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思科 (CSCO.US) 2026财年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Cisco reports robust Q1 FY2026 earnings, with revenue and EPS exceeding guidance. AI infrastructure, campus networking, and strategic partnerships drive growth. The company forecasts a record year, emphasizing innovation, operational efficiency, and shareholder returns. Key highlights include doubled AI orders from hyperscalers, strong campus refresh demand, and a $2B+ security pipeline for AI use cases, positioning Cisco for a strong FY2026.
会议速览
Cisco's Q1 FY2026 Financial Results: Strong Revenue Growth and AI Infrastructure Demand
Cisco reported a strong start to fiscal year 2026 with Q1 revenue and earnings per share exceeding guidance. Total revenue increased by 8%, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions. Product orders grew 13% year-over-year, with significant growth in networking, AI infrastructure, and industrial IoT. The company expects to recognize $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026, reflecting strong demand for advanced AI use cases and coherent pluggable optics.
Cisco Expands AI and Security Partnerships, Innovates for Edge and Data Center Solutions
Cisco highlights strategic AI and security advancements, including expanded partnerships with G42, Nvidia, and Splunk. The company introduces innovations like CCO Week and Cisco Data Fabric, aiming to support AI workloads from data centers to the edge. Strong demand across markets and geographies is noted, with a focus on digital resilience and shareholder value. Fiscal year 26 is anticipated as a pivotal period for AI-driven growth.
Strong Q1 Performance and Strategic Investments Highlight Cisco's Fiscal 2026 Outlook
Cisco reported robust Q1 fiscal 2026 results, exceeding guidance with strong revenue, margin, and EPS growth. Networking led with 15% growth, driven by AI infrastructure. Product orders surged 13%, and non-GAAP gross margin was 68.1%. Guidance for Q2 assumes current tariffs, with a focus on durable growth and disciplined spending. Shareholders received $3.6 billion returns.
Financial Forecast and Guidance Disclosure
The dialogue outlines anticipated financial performance, including revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and earnings per share for both current and future periods, with tax rate and guidance provided. A transition to Q&A follows, emphasizing single questions and follow-ups.
Cisco's Hyperscale AI Orders Growth and Enterprise Pipeline Expansion
Cisco discusses robust growth in hyperscale AI orders, projecting at least double the orders from the same customers compared to the previous fiscal year. The company highlights successful sales in networking infrastructure, pluggable optics, and inferencing use cases, along with triple-digit growth from four major hyperscalers. Additionally, the enterprise pipeline for Neo Cloud and sovereign cloud exceeds $2 billion, with $200 million booked in Q1, indicating strong future opportunities.
AI Orders Strength, DRAM Pricing Impact on Margins
Discussion focused on AI orders' strength attributed to deepening existing use cases and scaling opportunities, alongside DRAM pricing impacts considered in updated guidance.
Investigating the Slow Growth of Bank of America's Core Business
An analyst questions the minimal 3.6% growth of Bank of America's core business, excluding AI backend and future guidance, seeking explanation for the underwhelming expansion amidst expected advancements in WiFi, campus, and security technologies.
Q1 Business Growth, HyperScaler Impact, and Challenging Year-Over-Year Comparisons in Q2 to Q4
The dialogue discusses Q1 orders growth, normalizing hyperscaler impact, noting 9% growth for the rest of the business. It forecasts tougher year-over-year comparisons in Q3 and Q4, emphasizing current strong momentum and future challenges.
Multi-Year Cycles in Network Infrastructure Modernization and AI Workload Readiness
The discussion revolves around the multi-year nature of cycles in network infrastructure upgrades, driven by end-of-support deadlines for older systems and the increasing demand for modernization to support AI and inferencing workloads. Rapid ramp-up of new product launches, such as enterprise routing, WiFi 7, and campus switches, indicates strong customer interest. Enhanced security features in new switching platforms are also resonating with customers, who are preparing for future agent workflows by integrating security deeply into the network.
Silicon One's Penetration and Shifts to Cloud in Networking and Security
The dialogue discusses the progress of Silicon One integration into the product portfolio, emphasizing its performance, programmability, and low power consumption. It also highlights the benefits of cloud adoption for Splunk, noting a positive shift in ARR and RPO despite short-term revenue timing issues.
