Nebius Group (NBIS.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Nevis Group anticipates a significant ARR growth by 2026, driven by capacity expansion, new product launches, and long-term contracts with major clients. The company is enhancing its AI cloud business, improving enterprise readiness, and exploring financing options for aggressive growth. Key strategies include securing power contracts, expanding greenfield sites, and prioritizing margins in partnerships and acquisitions. Despite supply constraints, Nevis Group is on track to meet demand and capitalize on market opportunities.
会议速览
Nevius Group Accelerates Capacity Growth and Secures Major AI Cloud DealsNevius Group reports strong demand, accelerates capacity growth to 2.5GW by 2026, secures major deals with Meta and Microsoft, and focuses on AI cloud business and product development for a projected $7-9B revenue by end of 2026.
Q3 Financials, Growth Strategies, and 2025 Guidance for an AI Infrastructure CompanyDiscussed Q3 financial performance with a 355% year-over-year and 39% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, core infrastructure business expansion, and guidance for 2025 with revenue forecasted between $500M to $550M. Highlighted aggressive growth plans supported by corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. Outlined strategic investments in critical infrastructure and long-term profitability, with a focus on capturing future growth opportunities.
Meta Deal Announcement & 2026 ARR Outlook ClarificationThe dialogue covers the announcement of a $3 billion Meta deal, emphasizing capacity constraints and the company's focus on core AI business. It also clarifies the 2026 ARR target of $79 billion, incorporating existing core business, recent large deals, and future contract signings.
Expanding Capacity to Meet Growing AI Demand: Path to 2.5 GW by 2026The dialogue outlines the company's strategy to expand data center capacity, achieving 2.5 GW of contracted power by 2026, driven by increasing demand from AI startups, enterprises, and strategic clients. New data centers in multiple regions are being developed, with existing centers scaling up, ensuring a robust pipeline to meet future demand.
Revenue Impact of Microsoft and Meta Deals, and Q4 Demand OutlookMicrosoft deal impacts revenue from 2026, Meta deal full run rate in 2026, Q4 demand outlook discussed.
Capacity Expansion and Revenue Growth in the Data Center IndustryDiscusses the impact of capacity constraints on revenue and ARR, outlines strategies for managing demand and CapEx planning, and forecasts future growth through connected capacity expansion.
Expanding Power Contracts and Customer Service StrategiesDiscussed increasing power contracts from 1 GW to 2.5 GW, emphasizing flexible deployment based on demand and prioritizing partnerships with diverse customers to avoid capacity constraints and support future growth.
Exploring Financing Options and Maximizing Shareholder Value in Capital Intensive BusinessThe dialogue discusses various financing strategies, including asset-backed financing, corporate debt, and equity, aiming to maximize shareholder value. It also touches on the implementation of an ATM equity program for future capital access and updates on the new UK facility's operations.
UK Data Center Launches Amid High Demand and AI GrowthA new data center in the UK, announced in June, is nearly fully sold out before launch due to strong demand. The UK is seen as a vibrant market for AI, with government support and growing presence of tech companies. Plans for further capacity expansion are in place.
Capacity Expansion Challenges and Power Supply ConcernsDiscusses constraints on capacity growth due to power and supply chain issues, updates on securing 2.5 GW of power, and progress on New Jersey facility handed over to Microsoft.
AI Cloud Development, Power to GPU Deployment, and Customer Segment Progress UpdatesDiscussions centered on AI cloud expansion, ensuring balanced demand and supply, and maintaining a sustainable business model. The lead time from power connection to GPU revenue generation was detailed, along with updates on progress with primary customer segments, emphasizing strategic flexibility and responsible growth.
Expanding AI Business, Welcoming New Customers, and Enhancing Enterprise ReadinessA company highlights its robust demand in core AI business, welcoming new customers like Cursor AI, Black Forest Labs, and World Labs, while making strides in enterprise readiness and expanding sales teams for future growth.
Token Factory's Role in Expanding AI Market and Demand for Blackwell GenerationThe dialogue discusses Token Factory's strategy to support vertical AI product builders and enterprises by transforming open-source models into optimized systems. It highlights the growing demand for AI inference workloads and the anticipation of increased compute needs. Additionally, there's an emphasis on the shift towards the new Blackwell generation and its anticipated demand compared to the previous Hopper generation.
