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奇富科技 (03660.HK,QFIN.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
The company is facing strengthened regulation and market changes in the consumer finance industry, adopting a light capital strategy, optimizing business structure, and strengthening risk control, expecting a non-GAAP net profit of 1 to 1.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Strengthening risk management, advancing AI technology, deepening cooperation with financial institutions, and stabilizing financial performance. Faced with regulation, adjusting capital structure, optimizing user services, ensuring sustainable growth. Emphasizing shareholder returns, executing stock buybacks, increasing dividends, improving capital allocation efficiency, and demonstrating a commitment to long-term value creation.
会议速览
Cuffin Holdings Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
This meeting focused on the financial report of Cuffin Holdings' third quarter, during which adjustments to non-GAAP financial indicators were discussed, the company's safe harbor statement was emphasized, and it was announced that the CEO will use AI-generated voice for English speeches. Additionally, guidance on how to ask questions was provided, confirmation was given that the meeting will be recorded live, and it was mentioned that all financial data will be presented in Chinese Renminbi.
Facing Challenges and Opportunities: Qfin's Third Quarter Financial Report and Risk Management Strategy
In the economic downturn, Qfin, as a leading credit technology platform in China, has maintained stable financial performance through optimizing risk strategies, deepening cooperation with financial institutions, and enhancing AI capabilities. In the third quarter, the platform served 167 financial institutions, providing digital credit services to 62 million users, achieving a non-GAAP net profit of 1.51 billion yuan. Facing rising industry risks, Qfin effectively controlled risks by adjusting credit standards, optimizing customer structure, and improving risk models, demonstrating resilience and foresight in response to industry adjustments.
Stable financing and business optimization: Company strengthens AI capabilities and international expansion strategy.
The company ensures stable financing and optimizes ABS issuance by implementing a whitelist system, reducing financing costs. At the same time, the company strengthens its business strategy driven by AI, deepens cooperation with financial institutions, and improves the quality of credit services. Facing industry adjustments, the company emphasizes risk management and user quality, expecting asset quality to stabilize. In the future, the company will advance AI capability building, expand international markets, and achieve sustainable development and maximize shareholder value.
Third-quarter financial report and future outlook: Addressing challenges and moving forward steadily.
In the third quarter, the company's total revenue was 5.21 billion, an increase of 18% year-on-year, mainly driven by the growth in the balance of capital-intensive loans. Despite facing economic uncertainty and regulatory pressure, the company has maintained stable operations through adjusting its business portfolio and strengthening risk control. The 90-day delinquency rate was 2.09%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. Non-GAAP net profit was 1.51 billion, a decrease of 18.6% from the previous period. The company expects non-GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter to be between 1-1.2 billion, and has initiated a $45 million stock buyback plan.
The impact of new regulations on the industry's profit model and competitive landscape.
Discussed the impact of the new housing regulations on business profitability models, including short-term market adjustments and increased risks, as well as the sustainability improvements in the long-term competitive environment. Management expects profit margins to gradually stabilize after 2026, and believes that the new regulations will promote industry consolidation, reduce competition, and help expand market share.
The company responds to shareholder return strategy and asset quality trends.
The management responded to questions about shareholder returns, stating that they will resume the remaining stock repurchase plan and are committed to increasing shareholder returns by gradually increasing dividends per share, even in a fluctuating income environment. Regarding asset quality, the management pointed out that although the trend has worsened since the third quarter, it is expected that asset quality will peak at some point in the future under stable regulatory conditions and begin to improve. Factors affecting this time point include changes in market conditions and regulatory policies.
Trend of industry asset quality and risk prevention and control measures.
The conversation discussed the monthly trends of industry asset quality since the implementation of the new regulations, pointing out that although the tightening of fund supply and the increasing industry risks have led to an overall increase in risk, the early risk performance of new assets added in November has shown signs of stabilization and improvement, and the risk performance of existing assets is relatively stable.
Optimization strategies should be used to address industry challenges, enhance risk control, and improve asset quality.
To reduce risks, policies focus on increasing the proportion of high-quality users, optimizing asset package structure, increasing investment in low-risk user resources, using large-scale model algorithms to optimize pricing, and improving collection efficiency. Facing changes in the industry environment, although the early risk indicators for new loans have not reached the desired level, the sufficient profit safety cushion and past experience give the company confidence to deal with short-term challenges, and it is expected that it will take 2-3 quarters to improve the asset package structure.
Evaluation of the impact of new regulations on loan growth and profitability for consumer finance companies.
