venice CPU and Instinct Mi350 series are poised for further expansion, solidifying its position as the processor of choice for modern data centers.
AMD's AI & Client Business Accelerates with New GPU and CPU Innovations
AMD highlights significant advancements in AI and client segments, including the launch of the Mi 400 series and HeaLoS platform, which offer enhanced performance and TCO benefits. The company also notes record-breaking sales in client PC processors, particularly in desktop and mobile CPUs, driven by the Ryzen series. Gaming GPU revenue saw growth, supported by innovations like FSR for Redstone. AMD is expanding its AI offerings with domain-specific models and strategic partnerships, aiming for substantial revenue growth in data center segments.
AMD's 2025 Growth Trajectory: Record Design Wins, AI Expansion, and Future Ambitions
AMD achieved significant milestones in 2025, including a 3% revenue increase in the embedded segment, record $17 billion in design wins, and production of advanced AI Edge Gen 2 SoCs. The company anticipates robust growth driven by AI computing demand, with ambitious targets for revenue growth, operating margins, and annual EPS over the next few years.
AMD's Record Revenue and Profit Growth in 2025, Driven by Data Center and Gaming Segments
AMD achieved record revenue of $34.6 billion in 2025, up 30% year-over-year, with significant growth in data center and gaming segments. The company reported a record $2.9 billion operating income and $1.53 earnings per share in Q4, reflecting strong execution and strategic investments in AI and data center technologies.
AMD's 2025 Financial Performance and 2026 Outlook: Strong Revenue Growth and Strategic Investments
AMD reported record revenues and operating income in 2025, driven by strong demand for data center, client, and gaming segments. The company achieved 32% year-over-year revenue growth, excluding Mi 308 sales to China, and emphasized investments in AI and innovation. For 2026, AMD anticipates continued growth, focusing on data center AI, operating leverage, and shareholder value.
Initiating QA Session: Instructions for Participation
Instructions are given to start a question and answer session, guiding participants on how to join the queue using their telephone keypad, with options to add or remove themselves from the queue.
AMD's Optimism on Mi 450 Series and AI Revenue Projections
AMD reaffirms its commitment to achieving high 20 billion AI revenue expectations by 2027, driven by strong customer engagements and the successful development of the Mi 450 series. Progress with OpenAI and interest from multiple customers in ramping up Mi Lor production highlight the company's confidence in its data center AI growth trajectory.
Insights on March Guidance: Upward Trend in Data Center and GPU Revenues
A detailed discussion on the upward guidance for March, highlighting positive trends in data center and GPU revenues, with a seasonal CPU decline expected but overall sequential growth anticipated in the data center segment.
Data Center Growth Driven by AI and CPU Advancements in 2023
The dialogue highlights robust growth in data centers fueled by AI and CPU advancements, with strong CPU order books and anticipation of Mi 450's significant volume ramp-up in late 2023, marking a pivotal year for data center AI.
China Market Sales Projections & Data Center Revenue Growth Targets
A discussion on anticipated China Mi 308 sales beyond Q1 and the feasibility of achieving a 60%+ growth rate in data center revenue by 2026, focusing on server CPU and GPU advancements as key growth drivers.
China's Dynamic Market and Data Center Growth Forecast
Discusses licensed sales in China, cautious revenue forecasting due to market dynamics, and strong outlook for data center growth with upcoming product launches.
Server CPU Market Growth and Supply Chain Strategies
Discusses the server CPU market's strong double-digit growth potential, driven by AI advancements, and outlines strategies for increasing supply capacity to meet demand, emphasizing collaboration with supply chain partners to enhance production.
Gross Margin Improvement and Product Mix Benefits
Discussed significant improvements in gross margins attributed to a favorable product mix, ramping new generation products, and recovery in embedded business. The forecast for continued margin growth in upcoming quarters was highlighted.
Discussion on Mi 455 Ramp, Revenue Recognition, and Development Risks
A detailed discussion on the majority of Mi 455 business being rack scale solutions with revenue recognition upon shipment to rack builders. It also covers the progress in development, extensive testing, and proactive measures to mitigate risks similar to competitors' past issues, ensuring a successful second half launch.
Operational Expenditure Growth and AI Revenue Impact in Tech Industry
Discussion revolves around Opex growth, its necessity for expansion, and expected leverage with increasing AI revenue. Clean margin guidance for China revenue is highlighted, alongside AI revenue growth insights excluding non-recurring China sales.
Navigating Market Challenges and Technological Advancements in Client and GPU Sectors
The dialogue discusses strategies for client market growth amid inflationary pressures and competition in the GPU sector. The speaker emphasizes growth in premium market segments and enterprise solutions, while addressing competitive implications of spatial architecture advancements. The focus is on leveraging HBM content for lower latency inference, positioning products to service emerging demands.
