“银华三点半”特别策划——银华基金2026年度投资策略
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会议摘要
The dialogue delved into the relationship between the downward cycle of PPI and the slow global recovery, pointing out that the current economic environment may give birth to a weak recovery cycle. The discussion focused on anti-insular growth, supply-side reforms, and the improvement of the global market position of the chemical and non-ferrous industries. Investment opportunities in the technology sector are concentrated in the semiconductor, AI industry chain, commercial aerospace, and defense sectors, emphasizing the search for high industry prosperity, stable supply and demand structure, and reasonably valued quality targets. China Huarong Fund looks ahead to future investment discussions aimed at helping investors grasp the main trends of industrial evolution and investment opportunities, especially in long-term investment strategies under the three major trends of localization, decarbonization, and intelligence.
会议速览
Key Trends and Investment Opportunities in the Capital Markets of 2026: Active Equity Special SessionThe year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan in China. The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience in a complex environment, with the acceleration of the transition from old to new driving forces. YinHua Fund will explore investment trends under national strategies such as technological innovation, green transformation, and boosting domestic demand, focusing on active equity, ETF asset allocation, fixed income, and other dimensions. Today's focus is on active equity. Through roundtable discussions, experts will systematically interpret the industry logic and investment opportunities during the PPI recovery cycle, aiming to provide investors with long-term and correct investment strategies.
Exploring the Relationship between the Long-term Downward Trend of PPI and Global Economic RecoveryThe conversation revolves around the characteristics of the PPI cycle, pointing out that the current downward cycle of the PPI is unusually long, close to 40 months, mainly attributed to insufficient global demand, especially the negative contributions from the real estate and oil industries. The analysis believes that the weak global economic recovery is the fundamental reason for the long-term stagnation of the PPI.
Weak Recovery Expected for PPI: Analysis of Leading M1 Signal and Supply-Demand PatternsThe viewpoint of a possible weak recovery cycle for PPI was discussed, based on the recovery signal of M1 leading indicator, the weakening negative contribution factors in PPI structure, and potential impact of supply-side reform. It is pointed out that in the context of no significant improvement in demand, relying solely on supply-side changes may lead to a weak recovery, in contrast to the supply-side reform cycle of 2015-2016.
Comparison between the current round of anti-inner circles and the previous round of supply-side reform: Differences between market participants and recovery expectations.The dialogue reviewed the supply-side reforms since 2016, which involved eliminating outdated production capacity through administrative means, improving supply and demand patterns, and increasing industry concentration. The current round of anti-industry internal competition is focusing on market-based collaboration among large enterprises, with the aim of restoring industry profitability levels through self-discipline and coordination, rather than pursuing excessive profits. The recovery in this round is expected to be moderate, but thanks to the increase in the net assets of leading enterprises, a reasonable price repair can bring significant improvements in profits, in sharp contrast to the previous round of reforms.
Analysis of the growth of production capacity of large enterprises and the effectiveness of supply-side reforms: A case study of the electrolytic aluminum industry.The potential for profit growth of large enterprises after the capacity cycle was discussed, particularly emphasizing the significant effectiveness of the non-ferrous industry, especially the electrolytic aluminum industry, after the supply-side reform. In 2017, policies strictly controlled the capacity of electrolytic aluminum, stabilizing it within the red line of 45 million tons, avoiding excessive competition and thus increasing corporate profits. The success of the electrolytic aluminum industry is seen as a model for other industries to counter the phenomenon of internal competition, and this model may be replicated in more industries in the future.
Analysis of industry transformation and cyclical improvement under the supply-side reform.The dialogue discussed the impact of supply-side reforms on the coal and electrolytic aluminum industries, pointing out that these two industries have transitioned from cyclicality to dividend stock characteristics, mainly benefiting from the control of new production capacity and reduced capital expenditures, thereby enhancing enterprise free cash flow. At the same time, an analysis from the perspectives of inventory and production capacity cycles was conducted on the sustainability of the improvement in PPI sentiment, emphasizing that the shift of capital expenditures in industries such as chemicals to negative and the decline in projects under construction indicate that the production capacity cycle is entering a contraction or digestion phase, laying the foundation for a reversal in supply and demand, predicting that cyclical improvements may accelerate.
