花旗集团 (C.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
The earnings call highlights Citi's record revenues, strategic growth in digital and wealth management, market share gains, and a significant reduction in headcount. The company emphasizes its commitment to AI and automation, aiming for improved client experience and cost efficiency. The CFO's farewell remarks mark a leadership transition, with expectations for continued revenue growth, expense discipline, and higher returns in 2026, targeting an efficiency ratio of around 60%. The call concludes with gratitude for mentorship and anticipation for the upcoming Investor Day.
会议速览
Citi reported robust Q4 2025 earnings with strong revenue growth across businesses, achieving record revenues and improving returns. Highlights include significant market share gains, strategic partnerships, and successful divestitures, positioning the firm for continued growth and capital returns to shareholders.
The organization has significantly transformed its operational capabilities, controls, and tech infrastructure through AI integration. With over 50 key processes targeted for modernization, the focus shifts to innovation, efficiency, and enhancing client experience. Global economic growth, supported by healthy corporate clients and strategic investments, positions the firm well for continued success in 2026.
Highlights firm's progress in risk management, innovation, talent acquisition, and capital returns; sets ROTC and operating leverage as key goals; emphasizes ongoing transformation and sustainable growth strategy; recognizes CFO's pivotal role in guiding financial performance.
The firm reported Q4 net income of $3.6 billion with an ROTC of 7.7% on $19.9 billion revenues, showing growth in banking services, USB-B, and wealth, despite a decline in noninterest revenues excluding markets. Full year revenues reached $85.2 billion, adjusted, marking the strongest growth in over a decade with a 4% CAGR since 2021, excluding divestiture impacts and legacy franchises.
The dialogue covers annual and quarterly expense trends, emphasizing investments in technology and productivity. It highlights the firm's credit quality, including card portfolio health and corporate exposure, and discusses balance sheet growth, deposit diversification, and capital adequacy, ending with a robust capital ratio.
The dialogue underscores the company's focus on efficient capital utilization, emphasizing significant shareholder buybacks and robust financial performance in services, marked by revenue growth, increased NII, and NIR, despite a Russian notable item, alongside expanding client engagement and asset management.
Ed revenues declined significantly, driven by fixed income and equities, with notable declines in spread products and cash equities. Expenses rose 14%, primarily due to legal and compensation costs, offset by a $104M credit benefit. Banking revenues increased, fueled by corporate lending and investment banking, despite a drop in ECM revenues. Wealth management saw revenue growth, primarily from Citigold and the private bank, with NII up 12% but expenses increased by 6%. Overall, markets delivered a net income of $783M, banking $685M, and wealth management $338M, reflecting diverse performance across segments.
US personal banking revenues grew, driven by branded cards and retail banking. Despite lower interest earning balances and loan spread in retail services, strong returns were seen. Net income for USB-B reached $845 million, achieving positive operating leverage for the 13th consecutive quarter.
The dialogue outlines expectations for 2026, highlighting NII growth driven by volume and mix improvements, disciplined expense management leading to positive operating leverage, and a focus on capital efficiency and share buybacks. It also addresses the impact of declining legacy franchises and corporate other revenues, emphasizing strategic growth areas like Mexico and wealth services.
The CFO reflects on achievements, emphasizing investments, efficiency, and capital management for sustainable returns. Highlights include progress in markets, balance sheet optimization, and strategic expense discipline. Future focus is on delivering higher returns through continued investment and operational improvements.
Discussion highlights significant progress in financial transformation, nearing target states in compliance, risk, and data areas, with emphasis on AI acceleration. Remaining tasks focus on safety and regulatory validation, impacting efficiency, expense reduction, and capacity for future investments. Validation through internal audits precedes regulator assessment, with timelines uncertain but expected within reasonable periods.
Discusses the current competitive gap in investment banking, emphasizing ongoing investments in technology, innovation, and talent to bridge this gap. Highlights progress in areas like digital capabilities, security services, and market share gains. Addresses fee growth expectations and efficiency ratios, indicating a focus on long-term strategic investments for sustained growth and market leadership.
The dialogue outlines expectations for ongoing fee growth, driven by a rich pipeline and investments in key franchise areas. It highlights momentum in investment revenues, deposit growth, and services, particularly in security and TTS. The markets business is anticipated to remain relatively flat, with strong momentum from 2025, and growth in spread products and financing. Loan and deposit growth are forecasted in the mid-single digits, reflecting positive volume trends.