AI Market Maturation and Inference Efficiency
Discussion on the growing importance of inference efficiency in the evolving AI market, highlighting optimization strategies and future opportunities in workload-specific products and compute stack enhancements.
OpenAI Partnership & CPU Market Trends: A Dialogue on AI Infrastructure and Competitive Dynamics
A discussion on the partnership with OpenAI for Mi 450 series ramp-up, emphasizing schedule adherence and broad customer engagement. It also covers the x86 vs Arm CPU debate, highlighting the necessity of high-performance CPUs for AI tasks, Epic's optimization for diverse workloads, and Nvidia's competitive positioning in the market.
Memory Procurement Strategies and System Architecture Evolution
Discusses procurement timing for memory components like HBM, emphasizing multi-year agreements and supply chain planning. Highlights flexibility in system architecture to cater to diverse AI requirements, from rack-scale to enterprise solutions.
Gross Margin Trends and Gaming Revenue Shifts in Technology Generations
Discussion revolves around the expected increase in gross margins with each new technology generation due to enhanced capabilities, despite initial lower margins during ramp-up phases. Also addressed is the anticipated significant decline in semi-customer revenue from gaming in 2026, following the typical lifecycle pattern, with future growth projected upon the introduction of next-generation consoles.
AMD's Strategy on Supply Chain Management and Opex Investment for Revenue Growth
Discussed AMD's plans to manage supply constraints while ramping up production, emphasizing aggressive but achievable ramp strategies. Highlighted significant investments in data center AI, hardware, software, and acquisitions like Z T systems for 2025, with continued aggressive investment expected in 2026, aiming for revenue growth exceeding Opex increases to drive EPS expansion.
要点回答
Q:What were the highlights of AMD's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results?
A:The highlights of AMD's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results include record revenue, net income, and free cash flow driven by broad-based demand for high-performance computing and AI products. Demand accelerated across data centers, PCs, and embedded markets, with the launch of the broadest set of leadership products in history, gains in server and PC processor share, and rapid scaling of the data center AI business.
Q:What are the recent achievements in AMD's data center segment?
A:Recent achievements in AMD's data center segment include a year-over-year revenue increase of 50% to $5.4 billion, accelerated deployments of the Instinct Mi 350 series GPUs, and gains in server market share with the 5th gen Epic CPUs. Additionally, the company had robust sales of fourth-generation Epic CPUs, with significant public cloud offerings growth and deployments by hyperscalers and enterprises.
Q:How is the shift in EPIC adoption reflected in the market?
A:The shift in EPIC adoption is reflected in the market with a doubling of large businesses deploying EPIC on-premises, record server sales, and strong demand from hyperscalers and enterprises. Cloud providers are launching more instances, with significant growth in public cloud offerings, and the number of AI workload production cases using Instinct CPUs expanded to 8 of the top 10.
Q:What are the expectations for server CPU demand according to AMD?
A:AMD expects strong server CPU demand going forward with hyperscalers expanding their infrastructure for cloud services and AI, and enterprises modernizing their data centers for AI workflows. The company believes Epic has become the processor of choice for the modern data center, offering leadership in performance, efficiency, and total cost of ownership (TCO). The launch of the next-generation Venice CPU is anticipated to further extend this leadership.
Q:What record was set in the fourth quarter for the data center AI business?
A:In the fourth quarter, AMD set a record for Instinct CPU revenue, driven by the ramp of the Mi 350 series shipments and some revenue from the Mi 308 sales. The adoption of Instinct broadened with 8 of the top 10 using it for production workloads, and the company announced strategic partnerships and initiatives to support the next phase of Instinct adoption.
Q:What are the details regarding the strategic partnership with Tata Consultancy Services?
A:The strategic partnership with Tata Consultancy Services is aimed at co-developing industry-specific AI solutions to help customers deploy AI across their operations. This partnership is expected to contribute to the deployment of AI solutions and further expand the use of AMD's technology in business operations.
Q:What is the progress of the next generation of Instinct CPUs, and what are they expected to deliver?
A:The next generation of Instinct CPUs, powered by the CDNA 6 architecture and built on an advanced 5nm process technology, is expected to deliver another major leap in AI performance. These CPUs will feature high-speed HBM4 memory and are anticipated to support the development of large-scale multimodal models. The launch of Mi 400 is expected later in the year, alongside the strategic partnership with OpenAI for deploying substantial AI capabilities.
Q:What is the projected decline in semi custom SOC revenue and what upcoming events will affect this?
A:Semi custom SOC revenue is expected to decline by a significant double-digit percentage as the company enters the seventh year of a very strong console cycle. The decline is anticipated to be affected by the launch of the Valve Steam machine early in the year and development progress on Microsoft's next-gen Xbox, featuring an AMD semi custom SOC, which is expected to support a launch in 2027.
