逆全球化与新需求共振，2026有色牛市能否续写？ 矿业ETF投资价值解读
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会议摘要
The conversation analyzed the trend of the commodity market in 2026, pointing out that in the context of geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, varieties such as rare earths, gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium are performing well due to supply and demand relationship, policy support, and the growth of new energy demand. It is recommended to layout the non-ferrous sector through tools such as mining ETFs and gold fund ETFs to avoid individual stock risks and seize investment opportunities. Gold is expected to rise in the medium to long term, while copper, aluminum, and lithium are facing tight supply and demand and increasing demand for new energy, and rare earths are experiencing stable growth. It is recommended to pay attention to gold stocks for potential rebound and use the official account and mini-program to acquire investment reference.
会议速览
Sino-US Resonance in 2026: Outlook for the Year of Economic Expansion and Bull Market in CommoditiesThe dialogue analyzed the economic prospects of 2026 as the beginning year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan and the midterm election year in the United States, pointing out that China and the US may form a synchronous economic cycle. On the Chinese side, years ending in six or one usually accompany economic policy expansion, with infrastructure investment possibly becoming a key focus of economic growth. On the US side, the presidential election cycle affects fiscal and monetary policy, with industrial metal prices showing a four-year cycle pattern. Historical data shows that 2006-2007 saw a bull market in commodities, and 2026 may see a repeat of this trend.
Analysis of the bull market in colored metals under the background of big power games and energy revolution.The dialogue delves into how resource nationalism can drive the bull market in colored metals against the backdrop of great power competition and energy revolution. It emphasizes that the essence behind the supply and demand contradiction is shifting from efficiency-first to security-first, as well as the role of key mineral resources in geopolitics. It points out that the root of this round of supply chain differentiation and conflict in asset values lies in the outbreak of hoarding ability.
During the Cold War, the soaring metal prices suggest a bullish outlook for commodity markets amidst geopolitical tensions.Looking back at the case of soaring metal prices during the Cold War period, exploring the structural characteristics of the commodity bull market under the current geopolitical game, emphasizing the dominant pricing logic of the capital market, and highlighting the advantages of precious metals and industrial metals. Need to focus on the main line of non-ferrous metals, understand the supply and demand gap as the core condition for the rise.
Global gold reserves increase and analysis of financial credit risksFrom a long-term perspective, gold is in a major upward cycle, with central banks around the world, especially the People's Bank of China, continuing to increase their holdings of gold, demonstrating its importance as a safe haven asset. The change in attitude of the US President towards Greenland and the potential capital war that may ensue, suggest that the US dollar credit system is being questioned, and the opening of capital flow and safe haven logic. The speech by the Canadian Prime Minister at Davos implies the decline of the old order and the arrival of a new order, triggering new thinking on US dollar credit and resource hedging. Poland's approval of a large-scale gold purchase plan emphasizes the special role of gold independent of monetary policy in resisting financial shocks, and it is expected that global central bank gold purchases will continue to support the gold market.
Gold and copper market trend analysis: Safe-haven sentiment and supply-demand tensions drive prices higher.The analysis indicates that loose monetary policy, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical uncertainty are favorable for gold, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The copper market is bullish due to tight supply and demand, as well as growth in demand from AI and the energy revolution. Supply shortage in the future is a key theme.
Analysis of supply and demand in the copper and aluminum market and the impact of tariffs.The dialogue delves into the trends of the copper and aluminum markets under the influence of supply and demand relationships, inventory changes, and tariff policies. The copper market is driven by cyclical and structural factors, with high US inventories affecting the global market, and tariff policies potentially causing copper price fluctuations. The aluminum market, on the other hand, benefits from domestic advantages of low energy consumption and growth in demand for new energy sources. Despite current fundamental pressures, the loose macro environment supports aluminum prices.
Precious Metals and Rare Metals Market Dynamics: Lithium Price Increase and Growing Demand for Rare Earth Elements.The price of lithium carbonate has recently broken through previous highs, with energy storage demand exceeding expectations and becoming a new driving force for the industry. Although the new energy vehicle market is facing a reduction in subsidies, overall demand still has growth potential. The rare earth sector has elevated its strategic positioning due to geopolitical conflicts, with the supply side affected by domestic quota controls and the demand side benefiting from emerging areas such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots. The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has unexpectedly risen, with the sector's valuation and profitability both increasing, making it a strategic investment opportunity.