Strong Demand for GPUs and Strategic Capacity ManagementDiscusses robust demand across all GPU types, pre-selling future capacity, and prioritizing large deals with strong margins, highlighting strategic capacity management and profitability focus.
Update on Greenfield Sites, Facility in Israel, and AI Industry GrowthDiscussed progress on greenfield sites with a focus on Europe and US, highlighted the fully operational facility in Israel with potential for expansion, and noted the government's efforts to boost AI demand through subsidies, presenting opportunities for further growth in the AI industry.
Strategies for Maximizing Margins in Infrastructure Business and Evaluating GPU Market SupplyA company's focus on maximizing margins across various business stages, including entering contracts, raising capital, and developing products, is highlighted. It also discusses the evaluation of GPU market supply, considering potential oversupply with new suppliers entering the market, while emphasizing the importance of organic power contract acquisition and the growing emphasis on self-owned facilities.
Strategic Capacity Management Ensures Financial Resilience Amid Market UncertaintyThe dialogue emphasizes the importance of a phased approach to data center expansion, ensuring supply constraint management and financial stability, particularly as market conditions may change.
Update on Vineland Facility Progress and Microsoft Deal ObligationsThe analysts inquired about challenges concerning the Vineland facility's completion and meeting performance obligations for the Microsoft deal. The response confirmed that the first phase was successfully handed over to Microsoft, and operations are proceeding as planned. The call concluded with a commitment to update stakeholders in the next quarter.
要点回答
Q：What are the key points discussed by the CEO in the earnings conference call?
A：The CEO discussed the strong demand environment, the capacity plan to meet growing demand, and recent major deals signed, including one with Meta. He emphasized the company's focus on building its core AI cloud business and highlighted progress made with AI native startups. The CEO also outlined plans to accelerate capacity growth and shared details on the company's financial guidance for 2025.
Q：What are the details of the new major deal announced by the company?
A：The company signed a major deal with Meta, which is expected to be worth approximately $3 million over the next five years. The deal was limited by the amount of available capacity, indicating that if more capacity had been available, the deal size could have been larger. The CEO mentioned that this contract size was the maximum they could provide due to existing capacity constraints.
Q：How does the company plan to address the capacity issue to support revenue growth?
A：To address the capacity issue and support revenue growth, the company has accelerated its plans to secure more capacity. They are focusing on capacity as the main bottleneck to revenue growth and are working to remove this constraint. The company's capacity footprint is being significantly invested in, along with their main products, the AI cloud to target large market opportunities.
Q：What are the financial projections for 2026 mentioned in the call?
A：For 2026, the company expects its contracted capacity to grow to 2.5 GW, up from 1 GW discussed in previous calls. They plan to have power connected to their data centers, fully built of approximately 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of 2026. The company also believes that with the accelerated capacity growth plan, they can achieve a projected annual revenue run rate of 7 to 9 billion by the end of 2026.
Q：What new products and platforms were released by the company?
A：The company released the new enterprise-ready platform called Edge and the new inference platform called Medias Factory. Edge is believed to provide organizations with trust, control, and simplicity for critical AI workloads, while Medias Factory is a production-scale inference platform that allows running open-source models with reliability, visibility, and control.
Q：What financing strategies is the company employing to support its growth plans?
A：The company is utilizing multiple sources of financing to support its aggressive growth plans. These include corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. Specifically, they plan to raise asset-backed debt supported by the creditworthiness of their largest customers, and have initiated an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares. They will evaluate the program regularly based on capital needs.
Q：When are the mega deals with Microsoft expected to start contributing to revenue, and what will their impact be?
A：The mega deals with Microsoft are expected to start serving and contributing to revenue late in the current quarter, with the majority of the revenue from these deals ramping up during the course of 2026.
Q：What is the expected adjusted EBITDA for the group by the end of 2025, and what is the updated 2025 CapEx guidance?
