波音公司 (BA.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Boeing reports $23 billion in cash, $53.4 billion debt, and a $600 billion backlog, maintaining investment-grade ratings. Despite a $4.9 billion 777X charge, the company ramps up 737 and 787 production, focusing on balance sheet health, cash management, and sustainable recovery. Defense and services sectors perform strongly, with new CFO Jay Molavi optimistic about sustained improvements and growth opportunities.
会议速览
Boeing emphasizes its commitment to safety and quality, driving improved performance and stakeholder trust. The company reports robust commercial aircraft deliveries, a strong defense business, and thriving service operations, welcoming new CFO Jay to the team.
Boeing highlights positive free cash flow, increased 737 production, and FAA delegation authority. Discusses delays in 777X certification, 787 stability, and 737 MAX/MAX engine improvements, emphasizing safety, quality, and market demand alignment.
Boeing continues to manage and derisk defense programs, secure significant contracts, and implement cultural changes. The company highlights milestones in tanker deliveries, space contracts, and defense services. Progress in production and customer satisfaction is noted, alongside efforts to enhance company culture and employee engagement.
Boeing reports a 30% revenue increase to $23.3 billion, driven by higher commercial deliveries and defense volume. The company achieves positive free cash flow of $238 million, marking the first such quarter since 2023. BCA delivers a record 160 airplanes, boosting revenue by nearly 50% to $11.1 billion. Production milestones include stabilizing the 737 factory at 38 per month, with plans to increase to 42 per month, and completing rework on pre-2023 737-8s, shutting down the Shadow Factory.
Boeing reports stable inventory levels, updates on aircraft programs, and a $2 billion loss provision for the 777X. Cash flow outlook adjusted for higher capital expenditures, with a focus on stabilizing defense programs and strong performance in global services.
Boeing discusses the impact of the Lyx program on cash flow, highlighting a $2 billion headwind and expecting neutrality by 2027. The company reports positive free cash flow, increased production rates, and a robust $600 billion backlog, reaffirming confidence in long-term fundamentals and customer delivery.
The discussion centered around delays in obtaining Tia approvals for the Triple 7 aircraft's certification, leading to a reassessment of the program timeline. It was acknowledged that both the company and the FAA were learning the requirements for the new incremental Tia process, resulting in slower progress than initially anticipated. A more conservative estimate was implemented to accommodate the extended approval process, with confidence in the aircraft's maturity and the potential for quicker flight testing once approvals are secured.
A $4.9 billion charge for Boeing's 777X program, attributed to certification delays and increased carrying costs, necessitates a revised production plan. The company is addressing the situation by improving long-term productivity, mitigating impacts on customers, and renegotiating with suppliers based on the revised schedule. The charge includes provisions for aircraft rework, production disruptions, and learning curve adjustments, reflecting better-informed estimates from current experiences.
Discusses Boeing's plan to incrementally increase 737 production rates, emphasizing readiness and supply chain alignment. Highlights the importance of testing at higher rates before official ramp-up, aiming for a 42-unit monthly rate by year-end, with further increases contingent on system maturity and supply chain capacity.
Discussion focuses on the certification process for Dash 7 and 10 aircraft, highlighting anti-ice system testing, hardware/software modifications, and FAA certification steps. Confidence in completing certification is expressed, with more work anticipated for Dash 10 compared to Dash 7, excluding anti-ice system updates.
Boeing discusses its production rate increase challenges for the 787 Dreamliner, focusing on supply chain constraints, particularly seat certifications, and the need for stability before further ramping up. The company anticipates moving from a rate of 8 to 10 in the coming year, emphasizing the importance of managing the supply chain effectively to achieve cash profitability.
Discusses Q4 free cash flow expectations with factors like BCA volumes, interest payments, and DOJ payments, projecting positive cash flow before DOJ payment. Outlines early 2025 cash flow trends, emphasizing improved performance and a favorable outlook, with detailed planning to be shared in January.
The CEO reassures investors about the company's trajectory towards achieving a billion dollar free cash flow target, emphasizing the importance of operational excellence and a strong backlog. While he acknowledges the need for time to fully assess the framework, he expresses confidence in the business's underlying cash generation capabilities, promising a future presentation on the topic.
Discussion centered around Boeing's immediate M&A priorities, highlighting the closure of the Jefferson deal and awaiting final US approval for the Spirit transaction, emphasizing integration plans and no immediate M&A targets beyond these. M&A progress and integration strategies were detailed, with no further M&A targets mentioned.
