西部数据公司 (WDC.US) 2026财年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Western Digital highlights AI's role in fueling demand for data storage, showcases AI-enhanced productivity gains, and reports strong Q1 FY2026 financials, including increased revenue, margins, and dividends, with a strategic focus on high-capacity drives and technological advancements to meet growing data needs.
会议速览
The dialogue introduces Western Digital's Q1 FY2026 earnings call, highlighting the company's forward-looking statements, non-GAAP financial measures, and the risks associated with them. The CEO and CFO are expected to provide insights into the business plans, market trends, and financial performance.
AI's impact on data storage is driving Western Digital's innovation and product demand. The company leverages AI internally for productivity gains and supports hyperscaler needs with high-capacity drives. Investments in technology and facilities ensure scalable, cost-effective storage solutions, accelerating time-to-market and enhancing customer value.
The company highlights significant purchase orders from top customers, progress in Hammer technology development, and financial achievements, including increased share repurchases and a 25% dividend hike, emphasizing opportunities in AI and cloud storage growth.
Western Digital reported strong Q1 FY26 financials, exceeding guidance with 27% YoY revenue growth and robust free cash flow. The company anticipates continued growth, driven by AI and data-driven trends, with Q2 FY26 revenue forecasted to grow 20% YoY. Western Digital is committed to creating long-term shareholder value through efficient innovation and fiscal discipline.
A discussion on meeting increasing customer demand through higher capacity drive production, innovation in SMR technology, enhancing manufacturing efficiency with automation, and accelerating qualification processes, all while maintaining a focus on aerial density improvements and avoiding additional unit capacity. Highlights the company's commitment to delivering exabytes at scale and supporting AI workloads with SSD adoption.
The dialogue discusses the company's impressive gross margin performance, with a 660 basis point increase year-over-year and 260 basis points sequentially, achieving 43.9% in Q1. It highlights an incremental gross margin of approximately 75% sequentially and forecasts further improvements to 44%-45% in Q2, suggesting continued focus on enhancing margins for future growth.
Discussed advancements in Hammer's qualification process, moved up by half a year, with initial capacity points set at 28 TB CMR and 36 TB SMR. Highlighted potential for further capacity expansion due to innovative engineering, aiming to meet customer expectations for reliability and yield comparable to EPM portfolio. Goal is to expand customer base by the end of the year, showcasing progress in density improvements and scalable product development.
A discussion on the evolving nature of seasonality in business operations and the upward trend of exabyte growth rates, driven by AI and long-term customer agreements, amidst a supply-constrained market with potential for expansion in the second half of calendar 7.
The dialogue covers the timeline from product qualification to deployment, highlighting a 200-300 quarter target. It discusses the application of AI in manufacturing and firmware development, noting productivity gains. Lastly, it addresses the consistent mix of high-capacity storage drives despite increasing shipments.
Discusses the effect of a September price increase on non-LTA volumes, emphasizing channel customers and lower-end drives. Also covers plans to monetize remaining Sandisk shares before February 21, considering debt repayment, investments, or share buybacks.
The dialogue explores the structure and protections within long-term agreements, particularly firm purchase orders, in the tech sector, emphasizing commercial safeguards against forecast adjustments.
A discussion unfolds on the nuanced impact of AI spending on business, moving beyond a direct correlation. While major AI investments focus on GPUs, HBM, and power, there's a noted shift in CapEx allocation towards HDDs, increasing from low single digits to around 5%. This trend highlights a more complex view of AI's financial implications.
The dialogue discusses trends in exabyte demand growth, the transition to higher capacity Ultra SMR drives, and the impact of AI infrastructure investment on storage solutions, emphasizing close customer partnerships and technology advancements.
The dialogue explores the factors behind exceeding revenue expectations, attributing the success to enhanced manufacturing operations, improved yields and throughput, favorable pricing trends, a shift towards higher capacity drives, and effective cost management across the supply chain.
The team has been successfully executing productivity initiatives, resulting in cost per terabyte reductions through higher capacity drives, yield improvements, and operational efficiencies. These efforts have led to mid to high single-digit cost declines, which are expected to continue in the outer quarters despite ramping up calls.
Discusses the impact of tax adjustments on free cash flow, highlights Q1 fiscal 26's working capital reduction, and forecasts maintaining a free cash flow margin above 20% going forward.
