Tempus AI (TEM.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Tempest reported significant growth in genomics and data licensing, achieving positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time. Genomics volume increased by 33%, with oncology and heritability seeing growth of 27% and 37%, respectively. The data licensing business grew 38%, with $150 million in additional bookings. Key drivers include improved sales efficiency, technology integration, and strong market demand. The company plans to leverage AI and genomic diagnostics for sustained growth, aiming for 25% annual growth over the next three years. Integration of Page AI is expected to enhance diagnostics through digital pathology, while MRD reimbursement and regulatory filings are on the horizon.
会议速览
Tempest's Q3 2025 Results: Strong Growth in Genomics and Data Licensing, Achieving Positive Adjusted EBITDATempest reported a strong Q3 2025 with 33% growth in genomics, particularly in oncology and heritability. The data licensing business also saw a 38% increase, securing an additional $1 million in total contract value. Notably, the company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, despite the acquisition of Page, indicating effective cost management and rapid business growth.
Analysis of Genomics Business Growth FactorsDiscussion focuses on attributing oncology portfolio's strong volume growth to either broader industry shift towards NGS testing or internal execution improvements, highlighting market dynamics and company-specific strategies.
Enhanced Sales Force Efficiency and Comprehensive Technology Drive Industry SuccessA year-long effort to enhance sales force efficiency, coupled with advanced technology for delivering comprehensive medical results, is fueling growth. The industry benefits from increased testing volumes due to new biomarker discoveries. Unlike competitors, this entity's sustained growth is not reliant on one-time benefits from specific assays, showcasing a robust and durable market position.
Strategic Approach to MRD Testing Market Expansion and Growth TargetsThe dialogue discusses the company's strategy for entering the MRD testing market, leveraging a large sales team, and achieving sustained 25% growth over the next three years, focusing on a balanced and long-term approach to market penetration and revenue growth.
Analysis of New Contracts and Backlog GrowthDiscussion on newly disclosed contracts, including multi-year data licensing deals, highlights a significant backlog and future revenue potential, emphasizing successful large-scale signings.
Unique Data Assets Drive Growth in Oncology DiagnosticsOur data product stands out due to unique assets and proprietary tools, attracting regular licensing and expanding our lead over well-established competitors in oncology diagnostics.
Discussion on Market Trends, FDA Approvals, and Reimbursement Strategies for Cancer DiagnosticsA dialogue covers market trends in solid and liquid tumor testing, emphasizing growth without significant shifts. It outlines plans for FDA submissions for Xf and XR, anticipating adlt status and potential Medicare price increases. The conversation highlights current reimbursement levels and future regulatory efforts to enhance them.
Performance Review: Employee Outperforming ExpectationsAn employee is noted for consistently exceeding performance expectations, prompting a review of their contributions and potential for further advancement.
Analysis of Industry Growth, Market Share, and ASP Trends in Genetic TestingDiscussed factors driving industry growth, with a focus on share gains and organic expansion. Genetic testing market growth is anticipated to be in the low double digits, with a company's hereditary cancer testing expected to surpass this at low to mid-twenty percent. Assay pricing (ASP) remains stable, influenced by payer agreements, with potential increases if rare disease testing expands significantly. The company is poised to become a major player in the rare disease testing segment over the next 12 to 18 months.
Navigating Revenue Projections Amid Amber GrowthDiscussion on Amber's revenue impact and the cautious approach to adjusting guidance, emphasizing long-term growth over short-term gains in the face of Amber's mid-to-high teens growth rate increase to low-to-mid twenties.
Updates on Foundation Model Progress with AstraZeneca, Pathos, and Page AcquisitionThe foundation model project with AstraZeneca and Pathos is progressing well, with pre-training nearly complete. The team is optimistic about the model's predictive capabilities and is preparing for large-scale compute phases. The acquisition of Page has bolstered efforts, integrating their digital pathology foundation model work and enhancing data aggregation for insights. Additional GPU capacity is being procured to support ongoing advancements, positioning the company as a tech leader in AI and compute investments.