The dialogue discusses the strategic investment and expansion of the Charleston facility to increase production rates from 10 to 14 units per month. It highlights the ongoing efforts to double the manufacturing footprint, providing additional flexibility for storage. The expansion is aimed at meeting market demand for higher production rates in the teens, with anticipated higher capital expenditures in the coming year. The discussion also touches on related investments in St. Louis for growth and expansion.
Discusses current supply chain challenges focusing on seating certification, engine demand, and the overall confidence in meeting production rates, highlighting proactive measures with suppliers to mitigate potential bottlenecks.
The new leader emphasizes enthusiasm and teamwork, prioritizing balance sheet health and sustainable recovery improvements. A $28 billion cash balance is expected post-transactions, with a focus on short-term contributions and future planning.
要点回答
Q:What is the new production rate for the 737 and what is the approach to further rate increases?
A:The new production rate for the 737 is 42 airplanes per month. Future rate increases beyond 42 per month will be in increments of 5, but these will not occur until the company achieves stability and readiness at the current rate.
Q:What are the key achievements of Boeing's Commercial Airplanes division?
A:The key achievements include a 75% reduction in tooling work on 737 and a 60% reduction across all airplanes, successfully ramping up 737 production to 38 airplanes per month, and presenting a plan to the FAA to increase production to 42 airplanes a month. The team is guided by a safety and quality plan, and performance is monitored against six KPIs.
Q:What important milestone did the FAA announce regarding 737 Max and 787?
A:The FAA announced it will allow delegation to Boeing to issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 Max and 787 airplanes.
Q:What is the status of the 780 7th program and what recent investment has been made?
A:The 780 7th team is performing well and is working towards demonstrating stability at rate 7. A successful Rate 8 Capstone review with the FAA was completed, and an investment in the expansion of the South Carolina site has been made to meet exceptional market demand.
Q:What caused the recent delay in the 777X program and what is the new expected delivery timeframe?
A:The delay in the 777X program was caused by an expectation that the certification would take longer than anticipated. The new expected delivery timeframe is in the third quarter of the next year.
Q:What are the design changes and timeline for the 737, 7, and 10 programs?
A:The 737, 7, and 10 programs will have a final set of design changes to address the Engine anti-Ice issue, with certification expected in 2026.
Q:What progress is being made in Boeing's defense business and what are some recent contract wins?
A:Progress in the defense business includes derisking development programs, stability on the EACs, and proactive engagement with customers and suppliers. Notable milestones include the delivery of the 100th KC 46 tanker and a $2.8 billion contract for the Evolved Strategic Satcom program from the US Space Force, as well as multi-year contracts valued at $2.7 billion to produce additional PAC 3 seekers.
Q:What is the company's current progress in executing its contingency plan during the Iam representative workforce strike?
A:The company is executing its contingency plan by continuing to work with a reduced workforce to maintain production rates similar to those before the work stoppage. They are building JDMS at the same rate and progressing on MQ 25 and T 7 A development programs.
Q:What recent agreements have been made in the global services sector?
A:Global Services, through Boeing, has secured contracts for digital capabilities related to fleet maintenance operations and repair, such as an agreement with EBA Aire that includes digital diagnostic tools and advanced analytics to improve efficiency and maintenance operations.
Q:How is the company culture change progressing, and what feedback mechanisms are in place?
A:The company culture change is progressing positively, with employees actively embracing new values and behaviors. Production teams are using these to improve collaboration, and the company is seeing improvements in relationships with customers. A voice of employee survey will be conducted to gauge progress and areas needing improvement.
Q:What financial results did the company achieve and what are the expectations for the future?
A:Financially, the company saw revenue up 30% to $23.3 billion, core loss per share of $7.47, and positive free cash flow of $238 million. They anticipate further improvements, such as increased production rates, positive cash flow, and continuing to address the challenges outlined by the Lyx program delays.
Q:What are the latest updates on the 737 and 770 programs, including production rates and inventory levels?
A:The 737 program delivered 121 airplanes with a factory production rate stabilization at 38 per month. A rate increase to 42 per month was agreed upon with the FAA. For the 770, inventory levels were stable at approximately 35 airplanes, and the company continued working on anti-ice design updates with the FAA for certification. A provision of $1.4 billion was recorded for the 770 program with first delivery now expected in 2023, adjusted from the prior expectation of 2022.
Q:What are the main factors contributing to the incremental loss provision and cash flow impacts mentioned?
A:The incremental loss provision and cash flow impacts are mainly due to the certification program delay, additional customer concessions, rework costs on built aircraft, learning curve adjustments, and increased carrying costs of production operations. These costs are higher because of rework on built aircraft, incremental production disruptions, and learning curve adjustments. The cash flow impact includes headwinds of about $2 billion in 2026 from delayed deliveries, which will turn into tailwinds later in the decade as delayed units are delivered.