A：By the end of 2025, the group is expected to be slightly positive at the adjusted EBITDA level. The 2025 CapEx guidance has been raised from approximately $2 billion to $5 billion to $2.5 billion, reflecting the strong demand outlook and the decision to secure critical infrastructure.
Q：What is the new deal with Meta worth and what does it signify for the company?
A：The new deal with Meta is worth approximately $3 billion. This deal signifies that the company's capacity could have been larger if more was available, indicating potential for future large deals and optimism about the increasing occurrence of such deals.
Q：What are the components of the updated 2026 ARR outlook of $79 billion?
A：The updated 2026 ARR outlook of $79 billion is based on the company's capacity expansion, client demand, and the allocation of capacity to different customer categories based on deal economics. It includes the new and existing capacity, and long-term contracts signed with Microsoft and Meta, with more than half of the target already booked.
Q：What is the projected growth in the company's infrastructure build-outs and how does it relate to achieving the 2.5 GW goal?
A：The company is ramping up capacity rapidly to meet future growth needs, with regions like Israel, UK, and New Jersey already seeing pre-sales and growth. New phases in Finland and additional data centers in the U.S. and Europe are being developed. With these plans, the company is confident it will meet its 2.5 GW goal by the end of 2026.
Q：What is the company's philosophy on CapEx spending and what are its plans?
A：The company's CapEx strategy is focused on rapidly expanding capacity to meet growing demand. Plans include achieving 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026, with additional data centers and new regions. The company is actively pursuing securing new sites to further increase capacity.
Q：How is the company expecting Microsoft and Meta deals to affect its revenue, and when will the full impact be felt?
A：The Microsoft contract will not have a significant impact on revenue and ARR in 2025, with the initial delivery not contributing much due to the timing. However, starting in 2027, the full annual revenue run rate from the Microsoft deal is expected. With Meta, the deployments are concluding soon, and the company expects to achieve a full revenue run rate in 2026.
Q：What is the current demand environment and how does it impact the company's future plans?
A：The demand environment is strong, with an exceptional pipeline generation that has been constrained by the company's capacity limitations. The demand is expected to continue growing, and the company is focusing on rapidly building capacity and pipeline to meet this demand into 2026.
Q：Why did incremental ARR decrease in the September quarter and what is expected for Q4?
A：The decrease in incremental ARR in the September quarter is due to capacity constraints that prevented the company from converting pipeline into sales. However, as the company adds more capacity in Q4, it expects a significant increase in incremental ARR for that quarter.
Q：What proportion of the total capital expenditure does each stage of data center capacity building represent?
A：Securing land and power accounts for approximately 1%, the building and connectivity portion is around 18-20%, and the deployment of GPUs accounts for the main part, around 80% of the total capital expenditure.
Q：What is the company's plan for building data centers based on their capital availability and demand?
A：The company plans to secure 2.5 GW of total capacity and intends to physically build 800 to 1 GW of connected data centers by the end of the year, deploying GPUs in line with contracted or clearly visible demand.
Q：What is the updated target for GW of contracted power, and how does it relate to potential revenue?
A：The updated target is to achieve 2.5 GW of contracted power, which is not directly equated to over 20 billion in revenue. The focus is on securing power access and building out capacity while considering capital constraints and future demand.
Q：How will the company manage future growth and differentiation while servicing a broader range of customers?
A：The company aims to build partnerships with customers, including startups, software vendors, and enterprises, not just to meet their current capacity needs but also to support their future requirements. This involves deploying capacity based on the demand observed and utilizing an existing pipeline.
Q：What financing options is the company exploring for its capital-intensive business?
A：The company is actively evaluating a range of financing options including asset-backed financing, corporate-level debt, and equity financing to maintain a disciplined capital structure and maximize shareholder value.
Q：Why is the company planning to pursue an ATM (at-the-market) equity program?
A：The company is implementing an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million class A shares to ensure it has more tools to access capital markets when needed, as part of a long-term strategy to finance future growth opportunities.
Q：How are the early operations of the new UK facility progressing?
A：The early operations of the new UK facility are progressing very well. The official launch was made last week, and the facility is expected to come online in the next week or so. The UK facility is already nearly fully booked even before it goes live, reflecting strong demand.