The dialogue highlights a collaborative effort between customers and a development team, driven by the need for higher capacity drives to meet exabyte demand. This partnership benefits both parties, improving total cost of ownership (TCO) and supporting growth in cloud and AI sectors. The conversation underscores the importance of aligning customer needs with technological advancements for mutual success.
Discusses the challenge of maintaining financial discipline in capacity expansion while avoiding customer shift to SSDs, impacting long-term pricing and market dynamics.
The dialogue discusses the impact of AI on data storage, emphasizing the enduring role of HDDs in data center architectures due to their TCO benefits and reliability. While SSDs are favored for specific use cases, the tiered storage model between SSDs, HDDs, and tape is expected to remain stable, with HDDs continuing to dominate around 80% of stored bits. Quarter-to-quarter variations may occur due to supply-demand dynamics, but the overall trend of increased data storage on HDDs is anticipated to persist.
A discussion confirms full risk mitigation post-acquisition, with Hammer's development on Canon's separate nelva system, ensuring operational integrity and progress.
The session concluded with an appreciation for employees and partners, highlighting ongoing strategy execution and upcoming innovations. Western Digital is committed to creating long-term shareholder value, showcasing progress and dedication to customer, shareholder, and employee benefits. The call ended with thanks and good wishes for the day.
要点回答
Q:What are the key trends and demands in the industry related to AI?
A:The key trends and demands related to AI include its expansion across industries, reshaping of business models, ushering in a new wave of digital transformation marked by higher productivity and richer user experiences, and a robust ongoing demand for data infrastructure to support the growth fueled by AI.
Q:What role is Western Digital playing in the AI-driven economy?
A:Western Digital is playing a vital role in the AI-driven economy by providing reliable, scalable, and cost-effective data storage solutions. The company's hard disk drives (HDDs) are crucial in storing the increasing zettabytes of data created by the AI-driven economy.
Q:How is AI transforming various industries, and can you give an example?
A:AI is transforming various industries by being a prolific creator and consumer of data, reshaping data generation, scale, and magnetization. An example given is one of the world's leading medical institutions using an AI workflow that analyzes over 7 billion images from 14 million patient records to improve diagnostics and patient outcomes, generating massive volumes of new data stored at Western Digital.
Q:How is AI being utilized internally by Western Digital to enhance productivity and innovation?
A:AI is being utilized internally by Western Digital to modernize firmware, deliver new features to customers more quickly and cost-effectively, improve yield, detect defect patterns through intelligent diagnostics, optimize test processes, uplevel technician capabilities, streamline workflows, and make the organization more efficient.
Q:What product and technology advancements is Western Digital making to meet the growing demand for data storage?
A:Western Digital is making advancements such as growing shipments of EPM R products with up to 26 TB CMR and 32 TB ultra SMR capacities, investing in head, wafer, and media technology, increasing manufacturing throughput with AI tools, and inaugurating a state-of-the-art facility for product integration and testing. They are also on track to start Hammer qualification for a hyperscale customer in the first half of 2026 and plan to expand the qualification process to up to 3 hyperscale customers through 2026. Next generation EPM R drives are set for qualification in the first quarter of 2026.
Q:What customer commitments and agreements have been made by Western Digital for future product demand?
A:Western Digital has received purchase orders from its top customers extending throughout the first half of calendar year 2026, with five of them covering all of 2026. One of the largest hyperscale customers has even signed an agreement for 2027. These commitments indicate customers' strong confidence in Western Digital's product road map, including the transition to Hammer technology.
Q:What other investments is Western Digital making in its business besides AI and data storage?
A:Besides AI and data storage, Western Digital is investing in its platforms business, which benefits from the growth of on-prem and cloud storage, including AI and social media applications. The company continues to invest in this business as opportunities arise and plans to scale up accordingly.
Q:How does Western Digital plan to continue innovating and developing new technologies?
A:Western Digital plans to expand its proven EPMR roadmap, bring new technologies like Hammer to the market, and focus on improving data throughput, speed, bandwidth of drives, and power efficiency. Major progress is being made on these fronts, and the company will keep stakeholders updated on any new developments.
Q:How has Western Digital's capital allocation strategy been adjusted following its first quarter performance?
A:Following its first quarter performance, Western Digital has significantly increased its share repurchases and announced a 25% increase in its dividend per share to 12.5 cents per share. Chris will provide further details on capital allocation later in the discussion.