Geopolitics and international situations' impact on commodity prices and discussion on the correlation with Producer Price Index (PPI).Discussed the impact of geopolitics, trade wars, and other factors on commodity prices, particularly on the Producer Price Index (PPI). Emphasized the performance of base metals and gold under geopolitical uncertainty, analyzed the role of the US dollar cycle and Federal Reserve policies on commodity prices, as well as the relationship between the chemical industry and oil prices. Pointed out the strengthening effect of geopolitical changes on the scarcity of natural resources.
Analysis of global oil price fluctuations and exploration of the position of the petrochemical industry in globalization.The dialogue provides a detailed analysis of the fluctuation of oil prices, pointing out that the slowdown in U.S. shale oil production growth and the decrease in global oil capital expenditure have led to supply constraints, predicting limited downward space for oil prices. At the same time, it discusses that in a stable economic environment, oil prices are in a bottoming out phase and may rise due to demand exceeding expectations, which will have a positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and industries. Additionally, it explores the rise in the global industry status of Chinese chemical companies, as some companies have achieved historic highs even in the context of low oil prices and weak economic demand, reflecting their increased competitiveness.
Rise of the Chinese chemical industry: Global production capacity accounts for over half, Europe and America face challenges.In the global chemical industry output value, China accounts for nearly 50%, becoming the industry leader. Europe is continuously reducing production capacity due to high energy costs and the retirement of old facilities; although the United States has low energy costs, issues such as labor, safety, environmental protection, and industrial chain matching restrict the development of the chemical industry. China leads the global market share in products such as PTA, organic silicon, and titanium dioxide, and also supplies the global market with fine chemical products such as pesticides and vitamins. With the expectation of a cyclical recovery, leading enterprises in China are strengthening their market pricing power.
Analysis of investment opportunities in the chemical industry: Supply and demand situation and industry chain analysis.Discussed investment opportunities in the chemical industry, with a focus on analyzing the oil-related industry chain, the PTA industry chain, the chemical fiber industry chain, as well as the titanium dioxide and lithium industry in the real estate chain. It is pointed out that the key to investment opportunities is the expectation of rising oil prices and the optimization of supply and demand patterns. Most chemical products prices are rebounding from the bottom, industry concentration is increasing, and operating rates are rising, which is expected to bring considerable elasticity.
Investment analysis of the non-ferrous metals industry: coexistence of demand growth and inventory fluctuations.The investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal industry after experiencing a sharp rise last year were discussed. It was pointed out that industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have performed steadily due to a good supply-demand structure, but attention should be paid to short-term volatility risks brought about by accumulated inventories. In the long term, under a weak US dollar background, there is still room for upward movement in non-ferrous metal futures prices, but in the short term, the US dollar may strengthen due to geopolitical factors, affecting price stability. In terms of specific sectors, electrolytic aluminum benefits from Chinese production capacity control, while copper faces challenges from high inventories in the United States.
Analysis of fluctuations in the prices of non-ferrous metals and the outlook of the gold market.Discusses the potential inhibitory effect of rising prices of non-ferrous metals on downstream demand, as well as the long-term potential and short-term volatility of gold as a hedge tool, and suggests that investors may consider entering the non-ferrous sector on a pullback.
Investment opportunities in new materials and metals under the wave of technology.The dialogue deeply explores the changes in supply and demand of traditional metals and new materials, as well as their investment potential, in the context of the AI-driven semiconductor expansion cycle and global growth in electricity demand. It particularly emphasizes the key role of materials such as lithium carbonate and copper in energy storage and grid construction, as well as the demand for high-precision materials in frontier areas such as controlled nuclear fusion and robotics, revealing both existing supply and demand reversal elasticity and dual investment opportunities in high value-added materials in the midstream and upstream sectors.
Technology market and semiconductor sector: A dynamic perspective in the context of high growth.Discussed this year's strong performance of the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, pointing out their key role in driving high-quality economic transformation. Faced with the high market rallies, it is suggested to evaluate their value from a dynamic, rather than static perspective, emphasizing the long-term growth potential driven by AI and localization efforts.
