哈里伯顿公司 (HAL.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

The dialogue focuses on Halliburton's strategic outlook for 2026, emphasizing market rebalancing with North America adopting a conservative stance while international markets, particularly Latin America, show growth potential. The company highlights advancements in technology, such as Zeus IQ, and a strategy prioritizing returns over market share. Despite a slight revenue decrease in 2025, Halliburton anticipates stronger second-half margins in 2026, driven by stable international activity and opportunities in Venezuela and the power market, confident in delivering leading returns and leveraging technology differentiation.

会议速览

Halliburton's Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights and Forward-Looking Statements

Announcement of Q4 2025 earnings call for Halliburton, including procedures for asking questions, recording availability, and caution regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. Participants include key executives discussing financial performance and risks.

Halliburton's 2025 Financial Performance and 2026 Market Outlook

Reflects on Halliburton's 2025 financial achievements, including revenue and cash flow generation, and outlines expectations for 2026, focusing on market rebalancing and future opportunities in oilfield services.

Halliburton's International Business: Resilient Growth and Strategic Collaborations

Halliburton's international business shows resilience with strong growth in unconventional development, drilling, and artificial lift. The company's collaborative value proposition and advanced technology, including autonomous geosteering and North America technology for international markets, are key differentiators. Strategic partnerships, particularly with Volta Grid, are expanding opportunities in distributed power systems, positioning Halliburton for future growth.

Venezuela's Oil Potential and Halliburton's Strategic Reentry

Venezuela's economic recovery hinges on oil and gas, with Halliburton poised for reentry. In North America, Halliburton faced revenue decline but anticipates further reduction due to decreased customer activity and fleet management decisions.

Maximizing Value in North America Through Technology and Strategic Equipment Stacking

Attrition accelerates while capital investment falls, making market tightness imminent with demand increase. Technology adoption, especially Zeus IQ, is key for recovery enhancement. North America's recovery leads global trends. Strategic equipment stacking preserves assets for future growth, while Zeus platform and Ics rotary steerable system deliver precision and reliability, essential for longer, more complex wells. Customer adoption of Zeus IQ grows, proving its effectiveness.

Halliburton's Strategic Execution and Confidence in Future Growth in North America Drilling Services

The dialogue highlights Halliburton's commitment to maximizing value through differentiated technology and strategic execution, achieving success despite market challenges. The speaker expresses confidence in the company's future, driven by the growing demand for oilfield services, collaborative solutions, and a shift towards rotary steerable drilling, positioning Halliburton for leading returns and growth opportunities.

Q4 Financial Results, Leadership Update, and Segment Performance Highlights

The dialogue covers the company's Q4 financial results, including net income, revenue, and cash flows, alongside a leadership update with Shannon Slocum's promotion to COO. It details segment performance, noting increases in operating income and revenue in various regions, offset by declines in North America, and highlights strategic repurchases of common stock.

Q4 Financials and Q1 Outlook: Expense Increases, Capital Spending, and Tax Rate Projections

Discussed Q4 financials, projecting Q1 increases in corporate expenses, SAP migration costs, and net interest expense. Anticipated a 21% effective tax rate for Q1 and 2026. Capital expenditures for Q4 were $337 million, $100 million lower than expected, with full-year 2026 guidance at $1.1 billion. Expected declines in sequential revenues and margins in completion and production, and drilling and evaluation divisions.

Halliburton's Strategic Outlook for Growth and Value Maximization in the Evolving Energy Market

Halliburton anticipates a rebalancing year in 2026, followed by sustained growth, leveraging strong international business, collaborative value proposition, and differentiated technologies. The company plans to focus investments on technologies that address customers' greatest opportunities, expecting North America to lead the market recovery. Confidence in delivering leading returns and capitalizing on future growth opportunities is emphasized.

Venezuela Oil Market Reentry: Swift Scaling Potential and Growing Opportunity

Discussion highlights rapid equipment mobilization, existing local infrastructure, and scaling potential in Venezuela's oil market. Optimism expressed for future growth beyond current smaller market size.

