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超微电脑 (SMCI.US) 2026财年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Supermicro discusses its strategic expansion in AI compute solutions and data center infrastructure, highlighting successful partnerships, selective growth, and new market opportunities. The company emphasizes its engineering capabilities, selective revenue growth, and risk management strategies, aiming for long-term profitability and market leadership. Financially, Supermicro reports strong revenue growth and outlines plans for improving gross margins and expanding its global manufacturing footprint.
会议速览
Supermicro's Q1 & FY 2026 Results: Leading AI Growth with Innovative Solutions
Supermicro reports strong Q1 and FY 2026 results, highlighting its leading AI portfolio, including Nvidia GB 300 and MP 303 products. The company sees rapid growth in AI compute demand, with over $13 billion in back orders. Supermicro is also preparing for upcoming Nvidia and AMD launches, focusing on generative AI and industry-specific models. Its DC BPS solution is critical for accelerating data center transformation, supporting a robust growth trajectory.
Super Micro's Strategic Expansion in AI Data Center Solutions for Enhanced Efficiency and Growth
Super Micro is aggressively expanding its global production capacity, focusing on AI data center infrastructure with innovations like TCPP for rapid deployment and reduced total cost of ownership. The company is investing in new facilities worldwide to meet growing demand, aiming for at least $10.5 billion in revenue for the upcoming quarter, with expectations of $36 billion by fiscal 2026, positioning itself as a leader in AI platform and data center solutions.
Q1 Revenue Decline Amid Robust Customer Demand and Record New Orders
Despite a significant year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter revenue decline, the company anticipates strong customer demand for the remainder of fiscal year 26. Record new orders exceeding $13 billion and a strategic customer base shift towards Asia highlight key growth areas. Operating expenses decreased, but cash flow used in operations increased. Non-GAAP diluted EPS met expectations.
Q1 Financials, Q2 Outlook: Sales, Margins, and Capital Expenditure Updates
Discussed Q1 financials with increased inventory and accounts receivable impacting cash flow. Outlined Q2 expectations including sales, margins, and capex, highlighting strategic investments and design wins. Provided guidance on net sales, diluted EPS, and operating expenses, emphasizing growth in higher margin segments.
Revenue Growth Drivers and DC BPS Impact on Margins in the Chipset Market
Discussion focuses on revenue guidance driven by chipset availability and market share, with Nvidia blackware allocation as a key factor. The dialogue also explores the potential of DC BPS solutions to impact gross margins and customer feedback, highlighting their role in accelerating data center deployment and efficiency.
Strong Order Pipeline Drives Revenue Growth with Focus on GPU and Data Center Solutions
A company discusses its robust order pipeline, emphasizing contributions from GPU and data center solutions, and outlines strategies for improving gross margins and managing increased Opex to support revenue growth. The company highlights the expansion of customer base, including high-value, long-term partners, and the ramping of production to meet growing demand, aiming for efficient global service and profitability enhancement.
Revenue Growth and Capacity Expansion in Upcoming Quarters
Discussion on the company's revenue guidance for upcoming quarters, highlighting capacity expansion, global supplier readiness, and efforts to improve profitability through total solution offerings.
Fiscal Year Expectations: Neo Cloud's Strength, Revenue Growth, and Margin Improvements
A discussion on fiscal year expectations for Neo Cloud, highlighting the company's anticipated strength, revenue growth, and efforts towards improving gross margins, with a focus on market leadership and technology advancements.
Capacity Expansion, Working Capital Management, and Future Growth Strategies in Manufacturing
Discussed the current manufacturing capacity, including Malaysia's production ramp-up, with a focus on maintaining high quality and reliability. Explained the potential revenue from full utilization, emphasizing a conservative approach to scaling. Addressed working capital needs and cash flow management strategies, including accounts receivable sales programs, to support revenue growth without tapping markets prematurely.
Supermicro's Strategy for Partnering with X AI and Revenue Growth through Selective Expansion
The discussion revolves around Supermicro's rationale for partnering with X AI, validating their engineering capabilities, and the company's strategy for selective revenue growth based on cash flow. It highlights Supermicro's role as a premier provider of advanced data center solutions and AI data centers, emphasizing their capacity and capability growth. The approach includes working with X AI to learn and improve services, maintaining a long-term partnership, and continuing to secure additional business through successful installations, while being selective about expanding revenue to ensure sustainable growth.