Q:What are the expectations for the fiscal second quarter of 2026?
A:For the fiscal second quarter of 2026, it is expected that revenue growth will continue to be driven by data center demand and profitability will be improved by the adoption of higher capacity drives.
Q:What factors contributed to the improved gross margin in the fiscal first quarter?
A:The improved gross margin in the fiscal first quarter was attributed to a continued shift in product mix towards higher capacity drives and tight cost control across manufacturing sites and the supply chain.
Q:How did Western Digital's revenue and earnings per share perform in the fiscal first quarter of 2026?
A:In the fiscal first quarter of 2026, Western Digital's revenue was $2.8 billion, up 27% year over year, with earnings per share at $1.78, both figures being above the high end of the guidance range.
Q:How did operating expenses and other financials perform in the fiscal first quarter?
A:Operating expenses in the fiscal first quarter were $381 million, slightly exceeding guidance due to higher variable compensation on stronger-than-expected results. Interest and other expenses were $44 million, the effective tax rate was 17%, and diluted earnings per share was $1.78. The company also returned $785 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments.
Q:What is the outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2026?
A:The outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 includes revenue of $2.9 billion plus or minus $100 million at the midpoint, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 20%. Gross margin is expected between 44% and 45%, with operating expenses projected to decrease to a range of $365 million to $375 million. Interest and other expenses are anticipated to be approximately $50 million, the tax rate around 17%, and diluted earnings per share expected to be $1.88 plus or minus $0.15.
Q:How does Western Digital plan to meet rising customer demand for storage while managing supply and demand imbalances?
A:Western Digital plans to meet rising customer demand by focusing on the continued delivery of higher capacity drives. A good example is the PMR product, which shipped over 2.2 million units in the last quarter, equating to approximately 70 exabytes. The company also plans to utilize its unique innovation around Ultra SMR technology, with a balance between CMR and Ultra SMR capacity. Additionally, the upcoming launch of the next generation EPM R Drive, which starts qualification in Q2 of calendar 2026 and is expected to go into ramp in the second half of calendar 2026, will further aid in providing higher capacity drives to customers.
Q:How much has the average capacity for the company's top personal care customers increased year over year?
A:The average capacity for the company's top personal care customers has increased 21% year over year.
Q:What is the projected improvement in gross margins for the upcoming quarter?
A:The projected improvement in gross margins for the upcoming quarter (Q2 fiscal 26) is a range of 44% to 45%, which at the midpoint gives an improvement of approximately 65% on a sequential basis compared to Q1.
Q:What is the new timeline for the qualification process of the next generation E PMR product?
A:The qualification process of the next generation E PMR product has been pulled in to the first quarter of calendar 2026, which is six months ahead of the previously announced timeline.
Q:How does the company plan to ensure product reliability and yields meet customer expectations?
A:The company is focusing on ensuring that the product has the right reliability and yields that are similar in capacity and capability to their existing EPM portfolio, which meets customer expectations.
Q:Is there any seasonality in the company's business, and how should it be considered, especially for the March quarter?
A:The business has structurally changed with a focus on the data center, removing traditional seasonality. However, there is a small channel business that may exhibit some seasonality, but overall, the company does not anticipate significant seasonality moving forward.
Q:What are the updated thoughts on the growth rates and cost deflation for exabyte metrics?
A:The company's base case is for 15% growth, with an AI uplift case of 23%. They are seeing an exabyte growth trend more towards the 23% range, especially in longer-term agreements. On the cost side, a mid to high single-digit cost down is considered a safer estimate.
Q:How constrained is the supply relative to demand, and when might supply more materially expand?
A:For the remainder of 2026, the supply demand balance will continue to be very supply constrained. With the ramp up of new capabilities, it is expected that more exabytes will come on stream in the second half of 2026.
Q:How long does it typically take for a product to go from qualification to deployment, and how does Hammer's timeline compare?
A:Typically, it takes from start of qualification to completion of a product in the range of 200 to 300 quarters. Hammer's timeline for qualification to ramp in the first half of 2027 is on track with this expectation.
Q:What is the projected timeline for Hammer's qualification and ramp, and what is the focus during this period?
A:The projected timeline for Hammer's qualification is in the second half of 2026, with ramp expected in the first half of 2027. The focus is on ensuring product reliability for customers, avoiding production level challenges.