Q:What are the recent achievements in the embedded segment?
A:In the embedded segment, revenue increased 3% year over year to $950 million, led by strength with testers and measurements and aerospace customers. There was a growing adoption of embedded Xs CPUs, with channel sell-through acceleration across end markets, including test measurement and emulation design. Record design wins were closed, totaling $17 billion in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year. New products were launched, such as AI Edge Gen 2 SoCs for low latency inference workloads and Spartan Ultra scale plus devices for cost-optimized applications.
Q:How is the company positioned to capture the growth opportunities in high performance and AI computing?
A:AMD is well positioned to capture growth in high performance and AI computing, which is entering a multi-year demand super cycle. The company has highly differentiated products, a proven execution track record, deep customer partnerships, and significant operational scale. With the breadth of solutions and partnerships required for end-to-end leadership, AMD is set to grow across all segments, with increased adoption of EPYC and Instinct, continued client share gains, and a return to growth in the embedded segment.
Q:What are the financial results and outlook for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025?
A:For the fourth quarter of 2025, AMD delivered record revenue of $10.3 billion, up 34% year over year, and gross margin of 57%, up 290 basis points year over year. Record earnings per share of $1.53 were reported, reflecting strong execution and operating leverage in the business model. For the fiscal year, record revenue of $34.6 billion was reported, with a gross margin of 52%. The company expects significant top line and bottom line growth in 2027, driven by increased adoption of EPYC and Instinct, continued client share gains, and a return to growth in the embedded segment.
Q:What was the year-over-year and sequential change in embedded segment revenue and its operating income?
A:The embedded segment revenue was 950 million, up 3% year over year and 11% sequentially. The embedded segment's operating income was 357 million, or 38% of revenue, compared to 362 million, or 39% of revenue, in the previous year.
Q:What are the expectations for the first quarter of 2026 in terms of revenue, growth, and other financial metrics?
A:The first quarter of 2026 is expected to have revenue of approximately $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, including about $100 million in sales to China. At the midpoint of the guidance, revenue is expected to be up 32% year over year, driven by growth in the data center and client and gaming segments. Fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 65%, with non-GAAP operating expense at about $3.05 billion, non-GAAP other net income at about $35 million, and a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 13%. Diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1.65 billion shares.
Q:Can you provide details on customer engagements and the demand for the new AI products like Mi 4, 5, and H10s?
A:The company is very happy with the progress of the Mi 450 series development and is on track for a second half launch. Customer engagements are proceeding well, with a strong relationship with OpenAI and plans for a ramp starting in the second half of the year into 2027. The company is also working closely with other customers interested in quickly ramping Mi 10, given its strength across inference and training. They feel very good about data center growth prospects in 2026 and beyond, with potential for tens of billions of dollars of data center AI revenue.
Q:What are the revenue implications for the Mi 450 in 2026?
A:The Mi 450 is positioned as an inflection point for the company in 2026, with revenue expected to start in the third quarter and to ramp up significantly in the fourth quarter. The company has multiple variants of the Mi 450 series, with the majority being rack scale solutions. Revenue will be recognized when shipped to the rack builder.
Q:What are the expectations for server CPU sales growth and data center revenue in 2026?
A:The company is very bullish about data center revenue, with the expectation of growing by more than 60% in 2026. This growth will be supported by various CPU products such as Epic (Turin and Genoa), and the Mi 450 ramp. The long-term target of greater than 60% growth is considered possible in 2026.
Q:What is the expected growth trajectory for the server CPU market and how is the company planning to meet increased demand?
A:The server CPU market is expected to grow in strong double digits in 2026 due to the relationship between CPU demand and the overall AI ramp. The company has increased its supply capacity for server CPUs and is working with supply chain partners to further address the strong demand.
Q:What factors are contributing to the company's improved gross margins?
A:The company's improved gross margins are attributed to a very favorable product mix across all business segments. In the data center, the ramp of new products like the I 355 is helping to increase gross margin in client business. The company is also gaining momentum in its commercial business and seeing the recovery of its embedded business, which is margin accretive.
Q:What risks are associated with transitioning the Mi 450 from silicon to racks and how is the company managing these risks?
A:The company is managing the risks associated with transitioning the Mi 450 from silicon to racks by conducting extensive testing at the rack scale level and the silicon level. This includes input from customers to ensure parallel testing. The company's expectation is to remain on track for their second half launch.
Q:How should the rapid increase in Opex be interpreted in relation to the growth of AI revenue?
