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惠而浦 (WHR.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Whirlpool Corporation's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted organic growth from new product launches, particularly in North America, despite tariff impacts and a competitive promotional environment. The company announced a $300 million investment in U.S. laundry facilities and revised its 2025 guidance to reflect a narrower EPS range, with expectations of long-term benefits from tariffs and a recovering housing market. Whirlpool also emphasized its strategy to leverage domestic production advantages and manage debt, aiming for a favorable financial position and market share gains.
会议速览
Whirlpool's Q3 Earnings: Organic Growth Amid Tariff Challenges and New Product Success
The earnings call discusses Q3 results highlighting organic growth driven by KitchenAid's success and new product launches, despite tariff impacts reducing margins. Tariffs are seen as a temporary setback supporting domestic producers, with confidence in North American business evidenced by a $300M investment in US laundry facilities.
Q3 Financials, Growth Strategies, and Product Launches in MDA North America
The dialogue covered third-quarter financial performance, highlighting 100 basis points of revenue growth and ongoing EBIT margins of 4.5%, despite tariffs and promotional pressures. New product launches in MDA North America, including Whirlpool and KitchenAid refrigerators, a high-tech dishwasher, and an innovative laundry system, were emphasized as key growth drivers, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation and market expansion.
Q3 Financial Review: Declines in MBA Latin America and Asia Segments
MBA Latin America and Asia faced net sales declines of 6% and 4% year over year, respectively, excluding currency impacts. Volume declines, compounded by challenging environments, led to reduced EBIT margins of 5.7% and 2%.
SDA Global's Q4 2025 Results & Revised Guidance Amid Import Headwinds
Discusses SDA Global's 10% net sales growth, EBIT margin of 16.5%, and new product launches. Highlights walnut wood accents, stand mixer sweepstakes, and updates on 2025 guidance with narrowed EPS, unchanged net sales, and revised EBIT margins due to preloaded Asian imports and tariff impacts.
Financial Guidance Update: Free Cash Flow, Capital Allocation, and Whirlpool India Transaction
The dialogue outlines updates on free cash flow guidance, reflecting tariff impacts and prioritizing capital investments. It emphasizes capital allocation towards innovation, debt reduction, and shareholder dividends. Additionally, progress on the Whirlpool India transaction is highlighted, aiming for ownership reduction and debt payoff.
Whirlpool's Strategic Growth Amid Tariffs and Housing Market Recovery
Whirlpool anticipates growth from a robust North American product portfolio, advantageous manufacturing footprint under new trade policies, and a recovering US housing market. The company introduces a $1 billion KitchenAid redesign, emphasizing personalization, and expects tariffs to eventually benefit its domestic production advantage over competitors.
Company's Growth Catalysts: Product Launch Success, Domestic Manufacturing Investment, and Housing Market Readiness
The company highlights early success of new products with a 30% increase in flooring sales, announces a $300M investment in US laundry factories, and emphasizes strong positioning for housing market recovery. Achieved organic revenue growth, with SDA global business and North American market share gains noted, and plans for continued cost takeout initiatives.
Analysis of Share Gains and SDA Business Momentum Amid New Product Launches and Tariff Impacts
Discussed factors driving share gains, emphasizing new product launches over promotions, highlighted KitchenAid's record market share, and analyzed SDA business strength influenced by new products, D2C growth, and tariff impacts, projecting positive momentum for the future.
Optimism on North American Organic Growth Despite Flooring Costs
A discussion highlighted significant strides in retail flooring and product launches, projecting strong organic growth opportunities in North America for 2026, despite ongoing costs associated with flooring. The speaker expressed confidence in the momentum and potential sell-out success of new products, particularly noting the encouraging 30% of new products achieving flooring compared to a typical 10% annually.
Tariffs and Competitive Advantage in North American Sales
The dialogue discusses the impact of tariffs on costs, expecting a significant unrecovered expense for 2025, with potential recovery in 2026. It highlights a competitive advantage in North America due to lower tariffs compared to competitors, leading to volume growth and margin appreciation.
Analyzing Post-Covid Promotional Environment's Impact on Industry Volumes and Costs
Discusses how post-Covid factors, including tariffs and inventory overhang, have intensified the promotional environment, affecting industry volumes and costs. Anticipates normalization by Q4 2024, with significant cost increases expected in 2026 due to tariffs.