Analysis of investment value and growth in the semiconductor cycle in the AI industry chain.Discussed the rapid development of the global AI industry, particularly the investment value of the computing power industry chain. It is pointed out that although China's AI investment lags behind overseas, it has the potential to catch up with the help of the engineer dividend and application foundation. Emphasized the cycle and growth attributes of the semiconductor industry, and suggested investing in double-click opportunities that combine cycle and growth. The increasing rate of domestic production in China is nurturing investment opportunities.
Turning point judgment in technology investment and valuation collapse warning strategyDiscussed the investment value in the 5% to 20% penetration rate stage of the technology product lifecycle, as well as the stable growth opportunities in the 20% to 50% stage. Emphasized the importance of early warning indicators such as technological substitution, declining competitiveness of enterprises, and overcapacity in predicting the collapse of valuation in the background of technological iteration. Proposed observing changes in the competitive landscape of enterprises and profit margins to guard against short-term valuation risks.
Technology Growth Stock Investment Strategy: The key to balancing risk and return.The discussion focused on how to control drawdowns in technology growth stock investments by setting reasonable return expectations and flexible stop-loss strategies. It emphasized the long-term investment opportunities in the trend of domestication, predicting that future performance growth rates could reach twenty to thirty percent. It was also believed that even in the face of valuation declines, a expected return of 10% to 15% could still be achieved. It advocates pursuing visible performance growth with smaller drawdowns.
Exploring Investment Value in Commercial Aerospace and Military Industry Sectors: Early Opportunities and High Volatility.The investment value of commercial aerospace and military industry sectors was discussed, pointing out that although the market is hot, the performance is not yet stable and mostly based on speculative themes. The characteristics of the early stages of the industry were emphasized, such as the need for time for technology maturation and cost reduction, but long-term investment opportunities are vast. It is recommended that investors differentiate between sub-sectors and company competitiveness, pay attention to high volatility risks, and look for excellent companies with large long-term growth potential.
Growth stock investment: evaluating the true contribution of new technology to a company's cash flow.Discussed in growth stock investment, how to assess whether new technologies can bring certain cash flow and emphasized the importance of pragmatically evaluating the incremental contribution of new technologies to corporate revenue and profit, as well as the importance of crossing technology competitiveness and market acceptance nodes.
The Perspective of Competition and Investment in AI Between China and the United States: Differences in Engineering Talent Dividend and Technology Mass Production.The dialogue revolves around the core competitive strengths in the field of AI between China and the United States, pointing out that China has advantages in terms of the engineer dividend and the ability to implement applications, while the United States excels in technical leadership and research and development applications. There are differences in investment strategies between the two sides, with China focusing on indigenization and technology catch-up under national will, while the United States emphasizes technology application and social efficiency improvement, but both are committed to finding companies with the most certain growth opportunities.
Exploring future investment opportunities in innovative drugs, national defense military industry, and controllable nuclear fusion.Discussed the engineer dividend and population advantage in the field of innovative drugs in China, as well as the potential for localization improvement in the field of national defense and military industry, especially in the production of large aircraft. Finally, mentioned the new industry opportunities brought by the breakthrough in controlled nuclear fusion technology, emphasizing the investment value of these fields in the coming years.
Technology fund managers discuss enthusiastically: The strategy of finding low opportunities in booming industries.The conversation revolves around how technology fund managers can find opportunities in the current booming industry. They emphasize on the importance of balancing and adjusting strategies dynamically based on performance growth rate, valuation match, as well as trends in decarbonization, localization, and intelligence within familiar technology sectors. Even under pressure from market fluctuations, they tend to seek opportunities in established tracks rather than turning to traditional paths.
要点回答
Q：In the PPI recovery cycle, we would like to ask you to analyze the characteristics and similarities and differences of this round of PPI cycle compared to previous cycles.
A：This round of PPI cycle has several characteristics. First, its downward cycle is very long, close to 40 months, which is relatively rare in past statistical data. The second characteristic is that the insufficient global overall demand is the main reason for the decline in PPI, with significant negative contributions from the real estate industry chain and the oil industry chain. As the global economic recovery process is prolonged, it has brought about a long-term downward trend in PPI.
Q：How do you think the elasticity of the rebound and recovery of PPI will be after a long period of decline?