Trends in the commodity market and investment strategies in the non-ferrous sector in 2026.In early 2026, commodities continued to strengthen, but the difficulty of participation increased. Indexing tools such as mining ETFs are recommended as a convenient way to participate in the non-ferrous market, especially in mining ETFs and gold fund ETFs, because they focus on resource companies, have high profit elasticity, and have seen an increase in valuation premiums, with outstanding performance. Gold and gold stocks are also seen as investment opportunities, with potential for a rebound in gold stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to long-term asset allocation and grasp the investment trends of the non-ferrous sector and gold.
要点回答
Q：In the performance of global major asset classes in the past decade, how has the position of gold been?
A：Gold has been very hot in the past decade, especially last year, against a backdrop of global monetary policy differentiation and reshaping of the geopolitical landscape, precious metals have performed strongly, leading the market.
Q：How is the performance of the colored plate sector?
A：Color plates outperformed, leading the industry with approximately 90% of the increase. This is mainly due to the industrial attributes driven by factors such as weakening US dollar credit, concentration properties, industrial revolution, and supply relationships.
Q：What is the outlook for 2026? What is the impact of the five-year plan on infrastructure investment?
A：It is expected that in 2026, as the year of the start of China's Fifteenth Five-Year Plan and the year of the mid-term elections in the United States, there may be a key resonance. In this context, real estate investment will stabilize and rebound, infrastructure investment will strengthen, fiscal expenditure will expand, and the infrastructure sector may become an important focus of economic growth. According to historical data, in the year of the start of a five-year plan, infrastructure investment usually experiences a significant pulse-like increase. Due to the slowdown in the pace of major project construction in recent years and the impact of local government debt restrictions, infrastructure investment has been affected, but is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026.
Q：Translation: Overseas, how is the economic cycle in the United States? Will there be any resonance between the economic cycles of China and the United States?
A：The economic policy in the United States is related to presidential elections, which typically occur every four years. Industrial metal prices often hit bottom before the mid-term elections in the United States, and after a new president takes office, in order to fulfill their promises, they will push for fiscal and monetary policy expansion, leading to a rapid rise in industrial metal prices. China has a five-year cycle, while the United States has a four-year cycle, and the two resonate approximately every 20 years. Next year (2026) happens to correspond to the peak of the previous cycle, which may be an important time node for the resonance between China and the United States.
Q：In the current context, how do big power games and energy revolutions affect commodities?
A：The current bull market in commodities is more influenced by the background of big power games and energy revolutions. The Monroe Doctrine proposed by the United States has strengthened the priority of national security, and a wave of resource nationalism is surging. Many countries are using policy measures to strengthen control over resources, which also forms the basis of the bull market in commodities.
Q：In which periods did resource nationalism appear?
A：In history, there have been two major waves of resource nationalism, after World War II and after the global financial crisis of 2008. This wave of resource nationalism focuses on key mineral resources, investment opportunities brought by green transformation in industries, and a shift from unilateral cooperation to confrontation in geopolitical tools.
Q：From the perspective of supply and demand contradictions, what do you think is the fundamental reason for the current bull market in non-ferrous metals?
A：On the surface, the colored bull market seems to be caused by supply and demand contradictions, but in essence, it may be a shift from efficiency first to safety first. China has seized the pricing power of rare earth critical construction and deepened its manufacturing advantages; while the United States has hoarded more than half of the copper inventory, this asymmetric resource reserve has led to supply chain differentiation and conflicts in asset value.
Q：In historical cases, such as during the Cold War period, how much did the price of strategic metals increase?
A：During the Cold War, small metals like tungsten experienced a significant increase in price, rising from a few dollars per pound to seven or eight dollars, even increasing by seven or eight times.
Q：Is there a regular cycle for product rotation, and should we now focus on the oil and agricultural product markets?
A：Products do indeed go through a cycle of rotation, from economic recession to recovery and then to overheating, with different demands at different stages. However, this current cycle is different from history. It is not simply driven by economic recovery, but rather by loose global liquidity overlaid with geopolitical games leading to fund-price domination, with resource scarcity and strategic value becoming the core logic.
Q：In the current environment, what are the new demand growth points for the color sector?
A：The demand for colored plates continues to grow, such as data center power infrastructure, new energy transformation, etc. In the current commodity bull market, structural characteristics are obvious, and precious metals and industrial metals still play a relatively dominant role.
Q：In terms of the gold market, how do you view its trend from a long-term perspective?