Discussed the impact of the regulatory authorities' proposed new regulations setting a cap of 20% on the annualized interest rate for consumer finance companies' loans, analyzed the potential effects of slowing loan growth, rising credit costs, and profit pressures, as well as the countermeasures taken by companies, including optimizing capital structure, enhancing the ability to serve high-quality users, etc., in order to maintain risk balance and long-term profitability.
Prospects for adjusting the balance between technology solutions and heavy and light asset businesses
The conversation discussed the reasons for the rapid growth of technology solutions business, including deepening cooperation with financial institutions and the application of AI technology, as well as outlook for the future business structure. At the same time, in response to the proportion of light and heavy asset businesses, it is expected that the proportion of light asset businesses will increase in the short term to reduce risk, and in the long term, it will need to be flexibly adjusted according to market conditions to maintain a balance ratio of about 50%.
要点回答
Q:What are the challenges faced by China's economy and consumer finance sector?
A:China's economy and consumer finance sector have faced persistent headwinds, with the outstanding balance of short-term consumer loans declining for three consecutive quarters on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.
Q:What changes are occurring in the consumer finance industry in China?
A:The consumer finance industry in China is undergoing regulatory-driven adjustments to improve consumer financial inclusion. These changes are viewed as strengthening the sector's long-term prospects and sustainability, and creating a healthier competitive landscape.
Q:How is the leading credit tech platform in China responding to these challenges?
A:The leading credit tech platform in China is prioritizing risk management, advancing AI capabilities, and deepening collaboration with financial institutions to serve inclusive finance needs and maintain its leadership position.
Q:What were the significant achievements of the credit tech platform in the third quarter?
A:By the end of the quarter, the AI-powered credit decision engine and asset distribution platform served 167 financial institutions, reaching over 62 million credit line users on a cumulative basis. The platform also maintained a healthy balance between risk and growth, with total loan facility mediation and origination volume at RMB 83 billion.
Q:How did the company manage its financial performance in the face of macro headwinds?
A:Despite macro headwinds, the company delivered steady financial results, with a non-GAAP net income of RMB 1.51 billion and non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis of RMB 11.36, reflecting solid profitability and operating resilience.
Q:What measures did the company take to address the tightening funding liquidity and delinquency risk?
A:To address the tightening funding liquidity and delinquency risk, the company dynamically fine-tuned risk strategies, tightened credit standards, optimized the customer mix by increasing the proportion of high-quality borrowers, refined risk models, and improved collection efficiency.
Q:What was the impact of the new regulations and industry self-discipline initiatives on risk indicators?
A:The new regulations and industry self-discipline initiatives led to a decline in the company's FPD7, a leading risk indicator for new loans, since September compared to August. However, risk indicators are expected to remain volatile in the near term due to current levels being above historical averages.
Q:How did the company manage its funding and capital efficiency?
A:The company was whitelisted by all active financial institution partners, maintained leading pricing power, secured ample funding supply at stable costs, and kept the average funding cost steady. ABS issuance grew significantly, optimizing funding structure.
Q:What progress was made in user acquisition and the embedded finance network?
A:User acquisition efforts diversified channels and improved efficiency, resulting in a nine percent growth in new credit line users to 1.95 million and a 10 percent sequential increase in new borrowers to 1.35 million. The embedded finance network expanded with seven new strategic partners, increasing the number of new credit line users from these channels by 13 percent sequentially.
Q:What is the company's long-term strategic priority and how is it planning to support its high-quality customers?
A:The company's long-term strategic priority focuses on high-quality customers. It plans to use AI-driven data models to gain insights into user needs and behaviors, refine products and services, and deliver a superior user experience while improving unit economics and user lifetime value.
Q:What developments were made in the technology solutions business?
A:The technology solutions business continued to advance the AI+banking strategy, with exponential growth in loan volume supported by this business. The company deepened collaboration with banks, expanding to a broader range of internet scenarios and providing end-to-end technology support in customer acquisition and risk management.
Q:What percentage of the activated user base is engaging with the AI agency, and what are the plans for future capabilities and user engagement?
A:The engagement rate among the activated user base has reached around fifty percent, and the plans for the future include strengthening capabilities in multi model recognition, voice data collection, lead management, feedback loops, expanding pilot programs, and further improving user engagement.
Q:How is the company responding to new regulatory measures and what is the expected impact on loan volume and profitability?
A:The company has worked closely with financial institution partners to optimize business structure and product experience, resulting in temporary impacts on loan volume and profitability. However, prioritizing value for users is believed to eventually strengthen trust and promote more sustainable and resilient growth.
Q:What is the new focus of the company in terms of risk management and business priorities?