A：Currently, based on some leading indicators such as the trend of M1 changes and the weakening impact of some components that have dragged down the PPI structure in the past (such as the real estate industry chain and the oil industry chain), we judge that the PPI may experience a weak recovery. However, the reason why it is called a weak recovery instead of a strong recovery is that after a long period of decline in the PPI, market expectations are gradually improving. Although there has been some improvement on the supply side, if there is no significant increase in demand, the strength of the recovery may be weak.
Q：How do you view the connection and difference between the current measures to combat overworking and the supply-side reform of a few years ago?
A：This round of anti-internal competition and the previous round of supply-side reform have similar historical backgrounds, namely, experiencing a long period of PPI at a low level. However, there are significant differences in the main market participants. The previous round of supply-side reform mainly eliminated outdated production capacity through administrative means, while this round is dominated by large enterprises for capacity expansion. In addition, this round of anti-internal competition adopts more market-oriented measures, promoting the industry back to normal profit levels through industry self-regulation and enterprise collaboration, rather than simply pursuing profit maximization. Moreover, the significant increase in net assets of leading enterprises in this round makes it possible for enterprise profits to increase significantly with only slight adjustments in prices.
Q：What is your opinion on the performance of the colored industry in this round of anti-internals competition?
A：The colored industry is a successful example of the last round of supply side reform, especially in the electrolytic aluminum industry, where profits have gradually been released through strict control of production capacity. It is expected that in this round of anti-inner circle, industries like electrolytic aluminum may replicate the successful historical path, shifting from cyclical industries to dividend-like investment directions. Some industries, such as coal and electrolytic aluminum, have shown this trend, and with increased control over new production capacity, companies are more likely to convert profits into free cash flow.
Q：From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, what is the current situation of the chemical industry?
A：Capital expenditure in the chemical industry has turned negative, with fixed asset investment completion in the first 11 months of 2025 down by about 8%. The financial reports of listed companies for the first three quarters show that their ongoing construction projects have been declining for three consecutive quarters and to a significant extent, indicating that the capacity cycle has shifted from expansion to contraction or adjustment. Currently, the utilization rate of most sub-industries has rebounded to around 80%, laying the foundation for a reversal in supply and demand.
Q：What does the continuous decrease in construction projects mean?
A：If the ongoing construction projects are constantly decreasing, it could be due to a lack of new investments, or existing construction projects have been converted into fixed assets and are starting production. If the capacity utilization rate can be increased, it indicates that a cyclical recovery is underway.
Q：What impact does geopolitics have on PPI and upstream resource prices?
A：Geopolitical instability can drive up the prices of precious metals such as gold, as they serve as a hedge against currency fluctuations and benefit from loose liquidity and the long-term backdrop of Fed rate cuts. In addition, geopolitical changes can enhance the scarcity attributes of commodities, such as the tariff war during the Trump era causing inventory shifts and impacting the price volatility of industrial metals.
Q：How do you view the current oil price situation and its impact on the future?
A：From a static perspective, the price of oil is not considered to be too high and has a certain value as an investment. In the long term, as shale oil technology reaches its limit and the growth of US crude oil production slows down, global conventional oil and gas investments decrease, causing a strong constraint on the supply side, therefore limiting the downward potential of oil prices. The increase in production by OPEC has not led to a significant decrease in oil prices, further confirming the suppressing effect of the supply side. In the current relatively stable global economic environment, oil prices may be in a bottoming out phase and could potentially increase due to higher than expected demand.
Q：How has the position of Chinese chemical industry enterprises changed on the global stage?
A：Currently, China's chemical industry accounts for nearly 50% of global output, surpassing Europe and America to become the dominant force. After the Russia-Ukraine war, the rising energy costs in Europe and the aging equipment have led to a gradual exit of production capacity; while the United States has cost advantages, it faces challenges in terms of labor costs, safety and environmental considerations, and industrial chain support, leading to limited new chemical production capacity. Chinese companies dominate in many fields such as PTA, organosilicon, and titanium dioxide, as the expectation of a cyclical recovery strengthens, leading companies have taken the lead and are re-pricing.
Q：In which industries and sub-industries are the investment opportunities in the chemical industry mainly distributed?