A detailed discussion on the improved Net Interest Income (NII) outlook for 2026, driven by higher loan and deposit volumes, as well as strategic management of the investment portfolio. The conversation also covers actions taken to reduce asset sensitivity, focusing on portfolio dynamics and security maturation rates, to prepare for anticipated rate declines.
Discussed capital return strategy aiming for a 100 basis point buffer above minimum c.d.t. 1, expecting increased buybacks. Highlighted strong deposit growth driven by enhanced client offerings, global market expansion support, and targeting commercial and middle market clients, ensuring sustainable momentum.
A discussion unfolds on the implications of capping credit card rates at 10%, focusing on its potential to limit access to credit for those in need. The speaker emphasizes alternative affordability measures and warns against the severe unintended consequences of rate caps, referencing past failures of similar policies. Collaboration for effective, long-term solutions that enhance credit access is advocated.
Discusses the potential economic downturn from restricting credit card usage, emphasizing the importance of maintaining accessible credit for consumers and businesses to avoid predatory alternatives and support various sectors.
Discusses gradual expense savings post-consent order, emphasizing revenue growth from new products and clients, efficiency gains from technology investments, and capital optimization for long-term return improvement.
Despite flat market revenues, excitement around investments remains high due to potential growth in NII from financing and securitization activities. The discussion acknowledges the consistent revenue forecast and the positive impact of business model and client coverage on market revenues.
The dialogue emphasizes the importance of balancing expense flexibility with strategic investments to achieve long-term operating efficiency, highlighting the need for continued investment in evolving businesses to close performance gaps with peers.
Speakers discuss advancements in AI efficiency, emphasizing confidence in future growth and returns. They address the NCL outlook, noting macro uncertainty but stable delinquency rates, maintaining the same range despite potential impacts.
Expectations for mid-single-digit deposit growth in services for 2025 are highlighted, with a focus on North America and commercial middle market clients. Despite declining rates, a client relationship approach is emphasized to manage deposits and leverage opportunities for margin-driven returns.
Discussed the completion of selling a 25% stake, emphasizing favorable regulatory developments and the decision to pursue smaller stakes prior to an IPO. Market conditions will guide the timing, aiming to maximize shareholder value. Highlighted a strong performance in prime balances, offset by weaker cash equations due to fewer large alpha trades compared to the previous year.
A discussion on the wealth business's progress, strategy for higher off-leverage, and EBIT margin goals, highlighting efforts in attracting talent, strengthening investment products, and partnerships to drive future growth and profitability.
A discussion on prioritizing profitability levels versus achieving new targets sooner, emphasizing the importance of both for firm growth and value creation.
Expresses gratitude towards a departing CEO for leadership and mentorship, highlights achievements in transparency and value creation, concludes the earnings call with appreciation for attendees.
要点回答
Q:What were the key financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025?
A:For the fourth quarter of 2025, Citi reported net income of $3.6 billion, with an EPS of $1.81 and an ROTC of 7.7%. Total revenues were up 2% year over year. Adjusted for the Russia notable item, revenues were up. For the full year, returns improved to 8.8%, and adjusted net income surpassed $16 billion. With adjusted revenues up script, the firm delivered positive operating leverage in every one of its script businesses as well as the firm overall.
Q:What impact has Citi's transformation and technology investments had on the company?
A:Citi's transformation and technology investments have led to robust market share gains, with the Markets segment delivering record revenues. The company has integrated Citibank's services with 24/7 US dollar tiering, expanded City Payments Express to 22 markets, and launched single event processing for near real-time asset servicing. These investments have resulted in a stronger capital position, robust revenue growth, improved risk controls, and a focus on client experience, while maintaining discipline in expenses.
Q:What are the important financial milestones and future directions for Citi?
A:Citi repurchased over $13 billion in common shares, including $4.5 billion in the fourth quarter, as part of a $20 billion plan. The company increased its dividend, resulting in a total capital return of over $17.5 billion. Citi entered the year with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.2%, ample capital to support growth, and plans to continue returning capital to shareholders. The firm is nearing the end of its international divestures, having signed an agreement to sell its consumer business in Poland and is finalizing the sale of its remaining operations in Russia. The company closed the sale of a 25% stake of Bamba mix in just three months. At the upcoming Investor Day, Citi plans to outline how it will take its strategy forward and improve returns sustainably.