A:The company is prioritizing risk management over near-term growth, focusing on improving user quality and collection efficiency in response to the current industry-wide adjustment phase.
Q:What is the current status of asset quality and how has the company performed historically during industry adjustments?
A:Since mid-October, there have been encouraging early signs of stabilization in asset quality. The company has a proven track record of emerging stronger from past challenges, including multiple industry-wide adjustments.
Q:What is the company's international strategy and confidence in the expansion?
A:The company is actively exploring opportunities across multiple overseas markets and is confident in the quality of its fin tech capabilities, viewing international expansion as a challenging yet strategically sound path.
Q:What is the company's commitment to shareholder returns and capital allocation?
A:The company is committed to delivering value to shareholders through compelling shareholder returns and will continue to pursue efficient capital allocation.
Q:What are the challenges faced in the consumer finance industry and the expected revenue for the third quarter?
A:The consumer finance industry is facing new regulatory scrutiny and significant pressure due to headwinds, leading to total net revenue of $5.21 billion in the third quarter, compared to $5.22 billion in the second quarter and $4.37 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
Q:What are the changes in revenue from different loan segments and overall funding costs?
A:Revenue from credit-driven, capital-heavy services was $3.87 billion in the third quarter, up from $3.57 billion in the second quarter and $2.9 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. Overall funding costs remained stable despite some liquidity shortages later in the quarter.
Q:What is the sequential and year-over-year change in platform service capital light revenue?
A:Revenue from platform service capital light was $1.34 billion in the third quarter, down from $1.65 billion in the second quarter and $1.47 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, primarily due to lower capital light facilitation and ICE volume.
Q:What is the current average IRR of the loans originated and facilitated by the company?
A:The current average IRR of the loans originated and facilitated is 20.9%, compared to 21.4% in the second quarter.
Q:What are the company's plans for user acquisition in the coming months?
A:The company plans to adjust the pace of new user acquisition in the coming months based on volatile market conditions and will optimize user acquisition channels to improve user engagement and retention.
Q:What are the current delinquency rates and the approach to risk management?
A:The delinquency rate was 2.09% in the third quarter, compared to 1.97% in the second quarter. The company took measures to tighten risk standards in September and October, and while it's too early to reverse the trend, there is a marginal improvement in new loans. The company is taking a conservative approach to book provisions against potential credit loss.
Q:How is the non-GAAP net profit and the effective tax rate for the third quarter?
A:The non-GAAP net profit for the third quarter was $1.51 billion, compared to $1.85 billion in the second quarter. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 29%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15%, mainly due to withholding tax provisions related to cash distribution.
Q:What is the current leverage ratio and the company's expectations for it?
A:The leverage ratio, defined as risk parent loan balance divided by shareholders' equity, was 3.0 times in the third quarter, near the low end of historical range. The company expects the leverage ratio to fluctuate around this level in the near term.
Q:What is the company's cash flow and financial position, and what actions have been taken regarding the share repurchase program?
A:The company generated approximately $2.5 billion in cash from operations in the third quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments at $14.35 billion. The company has started a share repurchase program and had purchased approximately 7.3 million shares for a total amount of approximately $281 million as of November 18th. The company intends to resume the repurchase program after the window opened after this earnings call.
Q:What is the business outlook for the next couple of quarters and what is the expected non GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of 2025?
A:The business outlook for the next couple of quarters is cautious, with a focus on risk control of operations. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company expects to generate non GAAP net income between $1 billion and $1.2 billion. This outlook is subject to material changes.
Q:What are the expected changes to the business model and take rate after the new loan facilitation rules come into effect in October, and what is the expectation for loan economics in the long run?
A:Upon the new loan facilitation rules coming into effect in October, there will be a change to the business model and population model of loans. The management expects the competitive environment to become more sustainable and healthier in the long run, which is beneficial for the industry. In the near term, the rules will impact market size, risk levels, and profitability. The take rate is expected to decline due to pricing and risk impact, while the industry is anticipated to remain volatile. The exact take rate floor for 2026 and beyond is still being determined. The management is focusing on optimizing risk strategies, improving collection efficiency, further optimizing costs in user acquisition and operations, and exploring new service offerings to improve user conversion and retention. These efforts are expected to help improve the take rate over time.
Q:How is the industry expected to adjust to the new rules, and what is the projected impact on market size, risk levels, and profitability?What actions is the company taking to offset the impact of the new rules on loan volume and profitability?