A：Investment opportunities are mainly concentrated in industries related to oil, such as the oil refining industry chain. Due to the bottoming out and possible increase in oil prices, the prices of products are stable and can obtain better price differentials. Another investment opportunity is the PTA industry chain, most of its products are related to oil prices. If oil prices remain stable and the supply-demand pattern is good, it is expected to bring a good return on investment.
Q：What are the investment opportunities in the chemical industry closely related to oil prices?
A：In the chemical industry closely related to oil prices, there are some industrial chains such as the cultural industry chain, which has relatively stable demand and most of the supply is domestic. When supply and demand reach a tight balance, there will be good investment opportunities. In addition, the chemical fiber industry chain is also an example, with some varieties having high operating rates, and the possibility of large giants exiting production capacity, creating investment space for the industry.
Q：How does the real estate chain perform in the chemical industry?
A：Titanium dioxide in the real estate chain is a demand industry in the chemical industry, and at the same time, industries such as environmental protection are increasing in concentration, with rising production rates, undergoing supply-side reforms. Due to the current low profit and operating cycle of the real estate chain, if it develops upward, it has great elasticity, so it is also worth paying attention to as an investment area.
Q：How is the overall performance of the chemical industry?
A：In the chemical industry, the prices of most products have gradually risen from the bottom, with a lackluster performance last year. It is expected that as product prices continue to rise, their performance this year will gradually become apparent.
Q：How to view investment opportunities in the colored industry after a significant increase?
A：The non-ferrous industry is experiencing a strong upward trend in futures and stock prices, but there may be increased volatility in 2026. In the long-term weak US dollar environment, non-ferrous metal futures prices still have room to rise, but investors need to be cautious of market expectations leading to overpricing and the impact of short-term US dollar strengthening. Among the sub-categories, aluminum has a good supply structure, strong Chinese market influence, proper capacity control, and a relatively healthy supply and demand situation.
Q：How do you view the demand pull of emerging industries on industrial metals?
A：Emerging industries such as AI and the semiconductor industry are in an expansion period. The demand for semiconductor materials (such as copper) has increased significantly, driving the demand for higher-end new materials. In addition, the demand for special materials in cutting-edge fields such as controlled nuclear fusion, robotics, and commercial aerospace is increasing, bringing many investment opportunities to the mid-to-upper stream materials sector.
Q：Opinion on copper and gold?
A：The demand for copper is driven by the construction of new energy sources, grid upgrades, AI, and other fields, but there is a temporary suppression risk caused by the accumulation of copper inventories in the United States. Gold prices have long-term upside potential, but in the short term, they are strongly correlated with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may weaken, but changes in the international order could also bring safe-haven demand for gold.
Q：Is the semiconductor industry rising too much, and is the valuation reasonable?
A：From a global perspective, the semiconductor industry has been growing continuously since the 1940s and 1950s, and has now become a huge market worth 800 billion US dollars, and is still in a dynamic development stage. Due to the low domestic production rate of advanced processes such as 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm in China, and the fact that the social impact of AI is just beginning, from a long-term perspective, the valuation of the semiconductor industry is not considered expensive.
Q：How does Duyu see the investment value of the current AI industry chain?
A：In the past two to three years, global AI development has been rapid, with significant performance in overseas investment amount, determination, and industry chain driving, especially in areas such as computing power, chip manufacturing, and downstream assembly support. Although there is a certain gap in AI investment amount between domestic and overseas, relying on the dividend of engineers and a wide application base, it is expected that China will catch up and achieve rapid development, especially in areas with low localization rates, there is a large growth space. The investment direction tends to be in computing power, and it is expected that there will be faster growth prospects in the next two to three years.
Q：How to balance the investment decision between the global semiconductor cycle beta and the domestic demand alpha for localization?
A：The semiconductor industry has cyclical and growth characteristics, with cyclicality mainly determined by the triple factors of capacity, demand, and inventory. In the investment process, in addition to paying attention to cyclical fluctuations, more emphasis is placed on the technological growth attributes, such as the strong demand for AI driving the semiconductor market. Both domestic and foreign investment strategies are similar, seeking investment opportunities that combine cyclical and growth factors.