Strategic Debt Management and Liquidity Planning for Future Financial Stability
The dialogue discusses the company's strategy to manage its debt, emphasizing the intention to maintain a net debt to EBITDA ratio of two times. Despite delays in debt paydown, the company is optimistic about its liquidity position, thanks to the refinancing of a term loan and the anticipated proceeds from an India transaction. The overarching strategy remains focused on reducing debt levels, with confidence in completing these actions in the near future.
Analyzing Free Cash Flow Dynamics Amid Tariff Increases and Dividend Strategy
Discusses free cash flow dynamics, impacts of tariff increases, and dividend strategy implications for financial planning and deleveraging.
Analysis of Free Cash Flow, Working Capital, and Q4 Revenue Growth
Discusses factors influencing free cash flow, including working capital adjustments, tariff impacts, and promotional payment timing. Highlights Q4 revenue growth driven by successful product launches and SDA momentum, despite a competitive environment and soft macroeconomic conditions.
Post-Product Launch Demand Trends and Retail Adaptation
Discusses historical trends showing stronger demand the year after elevated product introductions, attributing this to retailers' adaptation and consumer familiarity. Highlights cost implications of launches and anticipates a multiplier effect from housing market recovery, particularly benefiting discretionary and premium segments.
Investment in U.S. Laundry Manufacturing: Capital Expansion Driven by Future Promise and Tariff Advantages
A $300 million investment in Ohio's laundry manufacturing facilities was decided due to high demand, capacity constraints, and promising future returns, particularly boosted by tariffs enhancing investment attractiveness. This strategic move is aimed at capitalizing on a strong market outlook and improving operational efficiency for long-term gains.
Discussion on Future Corporate Tax Rate Normalization
Speakers discuss the expected normalization of the corporate tax rate, referencing past tax benefits and predicting a return to a 20% to 25% range, with detailed updates promised in January.
Steel Cost Predictions and Raw Materials Outlook for Next Year
A discussion on the company's stable steel cost advantage due to multi-year contracts, with a predictable base for US-made steel. The speaker anticipates no major surprises in raw materials, including copper trends, suggesting a normalized environment for the following year. While acknowledging higher costs compared to Chinese steel, the company expects a slight discount below market rates, maintaining a positive outlook on cost stability.
Navigating Tariffs and Cash Flow Adjustments in a Dynamic Trade Environment
Discussed significant changes in cash flow due to evolving tariffs, emphasizing improved visibility and stability in certain tariff areas. Highlighted the impact of new product launches and inventory adjustments on working capital, while expressing optimism about resolving uncertainties in trade negotiations.
Strategies for Enhancing MDA Margins in North America Amidst Tariffs and Housing Cycles
Discussed North America's MDA margin recovery strategies, highlighting cost control, product innovation, and anticipation of favorable tariff and housing cycles, aiming for over 10% EBIT margins.
Analysis of Retail Sell-Through Trends and Impact of Preloaded Imports on Revenue Growth
Discussion on retail sell-through rates showing low single-digit growth, attributed to replacement market dynamics. Also, clarification on preloaded imports not crowding out volume, but facilitating revenue growth through strategic product launches and promotional restraint, anticipating normalization post-inventory overhang.
Tariff Impact, Promotional Environment, and Growth Strategies in North America
The dialogue discusses the unmitigated and mitigated impacts of tariffs, noting higher-than-anticipated promotional intensity due to preloaded inventory. Despite current margin challenges, the company is confident in its North American growth, particularly in new products and small domestic sectors. They emphasize the temporary nature of margin issues and focus on internal growth and cost levers, expecting positive macrocycle turns. A summary of their strategic outlook and upcoming financial updates concludes the discussion.
要点回答
Q:What are the two sources of growth in Whirlpool's business?
A:The two sources of growth in Whirlpool's business were the KitchenAid domestic appliance business, which achieved double-digit revenue growth, and market share gains in the North American major appliance business due to new product launches.
Q:Why are operating margins in North America below expectations?
A:Operating margins in North America are below expectations due to tariffs, which are one of the three catalysts for value creation and margin improvement. Tariffs ramped up during Q3, causing extensive pre-loading of inventories ahead of them, which impacted margins more than anticipated.
Q:What are the effects of tariffs on Whirlpool's results?
A:Tariffs have caused inventories to be preloaded in anticipation of higher costs, which has impacted margins and created a highly promotional environment. Despite the temporary impact, the fundamental perspective on tariffs remains the same, and the company believes it is close to a turning point with deceleration in imports and 17 consecutive weeks of declining container rates.