Exploring Gross Margin Impacts of New Facilities and Federal Program Initiatives
Discussion covers the impact of new facilities on gross margin, emphasizing capacity investment and future growth. Also, the creation and positioning of a federal program for government contracts are highlighted, showcasing the company's design, manufacturing, and service capabilities.
Strategies for Enhancing Margins Post-Initial Investment in Large-Scale Customers
Discusses how reducing margins for initial large orders to gain market share and brand value, leveraging economies of scale, expanding into new geographies, and adding data center solutions can enhance margins over time. Highlights the importance of repeat business and the varying margin profiles based on order sizes and design contributions.
Revenue Trends Amid Project Delays and Gross Margin Insights
Discusses the impact of large projects on quarterly revenue, acknowledging delays due to customer readiness and supply chain issues, while highlighting a consistent upward trend in annual revenue growth. Also, addresses gross margin concerns and clarifies the company's policy on not disclosing backlog, focusing instead on new orders and design wins.
Long-Term Gross Margin Targets Amid Platform Shifts and Competitive Landscape
Discussion revolves around adjusting long-term gross margin targets due to market changes and new platform dynamics, with a focus on achieving double-digit margins through enterprise accounts and supporting large CSPs, despite current competitive challenges.
Navigating Gross Margins and Free Cash Flow Contribution Amid Revenue Growth
The dialogue addresses concerns about gross margins implying 0% contribution margin, emphasizing the importance of free cash flow contribution as the business scales. It reassures stakeholders of a strategy focused on market leadership, rapid innovation, and profitability, aiming for consistent bottom-line growth while expanding market share.
Engineering Costs for High-Volume Technology Deployment Impacting Q4 Margins
Additional engineering, expedite, and overtime costs are being absorbed in Q4 due to the rapid scaling of new technology for a large cluster deployment, which is expected to enhance future quarter performance.
Conference Call Concludes with Appreciation and Acknowledgment of Participation
The dialogue captures the conclusion of a conference call, where the speaker expresses gratitude to all participants, confirms the absence of further questions, and officially ends the call, inviting participants to disconnect.
要点回答
Q:What are the expected revenue figures for the December quarter and the fiscal year 2026?
A:The company expects to ship at least 10.5 billion in the December quarter and anticipate a sequential growth through fiscal 2026, with a confidence in achieving at least 36 billion in revenue for the year.
Q:What were the revenue figures for Q1 fiscal year 26 and how did they compare to guidance and the prior quarter?
A:Q1 fiscal year 26 revenue was $5 billion, down 15% year over year and down 13% quarter over quarter compared to guidance of 6 billion to 7 billion. There was a record level of new orders, but the revenue was affected by a customer's custom rack platform upgrade and some shipments pushed to Q2.
Q:Which segments contributed to Q1 revenues and how many customers achieved revenue of 10% or more?
A:The GS segment represented over 75% of Q1 revenues and was the key growth driver. During Q1, there were 2 customers that achieved revenue of 10% or more.
Q:What was the impact of geographic revenue distribution on Q1 results compared to the prior year and prior quarter?
A:The US revenues decreased 57% year over year and 16% quarter over quarter, while Asia grew 143% year over year and 1% quarter over quarter, and Europe increased 11% year over year and 16% quarter over quarter. The rest of the world increased 65% year over year and declined 48% quarter over quarter.
Q:What was the GAAP and non GAAP diluted EPS for Q1 and how did they compare to guidance?
A:The GAAP diluted EPS for Q1 was 26 cents compared to guidance of 30 cents to 42 cents, and non GAAP diluted EPS was 35 cents versus guidance of 40 cents to 52 cents.
Q:What was the impact of cash flow on operations in Q1 and the company's cash position?
A:Cash flow used in operations for Q1 was 918 million, and the company's closing cash position at the end of Q1 was 4.2 billion, with a net cash position of 575 million compared to 412 million in the prior quarter.
Q:What are the expectations for Q2 fiscal year 26 in terms of net sales, diluted net income per share, and gross margins?
A:The company expects net sales in the range of 10 billion to 11 billion, GAAP diluted net income per share of 37 cents to 45 cents, and non-GAAP diluted net income per share of 46 cents to 54 cents for Q2 fiscal year 2026. Gross margins are expected to be down 300 basis points relative to Q1 levels.
Q:What factors are considered in the revised guidance for Q2 and the impact on investment in customers and future growth?
A:The factors considered in the revised guidance for Q2 include customer and product mix with a strategic Q1 large design win, and greater investments in new customers to ensure success with AI engineering support and services. The investments are expected to lead to large global design wins and expand revenues in higher margin segments.