Reimbursement Challenges and Opportunities for Data Analysis in HealthcareDiscussion focuses on the potential for healthcare systems to reimburse for data interpretation and analysis, highlighting Tempus' unique position with scalable algorithms and FDA-approved technologies. The speaker expresses confidence in future reimbursement pathways, emphasizing the necessity of intelligent solutions to manage healthcare costs effectively.
Synergies of Digital Pathology with Genomic Diagnostics for Enhanced Patient OutcomesThe dialogue explores how digital pathology algorithms complement genomic diagnostics, offering solutions when sequencing fails and enabling quicker predictions for critical cases. The speaker highlights the benefits of a multimodal data approach and compares strategic investments in healthcare technology to Amazon's expansion strategy, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive, high-quality, and rapid data-driven insights.
Investment in MRD Research and Upcoming Data for High Sensitivity AssaysDiscussion focuses on investments in MRD research, highlighting upcoming data from tumor naive assays in lung and CRC, as well as potential advancements competing with tumor-informed methods. Plans to publish and present findings regularly are emphasized, along with anticipation for high sensitivity assay market entries within the next 12 months.
要点回答
Q：What were the highlights in the company's data licensing business?
A：The company's data licensing business grew 38% in the quarter, with an additional $1 million in total contract value and strong bookings across multiple contracts.
Q：What impact did the acquisition of Page have on the company's adjusted EBITDA, and what is the revised expectation for the year?
A：The acquisition of Page resulted in several million dollars worth of additional expenses. Despite this, the company generated positive adjusted EBITDA of close to $4 million, and even with the additional expenses from Page, the company now expects to be slightly positive in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
Q：What factors contributed to the company's genomics business success?
A：The company's genomics business success is attributed to a more efficient sales force and the adoption of their technology, which allows for highly contextualized, comprehensive results for physicians.
Q：How does the company plan to enter the market with MRD testing and what are the implications of reimbursement?
A：The company has a partnership with Personalis for MRD testing and plans to enter the market assuming reimbursement is approved in the coming weeks or months. The speed of market entry will depend on the timing of reimbursement. The company intends to leverage its sales team to compete against other labs in the space.
Q：What is the expected growth trajectory for the company's MRD tests?
A：The company expects to dial up its MRD tests in a more aggressive manner as reimbursement becomes more affordable, indicating an expectation to gradually increase testing as opposed to a sudden, large-scale push.
Q：What is the status of the company's portfolio of products and planned investments?
A：The company has a strong portfolio of naive products and inform products including studies with a more sensitive version of their tumor naive assay. They are investing heavily in this space and plan to leverage their large sales force, with a subset well-trained in MRD, to further support growth.
Q：Why did the company decide to disclose new contracts and bookings in the current quarter?
A：The company aims to provide some color on the size of data deals when they reach a significant level. They have been disclosing large data licensing deals, such as the recent deal with AZ pathways, which have several hundred million dollars of additional data licensing. Bookings are disclosed when they are substantial and worth highlighting, regardless of the specific quarter.
Q：What is the typical duration of the company's data licensing contracts and what does the disclosed booking figure represent?
A：The company's data licensing contracts are multi-year in nature. A $150 million data licensing deal, signed in a particular quarter, does not necessarily translate to $150 million in revenue in the next quarter or year as it is spread over the multi-year duration. The total contract value is in a 'great spot' and will be disclosed annually; currently, the company has disclosed more than $350 million in bookings.
Q：What is the company's differentiation in the oncology data space and what are the expectations for future performance?
A：The company's differentiation in the oncology data space is due to their unique data assets and the investments made in proprietary products. They expect to continue pulling further away from competitors and see no signs of a slowdown in performance.
Q：What was the growth performance of the solid tumor and liquid assays, and what is the implication for future volumes?
A：The growth in the solid tumor assay and liquid was reported to be very good without any indication of a fundamental shift from solid to liquid. However, in some studies like Serena 6, there may be potential for additional volumes in the liquid portfolio in the future.
Q：What is the current status of reimbursement for the company's tests, and what are the expectations for future reimbursement?