Q：What are the constraints to growing in the near term and medium term to capture more demand?
A：The near-term challenges to increasing capacity are mainly securing power and managing the supply chain.
Q：What recent progress has been made in terms of capacity and power supply?
A：Recent progress includes securing a roadmap for 2.5 GW of capacity, which is an increase from the previously announced 1 GW.
Q：What is the current status of the New Jersey facility?
A：The New Jersey facility is proceeding as planned, with the first tranch already handed over to Microsoft, and the team is currently on a critical function with the Federal government.
Q：What are the concerns regarding the AI sector and the potential bubble?
A：While there is a significant demand for AI at the moment, similar to historical AI cycles, it's recognized that an imbalance between demand and supply is temporary and will eventually level out. The focus is on growing AI capacity and creating real business value with AI in the enterprise market.
Q：What is the lead time between connecting power and having GPUs operational to generate revenue?
A：The lead time from connecting power to starting the deployment of GPUs can generally take between 6 to 12 weeks, and it can be even quicker for existing sites.
Q：How is the company progressing with its primary customer segments?
A：There is strong demand from core AI business customers, expansion with existing customers, and addition of new customers like disruptors in the AI space. The company is also making strides in healthcare, life sciences, physical AI, and media and entertainment sectors.
Q：Can you provide details on the revised 2025 year-end revenue guidance?
A：The focus remains on building a large company and the revenue model's resilience and scalability. The company is well on track to hit the ARR guidance range of $900 million to $1.1 billion at the end of 2025, while also setting the stage for substantial revenue growth in 2026 and beyond.
Q：How is the enterprise initiative ramping up?
A：The company is making strides toward enterprise readiness with the launch of new AI cloud improvements, compliance and security certifications, and functionality for proactive management. They are also expanding the sales team for coverage in enterprise software vendors and key verticals, laying the groundwork for strong enterprise adoption in 2026.
Q：What is the opportunity around the launch of Token Factory?
A：The launch of Token Factory provides a platform for vertical AI product builders and enterprises to build AI solutions at scale, transforming open source models into production-ready systems with guaranteed performance and transparent cost per token.
Q：What demand is being seen for new Blackwell generation and how does it compare to the previous Hopper generation?
A：There is strong demand for both new Blackwell generation and the previous Hopper generation. All types of GPUs remain in high demand, with sold-out capacities in Q3 and nearly sold-out status in Q4. There is extremely positive demand for Hoppers, often at better pricing, and very strong demand for Blackwells, with pre-sales of capacity before the facilities even opened.
Q：What is the strategy regarding larger deals and what is the focus of the company in this context?
A：The company is focused on large deals that provide the best margins rather than growth itself. Decisions are made with an emphasis on margins and profitability.
Q：Can you provide more details regarding the greenfield sites, specifically in the EU and US DC locations?
A：The company has made great progress with a robust pipeline both in Europe and the US. They are securing power for data centers and have plans to further expand capacity. The Israel data center is fully live and in the UK, a facility was launched a couple of weeks before the speech.
Q：What update can be provided on the facility in Israel?
A：The facility in Israel is fully live and at capacity, having been pre-sold. There are opportunities to expand further, and the Israeli market has a lot of demand and interest in technology and AI.
Q：How does the company approach potential partnerships or acquisitions related to power or land for data centers?
A：The company is focused on margins and seeks to secure long-term power contracts. They are efficient at integrating and building data centers and have looked into potential power and land markets. However, so far, building their own facilities has proven more profitable. They will continue to consider different opportunities but prioritize their own facilities.
Q：Is there a chance of GPU oversupply in the coming year with new suppliers entering the market?
A：The company believes that the market will still be supply constrained at least through 2026 due to data center capacity being the limiting factor. The conservative approach to stages such as power and building the facilities is meant to avoid overbuilding and maintain a good financial position, even in the face of potential market downturns.
Q：What are the challenges regarding the completion of the Vinalhaven facility and meeting performance obligations of the Microsoft deal?
A：The company is on track with the completion of the Vinalhaven facility and has already handed over the first phase to Microsoft. They are continuing to work according to the plan.
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