Discussion on Revenue, Margins, and SAP Spending for Future Financial Outlook

Speakers discuss expectations for revenue, margins, and SAP spending, highlighting a stronger second half, stable international markets, and progress towards improved margins.

SAP Implementation Update, Market Rebalancing, and Future Demand Outlook

Discussed SAP project's extended timeline and broadened scope, predicting annual savings post-completion. Emphasized market rebalancing due to declining barrels, high decline rates, and growing demand, setting stage for sustained strength in future years.

International Market Performance: Latin America Leads Growth, Middle East Flattish, Asia Pacific Stagnant

Discussed global market trends, highlighting Latin America's growth driven by Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and Guyana. Middle East expected flat to slightly down due to Saudi Arabia's uncertain timeline. Asia Pacific seen as flattish despite gas demand, with overall modest growth anticipated.

Importance of Bolter Grid Business and its Global Expansion Potential

The speaker highlights the significant potential of the Bolter Grid business, particularly in international markets, emphasizing the combination of Halliburton's grid technology with its global footprint. They express confidence in the business's growth, citing initial commitments of Ed megawatts and the increasing demand for power generation. The speaker sees the business as scalable, with opportunities for further expansion as data centers grow, and believes it could become a major part of the company's portfolio over time.

Pricing Stability in North American Stimulation Market Amid Rebalancing and Equipment Shifts

The discussion focuses on the North American stimulation market, highlighting stable pricing despite ongoing market rebalancing and equipment relocation to the Middle East. The speaker reassures that pricing remains firm and is expected to hold steady into Q1, attributing stability to current market dynamics and strategic shifts.

CNP Margin Progress, Multicam Impact, and Equipment Investment Rationality

The discussion revolves around CNP's margin progress for the year, with the first quarter guide aligning with expectations. The conversation delves into the potential uplift from the sale of multicam and its impact on margins throughout the year. Additionally, the dialogue touches on the rational behavior of moving equipment outside the US and the lack of investment in the market, which are seen as positive signs for future improvements in the sector, despite the uncertainty of a specific timeline for recovery.

CNP Margin Analysis: Q4 to Q1 Shifts and Multicam Sale Impact

The dialogue covers the sale completion's positive, albeit non-material, margin impact. It discusses CNP margin progression, highlighting a 300 basis point drop due to completion-to-sales role, international seasonality, and US frac business flatness, with emphasis on completion business strength and non-structural product mix issues.

Outlook for 2026: International and North America Revenues and EBITDA Margin Insights

Discussion revolves around the 2026 financial outlook, highlighting expected revenue distribution between International and North America segments, with a focus on EBITDA margins. The speaker notes a slight margin improvement from H1 to H2, affirming the $4 billion EBITDA estimate as plausible within the projected outcomes.

Innovative Proppant Placement Technology Boosting Oil Recovery

The dialogue highlights advancements in proppant placement technology, emphasizing its unique capability to enhance recovery rates by precisely measuring and controlling sand distribution. This innovation, a significant development since 1947, is pivotal in improving efficiency for oil and gas operators, marking a breakthrough in the industry's technological evolution.

Potential Upside Surprises in Oil Markets: Argentina, Caribbean, West Africa, and Algeria Highlighted

Discusses potential upside surprises in oil markets, emphasizing Argentina's responsiveness to commodity prices, the Caribbean's possibilities, renewed interest in West Africa, and Algeria's potential as a bright spot in the future.

Strategic Approach to Power Market Investments and Electrification Theme

The dialogue discusses the strategic approach towards investments in the power market, emphasizing a step-by-step growth strategy. It highlights alignment with Ultra Grid in the US and international expansion, particularly in the Middle East, with a focus on leveraging knowledge and building teams for sustainable growth in the electrification theme.

