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Chewy (CHWY.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Chewy Inc. experienced a 9% year-over-year net sales growth to $3.1 billion in Q2 2025, driven by strategic initiatives like the Chewy Plus membership program and the launch of Get Real, a private brand of fresh dog food. Gross margins expanded to 30.4%, and adjusted EBITDA reached $183.3 million, with a 5.9% margin. The company is investing in expanding its CVC network, onshoring inventory, and enhancing customer loyalty and engagement to capture a larger market share and deliver shareholder value. Anticipating further growth, Chewy aims to leverage economies of scale, product mix improvements, and innovative programs to maintain competitive differentiation and achieve long-term margin expansion.
会议速览
Chili's 2025 Q2 Earnings Call: Financial Updates and Leadership Insights
The earnings call discusses Q2 fiscal 2025 results, introducing interim financial leadership, outlining forward-looking statements, and providing reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, all available on the investor relations website for further reference.
Q2 Financial Highlights and Strategic Initiatives: Sales Growth, Chewy Plus, and Private Brand Launch
Discussed Q2 financial achievements, including a 9% YoY sales increase and robust free cash flow. Chewy Plus program shows strong customer engagement and profitability. Launched Get Real, a premium private brand dog food, with positive customer feedback. CVC network and strategic growth investments highlighted.
Chewy's Strategic Growth and Profitability Plan for Fresh Food and Frozen Segments
The company highlights its capacity build-up for the fresh and frozen segments, aiming for national delivery within one day by 2025. It emphasizes high-margin subscription models, innovative product launches, and strategic investments in private brands and Chewy Plus to mitigate market pressures and accelerate market share gains, positioning for long-term success.
Strong Q2 Financial Performance with Margin Expansion and Free Cash Flow Generation
The company reported robust second-quarter financial results, with net sales increasing 8.6% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, achieving 30.4% gross margin and 90 basis points of margin expansion. Advertising and marketing expenses remained consistent with targets, and adjusted EBITDA reached $183.3 million, reflecting 5.9% margin and 80 basis points of expansion. Free cash flow was $105.9 million, surpassing expectations, highlighting effective cost management and operational efficiency.
2025 Financial Outlook: Sales Growth, Margin Expansion, and Strong Cash Position
The company forecasts a 7-8% year-over-year sales growth for 2025, aiming for 5.4%-5.7% Adjusted EBITDA margins, with 75 basis points expansion expected. A strong cash position of $1.4 billion is maintained, debt-free, and a share repurchase program with $8 million remaining capacity. The guidance includes $315 million in share-based compensation, 430 million diluted shares, and an effective tax rate of 20%-22%. Q3 diluted earnings per share are projected between $28-$30.
Investment Strategy & Marketing for Chewy's Growth in High-Margin Verticals
Discusses investments in high-margin verticals like Chewy Plus and Get Reel, emphasizing organic growth through existing customer base, quality product development, and CRM capabilities, with minimal marketing spend expected. Highlights the potential for these categories to drive strong net promoter scores and sales without significant incremental CapEx.
Strategies for Controlling Temporary Costs Amid FC Changes
Discusses methods to limit the impact of temporary costs, particularly in relation to FC adjustments, aiming for financial stability and efficiency.
SG&A Leverage and Growth Strategies for 2025 and Beyond
The dialogue outlines strategies for achieving SG&A leverage, emphasizing growth through automation and fulfillment site efficiency. It discusses the impact of new facility ramp-up, variable costs, and strategic investments in inventory and pricing. The focus is on moderating SGA costs in the second half of the year and leveraging economies of scale for sustained growth.
Q2 Gross Margin Improvement: Shift Towards Premium Products Highlighted
The dialogue focused on the enhancement of Q2 gross margins, attributing the success to a strategic shift towards premium products, with inquiries delving into the implications and execution of this change.