Campus Network Upgrades & Government Cybersecurity Initiatives
Discussion highlights faster adoption of campus network upgrades driven by end-of-life products and AI/security integration. Government cybersecurity pressures push for equipment updates amid federal growth.
Optical Demand in Data Centers and AI Orders Progression
Discusses strong growth in optical solutions, participation in data center and outside markets, and AI orders progression, clarifying sovereign orders not included in the 2x number.
Navigating Export License Requirements for Second Half Fiscal Year Projections
The dialogue discusses the necessity of obtaining export licenses for various cases, anticipating their impact to commence in the second half of the fiscal year. It emphasizes that these projections do not significantly alter the current year's guidance.
Strategies for Enhancing AI Sales, Partner Programs, and Security Revenue
Discussed AMD partnerships, AI sales targets, and margin expectations, alongside updates on the partner program aimed at streamlining incentives and focusing on growth areas like AI, security, and premium services, addressing concerns over security revenue normalization post-mix shifts.
Commitment to Revenue Growth Amid Security Challenges
Discusses maintaining a mid-teens revenue guide for security despite a 2% drop, predicting acceleration and normalization of mix shifts, with transparency and guidance baked into future expectations.
Revenue Growth Drivers and Supply Chain Capacity for AI and Hyperscale Orders
Discussion covers revenue increase attribution to early enterprise refresh and AI growth, with emphasis on securing supply chain capacity to meet rising demand in hyperscale orders.
Exploring Cisco Unified Edge: Opportunities, Deployment Strategies, and Scale-up Plans
The dialogue discusses Cisco's Unified Edge technology, emphasizing its potential in retail, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors. It explores various deployment strategies including CDN, telco networks, and on-premises solutions. The conversation also outlines Cisco's intent to participate in scale-up opportunities with future silicon offerings and partnerships.
Campus Refresh Motivations and Global Public Sector Investment Trends
The dialogue explores the drivers behind campus refresh initiatives, clarifying misconceptions about the age of the installed base post-pandemic flush. It highlights ongoing investment needs in unsupported equipment, signaling potential for upgrades. The conversation also delves into global public sector spending, noting robust growth in Europe, the UK, and Germany, alongside strong international government contributions, driven by sovereignty priorities.
Transitioning to Final Analyst in Queue for Cleveland Research
The dialogue concludes by inviting the final analyst from Cleveland Research to proceed with their analysis, marking the end of the analyst queue.
AI Buildout vs. Internet Boom: A Faster, More Robust Transition
A discussion on how the current AI buildout compares to the late 90s internet boom, emphasizing faster transition speed and investment by strong, profitable companies viewing AI as existential.
Concentration of Investment and Rapid Pace of Innovation Shaping Future Business
The dialogue highlights the significant difference in the pace and nature of business investment compared to the turn of the century, noting a concentration of spend from profitable companies with strong balance sheets, impacting society and business dynamics.
Cisco's Network Innovation Leadership in AI Era
Cisco's leadership highlighted network innovation in AI era, emphasizing team efforts, customer focus, and growth opportunities in hyperscalers, enterprise, and cloud sectors. Upcoming Q2 FY2026 results call scheduled for Feb 11, 2026, at 1:30 PM Pacific/4:30 PM Eastern time.
要点回答
Q:What were the financial results of Cisco's first quarter in fiscal year 2026?
A:In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Cisco reported strong financial results with Q1 revenue and earnings per share coming in above the high end of guidance ranges. Total revenue increased 8% year over year, with product revenue up 10%, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions. Non GAAP EPS grew 10%, and the company returned $3.6 billion in capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing 125% of free cash flow in Q1. Annualized recurring revenue and remaining performance obligations also provided a strong foundation for future performance.
Q:What does Cisco's strong start to fiscal 2026 indicate about market demand for AI infrastructure?
A:Cisco's strong start to fiscal 2026 indicates a massive opportunity for the company in providing critical infrastructure for the AI era. According to the 2025 Global AI Readiness Index, only one third of organizations' IT infrastructure can accommodate their planned AI projects, which signals a need for modern, scalable, and secure networking infrastructure. This creates a significant opportunity for Cisco with its leading networking portfolio and AI-native security solutions.
Q:How did total product orders grow in the first quarter and which customer segments contributed to this growth?