Analysis of Q4 Performance and Completion Efficiency Impact on US Production

The dialogue explores the factors contributing to a stronger fourth quarter, emphasizing the role of weather and customer commitment. It also discusses expectations for completion efficiency and its implications for US production, considering frac demand and high-tech services. The conversation hints at the potential for sustained production activity.

Technology-Driven Advancements in Oil and Gas Industry for Enhanced Recovery and Drilling Efficiency

The dialogue emphasizes the pivotal role of technology in enhancing recovery and drilling efficiency within the oil and gas sector. It highlights advancements in frac fleets, automation platforms, and drilling tools, which are critical for operating in a challenging market. The discussion reflects on the necessity of continuous technological innovation to maintain operational excellence and address the complexities of modern drilling requirements.

Comparing Returns on Power Projects vs Organic Investments

Discusses the comparison of prospective returns on international power projects with organic investments, emphasizing the potential for higher returns in North America and the low risk of long-term contracts.

Discussion on Cash Conversion, Working Capital, and Financial Projections

The dialogue revolves around factors influencing cash conversion, with a focus on working capital, anticipated payments from Mexico, and cash tax considerations. The speaker emphasizes the need for more data to provide precise projections, highlighting positive collection trends and the potential for improved cash flow.

Market Tightness Due to High Equipment Performance and Technology Requirements in the Frac Industry

Discussion focuses on the attrition within the frac industry, highlighting the difficulty in adding new fleets due to high performance and technology requirements. Stacked fleets could re-enter the market with acceptable returns, potentially tightening the market further. The industry's shift towards larger, more technologically advanced fleets creates challenges for expansion and underscores the current market tightness.

Middle East Oil Market Stability Amid Regional Variations

The dialogue outlines a stable outlook for the Middle East oil market, noting strength in the UAE and Kuwait, promising growth in Iraq, and cautious optimism regarding Saudi Arabia's rig additions, highlighting regional activity shifts.

Offshore Market Outlook and Venezuela Business Growth

Discussion on the positive outlook for offshore operations with high demand in regions like Norway, Latin America, and West Africa. Also, exploration of potential business growth in Venezuela under resolved commercial and legal terms, emphasizing quick mobilization once payment certainty is achieved.

要点回答

Q：What were the financial highlights of Halliburton's fourth quarter and full year 2025?

A：The financial highlights of Halliburton's fourth quarter and full year 2025 include total company revenue of $22.2 billion, adjusted earnings of $14% and $1 billion down year over year, North American revenue of $9.1 billion, a decrease of 6% year over year, and generation of $2.9 billion of cash flow from operations and $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Additionally, the company repurchased $1 billion of its common stock, reducing its share count to its lowest level in 10 years, with 85% of free cash flow distributed to shareholders.

Q：What is the macro outlook for the oilfield services market in 2026?

A：The macro outlook for the oilfield services market in 2026 suggests a year of rebalancing with OPEC spare capacity returning and non-OPEC production increasing, resulting in an overabundance of supply. Geopolitical disruptions are expected to have minimal impact on commodity prices, which are likely to remain soft. The outlook anticipates moderate softness in North America, stable international activity, and a rebalancing of supply and demand in the medium term.

Q：How is Halliburton positioned in the international oilfield services market?

A：Halliburton is positioned well in the international oilfield services market with a solid global franchise and a strategy that includes deep collaboration, a differentiating technology portfolio, and alignment with market growth trends. The company's collaborative approach has led to outperformance, and its technology, such as drilling and formation evaluation tools, is now a key differentiator worldwide. Halliburton is uniquely positioned to lead and thrive through its collaborative strategy, and it sees consistent growth in markets for unconventional development, drilling, and intervention aligned with its strengths.

Q：What are Halliburton's strategic priorities in the North American market?

A：Halliburton's strategic priorities in the North American market include capitalizing on the accelerating attrition of oilfield services demand due to declining new capital investment and the increasing stress on existing equipment, particularly with the widespread adoption of continuous pumping and Simo Frac. The company is focused on the potential for increased recovery through technology adoption, especially with the introduction of Zeus IQ. Additionally, Halliburton anticipates a swift market tightening in response to a small increase in demand and is optimistic about the region's recovery when commodity prices improve.