Q:How is the US manufacturing footprint viewed as a competitive advantage?
A:Whirlpool views its US manufacturing footprint as a competitive advantage because it is the domestic producer with more than 80% of its sales in the US, while its competitors are largely importers. Tariffs support the domestic producer and, combined with the company's investments, such as the recent $300 million in laundry facilities, demonstrate confidence in its North American business.
Q:What is the impact of price mix and cost takeout actions on ongoing EBIT margins?
A:Price mix favorably impacted margins by 50 basis points, supported by the cumulative effect of new product launches and benefits from previously announced pricing actions. Cost takeout actions, which are in line with expectations, resulted in margin expansion of 100 basis points year over year due to manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies.
Q:What are the results of the MDA North America business?
A:The MDA North America business achieved revenue growth both sequentially and year over year, driven by new product introductions and share gains. Despite continued pre-loading of Asian-produced products by competitors and a promotional environment, the company is seeing signs that import volumes are likely decelerating.
Q:How does the new product lineup support growth in MDA North America?
A:The new product lineup supports growth in MDA North America with products such as Whirlpool and KitchenAid French door refrigerators, true counter-depth sizes, a new dishwasher with innovative features, and a top load laundry with refreshed aesthetics and performance capabilities.
Q:What is the performance of the MDA Latin America and MDA Asia businesses?
A:The MDA Latin America business experienced a net sales decline of 6% year over year, driven by volume decline and the challenging business environment in Argentina. The MDA Asia business saw a net sales decline of 4% year over year, also due to volume decline.
Q:How is the SDA global business performing?
A:The SDA global business achieved double-digit net sales growth of 10% year over year, driven by new product launches. The segment continued to deliver a very strong EBIT margin of 16.5%, with favorable price mix and a strong direct to consumer business contributing to margin expansion.
Q:What is the updated guidance for 2025 and what does it reflect?
A:The updated guidance for 2025 reflects the impact of near-record levels of preloaded Asian imports on financial results. The net sales guidance remains at $15.8 billion, with an expected full year ongoing EBIT margin of approximately 5%. The full year ongoing earnings per share is narrowed to approximately $7, supported by an improved adjusted effective tax rate. The free cash flow guidance is updated to approximately $200 million.
Q:What adjustments have been made to the EBIT margin expectations for North America and Latin America, and what are the reasons for these changes?
A:The EBIT margin in North America has been adjusted to reflect lower than expected price mix due to competitor preloading. The full year MDA North America margin is now expected to be 5% to 5.5%. In MDA Latin America, the EBIT margin is expected to be approximately 6%, up from prior guidance of 5%, primarily due to unfavorable currency impacts and continued macro volatility in Argentina. In MDA Asia and SDA global, EBIT margins are unchanged at approximately 5% and 15.5%, respectively.
Q:What are the updated free cash flow expectations, and what factors are influencing these changes?
A:The free cash flow guidance has been updated to reflect the impact of tariff costs, with a new expectation of approximately $200 million for the year. This includes updated cash earnings and other operating items consistent with full year EBIT guidance. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $400 million, and there is an expectation to build $100 million of working capital primarily driven by incremental tariff costs in inventory. The timing of tariff payments is negatively impacting working capital, and restructuring costs due to previously announced organizational actions remain unchanged at approximately $50 million.
Q:What are the fundamental components that drive growth for the North America MBA business?
A:The three fundamental components that drive growth for the North America MBA business are: 1) the strengthening of the product portfolio with over 30% of North American products transitioning to new products in 2025, 2) a strong U.S. based manufacturing footprint providing a competitive advantage on new tariff and trade policies, and 3) strong underlying fundamentals in the U.S. housing market, which is significantly undersupplied and has an aging housing stock with a median age of 40 years. Elevated mortgage rates are expected to create pent-up demand that will be unlocked once interest rates ease.
Q:What recent successes have been achieved in the new product launches and market share in North America?
A:Recent successes include a 30% increase in flooring compared to the prior year and positive reactions from trade customers for the new products launched this year. The company has also announced a $300 million investment in laundry factories to add capacity and fuel the innovation pipeline. In addition, market share gains in North American major appliances are seen as just the beginning, and the company is encouraged by the success of new products. Housing market fundamentals are expected to improve with further mortgage rate reductions, supporting the company's position in the market.
Q:What is the company's outlook for the SDA business and how is it performing in the current market conditions?