Q:What is the updated forecast for net sales and revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026?
A:The updated forecast for net sales is at least 36 billion, raised from prior guidance of at least 33 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Q:What are the expectations for revenue and staff ramp-up in the current quarter?
A:The company expects to have at least $10.5 billion in revenue and to ramp up staff in the current quarter.
Q:What is the projected impact of the new product line on the company's gross margins?
A:The new product line is expected to improve the company's profit margin ratio, which is much higher in the industry for data center infrastructure.
Q:Which components are contributing to the strong order outlook?
A:The strong order outlook is attributed to various components including GPUs, Nvidia blackwall as, AD2000, and RTX, among others.
Q:What is the company's strategy regarding the provision of data center solutions?
A:The company is providing data center end-to-end solutions including tcpp and management software, aiming for one-stop shopping for customers to save time and improve efficiency while growing profit margins.
Q:How should one think about gross margins and Opex in the upcoming year?
A:Gross margins are expected to improve over time as production and shipment ramp up, guided by the understanding that sub-5% Opex is historically maintained. The company plans to continue increasing Opex to strengthen infrastructure, leveraging new facilities and training staff, which should result in a more efficient resource utilization and growth in profitability.
Q:How will the company manage the increase in quarterly revenue from $5 to $6 billion to $10 billion?
A:To handle the increase in quarterly revenue from $5 to $6 billion to $10 billion, the company is expanding its facilities in Taiwan and Malaysia, hiring and training new staff, and leveraging these larger capacity facilities to service large customers globally. This is expected to make resources more efficient and grow profitability.
Q:What percentage of the $13 billion in orders are from new and existing customers?
A:The company had 210% customers that contributed to the $13 billion in orders, and while it welcomes new large customers, it usually does not discuss individual customer contributions.
Q:Is there conservatism in the revenue forecast for the December and June quarters?
A:There is no specific mention of conservatism in the revenue forecast for the December and June quarters. The company is excited about the growth, having expanded capacity, trained people, and prepared facilities. They anticipate at least $10 billion in revenue in December and continue to grow their total solution for data centers.
Q:What is the strategy for growing the tcpp solution?
A:The company is focusing on growing the tcpp solution as it is a unique data center tool that helps customers build data centers more quickly, efficiently, and cost-effectively. This is expected to improve the company's profitability.
Q:Can we expect the strengths in the business to continue through the calendar year?
A:Yes, we can expect the strength to continue through the balance of the calendar year as the company's capacity is in excess of the conservative 36 billion number, allowing for quick growth and continued market leadership.
Q:Is the December quarter the low watermark for gross margin for the fiscal year?
A:Yes, the December quarter is set as the low water mark for gross margin for the fiscal year due to it being a quarter of first impression with revenues doubling and the company not making forecasts beyond December.
Q:What is the total revenue capacity supported by the manufacturing footprint today and what would be the figure when fully utilized?
A:The total revenue capacity supported by the manufacturing footprint is not directly quantified in the transcript; however, it's mentioned that the company has a rack capacity of 6000 racks per month worldwide.
Q:How should we think about working capital, cash conversion cycle, and free cash flow in the next several quarters?
A:The company has maintained about $5 billion in average working capital and has put an accounts receivable sale program in place to manage the increase in revenue. Additional programs are being implemented to meet upcoming quarters' needs. The company will control revenue based on cash flow and may need to tap the market to raise more capital if the ramping of large projects continues.
Q:What is the rationale behind demonstrating Supermicro's engineering capabilities to X and other partners?
A:The rationale is to ensure the delivery of high-quality, reliable systems to customers, which is why the company invests a lot of time in its solution and builds up substantial capacity. The company aims to be selective in growing revenue based on cash flow, and X will continue to be an important long-term partner.
Q:What impact will the new facilities have on gross margin over time?
A:The new facilities in Malaysia, Taiwan, and the USA are expected to provide the necessary capacity to manufacture high-quality products optimally. The December quarter saw significant investment to establish the foundation for future growth, and these facilities will enable the company to scale much larger businesses, which should eventually positively impact gross margin.
Q:What led to the creation of the super micro federal program and how could it position the company for government contracts?
A:The creation of the super micro federal program was due to the company's design, manufacture, and service capabilities from Silicon Valley. The company now aims to support federal, state, and local government agencies by providing efficient and reliable products, which is why the federal program was officially initiated.
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