A：From a long-term perspective, the price of gold is influenced by financial attributes and credit risks. In the current upward phase of the cycle, central banks around the world continue to increase their gold reserves. From a long-term perspective, the price of gold is still in an upward trend.
Q：What recent major events have affected the volatility of global financial markets?
A：Recently, there has been a shift in US President Trump's attitude towards Greenland, and European countries are considering reducing or even completely divesting from US bonds. These events reflect geopolitical risks and market concerns about future uncertainty, which may accelerate the logic of de-Americanization.
Q：Did Dario predict that the President's policies could trigger a capital war and recommend using gold as a hedge tool?
A：Yes, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio did suggest that the policies of the American president could lead to a capital war, and recommended that investors use gold as an important hedge tool and asset reserve.
Q：What views did Canadian Prime Minister Hani express in his speech at Davos?
A：Prime Minister Hani pointed out in his speech at Davos that in the era of great power competition, the rule-based order is fading away and traditional ways of trading are no longer effective. He emphasized that we are in a period of rupture rather than transition, and believed that a new order needs to be embraced. This reflects many countries' reconsideration of the US dollar credit system and global resource and hedging strategies.
Q：What recent actions has the Polish central bank taken to buy gold? What factors are currently supporting the rise in gold prices?
A：The Polish central bank recently approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves from 550 tons to 700 tons. The Polish central bank insists that gold plays a special role in their reserve structure, able to withstand financial shocks and independent of the monetary policy decisions of other countries. Factors supporting the rise in gold include monetary easing policies, safe haven properties, global decentralization trends, and geopolitical disruptions (such as US foreign policy, Iran, and Ukraine situations). In addition, the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates this year, and the environment of falling inflation is favorable for gold assets that do not pay interest. In terms of fund flows, ETF inflows and weakness in the US dollar also indicate that the market is actively allocating gold.
Q：What are your expectations for the trend of the gold price?
A：Several senior analysts believe that the key point of the rise in gold prices may just be a small episode in the rising process, with price expectations generally being raised. Goldman Sachs has also raised its target price to $5400 and believes that the upside risk has already begun to materialize. In the long run, the uncertainty brought by US policies and geopolitical disturbances is the main logic for buying gold. Investors are advised to buy on dips, seize the opportunity of medium-term pullbacks, and pay attention to risk control.
Q：How is the recent volatility of gold?
A：Recently, the volatility of gold has been relatively low and has remained stable, which may be a sign of strong buying pressure and represent the possibility of an upward trend. Looking at the ETF flow data, the two largest gold ETFs globally saw inflows of funds last week, which may have reversed the trend of continuous outflows seen earlier.
Q：What are the main factors influencing the cyclical fluctuations of copper prices?
A：The core factors causing the periodic fluctuations in copper prices mainly come from the demand side, as well as the long-term effects brought about by the industrial revolution. For example, factors such as global economic recovery, growth in Chinese demand, expectations of Fed rate cuts, etc., have all catalyzed rises in copper prices. In recent years, the compounding effects of supply chain disruptions, tight copper mine supply, and changes in Fed policy have led to a sustained increase in copper prices.
Q：What are the main aspects in which the supply side affects the price of copper?
A：The impact of the supply side on copper prices is mainly reflected in the ongoing shortages of mines and the limited new discoveries of mineral resources. Over the past decade, the number of new mines discovered has significantly decreased, and the amount of resources has also been greatly reduced. Additionally, it takes an average of 16 years from mining to production, leading to the possibility of supply shortages in the coming years. Furthermore, structural factors such as continuous increases in inventories in regions like the United States have led to shortages of copper in other parts of the world, exacerbating market tension even further.
Q：What are the growth points of demand for copper from the demand side?
A：The growth point on the demand side lies in the arrival of the electrical era driving the expansion of copper demand, including the growth in demand in the energy revolution and AI fields, making copper play a key role in this economic cycle similar to infrastructure and industrial construction - the veins and blood.
Q：How does inventory affect copper prices?
A：The impact of inventory issues on copper prices mainly comes from cyclical and structural factors. Cyclical factors such as interest rate cuts in the United States and macroeconomic cycles can be anticipated, while structural factors involve black swan events or unforeseen disturbances. Currently, copper inventories in the US have increased significantly, and when a region consumes a small proportion of global copper but hoards close to half of the global supply, shortages in other regions may occur. Especially before the 630 tariff disturbance, this siphoning effect could lead to a decline in copper prices; afterwards, whether the tariffs are canceled, maintained, or delayed, they could have different impacts on copper prices.