A:Total product orders grew 13% year over year in the first quarter with contributions from all geographies and customer markets. Enterprise product orders grew 4% year over year, with strength in campus switching and wireless solutions contributing to public sector orders growth of 12% year over year. Service provider and cloud customer product orders increased 45% year over year, driven by high double-digit order growth in hyperscalers. Telco customer orders also showed strong growth, increasing more than 25% year over year.
Q:What is the expected growth in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal year 2026?
A:Cisco expects to recognize roughly $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal year 2026 as these customers look to extend AI clusters across their infrastructure. This is marked by the acceleration in growth in AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers, which total $1.3 billion, balanced between Silicon 1 systems and optics.
Q:What are the details of the latest Cisco 8223 router and its significance?
A:The latest Cisco 8223 router, announced in the first quarter, is the first to market 51.2 Tb per second fixed Ethernet routing system designed for intense AI workload traffic between data centers. This router features Silicon 1 P200 chips and is aimed at providing performance and speed across data centers, which was previously achievable only within data centers with a switching infrastructure.
Q:How is Cisco expanding its strategic partnerships?
A:Cisco is expanding its strategic partnerships to capture AI opportunities, including an expansion of the partnership with G42 in the UAE to power, connect, and secure large-scale AI clusters featuring AMD GPUs. Other partnerships include collaborations with Humane and Stargate UAE, as well as an expanded sovereign critical infrastructure portfolio for European customers. The company also announced a new partnership with Nvidia, introducing the N 9100 switch based on Spectrum Silicon, which is the first to offer networking compliant with Nvidia's Cloud reference architecture.
Q:What is the performance of Cisco's security portfolio and its recent innovations?
A:The performance of Cisco's security portfolio is strong, with order growth for new and refreshed products that comprise one third of the security portfolio, including secure access XDR, Hyper Shield AI defense, and refreshed firewalls. The company has seen nearly 3000 customer purchases of new products since launch, with mid-teens growth in demand for next-generation firewalls. Recent innovations include the introduction of CCO Week, a converged platform for network edge computing, and Cisco Data Fabric, a Splunk-powered architecture to unify and manage machine data across various sources, which supports enterprises in building AI models with their previously unused proprietary data.
Q:Which segments experienced growth in the Q1 revenue report and which saw a decrease?
A:The growth segments in Q1 were Networking with 15% growth, driven by service provider routing largely from AI infrastructure, followed by data center switching, enterprise routing, and campus switching with double-digit growth. Security revenue was down 2%, influenced by prior generation product declines and a shift to cloud subscriptions. The decrease was in the Collaboration segment, down 3%, reflecting declines in devices and Webex observability which grew by 6%.
Q:What were the changes in total RPO, product RPO, and total Arrangement Revenue (ARR)?
A:Total RPO grew by 7% to 42.9 billion, product RPO grew by 10% to 11.8 billion (of which the longest-term portion was 11.8 billion, up 13%), and total Arrangement Revenue (ARR) ended the quarter at 31.4 billion, an increase of 5%, with product ARR growth of 7%.
Q:What was the non-GAAP operating margin, and how did it compare to guidance?
A:The non-GAAP operating margin was 34.4%, which was above the high end of the guidance range. The non-GAP tax rate was 19% for the quarter.
Q:How much cash, cash equivalents, and investments did Cisco end Q1 with, and what was the reason for the decrease in operating cash flow?
A:Cisco ended Q1 with total cash, cash equivalents, and investments of $15.7 billion. Operating cash flow was $3.2 billion, down 12% due to investments to meet growing customer demand for AI infrastructure.
Q:What is the updated guidance for Q2 and the fiscal year 2026 in terms of revenue and non-GAAP gross margin?
A:For Q2, the revenue is expected to be in the range of $15 billion to $15.2 billion with a non-GAAP gross margin range of 67.5% to 68.5%. The operating margin is expected to be in the range of 33.5% to 34.5%. For the fiscal year, the revenue is expected to be in the range of $60.2 billion to $61 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $4.80 to $5.14.
Q:What was the significance of the $3 billion revenue number mentioned and the expectations for future orders?