Q:What were the highlights of Citi's transformation progress?
A:Citi made significant progress in its transformation, with many of its programs near target completion. The company shifted its focus to using AI tools and automation to further innovate and re-engineer processes. Over 50 of the firm's largest and most complex processes have started this transition, ranging from Know Your Customer (KYC) to loan underwriting. The use of AI has transformed operational capabilities, controls, and technology infrastructure, with adoption of proprietary tools increasing to over 70%.
Q:What are the economic conditions and Citi's strategy outlook for 2026?
A:The global economy has shown resilience, with the Federal Reserve and other central banks becoming more accommodative, and despite a softening labor market in the US, capital investment remains strong, especially in technology. Europe has taken steps to accelerate anemic growth, and the firm is hopeful that Germany can create a meaningful stimulus. The strategy has proven successful in different environments, and the firm is well-positioned to continue supporting corporate clients through its balance sheet and expertise. Citi enters 2026 with visible momentum across the firm and is focused on completing its transformation to deliver a 10% to 11% ROTC and positive operating leverage.
Q:What is the nature of the corporate exposure and how have corporate nonaccrual loans and credit losses performed?
A:The corporate exposure is primarily investment grade. Corporate nonaccrual loans and corporate credit losses remain low, indicating a high-quality portfolio.
Q:What are the company's expectations regarding capital management and the buyback program?
A:The company will continue to provide the businesses with the capital needed to pursue accretive returns while optimizing standardized and advanced RWA usage. The company will continue the $20 billion buyback program.
Q:What are the reported revenues and NII growth in the fourth quarter and full year?
A:Reported revenues were up in the fourth quarter and full year, driven by growth across TTS and security services. NII (Net Interest Income) increased by 18% primarily due to higher average deposit balances and deposit spreads. NRO (Net Revenue) decreased by 11% adjusted for a Russian notable item.
Q:How is the company's activity and engagement with corporate and commercial clients?
A:There has been strong activity and engagement with corporate and commercial clients, with momentum across underlying fee drivers. Gross border transaction value increased by 14%, and assets under custody and administration increased by 24%.
Q:What is the Services segment's net income and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)?
A:The Services segment reported net income of $2.2 billion with an ROTCE of 36.1% for the quarter and an undisclosed full-year figure.
Q:What is the change in markets revenues and expenses, and how is the cost of credit?
A:Markets revenues were down compared to the best fourth quarter in a decade, with fixed income revenues flat and equations revenues down. Expenses increased primarily due to higher legal expenses, compensation, and benefits. Cost of credit was a net benefit of $104 million, mainly consisting of a net ACL (Allowance for Credit Losses) release.
Q:What are the revenues, expenses, and net income figures for the Banking segment?
A:Banks revenues were up driven by growth in corporate lending and investment banking. Investment banking fees increased. Expenses were up as well. Cost of credit was $176 million, with positive operating leverage for the eighth consecutive quarter and net income of $685 million with an ROTC of 13.2% for the quarter and 11.3% for the full year.
Q:What is the performance of the Wealth segment in terms of revenues, expenses, and net income?
A:Wealth segment revenues were up driven by growth in Citigold and the private bank, partially offset by a decline in wealth at work NII. NII increased 12% due to higher deposit spread and average balances. Expenses increased due to investments in technology and volume-related expenses. Net income was $338 million with an ROTC of 21% for the quarter and 10.9% for the full year.
Q:How is the performance of US Personal Banking reflected in revenues, expenses, and net income?
A:US Personal Banking revenues were up driven by branded cards and retail banking. Expenses increased due to higher transactional and marketing expenses. Cost of credit was $1.75 billion, and net credit losses in card portfolios were at or below the low end of the guided ranges. US Banking generated positive operating leverage for the 13th consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $845 million with an ROTC of 14.3% for the quarter and 13 points for the full year.
Q:What are the results of All Other on a managed basis, including revenues, expenses, and cost of credit?
