SAP (SAP.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
SAP delivered robust Q3 2025 financial results with 27% cloud revenue growth, a 10 percentage point market share lead, and strategic AI integration. The company secured major contracts, launched new offerings, and expects accelerated revenue growth through 2027, driven by AI and cloud adoption, with a strong Q4 outlook and pipeline.
会议速览

The call discusses SAP's Q3 2025 financial outcomes, featuring a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session, emphasizing forward-looking statements and risk factors.

SAP reports robust Q3 financials with 27% cloud revenue growth, expanding market share through AI-integrated solutions. Notable customer success stories highlight transformative journeys, solidifying SAP's strategy for future growth and cloud revenue conversion.

SAP focuses on delivering software cloud solutions with strong infrastructure partners, enabling quick scalability and innovation. The company secures major contracts, like the US Army's migration to the cloud, and avoids direct infrastructure investments, ensuring healthy margins and global coverage.

SAP introduces a sovereign software cloud for regulated sectors, ensuring data sovereignty, and enhances business value through AI systems that orchestrate intelligent agents across value chains, automating processes and optimizing productivity.

SAP leverages AI to enhance business operations, streamline data management, and foster growth. By automating routine tasks, improving data accuracy, and expanding AI capabilities, SAP is setting the stage for significant advancements in 2025 and beyond, aiming for double-digit revenue growth by 2027.

SAP reports strong Q3 performance with significant cloud revenue growth, exceeding €18.8 billion in cloud backlog. The company highlights its 15th consecutive quarter of over 30% growth in the Cloud ERP suite, reflecting successful market share gains. SAP also discusses regional performance, operational profitability, and future outlook, emphasizing robust pipeline opportunities and strategic acquisitions to sustain growth.

Discussed elongated sales cycles in US public sector and manufacturing, with a focus on Q4 bookings pipeline showing positive recovery trends. Emphasized AI-driven cost optimization in deals, particularly in chemical industries. Backlog analysis indicated a potential for stronger Q4 performance, challenging a 25% exit rate projection due to improved execution and market conditions.

The dialogue discusses the impact of delayed backlog on cloud revenue, emphasizing confidence in Q4 and future growth, supported by a robust pipeline, industry recovery, and AI-driven business cases.

SAP discusses positive pipeline growth and uptake of its ERP transition options, emphasizing the strategic shift to cloud, pricing incentives, and support for large customers undergoing phased transformations.

SAP highlights its global expansion in software cloud infrastructure, emphasizing AI-driven business solutions over technical agent counts. The company focuses on delivering value through business policies, enhancing productivity and intelligence in supply chain planning, and collaboratively developing standard agents to cover critical business capabilities, reducing slippage risk and boosting pipeline conversion, especially in Q4.

The dialogue discusses SAP's approach to integrating Business Cloud for data flow with systems like Databricks and Google, emphasizing the importance of data quality and context for AI use cases. It highlights the strategic balance between leveraging partnerships for data processing and maintaining core competencies in AI agents and applications, ensuring SAP remains central to enterprise analytics and business processes.

Discussion revolves around the confidence in achieving revenue acceleration for the next year, attributed to a strong pipeline, CCB growth exceeding initial projections, and a high recurring revenue share, despite challenges from stalled deals earlier in the year.

Discussion revolves around the company's free cash flow guidance, emphasizing the impact of tax cash out phasing, transformation credits consumption, and working capital dynamics on Q4 estimates, with an emphasis on cautious forecasting amidst various headwinds.

Discusses SAP's robust position in AI and cloud services, emphasizing collaboration with AI providers and leveraging high-quality data for customer value, while maintaining a competitive edge over Oracle's infrastructure focus.

The dialogue discusses how price discipline affects booking patterns and competitiveness, especially in the context of currency depreciation. It highlights the benefits of a weaker dollar for U.S. competitors and questions the effectiveness of price discipline as the quarter progresses. The conversation also touches on the challenge of comparing financial data across different currencies and the need for clear communication regarding market dynamics.

Discusses how AI facilitates cost optimization and modern automation, enhancing business cases and justifying premium pricing for sophisticated cloud capabilities, while maintaining a balance between volume and pricing strategies.

Discussion revolves around funding AI investments through reallocating R&D spend and efficiency gains, questioning if accelerated investment is necessary for industry leadership. Support revenues show accelerating decline, indicating successful customer transitions to cloud, with cloud backlog transfer easing new deal signing pressures.

Emphasizes hiring top-tier AI talent for predictive modules and intelligent apps, highlighting efficiency gains from AI tools like code generation, with a 300% increase in adoption, and strategic workforce shifts from traditional development to AI-focused roles.

The dialogue highlights the importance of net bookings and churn on CCP growth, with a focus on Q4's potential impact. Despite challenges in transactional business, there's an observed trend towards improved pipeline and optimism for achieving or surpassing a 25% CCP growth, considering recent industry sentiment shifts and hard work on key areas.