Q:What are the anticipated productivity savings from AI implementation, and how does it affect Opex costs?
A:AI initiatives are expected to yield productivity gains of about 10% in manufacturing operations and around 20% in rewriting firmware. The company anticipates maintaining Opex in the 373 to 375 million range as revenues grow.
Q:What is the mix of the 2.2 million EPDM drives shipped in the quarter, and is it expected to change in the future?
A:The 2.2 million EPDM drives shipped in the quarter equaled roughly 70 exabytes. The company plans to ship over 3 million units with a similar customer profile, indicating a consistent mix without significant changes.
Q:How is the price increase communicated to customers, and which customer segments does it affect?
A:The price increase was communicated through a letter to channel customers, affecting the client and consumer portfolio and lower end of nearline capacity drives. Long-term agreements with hyperscale customers were not affected.
Q:What are the plans regarding the remaining stake in Sandisk, and what might be the impact on cash flow?
A:The intention is to monetize the remaining 7.5 million shares in Sandisk before February 21, 2026. A previous monetization was done via debt for equity, and a similar transaction might occur.
Q:How are the long-term agreements structured, and what protection do they offer against forecast adjustments?
A:The long-term agreements are not long-term agreements (LTAs), but firm purchase orders (POs) with significant commercial teeth. For one large hyperscale customer, the agreement covers the entire year with commercial terms that protect against forecast adjustments.
Q:What is the updated view on AI spend and its impact on business benefits compared to traditional CapEx for AI?
A:There is a nuanced view on AI spend. While traditionally a small portion of CapEx, the percentage of CapEx on hard drives (HDDs) has been trending towards the single digits to around the 5% range, indicating a more significant role for HDDs in AI spend.
Q:What is the projected demand for AI infrastructure and how does it compare with the current projections?
A:The projected demand for AI infrastructure is trending towards a 23% growth rate, which is higher than the previous mid-teens growth rate projection. The company is working with customers to ensure they can support this growth through density improvements.
Q:What is the forecasted mix of SMR (Shingled Magnetic Recording) into 2026 and why is this significant?
A:The forecasted mix of SMR into 2026 is an increase as existing customers expand their ultra SMR footprint and new customers are undergoing qualification processes. This is significant because it contributes to the overall growth of the portfolio and reflects a strategic shift towards higher capacity drives.
Q:What factors contributed to the revenue and gross margin upside in the recent quarter?
A:The revenue and gross margin upside in the recent quarter were driven by strong execution on the supply side, which included improved yields and throughput. On the gross margin side, the factors included a favorable pricing environment and the shift to higher capacity drives, leading to a more robust gross margin profile.
Q:How should one expect productivity initiatives to affect cost declines in future quarters?
A:The company has been successful in executing cost reductions through moving to higher capacity drives, productivity yield improvements, test time reductions, and operational efficiencies. These ongoing efforts are expected to continue delivering mid to high single digits cost per terabyte reductions.
Q:What is the rationale behind the strong free cash flow margin and how sustainable is it?
A:The strong free cash flow margin is attributed to great execution across operations, linearity in billings, and effective management of working capital. While achieving the same significant reduction in working capital each quarter is challenging, the goal is to maintain the current level without expecting the same incremental benefits seen in Q1 of fiscal 26.
Q:What is the dynamic between customer demand for higher capacity drives and internal product development?
A:The dynamic is a win-win situation where both the customer and the company benefit from higher capacity drives. The customers' need for higher capacity drives to meet exabyte demand also aligns with the company's growth trajectory in cloud and AI, prompting both parties to work closely on product development.
Q:How does the company balance the risk of pushing customers towards SSDs with the industry's need for additional net capacity?
A:The company balances this risk by recognizing that while AI is generating more data, the demand for both SSDs and HDDs is increasing. The specific use cases drive the choice between technologies, and the fundamental architecture of data centers is not expected to change, keeping HDDs roughly at 80% of the bits stored. The company does not anticipate a major shift away from this balance.
Q:Has Western Digital fully aggregated the risk from its purchase of NVA, and how is it being addressed?
A:Yes, Western Digital has fully mitigated the risks associated with the purchase of NVA. The company's P-Hammer development is being done on a separate system called NELVA provided by Canon, ensuring the risks are managed effectively.

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