A:The $3 billion revenue number mentioned refers to revenue from hyperscale AI infrastructure in the fiscal year. The expectation is that orders for this fiscal year will be at least 2 times the orders received in the previous fiscal year from the same set of customers, indicating a solid pipeline and expanding use cases.
Q:How is the enterprise pipeline positioned for the rest of the fiscal year?
A:The enterprise pipeline for the remaining three quarters of the fiscal year exceeds $2 billion, with $200 million booked in Q1, providing an incremental opportunity for the future, especially as the fiscal year ends.
Q:What is the impact of supply chain challenges on the business?
A:The supply chain challenges have impacted the business with significant price increases for memory, DRAM, and optics. The company has considered these factors in their updated guidance for Q2 and the year.
Q:What are the expected challenges for the second half of the year in terms of sales comparisons?
A:The expected challenges for the second half of the year in terms of sales comparisons are significantly tougher comps. In the first quarter (Q1) and second quarter (Q2) a year ago, the company had order growth rates of -6% and plus 9%, respectively. In contrast, the expected comp growth for the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) is plus 11% and plus 8% on the top line.
Q:What is the significance of the new product launches in the enterprise routing space?
A:The significance of the new product launches in the enterprise routing space is that they are ramping faster than historical launches, which indicates to the company that customers are aggressively adopting these new offerings. The refresh opportunity with the new suite of products, including new Wi-Fi 7 portfolio and campus switches, is driven by the end-of-support for older product lines such as the Cat 4K and Cat 6K. This fast ramp-up suggests strong interest in these new portfolios.
Q:Why are customers focused on modernizing their network infrastructure?
A:Customers are focused on modernizing their network infrastructure in preparation for AI workloads and enhanced functionality. The new switching platforms, which enable security to be deeply integrated into the network, are gaining traction as customers recognize the need to apply security policies directly in the network as traffic moves, rather than offloading it to a firewall.
Q:What is the impact of Silicon One on the product portfolio and revenue projections?
A:Silicon One is gaining traction within the product portfolio and as a standalone product, with projections to fully roll out across the portfolio by the end of fiscal year 29, which is in another 2.5 years. The transition is expected to result in a diverse range of offerings with performance, programmability, and low power consumption. The revenue impact is positive as it allows for greater flexibility and direct adoption by customers.
Q:What caused the shift in revenue mix to cloud during the quarter and what are the long-term implications?
A:The shift in revenue mix to cloud during the quarter was unexpected, with a decrease in on-premise revenue to a third of the total revenue from about 50/50 in the prior quarter. The revenue shift is positive as it indicates customer adoption and allows for real-time innovation. Despite a one-time timing issue on the revenue front, order growth remained positive, and customer demand appears strong. The long-term implication is a stickier relationship with customers and potentially more revenue over time due to the cloud's stickier nature.
Q:What factors contributed to the faster-than-anticipated adoption of the new campus solutions?
A:The faster-than-anticipated adoption of the new campus solutions can be attributed to a variety of factors including competitive products, better competitive strategies, and confusion in the marketplace regarding wireless technology. Additionally, the need for AI preparation and the belief that security must be integrated into the network have also contributed to the increased demand for these solutions.
Q:How does the company plan to address the end-of-life product issue in the context of government and public sector customers?
A:The company plans to address the end-of-life product issue by upgrading customers, particularly government and public sector entities, once funding becomes available and is dispersed. This strategy aims to align with the potential increase in government spending as a result of budgetary changes and to ensure that the equipment is updated for cyber risk management and overall hygiene.
Q:What is the growth outlook for optical solutions in data centers and non-data centers?
A:The company expects strong growth in the optical solutions market, with participation in both data centers and non-data centers. There is a focus on continued innovation and selling of pluggable optics to major hyperscalers. The market for optics is considered large and comparable in value to the switching side of the business.
Q:What are the expected order numbers from hyperscale customers for this year compared to last year?
A:The company anticipates that the number of orders from hyperscale customers for this year will be at least two times the orders received from the same customer group last year, using the same products and customers for measurement.
Q:How significant are the expected orders from sovereign customers to the total?
A:The expected orders from sovereign customers, which amount to $2 billion plus for the remainder of the year, are not included in the 2x number mentioned for hyperscale customers' orders. The reason is that some of these orders will start flowing only in the second half of the fiscal year and they are not considered material to the current year's guidance.