A:The rapid increase in Opex is tied to the belief that it should grow slower than revenue. It is seen as an appropriate investment, especially as revenue increases and with the expectation of seeing leverage in Opex growth in 2026, particularly in the second half of the year when there is an inflection in revenue.
Q:What is the impact of the inventory reserve reversal in Q4 on the Q1 gross margin guide?
A:The inventory reserve reversal in Q4, which amounted to $360 million and was associated with Q4 revenue and the expected $100 million revenue in Q1, resulted in a very clean Q1 gross margin guide.
Q:How can the guide for Q1 to Q2 revenue growth be understood in terms of AI numbers?
A:Although the company does not provide AI numbers at the business level, the guide suggests that even if the Q4 China number is not recurring, growth from Q1 to Q2 would still be visible. This indicates positive momentum for AI revenue growth.
Q:What is the client market's performance like, and what are the expectations for PC market growth?
A:The client market has performed extremely well in 2025 with strong growth in ASP and unit growth. While the PC market is showing some signs of a decrease due to inflationary pressures, the company expects its PC business to grow in the second half of the year. The focus is on the enterprise segment, where there has been significant progress in 2025 and continued growth is expected in 2026.
Q:What are the competitive implications of the big GPU competitor's deal with an asteroid-based spatial architecture provider?
A:The competitive implications are viewed as positive as the AI market matures. As inference demand increases, the efficiency of the inference stack becomes more important. The company's triple architecture allows optimization across inference, training, and different stages of inference, positioning it well for future workload-optimized products.
Q:Is the timeline for the 6 GW ramp on track, and what is the relationship with OpenAI?
A:The timeline for the 6 GW ramp is on track, scheduled to start in the second half of the year. The company is working in partnership with OpenAI and CSP partners to deliver the Mi LoR series and ramp production. While there is optimism about the Mi 450 ramp for OpenAI, the company is also working with other customers to ramp the series in the same time frame.
Q:How does the x86 architecture compare with Arm in the context of server CPUs and AI agents?
A:There is a high demand for high-performance x86 CPUs for AI processes and agents that involve a lot of traditional CPU tasks. The majority of these tasks are currently using x86 technology. However, the competitive dynamic with x86 and Nvidia's offerings in the server CPU market is highlighted as an area of interest, especially considering the competitor's plans to release an Arm CPU in the second half.
Q:What are the characteristics of Epic, and how does it contribute to AI infrastructure?
A:Epic is characterized by optimized workload distribution, providing the best cloud and enterprise processors, along with lower-cost variants for storage and other elements. It contributes to AI infrastructure by being highly optimized for all workloads and continuing to expand its footprint with customer collaboration.
Q:How does HBM procurement affect Epic's supply chain and product development?
A:HBM procurement affects Epic's supply chain and product development through long-term collaboration with suppliers based on forecasted demand and development needs. Epic's supply chain is well-positioned due to extensive planning for the ramp in both CPU and GPU business over the past couple of years and is further secured by multi-year agreements that extend beyond current supply chain tensions.
Q:Does the company plan to follow competitors in terms of architectural changes for its system accelerators?
A:The company plans to follow competitors in terms of architectural changes for its system accelerators to some extent. With a flexible architecture, they aim to provide different system solutions catering to varied requirements, including high-end applications and enterprise AI, which necessitates a range of form factors and investment across the spectrum.
Q:How does each new generation of products affect gross margin, and what is the expected growth trajectory?
A:Each new generation of products typically provides more capabilities and memory, which should result in an improved gross margin. Initially, during the ramp phase, gross margins tend to be lower, but as production scales and performance improves, there is growth margin improvement within each generation. In the long term, each new generation should have a higher gross margin than the previous one.
Q:What is the projected impact of the gaming segment on revenue, especially in 2026?
A:The gaming segment is expected to significantly impact revenue in 2026 with a substantial double-digit decline. This follows a period of growth, and while the new generation is anticipated to ramp in 2027, the short-term outlook is for a decrease in revenue.
Q:Are there any concerns regarding supply constraints affecting the ramp in the second half of the year?
A:There are no concerns regarding supply constraints affecting the ramp in the second half of the year. The company is planning the ramp at every component level, and supply is not expected to limit the data center AI ramp. The priority is ensuring that data center ramps go well, including for AI and CPUs, with an aggressive and doable ramp plan in place.
Q:What are the largest investment areas and Opex investment areas for 2025 and 2026?
A:The largest investments in 2025 are focused on data center AI, accelerating the hardware roadmap, expanding software capabilities, acquiring Z T systems for system-level solutions and capabilities, and investing in go-to-market expansion to support revenue growth and commercial and enterprise business growth for CPUs. In 2026, the company expects to continue investing aggressively, with a focus on revenue expansion outpacing operating expense increase to drive earnings per share expansion.
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