A discussion highlighted the role of AI in accelerating multi-year transformation deals, emphasizing cost optimization and new business monetization. The conversation also touched on the increased optimism regarding AI's impact on business, reflecting a positive shift from previous quarters.
要点回答
Q:How is AI positioned within SAP's current offerings and future plans?
A:AI is positioned as the key enabler of SAP's solutions, and it is being infused into the integrated business suite. SAP's strategy involves not only developing AI agents but also orchestrating them across the company's value chain to automate and infuse intelligence into end-to-end business processes. The company is releasing AI systems tailored to specific business functions and is also seeing increased adoption and frequency of use of SAP Business AI by end-users.
Q:What are the highlights of SAP's Q3 2025 financial results?
A:The highlights of SAP's Q3 2025 financial results include consistent growth in cloud revenue at more than 25% for 5 consecutive quarters, a solid cloud cost margin of about 75%, total revenue growth of 11%, a 27% increase in cloud backlog, and an excellent bottom line performance with free cash flow increasing by 5% and a higher over-weight profit.
Q:What are some of the customer stories from Q3 2025 that showcase the benefits of SAP's offerings?
A:Customer stories from Q3 2025 include global companies like Alphabet, Lufthansa, and Magnum Ice Cream adopting SAP Business Data Cloud and Business AI, and expanding their SAP footprint with additional business suite solutions. Other companies such as Checkwall and Takeda have also signed up for Business Data Cloud. These stories demonstrate the effectiveness of SAP's strategy and the potential benefits customers can achieve by adopting its AI-infused integrated business suite.
Q:How does SAP's integrated business suite and AI strategy compare to competitors?
A:SAP's integrated business suite and AI strategy is differentiated from competitors by focusing on end-to-end value chain transformation and the automation and infusion of intelligence across business processes. SAP emphasizes the combination of AI with business processes and contextual data to create high-value AI use cases. The company's strategy includes developing AI systems and orchestrating AI agents to support specific business owners and functions, something that SAP claims only they can do effectively.
Q:What is SAP's approach to the US public sector market and what framework contract was awarded?
A:SAP's approach to the US public sector market is to provide cloud solutions alongside strong cloud infrastructure partners. This strategy has led to winning a major framework contract with the US government, and the company has already received first orders under this framework. An example of a recent win is the United States Army contract, which enables the migration from on-premise systems to the cloud.
Q:What are the guiding principles behind Sap's adoption of AI?
A:The guiding principle behind Sap's adoption of AI is the belief that simplification and internal AI adoption will enable their headcount to grow significantly below revenue.
Q:What impact has AI had on Sap's performance?
A:AI has contributed to Sap's resilience across regions and industries and is expected to accelerate double-digit total revenue growth through 2027.
Q:What was the performance of Sap in Q3?
A:In Q3, Sap had strong execution on current cloud backlog and cloud revenue, resulting in a healthy growth in operating profit. The Cloud ERP suite delivered its 15th consecutive quarter with growth exceeding 30%, validating the strength of their strategy.
Q:How much did Cloud backlog and Cloud revenue increase by in Q3?
A:Cloud backlog exceeded €18.8 billion, up 27%, and Cloud revenue also increased 27% driven by the strong performance of the Cloud ERP suite, which grew 31% in Q3.
Q:How is Sap's non-IFRS cloud gross margin for the quarter?
A:The non-IFRS cloud gross margin for the quarter expanded by 1.1 percentage points to 75.1%, driving cloud gross profit up by 28%.
Q:What is the reason for the negative impact on operating profit growth?
A:Both IFRS and non-IFRS operating profit growth were negatively impacted by approximately €100 million due to a change in case law affecting SAP's other tax litigation provisions and more than €100 million related to workforce transformation.
Q:What is the basic IFRS earnings per share and non-IFRS earnings per share?
A:The basic IFRS earnings per share increased to €1.72 and the non-IFRS earnings per share increased to €1.59.
Q:How is Sap's outlook for the remainder of 2025?
A:Sap now expects to reach the range of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 towards its lower end due to late bookings in the first half of the year. Despite this, they expect to lend towards the upper end of their operating profit outlook range and forecast free cash flow to exceed the previous target of €8 billion.
Q:What is the significance of Q4 in relation to cloud revenue guidance?
A:Q4 is crucial for cloud revenue guidance as it is considered a very important quarter for delivering a good performance and picking up the stalled pipeline from the first half of the year.
Q:What details were announced regarding the SAP ERP transition option?
A:SAP announced details around an ERP transition option allowing customers to move to S/4 in the cloud, with pricing increases for those who don't sign by the year-end. This is expected to help move customers to the cloud and secure their systems with added support and security measures.
Q:What is the anticipated impact of the transition option on customers and pipeline?
A:The transition option is expected to help with the uptake of cloud services and is anticipated to contribute positively to the pipeline, with the potential to sign first deals in Q4 if all goes well.
Q:Why is the focus on the value equation and software/cloud?
A:The focus on the value equation and software/cloud is due to SAP's strategy of emphasizing the business value provided by its solutions over infrastructure, although it remains competitive in the software as a cloud space.