Q：What is the strategy for North America in terms of value maximization?

A：The strategy in North America is to maximize value by prioritizing returns over market share and developing technology that addresses customers' most critical opportunities, such as improving recovery and drilling longer, faster, and more precisely.

Q：How does the stacking of equipment contribute to value maximization in North America?

A：Prudent stacking of equipment preserves it for recovery in North America and provides an avenue to feed the growing international unconventionals business with technology. Differentiated platforms like Zeus are driving value through automation and subsurface measurement, improving recovery.

Q：What is the trend in unconventionals and how is Halliburton positioned in this market?

A：The trend in unconventionals is the growth of lateral lengths and complex geometries, such as horseshoe wells, which is evident in every major basin. Halliburton is positioned to capitalize on this trend with technologies like the Zeus platform and the Ics rotary steerable system, which deliver precision and reliability in long laterals.

Q：What impact has I Cruise had on the North America drilling services business?

A：The impact of I Cruise has been dramatic on the North America drilling services business, resulting in its growth despite a decline in rig count. The high performance of I Cruise and Logics, along with the secular trend towards rotary steerable drilling, gives confidence in the continued success of the drilling services business.

Q：What is the importance of Halliburton's differentiated technology?

A：Differentiated technology, such as Halliburton's Zeus platform, is important because it delivers exceptional value for customers and for Halliburton, leading to confidence that Halliburton will deliver leading returns and capitalize on future growth opportunities.

Q：Who has been promoted to Chief Operating Officer and when will he start?

A：Shannon Slocum has been promoted to Chief Operating Officer effective January 1.

Q：What were the financial results for Q4 reported by Halliburton?

A：For Q4, Halliburton reported a net income per diluted share of 70 cents, adjusted net income per diluted share of $1.22, total company revenue of $5.7 billion, adjusted operating income of $829 million, and an adjusted operating margin of 15%. The company's Q4 cash flow from operations was $1.2 billion, and free cash flow was $875 million.

Q：How did the segments perform in Q4 and what were the main drivers of their performance?

A：In Q4, the completion and production division's revenue was $3.3 billion with an operating income of $570 million and a 17% operating income margin. Revenue improvements were driven by higher year-end completion tool sales globally and offset by lower stimulation activity. The drilling and evaluation division's revenue was $2.4 billion with an operating income of $367 million, an increase of 5% sequentially, due to better activity mix from the wireline business in the Eastern hemisphere and year-end software sales.

Q：What were the revenue changes across different geographic regions in Q4?

A：Q4 international revenue increased compared to Q3 2025, with Europe and Africa reporting revenue increases. Middle East and Asia revenue also increased due to well intervention services, stimulation activity, and product sales. Latin America revenue increased due to completion tool sales and software sales. However, North America's Q4 revenue decreased by 7% sequentially due to lower stimulation activity and fluid services.

Q：What are the expectations for Q1 in terms of expenses and capital expenditures?

A：Q1 corporate expenses are expected to increase by about $5 million, with Sap expenses estimated at $45 million compared to $42 million in Q4. Net interest expense is expected to increase by about $5 million. Capital expenditures for Q4 were $337 million, and for the full year 2026, they are expected to be about $1.1 billion, consistent with prior guidance.

Q：What is the anticipated performance of Halliburton's completion and production division and drilling and evaluation division in Q1?

A：In Q1, the completion and production division is expected to have a higher than normal roll-off of year-end completion tool sales and lower international activity, resulting in a sequential revenue decrease of 4 to 6% and margin decline of about 10%. The drilling and evaluation division is expected to see a sequential revenue decline of 2 to 4% and a margin decline of 25 to 75 basis points.

Q：How quickly can Hollebone scale up in Venezuela and what is the potential size of the opportunity?