A:The SDA business is performing well and is a bright spot, with new products and a successful DTC strategy driving sustained growth and margin expansion throughout 2025. Market share gains in North American major appliances are seen as an encouraging start, and the company is optimistic about the future performance of the SDA business, despite consumer volatility, due to its momentum and the discretionary nature of the small domestic appliance market, which is less driven by housing than major appliances.
Q:What are the three factors that have contributed to the company's success?
A:The three factors contributing to the company's success are the new product launches and the products in the pipeline, the significant advertising investments to support these new products, and the continued strong performance of the DTC business which becomes more profitable with increased volume.
Q:How did tariffs affect the SDA market and what is their expected impact on future business?
A:Tariffs impacted the SDA market by driving industry changes and behaviors due to the earlier effect of China tariffs compared to the rest of Asia. This has led to a market environment where tariffs have already made their way into the marketplace and are expected to affect future business.
Q:What is the expected unit growth for 2026 and how does it relate to product launches?
A:While a precise figure for 2026 unit growth was not provided, the company has replaced about one-third of the SKUs in North America and nearly all of the products planned for 2025 have been launched. The company has gained more floors than usual with new products, suggesting an encouraging start for new product contributions to growth.
Q:What is the company's outlook on organic growth and product launches?
A:The company is optimistic about organic growth opportunities in North America, irrespective of market conditions, with a focus on the momentum gained from product launches and the reduction in flooring costs which will be beneficial in the future.
Q:What are the expectations for upfront flooring costs and how will they affect Q3 margins?
A:The company expects that the upfront flooring costs, particularly those related to product launches, will not immediately reflect in Q3 margins but believes there is a good tailwind coming from product launches.
Q:How much of the expected unrecovered 2025 tariff expense is anticipated to be recovered in 2026?
A:The company anticipates that the gross tariffs paid this year will be in the ballpark of 300 to 350 million, and these costs are expected to be similar or higher next year. The net component of tariffs is expected to provide a relative competitive advantage, with volume growth and margin appreciation anticipated in North America.
Q:How does the current promotional environment compare to pre-Covid norms and what metrics can be used to gauge normalization?
A:The current promotional environment is more intense compared to pre-Covid norms, with rapid changes and volatility due to unforeseen events like tariffs and pre-relocation. The comparison to normalcy is complicated, but industry shipments will return to a more normal pattern as they reflect underlying costs and not just the elevated imports from the past. Normalization will be aided by a reduction in industry volumes and excess inventory by the end of Q4.
Q:What is the expected impact of tariffs on industry costs and future predictions?
A:Tariffs are expected to cause unprecedented cost increases for many industry participants, with significant impacts to be felt in the future. The company acknowledges the fluid environment and is preparing for the effects of tariffs on costs and supply chain adjustments.
Q:How will the company manage its revolver and financing needs over the next couple of years?
A:The company's long-term goal is to achieve a net debt to EBITDA ratio of two times. They have delayed a 700 million debt paydown and are considering how to manage revolver and financing needs as certain elements come due. However, specific details on additional debt paydown or refinancing were not provided in the transcript.
Q:What are the updates on the company's term loan refinance and the India transaction?
A:The company was able to refinance $100 million of the term loan at the beginning of the year, which sets them up well. The India transaction, however, has been delayed into 2026 from a closing perspective but they are still optimistic about the proceeds and using them to pay down debt.
Q:What is the company's current position regarding capital allocation and debt?
A:The company is in a good position regarding capital allocation and debt, with no change in strategy or intention to continue paying down debt despite the timing delays in the India transaction.
Q:What factors contributed to the free cash flow for the remainder of the year?
A:The factors contributing to the free cash flow for the remainder of the year include a higher level of working capital due to new product launches and inventory built to position the company, typical receivables levels before year-end, and lower promotional payments as the year ends.
Q:How is the company managing free cash flow and dividend payouts?
A:Free cash flow guidance has been reduced but still implies a meaningful ramp in the fourth quarter. The focus is on managing working capital, which is expected to provide a significant benefit in the back half of the year. The company plans to return to a more normalized level and an earnings-driven free cash flow profile next year. Regarding dividends, while the free cash flow matches the dividend level this year, it's expected to be higher next year with the absence of the one-time impact of tariffs.
Q:What is the reason for the healthy step up in year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter?