Q:What are the benefits of AI for customers and how does it impact deal closure?
A:AI benefits customers by enabling targeted marketing campaigns and a better understanding of consumer trends. It impacts deal closure by providing a compelling business reason, reducing slippage risk, and being a key reason for many Q4 deals.
Q:How does the new approach with AI and analytics impact future economics for SAP?
A:The new approach with AI and analytics is focused on delivering high value through AI use cases that involve processing data without moving it, ensuring data quality and business context. This will enhance economics by combining with SAP's core strengths in predictive analytics and AI agents, and through partnerships with Google and Databricks. This approach leverages data processing within SAP applications without needing to transfer data, thus maintaining control over data quality and business context.
Q:What is the confidence in revenue acceleration next year and the role of CCB growth?
A:Confidence in revenue acceleration next year is strong, despite a potentially higher CCB growth rate needed to achieve the guidance. This confidence stems from a solid pipeline in Q4 and the closing of previously stalled deals, which together with strong recurring revenue shares, are expected to deliver the anticipated revenue acceleration for the coming year.
Q:What is the projected difference between cloud revenues and the growth exiting 25, and what is the main reason for the lower transactional business?
A:The projected difference between cloud revenues and the growth exiting 25 should be not more than a percentage point. The main reason for the lower transactional business is the overwhelming reason being lower travel activity for Concur on bookings, which is related to government shutdowns and lower travel activity.
Q:What factors influenced the change in free cash flow guidance for the year?
A:The change in free cash flow guidance for the year was influenced by the phasing of tax cash out, which was higher in the first half (H1) and Q3 but will be even higher in Q4. There is always cautious consumption of transformation credits which can create some cash headwinds. The variability is also due to the receipts and payments of certain activities at the end of the quarter.
Q:How does the competitive landscape with Oracle look, especially in terms of their infrastructure offering?
A:The competitive landscape with Oracle does not present an incremental risk, according to the speaker. There is a focus on scaling the infrastructure and training LLDs, but customers are positive about the value provided by the speaker's company for end-users in areas such as supply chain, HR, and finance. The company can offer highly competitive global offerings without the need to build data centers everywhere, as their strategy is open and works well. The company's goal with large language modules is to use them rather than train them.
Q:What is the impact of price discipline on the linearity of bookings and how is it maintained as the quarters end?
A:Price discipline has a positive impact on the linearity of bookings throughout the quarter. It ensures that the end of the quarter does not lead to a rush to close deals, which could result in lower-quality deals. Price discipline helps in maintaining good business cases and strategic deals, which also helps in protecting prices. This strategy of right mix of volume and pricing is crucial for the sales team to meet their quota without sacrificing deal quality.
Q:What is the reason for the acceleration in support revenue decline?
A:The acceleration in support revenue decline is an indication that customers are going live with the cloud, which is considered very healthy. This trend is attributed to the adoption of customers in the cloud as part of their digital transformation journey.
Q:What is the shift within the R&D department and how is it impacting deal predictability and product development?
A:Within the R&D department, there is a shift away from traditional coding features and functions towards AI developers and data scientists building predictive modules. This shift is expected to continue, and is already contributing to better deal predictability and improved product development.
Q:What factors should be considered when assessing the range of potential outcomes for the fourth quarter in terms of Cloud Customer Production (CCP)?
A:When assessing the range of potential outcomes for the fourth quarter in terms of Cloud Customer Production (CCP), net bookings and churn are the key factors to consider. The ability to close deals by the end of the quarter with a certain deployment time significantly influences the CCP. Specific individual quarters should not be read into too much, but trends and overall performance provide a bandwidth for how numbers should gravitate.
Q:What is the projected pipeline completion and how does it relate to the company's expectations for Q4 bookings?
A:The projected pipeline completion is estimated to be around 25%, which the company considers a reasonable scenario. However, the sentiment in some industries has changed, leading to a more optimistic outlook for Q4 bookings. If Q4 were to disappoint, it would likely be because the actual numbers are below 25%. The current pipeline is viewed as better than what was experienced in Q3, and there is a belief that the momentum will continue into the fourth quarter.
Q:How is the AI offering contributing to deal acceleration and customer discussions?
A:The AI offering is playing a crucial role in accelerating deals and influencing customer discussions by helping customers not only with cloud migration but also with cost optimization and new business model monetization. AI use cases are emerging in process automation, cost management, and intelligent quoting, which are contributing to more dynamic and transformational deals.

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