A：Hollebone can scale up fairly quickly as they can move equipment around the world and still have a footprint in Venezuela. They are assessing what and where to start and expect to return to work in Venezuela sooner rather than later. The market size is smaller now compared to a decade ago when it was a half a billion dollar business consistently, but there is optimism that it can become a much bigger business in the near term.

Q：What is the anticipated margin performance for 2026, especially considering the revenue and cost factors?

A：The second half of 2026 is expected to have stronger margins than the first half, with a stable market internationally. There are positive signs of progress around the world, and larger tenders are anticipated to be more competitive. The exact margin performance is not detailed in the transcript, but the focus is on improving margins as the year progresses.

Q：What is the expected spending trajectory for SAP and when will the project be completed?

A：The SAP project is expected to complete in Q4, which is a little later than earlier guidance. The guidance for Q1 is 45 million, which is also the run rate to think about throughout 2026. The scope of the project has been broadened to include additional processes such as outsourcing, payroll, and redesigning the overall OTC process. After the project is completed, it is expected that there will be annual savings of about 100 million.

Q：Where do you see the biggest growth potential internationally for 2026?

A：The biggest growth potential internationally for 2026 is in Latin America, led by Brazil, deep water, Argentina, and Guyana. Latin America is identified as a bright spot with growth. The Middle East is expected to be flat to possibly down slightly, while Asia Pacific is seen as fairly flat with positive things happening in gas demand.

Q：How important is the bolt grid business to Hollebone, and what are their future plans for it?

A：The bolt grid business is becoming increasingly important for Hollebone as an investment community, and they have announced a significant joint venture in the Lisa. It is suggested that Hollebone is likely a logical consolidator in the space, although specific perspectives on its potential size and whether they will act as a minority stakeholder are not detailed in the transcript.

Q：What are the prospects for Halliburton's international business and grid technology?

A：The prospects for Halliburton's international business and grid technology are positive, with customers showing interest in the combination of grid technology with Halliburton's proven execution, footprint, and capabilities. The business is expected to grow significantly, supported by a solid pipeline and historical growth patterns, where the initial commitment of megawatts is anticipated to expand as data centers expand.

Q：How is the rebalancing of the stimulation market in North America reflected in pricing?

A：The rebalancing of the stimulation market in North America is indicated by fairly stable pricing, with pricing not showing significant volatility as we transition into the first quarter. There's an expectation that the market will improve over time due to equipment being moved outside the U.S., reflecting an overall stabilization at current pricing levels.

Q：What impact is the sale of multicam expected to have on margins?

A：The sale of multicam is expected to be completed in the current quarter and will have a positive impact on margins, although it will not be material overall.

Q：How should one expect the CNP margin progression throughout the year?

A：CNP margin progress throughout the year is expected to follow the provided guidance, with a differential in margins from Q4 to Q1 being a bit different from prior years. A significant portion of the drop in CNP margin is attributed to the roll of completion to sales and typical seasonality in the international business. However, the exact impact and progression are not detailed in the transcript.

Q：What does the outlook for International and North America mean for overall margins?

A：The outlook suggests that margins will progress throughout the year, with H2 being better than H1. Overall, margins are expected to show slight progression, and the reference point of 4 billion EBITDA for 2026 aligns with the range of outcomes Halliburton is considering.

Q：How is Halliburton assisting North American operators with productivity enhancements and what role could emerging technologies play?

A：Halliburton is assisting North American operators with productivity enhancements as part of IQ initiatives, which include the use of emerging technologies like lightweight fracture fluids. These technologies could be 'needle movers' for the industry, potentially revolutionizing how services are delivered and enhancing operational efficiency.

Q：What is the unique feature of Zoo IQ mentioned in the speech?

A：The unique feature of Zoo IQ is the ability to effectively place and control proppant, which has been an unknown in the oil industry since its start in 1947. Recently, direct measurement and control of sand placement have been achieved, thanks to the Zeus setup and its ability to handle pressure and respond to the reservoir's needs.