Q:What is the impact of the G 42 partnership with AMD on the company's business, and how important is the integration of compute and networking in data centers?
A:The G 42 partnership with AMD is significant, and the company is optimistic about future collaborations as there are multiple GPU providers, particularly in the inferencing domain. The company aims to be a connectivity layer across various GPUs and other providers, which is anticipated to be important as the demand for integrated compute and networking solutions in data centers becomes more prevalent.
Q:What changes are being made to the channel partner program, and what is the anticipated impact on the business?
A:The company is overhauling its channel partner program to align with growth opportunities and incentivize partners similarly. The new program aims to simplify rewards, incentivize for portfolio breadth and depth of expertise, and focus on core business areas such as campus refresh, AI, security, and premium services. The changes are seen as positive, and the company is committed to addressing any issues that may arise.
Q:What is the contribution of AI sales to the company's revenue, and what are the margins like?
A:AI sales are a significant part of the company's revenue, with a strong margin demonstrated in the first quarter at 68.1%. The company projects top-line growth to exceed bottom-line growth for the remainder of the year, indicating a focus on profitable growth. While exact figures for the contribution of AI sales to the $3 billion target are not provided, the guidance suggests a balanced growth across various business segments including optics, web-scale service providers, and core enterprise portfolios.
Q:How is security revenue expected to normalize after recent challenges, and what impact will it have on future growth?
A:Security revenue is down 2%, but the company remains committed to achieving mid-teens growth in revenue for the security segment. The challenges are attributed to a mix shift that is expected to normalize over the next few quarters, leading to year-over-year comparisons being more favorable. The company doesn't require a significant improvement in security revenue to meet its current guidance for the second quarter or the year.
Q:How much of the incremental revenue in fiscal 26 is attributed to enterprise campus refresh versus AI growth?
A:The incremental revenue of $1 billion in fiscal 26 is a result of a combination of stronger-than-anticipated growth in AI orders and earlier-than-expected refresh in the enterprise campus segment. While specific numbers are not provided, the growth is attributed to a mix of both AI and enterprise campus refresh activities.
Q:Has the company secured sufficient capacity for AI orders, especially from hyperscalers?
A:The company has not provided a direct answer regarding whether it has secured sufficient capacity for a doubling of AI orders among hyperscalers for the year. However, the growth forecast includes an increase in AI orders from hyperscalers and the broader business, indicating an expectation for meaningful growth in this area.
Q:What are the recent trends in inventory and advanced purchase commitments for hyperscale demand?
A:Recent trends show that inventory plus advanced purchase commitments have increased by almost a billion dollars in the last 90 days, with a year-over-year increase of about 38%, amounting to over 3 billion dollars.
Q:What potential opportunities does the Cisco Unified Edge present across different industries?
A:The potential opportunities for the Cisco Unified Edge are significant across various industries including retail, healthcare, and manufacturing, due to its ability to perform real-time inferencing at the edge without sending data back and forth to a data center.
Q:How does the unified edge compare to previous deployment strategies and who are the potential players or partnerships involved?
A:The unified edge revitalizes previous deployment strategies of integrated compute and security. Potential players could include CDN operators, and partnerships with carriers and telcos who can offer it as a consumption service, as well as on-premises deployment by enterprises.
Q:What are the expectations for scale-up silicon offerings and participation in the future market?
A:The company expects to have scale-up silicon offerings in the future, transitioning to a version of Ethernet. It intends to participate in the scale-up market and anticipates releasing products over time for this purpose.
Q:What factors are influencing the motivation for campus refreshes and the strength in the company's international government business?
A:The motivation for campus refreshes is driven by the need to upgrade an estimated billions of dollars of end-of-support equipment that was not upgraded in 2023. The strength in the company's international government business is attributed to investments in public sector infrastructure, especially in Europe, due to defense and geopolitical factors, as well as global sovereignty drives around data and tech.
Q:How does the current AI build-out compare to the late 90s internet build-out in terms of speed, company strength, and societal impact?
A:The current AI build-out is moving even faster than the late 90s internet build-out, with stronger, more profitable, and balanced companies driving the investments. This is considered a key difference, as the current build-out is centered around companies with established business models and balance sheets, resulting in a pace of investment and innovation that is significantly different from the dot-com era.
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