A:The healthy step up in year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter is attributed to organic growth, with specific emphasis on the contribution from SDA and major North American product launches, which are providing full revenue benefits in Q4 due to their positive market reception.
Q:How has the company historically seen the impact of new product introductions on future sales?
A:Historically, the company has seen that the best year for product launches is often the following year. This is due to the phase-in and phase-out costs associated with new products and the ramp-up in production, which impacts margins. However, after a full year of product availability, sales are bolstered by brand and marketing investments and a year of in-store displays, leading to stronger sales. Additionally, the company anticipates a 'multiplier effect' from the KitchenAid product as the housing market recovers.
Q:What factors influenced the decision to invest $300 million in new capacity for the laundry manufacturing facilities?
A:The decision to invest $300 million in new capacity was influenced by the success of the laundry business, specifically the top loader product, which is nearing capacity. Investments in manufacturing US-made products are viewed as particularly attractive due to the tariffs, which make the return on investment more attractive.
Q:What is the projected tax rate normalization, and when will it be updated?
A:The projected tax rate normalization is expected to be in the 20% to 25% range, and it will be updated at year-end after evaluating the environment and recent changes.
Q:What is the expected tax rate next year, and what influences it?
A:The expected tax rate next year is likely to be more normalized, moving away from the big tax bill change of the past year, influenced by the absence of a similar tax bill change expected next year.
Q:What is the current cost advantage due to scale costs compared to peers, and how will it affect next year's costs?
A:The exact cost advantage due to scale costs is not detailed, but it's mentioned that costs have been locked in for next year while peers have not, and this will affect next year's costs, especially in steel costs which are predictable due to long-term contracts.
Q:How do current steel contract terms compare to past practices, and what impact do they have on cost predictability?
A:Current steel contract terms have transitioned from one-year contracts to multi-year ones, providing a more predictable and stable steel cost base, with 96% of the steel purchased for U.S. products being U.S.-made.
Q:What is the current and expected steel cost relative to the market and China steel prices?
A:The current steel cost is within the expected range and slightly below the market, while the expected steel cost for next year is also well within that range, although it's still significantly higher than China steel prices, approximately 2.5 times as much.
Q:What is the company's visibility regarding future raw materials cost and potential surprises?
A:The company does not expect major negative or positive surprises on raw materials next year and anticipates a normalized raw materials environment, despite acknowledging the complexities and fluctuations in copper trends and other elements.
Q:What caused the significant change in cash flow, and how is the company dealing with the tariffs?
A:The significant change in cash flow is attributed to the evolving tariff environment, which has made the process more complex but the company now has a good understanding of it. The company has updated its numbers to reflect these new conditions and is managing the increased costs reflected in working capital.
Q:How will the inventory levels and new product introductions affect cash flow and margins?
A:New product introductions and higher inventory levels due to significant product variation have impacted cash flow and margins, but as the inventory is stocked with retailers, the company expects the additional inventory to normalize and contribute positively to sales and margins.
Q:What is the outlook for tariffs and the impact on the company's financials?
A:The outlook for tariffs is more stable with the 232 tariffs being in place since 2018 and considered stable. The company does not expect any major surprises, and while there is some uncertainty with the China negotiations, the company anticipates a more stable and predictable environment moving forward.
Q:What is the estimated margin impact of the tariffs and cost recovery?
A:The company is focused on cost opportunities and margin recovery, with an expectation to deliver more than 10% EBIT margins. The margins are not where the company wants them to be, and while they anticipate improvements, they also recognize the need for the housing cycle to be robust to reach their long-term potential.
Q:How is retail sell-through and pricing performing, and what is the expected trend for the fourth quarter?
A:Retail sell-through data for the appliances is very close to overall market demand and is showing a year-to-date growth of about +1% with actual sell-through in low single digits. This is expected to continue through the third quarter with the fourth quarter showing an anticipated trend of positive retail sell-through.
Q:What is the effect of preloaded imports on revenue growth and promotional strategies?
A:Preloaded imports have not negatively impacted revenue growth, as volume growth was achieved through new product introductions and maintained promotional spending. The promotional environment has been higher than anticipated throughout the year, but the company expects a normalization as inventory overhang is reduced.
Q:What is the plan for mitigating the impact of tariffs, and how will it affect next year?
A:The plan for mitigating the impact of tariffs involves managing the promotional environment and waiting for the inventory overhang to diminish, which is expected to lead to a normalization of the promotional environment and a reduction in the intensity of promotions starting next year.
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