A:The industry is expected to take some time to adjust to the new rules, with the rules impacting market size, risk levels, and profitability in the near term. The liquidity pressure in the market is pushing the overall risk higher for the broader consumer financial space, leading to an increase in net provisions. The industry is expected to remain volatile, and the take rate floor in the new loan for 2026 and beyond is still being evaluated. The management is focusing on several key areas to enhance risk performance and overall efficiency.To offset the impact of the new rules on loan volume and profitability, the company is focusing on optimizing risk strategies and improving collection efficiency to enhance risk performance. Furthermore, they are looking to optimize costs in user acquisition and operations to improve overall efficiency and exploring new service offerings to improve user conversion and retention.
Q:How is the competitive landscape expected to change post the new loan facilitation rules, and what are the expected benefits for the company?
A:Post the new loan facilitation rules, the competitive landscape is expected to change significantly. There has been a major shakeout in the high pricing segment, leading to a decrease in new loan volumes and some smaller platforms facing difficulties in survival. The remaining platforms are shrinking their loan books. This is resulting in less competition for traffic in the current quarter. Looking ahead, many platforms may try to move to the 18 to 24 percent range, but due to funding, risk management, and operational efficiency disadvantages, it will be difficult for them to be profitable. Consequently, in the long term, some players are expected to leave the market. This market consolidation is expected to benefit the company by improving the effectiveness of marketing efforts, allowing for the acquisition of higher value users at lower costs, and improving credit risk and conversion rates, which will enhance users' lifetime value.
Q:What is the current status of the company's share buyback plan and dividend strategy?
A:As of the latest earnings call, the company has about $170 million left from the $450 million share buyback plan announced in the previous year. A temporary pause was taken during the third quarter due to incoming regulatory updates and associated risks. The company plans to resume the execution of the program to fulfill their commitment for the rest of the year. Regarding the dividend, the goal is to gradually increase the dividend per share through each semiannual dividend payout.
Q:What is the pricing guidance for consumer finance companies and how does it relate to the new rules on the situation sector?
A:Consumer finance companies are required to keep their average pricing below twenty percent, a rule that is thought to be similar to new regulations on the low-for-situation sector. The aim of this pricing regulation is to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and make credit more accessible in the short term, which is expected to impact market size, risk levels, and profitability. Over time, it is believed to foster healthier competition and improve asset quality.
Q:How does the consumer finance company's funding structure impact the speaker's company?
A:The speaker's company has a small direct exposure to consumer finance companies and the direct impact is limited as most funding comes from banks. Consumer finance companies' adjustments in pricing may lead to short-term pressure and liquidity issues, potentially causing risk volatility. If necessary, the speaker's company can shift its funding structure, as most of its funding comes from banks.
Q:What is the projected impact of consumer finance companies' pricing adjustments on the speaker's company?
A:The speaker anticipates that as consumer finance companies adjust their pricing, there may be further pressure on liquidity leading to risk volatility in the short term. The company plans to continue to adjust its risk mitigants to manage these risks, with an average APR in Q3 at 20.9%.
Q:What is the company's strategy for serving higher quality users and managing risk?
A:The company intends to focus on serving higher quality users with a broader user base and a better mix, which should allow for optimized pricing and a well-balanced risk profile. The company aims to improve overall profitability and is more focused on the long-term value of users than short-term profitability.
Q:What was the reason for the significant growth in tech solution business in the third quarter, and how does the company anticipate future growth?
A:The significant growth in the tech solution business in the third quarter was driven by two main factors: an increase in loan volume with scientific partners and the expansion of collaboration with financial institutions to include both their ecosystems and a broader set of online scenarios. The company anticipates future growth by continuing to partner with financial institutions and develop AI agents that enhance customer acquisition and risk management across various channels.
Q:How is the super credit AI agent expected to impact the company's offerings and what is the market feedback?
A:The super credit AI agent is expected to streamline processes, accelerate approvals, and enhance risk assessment by identifying risks in seconds and generating precise user profiles within minutes. Pilots with bank partners have shown a positive impact in key areas like customer acquisition and approvals, and the company is seeing interest from other financial institutions. Market feedback has been very positive, and the potential upside for the super credit AI agent is considered very substantial.
Q:What is the company's approach to balancing capital light and capital heavy business in the short term?
A:In the short term, the company may need to make flexible adjustments to the mix between capital light and capital heavy business based on volatile market conditions. The mix may lean more towards capital light in a higher-risk environment, but the approach could vary depending on different factors such as the cap on price and the capability to conduct IC side of the business. In the fourth quarter, there may be a slight increase in capital light business as the company aims to reduce risk exposure. In the longer term, the company plans to make timely adjustments based on various conditions, funding sources, and risk levels, which may result in a fluctuating mix around the fifty-fifty line.
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