Q:What benefits did the company receive from completing dry run flight tests?
A:The company obtained important verification data to support technical risk burnout even though it did not receive certification credit from the Federal Aviation Administration (FA) for those flights.
Q:What were the financial and operational highlights of Bds' performance?
A:Bds delivered 30 aircraft and two satellites, with revenue growth of 25% to $6.9 billion due to improved operational performance and a higher volume. The operating margin increased significantly to 1.7%, largely reflecting better operational performance and included minor impacts from the Iam work stoppage. Bds booked $9 billion in orders and backlog grew to a record $76 billion. The company made progress stabilizing fixed price development programs and benefits from active management in risk retirement and developing win-win opportunities.
Q:What were the financial and operational results of Global Services?
A:Global Services performed well with revenue up 10% to $5.4 billion, primarily from improved commercial and government volume. Operating margin was 17.5%, up 50 basis points, and the business booked $8 billion in orders with a year-to-date book-to-bill ratio of 1.2.
Q:What is the current status of cash and debt, and what are the expectations for future capital expenditures?
A:Cash and marketable securities ended at $23 billion, and the debt balance was $53.4 billion. With access to $10 billion in undrawn revolving credit facilities, the company remains committed to balance sheet strength and maintaining an investment-grade rating. For the fourth quarter, cash flow is expected to be positive before any impact from potential payments for future products and growth, with a CapEx spend now expected to be closer to $8 billion for the year.
Q:How does the company anticipate its cash flow performance throughout the year?
A:The company expects a free cash flow usage of about $2 billion, barring the impact of a prolonged government shutdown. Even with higher CapEx, better-than-expected performance year-to-date supports the updated outlook.
Q:What is the updated outlook for the 737 and 787 programs?
A:The company is experiencing a reset due to challenges with the 737 program, but the overall performance is trending favorably with limited FAA delegation for airworthiness certificates, higher production rates, improved company performance, and positive free cash flow in the quarter. The markets the company serves are significant, with a strong backlog of over $600 billion.
Q:What factors led to the negative cash flow in script on the 737 program and when can it reach neutrality?
A:The negative cash flow is a headwind of about $2 billion due to delivery timing and will convert to a tailwind later in the decade as delayed units are delivered. The 737 program is expected to reach neutrality in cash flow around 2024, becoming a source of positive free cash flow as inventory grows and payments from aircraft deliveries and advances increase.
Q:What is the main issue that has caused a delay in receiving TIA approval?
A:The main issue that has caused a delay in receiving TIA approval is the underestimated amount of work required to get the TIA approvals and for the FIA to review all the necessary data submissions.
Q:What steps are being taken to address the issues with the TIA approval process?
A:To address the issues with the TIA approval process, the team is rebaselining the program to incorporate the learnings from the process and is looking for ways to streamline the process.
Q:What clarification was provided regarding the TIA process and what is currently causing delays?
A:Clarification provided regarding the TIA process indicates that the delays are due to a combination of factors. On the FAA side, it's the first airplane going through this incremental TIA process, requiring specific analysis and data to be completed and submitted. Additionally, the process has taken longer for the FAA to review the submittals and grant approval.
Q:How is the company managing the 777x supply chain given the delay?
A:The company is managing the 777x supply chain by flowing the new revised schedule out to suppliers and negotiating the impact of the delay on a case-by-case basis. The revised estimate and charge contemplated the impact of the supply chain as part of the management of the delay.
Q:What are the expectations for the 737 production ramp and when can we expect the production rates to increase?
A:The expectation for the 737 production ramp is that the company will exit the year at a rate of 42 units per month, having already begun loading at this rate in preparation. The next anticipated production rate increase will be to 47 units per month, following the demonstrated stability at the higher rate and ensuring that the system is ready before moving up. Early implementation of the next rate is avoided to ensure system maturity.
Q:What factors are considered when determining the follow-on cadence and inventory levels?
A:The follow-on cadence and inventory levels are influenced by the deliberate approach to doing the right thing and meeting key metrics, which allows for faster movement than initially planned. They are also impacted by alignment with the supply chain in terms of inventory balances and expectations, and by how quickly the supply chain can ramp up.
Q:What process will be used for future rate increases, and what are the expectations regarding its efficiency?
A:The same process that was used for the BBC Ed will be applied for future rate increases, including using the same metrics and capstone review process. The expectation is that this process will not be an impediment in the future and has already proven to be efficient, albeit with some initial challenges in the first approval process.