Q：What markets and regions are expected to show pockets of strength and respond to a higher oil price environment according to the speech?

A：Markets and regions that are expected to show pockets of strength and respond positively to a higher oil price environment include Argentina, where there is high interest from international investors; the Caribbean, which is considered for potential growth; West Africa, where there is renewed interest and better terms for operators; and Algeria, which could become a brighter spot over time.

Q：How does the company plan its investment strategy in the power market and what is their approach towards potential investments?

A：The company plans its investment strategy in the power market by taking steps one at a time. They are aligned with Ultra Grid in the US, have built a team around power for their international business, and focus on contributing to the power sector without getting ahead of their skis. They look for opportunities and expect to grow the business with successful deals.

Q：What factors contributed to a stronger fourth quarter, and what might the implications be for future performance?

A：Factors that contributed to a stronger fourth quarter include weather, a solid group of customers staying busy due to their long-term view of unconventionals and technology. The implication is that the market may look increasingly solid over time, although performance is expected to improve further if commodity prices receive a boost.

Q：What is the impact of completion efficiency on production and how does it affect the use of high-tech services?

A：The impact of completion efficiency on production is that it is at maintenance levels, and the technology that drives better recovery is crucial. The industry is challenged to produce the fantastic resource more effectively, and continuous advancements in technology are required for better results.

Q：How do the growth prospects of the power projects compare to organic investments, and what is the effect on capital deployment?

A：The speech does not provide a direct comparison of the growth prospects of power projects to organic investments. However, the discussion implies that the company is cautious about deploying capital into the power opportunity set and is more focused on the prospects and potential growth within their core operations, which could be expanded with countries like Venezuela.

Q：What factors will influence the impact on returns from new power sources in the future?

A：The impact on returns from new power sources will depend on the type of potential power sources competing in the market and the opportunities in the specific country. The overall view is that these are typically very long-term contracts with low risk and a good view of what needs to be delivered. Returns in North America have been higher than current returns.

Q：What items will impact cash conversion this year, and what is the anticipated impact of collections from Mexico?

A：The impact of working capital, catch-up payments from customers in Mexico, cash taxes, and the spending pattern for the year are items that will affect cash conversion. Collections throughout the year have been great, except for some challenges in collecting from Mexico, which have recently improved. Further details and a better understanding of the ins and outs affecting free cash flow projections will be provided later.

Q：How does the current market situation reflect on the potential for equipment attrition and demand in the industry?

A：The current market situation reflects a tight market due to equipment being repaired and reassembled to maintain operation, indicating that expanding or dismantling fleets would be challenging. This suggests that the market is moving towards bigger frac units that require more equipment, which is creating tightness in the market despite a small increase in demand.

Q：What is the outlook for the Middle East market, and which specific countries are performing well?

A：The outlook for the Middle East market is fairly stable with some markets experiencing shifts from completion to drilling or vice versa. UAE and Kuwait are performing strongly, and Iraq has a good story with increasing activity. Overall, the outlook is stable, with positive developments in Saudi Arabia, particularly regarding rig additions.

Q：Can you detail the offshore market outlook and the regions where it is particularly strong?

A：The offshore market outlook is strong with a focus on integration and Halliburton's value proposition. The company has won a lot of offshore work, which is a significant part of their international business, with activity in Norway, Latin America, and West Africa. Additionally, the completion tool order book is at an all-time high, biased towards deepwater and offshore work.

Q：What are the potential paths for growth in the offshore market in Venezuela, and what is the expected timeline for commercial and legal terms to be resolved?

A：There are potential paths for growth in the offshore market in Venezuela through commercial and legal term resolution, including payment certainty. Halliburton aims to mobilize quickly (within weeks or months) once these issues are resolved, with a continuum of getting back to work. The involvement of International Oil Companies (IOCs) and Halliburton in this process is not specified, but there is a will to solve these issues and Halliburton is in discussions with various customers regarding this matter.

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