A:Revenues declined across legacy franchises and corporate other primarily due to the impact of the Russian notable item and the continued reduction of revenue from the exit and wind down of the market. Expenses were down with a decline in legacy franchises, partially offset by growth in corporate other. Cost of credit was $449 million, primarily consisting of net credit losses in Mexico.
Q:What is the company's forecast for net interest income excluding markets (NIM) and efficiency ratio for 2026?
A:The company expects NIM to be up between 5 and 6% in 2026, driven by volume growth, primarily higher loan volumes in cards and wealth, and deposit volumes in services and wealth. The continued benefit from the investment portfolio and expected interest rate environment will also contribute. The forecasted efficiency ratio for 2026 is around 60%.
Q:What are the main factors contributing to the higher ROCE for 2025?
A:The factors contributing to the higher Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) for 2025 include the optimization of Return on腕豪 (RWA) in prior years, deploying it where it yields the highest return, lower levels of capital set for the year, and the reallocation of more General Subsidiary (G sub) capacity towards the business and lending activity, especially in higher returning areas of the franchise.
Q:What was the change in the efficiency ratio and what does it signify?
A:The efficiency ratio changed from below 60% to a target around 60%. This slight increase is not a major concern and signifies the ongoing management focus on balancing expenses and efficiency to support investment in the business and maintaining safety and soundness for future growth.
Q:What is the significance of the 10% to 11% return focus in 2026?
A:The significance of the 10% to 11% return focus in 2026 is to ensure that there is top line momentum, good expense discipline, which includes creating capacity through greater productivity, and investing in the business. This is crucial for delivering greater returns in subsequent years, starting with 2027, by continuing to invest in the franchise and taking advantage of opportunities beyond 2026.
Q:How is the company progressing with its transformation and what remains?
A:The company is progressing well with its transformation, with over 80% of the progress at or near the target state. The remaining progress relates mainly to safety and soundness, focusing on compliance, risk controls, and data, which are critical areas as defined by the city. The company is confident in its ability to complete the remaining work and sees regulators' positive feedback on safety and soundness as a validation of progress.
Q:How long does it take to validate internal work with the regulators?
A:The timeline for regulators to validate the internal work is up to them, and it is not specified in the transcript. The process involves completing the work, validating it, and then handing it over to the regulators for assessment.
Q:What is the current status of the company's work in relation to regulators?
A:The company still has some work to do, but is making accelerated progress. Completion of the work, validation, and handover to the regulators are required steps, and the company is confident in its ability to get the work done and meet regulatory expectations.
Q:What is the company's position in terms of franchise investments and how does it view the gap with peers?
A:The company has been investing in technology, transformation, innovations, and service improvements over the past five years. Despite being behind the curve in terms of franchise investments compared to best-in-class peers, the company believes it is improving its competitive position and closing the gap through investments in digital, security services, and other areas which have resulted in strong growth and market share gains.
Q:What are the expectations for fee growth and NII in 2026?
A:The company expects continued fee growth and believes that a constructive economic environment will support positive fee growth in 2026. There is a rich pipeline indicating continued share gains, and investments in key parts of the franchise are expected to contribute positively to fees. On the deposit and investment revenue side, growth in client assets is expected to contribute to fees. In markets, revenue is expected to be flat year over year, influenced by loan and deposit volume growth, with some impact from asset sensitivity and mix. NII is expected to grow in line with loans and deposits, supported by loan volume growth and modest deposit growth.
Q:What factors are driving the expectation for NII momentum?
A:The factors driving the expectation for NII momentum include the momentum seen in cards and loans continuing into the upcoming year, the consistent management of the investment portfolio, and the redeployment of securities maturing at lower rates into loans and cash.
Q:What actions have been taken to reduce sensitivity to interest rate changes?
A:To reduce sensitivity to interest rate changes, the company has been managing the portfolio dynamically, selling certain securities, and exiting others when appropriate. As of the third quarter, actions have been taken to reduce US dollar interest rate sensitivity by $300 million for a 100 basis point drop.
Q:What is the current level of capital return and the target buffer?
A:The company is currently 160 basis points above its minimum capital target and is still aiming for a 100 basis point management buffer. It plans to work towards an effective capital density (ED) over the next few quarters without providing guidance on buybacks.
Q:What factors are contributing to strong deposit growth and service revenue?