Q:What are the current status and outlook for obtaining certification on the Dash 7 and 10?
A:For the Dash 7 and 10, the team has completed a significant number of hours of testing on the anti-ice design and needs to make hardware and software modifications to the test aircraft. The outlook is positive as they have a lot of test data and analysis to aid in the certification process with the FAA, which is considered straightforward. The process is expected to be completed within the next few months.
Q:What is the anticipated impact of the rate increase on the 87 program, particularly in the supply chain?
A:The impact of the rate increase on the 87 program includes an increase in production rates from the current Ed to the next phase, with a focus on having a stable supply chain before the rate increase. There is an expectation that moving from Ed to will be more challenging due to the supply chain, particularly with seat certifications, which are expected to remain a constraining item. The plan is to ensure stability at the Ed month rate before increasing production.
Q:What are the expectations for free cash flow in Q4 and beyond, considering the recent capstone review and the potential DOJ payment?
A:Positive core free cash flow is expected in Q4 pre the DOJ payment, with an anticipated uptick in Bds due to seasonality and a tanker award, contributing to a modest excess of a billion dollars. However, there are expectations of lower receipts in the fourth quarter due to a mix of lower expected deliveries of ed. Interest payments are expected to be about $900 million plus, which is a step up from the second quarter by about $600 million. The potential impact of the DOJ payment, which is about $700 million, needs to be reconciled with these factors to understand the full picture for Q4 free cash flow.
Q:What is the company's outlook on the fourth quarter and next year?
A:The company expects better performance operationally in the fourth quarter relative to the third and a good exit rate for next year. While the performance has improved throughout the year, particularly in free cash flow, it is still early to make strong conclusions. The speaker is still going through the planning process and will provide more color on the full year financials in January. Nonetheless, things are trending favorably, and the company is bullish on its outlook.
Q:Can the company achieve the $5 billion free cash flow target, and what is the projected timeline?
A:The company believes that the foundation is in place for a steady and gradual improvement in financials over the upcoming years, leading to an expectation that the financials will flow again. While it is too early to provide a specific long-term framework, the company is confident in its underlying cash generation capability to return to historical levels. The key to unlocking cash flow potential is operational excellence, and the speaker plans to develop the framework after assessing operating plans. There is not yet a projected timeline for achieving the $5 billion free cash flow target.
Q:What are the company's M&A priorities, and how will recent acquisitions affect free cash flow?
A:The company's current M&A focus is on closing the Jefferson deal, which is expected to happen before the Spirit transaction, and then proceeding with the integration phase. The integration will involve deintegrating the Jefferson business from the digital business and reintegrating the Spirit business. As for the impact on free cash flow, the speaker is confident in the company's ability to achieve historical levels of cash flow, with the operational excellence driving the potential for returning to those levels. However, detailed assessments of operating plans and cash flow drivers are needed to develop a full framework, which will be presented at the appropriate time.
Q:What changes are necessary in Charleston to increase production from 7 to 10 a month, and what are the plans for higher production rates?
A:The company has already started making steps toward higher production rates in Charleston. It plans to double the manufacturing footprint, essentially expanding the Charleston facility to support production rates higher than 10 units a month. The expansion is focused on achieving production rates in the teens, supported by market demand. The investment in the expansion is related to the goal of increasing production to 12 to 14 units a month, and the company is taking concrete steps towards this, including a formal groundbreaking.
Q:What are the potential constraint points in the supply chain and where are the main concerns for bottlenecks?
A:While the supply chain is doing well and there are no showstoppers, there are concerns around seating and engine production. Specific actions are being taken with suppliers to address the certification of seat installations on the aircraft and monitoring the demand for engines in both the forward fit and the aftermarket, as well as durability upgrades. The speaker suggests that the entire supply chain needs to be watched closely, and while there are no specific concerns at the moment, the situation could change suddenly. However, people are gaining confidence in the company's production capabilities, which is reducing fears of supply chain bottlenecks.
Q:What are the early observations and priorities of the new company leadership, and what are the plans for the balance sheet and cash balance?
A:The new leadership has observed a lot of enthusiasm and commitment among the team towards the company's recovery efforts. In the short term, priorities include getting up to speed with the company, maintaining a focus on restoring the health of the balance sheet, driving improvements in the recovery, and ensuring their sustainability. Looking ahead, the leadership is keeping an eye on the future while maintaining focus on short-term and medium-term recovery. The company expects the cash balance after the Jefferson sale to be around the high teens, which is lower than the starting cash balance of about $33 billion. The leadership is working towards contributing to and driving the recovery efforts.

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