Q：What does the weakening of smelter processing fees TC/RC mean?
A：The continuous decline in processing fees TC/RC of smelters indicates that with the support of high-grade by-products such as sulfuric acid and rare metals, smelters can only achieve meager profits, and this situation is difficult to sustain in the long term. This indirectly confirms the supply shortage situation, although copper prices may slow down in the short term, from a long-term perspective, they still have strong upward momentum.
Q：How is the situation in the aluminum market?
A：In terms of the aluminum market, the supply side is limited by the ceiling. Domestic electrolytic aluminum, as a benchmark for anti-hollowing, is protected by policies. The power supply is tight in developed countries and developing countries. Demand continues to exceed expectations, shifting from single-drive of new energy to comprehensive opening in electricity, transportation, and industrial materials. At the same time, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises enjoy electricity price advantages due to low energy consumption. The overall fundamentals still have support in the macro environment and geopolitical risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will be affected by supply disturbances, the outbreak of energy storage demand, and low inventory levels throughout the year.
Q：How is the current situation of the lithium carbonate market?
A：The lithium carbonate market is currently showing a strong upward trend, with prices breaking through previous highs. Energy storage demand has exceeded expectations, becoming the second growth curve in the industry. Although the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles may affect growth, the demand for power batteries will be driven by new scenes such as electric heavy trucks and ships, as well as increased energy density per cell. High-frequency data shows that lithium carbonate inventory is still decreasing, and lithium prices are difficult to fall. With lithium prices stabilizing at new highs, there is hope for an increase in equity opportunities.
Q：What is the current supply and demand situation of the rare earth sector, and what is the forecast for future price trends?
A：Rare earth plates are subject to global quota control policies on the supply side, and supply is relatively rigid. On the demand side, the rapid development of new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, electric motor bearings, and other emerging fields, as well as emerging applications such as low-altitude economy, will bring high-speed growth in demand for rare earths. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side will continue to expand in 2026, and the supply-demand gap may lead to a steady increase in rare earth prices.
Q：How has the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide performed from the beginning of the year until now? Has it brought certain pressure to market participants?
A：Since the beginning of the year, the price of neodymium oxide has risen more than expected. Some bearish funds may have urgently entered the market for purchasing due to enterprises needing to ensure normal production, further driving up prices of research and development tools and other varieties. This has resulted in strong actual price performance and an upward trend, despite concerns in the market about weak demand, insufficient orders, and high prices.
Q：What are the challenges and possible strategies for investing in the commodity market in the current environment?
A：Currently, the commodity market continues to strengthen on the basis of last year, but the difficulty for investors to participate has increased, including the fact that prices of certain varieties are already high, the risks and difficulties on the futures side have increased (such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange increasing the daily price limits and margin requirements for metals such as copper and aluminum). In a high volatility environment, longer duration asset allocation may be more optimal. For equity investments, directly betting on individual stocks faces greater market timing risks and tracking difficulties, so it is recommended to participate in the non-ferrous sector market through index tools (such as mining ETFs) to reduce the risk of individual stocks.
Q：What are the characteristics of mining ETFs compared to other metal ETFs, and why are they able to achieve better performance?
A：Mining ETFs focus on companies with colored mineral resources. Although the industry distribution is similar to that of colored ETFs, the core characteristic lies in targeting the extraction process, with fewer component stocks and a more concentrated leading effect. Additionally, because mining company profits are strongly linked to metal prices, mining ETFs have higher profit elasticity when resource prices rise. Data shows that mining ETFs perform well in terms of net profit growth rate and revenue year-on-year growth rate, and in clear commodity markets, resource-based targets typically receive higher market valuation premiums.
Q：How should investors position themselves in the colored sector, and which specific investment tools are recommended?
A：Investors can pay attention to mining industry indices and related ETFs, such as mining ETF 561330. Its industry distribution is balanced, showing significant leading effects, with high profit elasticity. It has higher elasticity when rising and smaller retracements during pullbacks, with impressive historical returns. In addition, for gold layout, the recommended gold ETF 518800, with a scale close to 30 billion, has excellent returns in the past three years. At the same time, there are opportunities for gold stocks to catch up, which can be a better buying point during pullbacks. The team also provides a WeChat public account and mini programs, offering timing signals, trading strategies, market analysis, and other services to help investors seize investment opportunities in the non-ferrous sector.