A:Factors contributing to strong deposit growth and service revenue include focusing on existing multinational clients, expanding into new markets with those clients, and leveraging AI to grow the commercial and middle market client base.
Q:What is the company's position on the new credit card interest rate cap?
A:The company recognizes the focus on affordability and supports solutions that foster the expansion of credit access. They provide lower-cost products and have eliminated overdraft fees, and are committed to engaging in how to expand credit rather than restrict it.
Q:What are the potential impacts of a credit card rate cap?
A:The potential impacts of a credit card rate cap include a drastic reduction in credit card spending, loss of access to credit cards for many, forced reliance on predatory alternatives, broader effects on the retail, travel, and hospitality sectors, and negative impacts on GDP.
Q:What is the expectation for expense savings and investment capacity post-consent order lifting?
A:Post-consent order lifting, the expectation is for gradual expense savings as the company becomes more efficient. As different bodies of work are completed, expenses related to those are brought down and redeployed to the bottom line and investments for growth.
Q:What is the anticipated trajectory for long-term returns?
A:The anticipated long-term return trajectory includes drivers such as revenue growth, expense efficiencies, and RWA and capital efficiency. The company has been steadily growing revenues and sees continued growth in services, product innovations, and financing opportunities.
Q:What is the outlook for NII and market revenues?
A:The outlook for NII is for it to be up within flat total revenues, primarily due to higher revenues from financing and securitizations. Market revenues are expected to be flat, consistent with consensus expectations.
Q:What are the expectations for operating efficiency and investment in the franchise?
A:The expectations are to maintain a focus on delivering long-term operating efficiency returns of 10% to 11%, and there is an emphasis on the need to continue investing in the franchise to ensure its evolution and maintenance of efficiency.
Q:What confidence does the speaker express regarding AI capabilities and future returns?
A:The speaker expresses confidence in the firm's ability to leverage AI, having identified over 50 processes for new sources of efficiency. There is a belief in the potential to drive up returns and grow the franchise, reflected in the speaker's excitement and confidence.
Q:What is the outlook for card losses and delinquency roll rates?
A:The outlook for card losses is within the range provided, which includes some cover for macro uncertainty. Delinquency roll rates are not showing anything unexpected across portfolios, even when analyzing by different FICO scores and income brackets. There is an expectation that nothing significant is on the horizon that would impact the delinquency situation negatively.
Q:Are services and security deposits expected to grow, and what is the anticipated growth for total deposits?
A:Yes, services and security deposits are expected to grow with a forecast of mid single-digit growth for firm-wide total deposits next year. The focus is on managing these services with a client relationship mindset, including competitive pricing and good loan growth, to ensure a lower cost of funding and opportunities to deploy at good margins.
Q:What is the status of the divestiture process in Mexico and the role of market conditions?
A:The divestiture process in Mexico is progressing with the sale of a 25% stake to Fernando Chico Pardo and the Mexican government as an anchor investor. The focus is on selling additional smaller stakes prior to an IPO, with timing and structure guided by market conditions to maximize shareholder value.
Q:What was the weakness in the cash equations business and how does it compare to a year ago?
A:The weakness in the cash equations business was identified in the comparison to a year ago, which had a particularly strong fourth quarter. After excluding a few large trades, the comparison looks more in line with expectations.
Q:What is the vision for off-leverage growth, EBIT margin, and the timeline to achieve it?
A:The vision includes growing off-leverage profitability and maintaining or improving EBIT margins. The goal is to continue driving higher off-leverage EBIT margins and to reach a long-term vision of a 25% to 30% EBIT margin, with the medium-term goal being about 15%. The timeline to achieve this will be outlined by the management team.
Q:What is the strategy for the wealth business and its focus on investment advisors and client assets?
A:The strategy for the wealth business involves becoming the lead investment advisor for clients. This includes attracting and retaining industry-leading talent, enhancing the CIO research product, reworking key components of the investment platform, and forming partnerships with industry leaders to improve the client experience and drive growth in investment fee revenues.
Q:What is the management team's approach to discussing new targets and priorities?
A:The management team is focused on both the level of profitability and the timing to achieve the targets. While there is a sense of urgency and a desire to show progress, the firm is also mindful of the need to grow into the targets without committing to any specific timeframe that might be premature.

Citigroup, Inc.
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