A：Reimbursement is expected to benefit from long-term tailwinds. Approximately 30% of the volume has been migrated to the FDA-approved or adlt version and plans are in place to migrate the majority over to this version throughout 2026. The company is also planning to submit Xf to the FDA by the end of the year, which is anticipated to provide upside to current reimbursement levels.
Q：How did Amber's performance in the latest quarter compare to the previous one, and what is the impact on share gains?
A：Amber's performance was ahead of expectations in the latest quarter, with about 50% of the gain coming from share gains, similar to the last quarter. However, it is expected that share gains will moderate in Q4, with a more likely scenario of low to mid-20s growth rather than tracking at current levels.
Q：What is the expected growth rate for the hereditary cancer business, and how does it compare to overall market growth?
A：The company believes its hereditary cancer business will grow in the low to mid-20s, which is significantly above market growth. This is attributed to having the gold standard assays in the market. Growth rates in the high teens or low 20s are possible, but not expected to continue as a long-term trend.
Q：How are the average selling prices (ASPs) for Amber's tests expected to change, and what factors could influence this?
A：The average selling prices (ASPs) for Amber's tests have been fairly consistent over the past few quarters, down slightly year over year due to renegotiated agreements with one of their larger payers. The only factor that may impact ASPs is the rare business segment, which currently constitutes a small part of overall testing but has a higher ASP. If it continues to scale, it will affect ASPs.
Q：What is the company's strategy regarding the rare cancer segment and its potential impact on revenue?
A：The company is growing in the rare cancer segment and sees potential to make significant progress and become a major player within the next 12 to 18 months.
Q：How will the additional revenue from Amber's outperformance be factored into the company's guidance for the year?
A：The company plans to take an approach of not getting ahead of expectations and aims to consistently outperform. Even with outperforming by an additional 15 to 20 million in revenue, they prefer not to raise expectations artificially. Instead, the focus is on delivering sustainable, long-term growth rather than short-term anomalies.
Q：What are the current milestones for the foundation model work being done in collaboration with AstraZeneca and Pathos?
A：The current milestone for the foundation model work includes finishing pre-training, which is going exceptionally well. Small models, both single and multimodal, are being run to check their performance against common benchmarks. Following the successful pre-training phase, the team is set to move into large compute over the next several months, with post-training expected early next year, leading to the first versions of the model entering Quality Assurance.
Q：What progress is being made in the foundation model work and what are the team's sentiments?
A：The team is very happy with the progress made in the foundation model work. There are no red flags, and the team is actively procuring additional GPU capacity to double down on their advantage. The work is progressing well, and the team feels optimistic about the future.
Q：How does the new foundation model work integrate with the company's other projects, such as digital pathology?
A：The foundation model team has connected with the digital pathology team, and they are now part of the same team. Data is being aggregated, and insights are being understood, which has created quite a bit of good momentum.
Q：What is the company's position on the future of reimbursement for AI services in the healthcare system?
A：The company believes that as AI integration increases in healthcare, reimbursement for AI services will become crucial to prevent issues with an unsustainable healthcare system. There is uncertainty about reimbursement for lab services at present, but the company anticipates that reimbursement will eventually improve. In the meantime, the company invests heavily in creating value that will be quickly distributed across their network should reimbursement become feasible.
Q：What synergies does Paige bring to the genomic diagnostics business?
A：Paige's AI pathology applications bring synergies and leverage to the company's genomic diagnostics business. One example of synergy is that digital pathology can enhance sequencing results, such as predicting common mutations in sequencing failure cases, allowing for quicker return of results to physicians. This integration will enable the company to make predictions and enhance their multimodal approach to patient data analysis.
Q：What data should investors look out for regarding the company's investments in multi-modal approaches?
A：Investors should look out for data from studies involving tumor naive and informed assays, especially from non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer studies. The company has run studies in these areas and expects to publish interesting data from their tumor naive assay in both lung and CRC. Additionally, the company has a large and talented technical team working on enhancing these technologies, and investors are advised to follow updates from the company's publications, posters, and presentations.