Q：How to determine the turning point of the technology industry and the appropriate time to intervene?
A：Using the theory of the product life cycle with technological products, investors typically prefer to seize the explosive stage of product penetration from 5% to 20% for investment. During this period, the growth rate is faster, and it is also the best stage in the stock market. As for the stable phase from 20% to 50%, it is also a good time for growth stock investment.
Q：How to give early warning and risk control in the face of the risk of collapse in the valuation of technology stocks?
A：The collapse of technology stock valuation may be due to various reasons, such as poor company management, technological innovation being replaced, and declining competitiveness. Common warning indicators include deterioration of the competitive landscape, declining profit margins and gross margins. By timely taking profits and cutting losses, adjusting portfolio management strategies, and setting reasonable return expectations, the risks of technology stock investment can be effectively controlled.
Q：What are the long-term investment opportunities and risks in the semiconductor sector?
A：The semiconductor sector is currently in a stage of increasing domestic production rates, with an annual return potential of close to 50%. However, due to high valuations, expected returns may be discounted. It is expected that the domestic production rate will continue to rise, coupled with the stimulus of China's engineering dividend and AI, performance growth can be expected to be maintained at around 20-30%. Despite the risk of valuation cuts, expected returns of 10% to 15% are still possible.
Q：How do we view the investment value of commercial space and military industries?
A：The national defense and military industry used to be mainly planned and domestically oriented, but in recent years, the emerging field of aerospace, especially commercial spaceflight like low-earth orbit economy, has made positive progress and become a hot spot in the capital market. Although its performance may not be as solid as AI, with the development of the industry and policy support, the commercial spaceflight and military industry sectors have certain investment value.
Q：In the field of commercial aerospace, what stage of development is this industry currently in?
A：Currently, this industry is still in the early stages globally, with China and the United States having their own advantages in this direction. Although the industry has broad development prospects, there is still a process required for aspects such as technological maturity and reduction of launch costs, such as breakthroughs in technology and successful cases of reusable rockets.
Q：How does the capital market view early-stage industry investment?
A：In the early stages, the industry is reflected in the capital market with large stock price fluctuations, but in the long term, there are vast investment opportunities. Investors need to discern the competitive strengths, barriers, and growth potential of different segments and companies, and search for excellent enterprises with long-term growth potential for investment amid the fluctuations.
Q：How to differentiate between theme speculation and industrial turning point?
A：Hype and industry inflection points exist not only in the commercial aerospace and military sectors, but also in emerging fields such as smart driving and robotics. Investors should focus on those investment targets that can form industries, generate income, and bring future cash flow.
Q：How to evaluate the value of investment in new technology?
A：When evaluating new technologies, it is important to carefully consider whether they can bring future predictable cash flow. Take autonomous driving as an example, although it is highly focused on by the market, it is necessary to distinguish its impact on sales of different brands, and whether it can bring incremental revenue and profits to the company.
Q：What are the competitive points and advantages of China and the United States in the field of cutting-edge technology?
A：Both China and the United States are leading the world in cutting-edge technology and chip manufacturing processes. Chinese engineers have a strong dividend and a strong ability to catch up, while the United States is leading in original technology research and development, and its technology has been widely applied in various industries, improving social efficiency and forming payment capabilities. Both China and the United States are looking for growth opportunities. China focuses on catching up and breaking through high-end technology, while the United States achieves mass production by transferring orders to Chinese manufacturing, thereby gaining substantial profits.
Q：In addition to the AI field, what other new growth industry opportunities are worth paying attention to in the future?
A：Innovative drugs are a promising direction worth paying attention to. China has advantages in terms of engineering resources, population base, and a large proportion in pharmaceutical research and production exports. With the progress in the development of original targeted drugs, this industry will have even greater room for development.
Q：What are the opinions of the three fund managers on the issue of the high and low positions of industries with good current economic conditions and low positions?
A：Different fund managers have different opinions. Some tend to seek profit opportunities in their familiar areas, focusing on performance growth and valuation matching, and adjusting portfolio allocations in a timely manner. Others are firmly committed to investing in low-carbon, domestic, and intelligent themes, looking for opportunities and future growth points in these areas, without planning to significantly shift towards traditional themes.