Strategies for Gross Margin Expansion and Investment in Growth for Future EBITDA
The dialogue discusses strategies for gross margin expansion, emphasizing product mix and auto ship penetration, with a focus on maintaining a healthy annualized growth. It also outlines investments in membership programs, ownership subscription, and selective pricing opportunities, all within the company's control, aiming for a 50% incremental EBITDA margin by 2025.
Gat Rio's Market Potential and Customer Acquisition Strategy in a Growing Category
The dialogue discusses the projected growth of a category valued at $3-4 billion today, expected to reach $8-12 billion with mid-teens growth rates. Gat Rio anticipates a significant market share, leveraging its supply chain sophistication for high EBITDA margins. Currently, 70% of customers are existing, with 30% being new, and the company expects high average spending per customer, indicating successful customer acquisition and conversion strategies.
Analysis of Advertising Trends, Household Formation, and Customer Growth Expectations
The dialogue covers advertising environment trends, expectations for net household formations, and customer growth versus pricing strategies. Key points include stable relinquishments, potential for low to mid single-digit growth, and active customer growth expectations. The company anticipates continuing growth despite tougher comparables, with net household additions expected to trend between 4.5% and 5.5% due to stronger auto share and product mix improvements.
Strong Performance Amid High Competitive Intensity in Advertising Market
Despite high competitive intensity in the advertising market, the company has shown strong performance with a 14% increase in net traffic and over 25% growth in mobile app sessions year over year. The business is confident in its long-term target and the effectiveness of its sponsored ads, which continue to resonate well with customers.
Strategies for Gaining Market Share in Hard Goods Amid Recovery
The dialogue highlights the company's strategies for increasing market share in hard goods, focusing on inventory expansion, maintaining high in-stock levels, and enhancing customer engagement. These efforts are seen as key drivers for volume growth, with minimal impact on average selling price. The company remains optimistic about the continued recovery in hard goods, attributing success to a rapid acceleration in product availability and effective customer communication.
Expanding Market Dominance Through Integrated Health and Supply Services
A strategic approach to scaling e-commerce operations in food and supplies, coupled with a robust health ecosystem, positions the company as a leader in B2C, B2B, and B2B2C services. Key growth areas include pharmacy, compounding, and software solutions, with high barriers to entry and expanding market potential, particularly in compounding and digital health services.
Enhancing Pet Membership Program & Auto Ship Growth Strategies
Discussed the Chewie class program's rapid expansion, positioning it as a leading pet membership offering. Highlighted improvements in cohort quality through enhanced subscription rates and net subscriber retention, attributing success to programmatic enhancements and industry stabilization. Addressed the sustained growth of auto ship services, emphasizing the continuous layer cake effect on sales through ship with Qi, and expressed confidence in maintaining competitive edge by focusing on customer-centric strategies.
Chewy's Plus Program Boosts Engagement and Revenue Incrementality
Chewy's Plus membership sees increased engagement, with members exploring three more categories on average than non-members, leading to higher basket consolidation. The program, particularly effective with low and high-spending cohorts, aims for margin accretion, leveraging auto-ship enhancements to accelerate wallet share growth. Early results suggest accelerated netback curves and high customer retention post-30 months, indicative of the program's success in attracting and retaining customers, thus boosting overall revenue incrementality.
要点回答
Q:How did the Q2 2025 performance compare to the same period in 2024?
A:The Q2 2025 performance showed a year-over-year growth in customer sales, with an increase in auto ship customer sales by nearly 15%, and a 15% growth in hardgoods sales, primarily due to structural volume growth. The Qi+ program exceeded expectations. The company also had year-over-year growth in new customer NPS for the Q2 2025 cohort. On the profitability side, gross margin reached 30.4%, an expansion of nearly 80 and 90 basis points compared to the prior year and prior quarter, respectively. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow both showed significant year-over-year increases.
Q:What strategic initiatives are contributing to Chilis's growth?
A:Strategic initiatives contributing to Chilis's growth include the continued outperformance of the Chei Vet Care (CVC) network, which is generating strong demand and broader ecosystem benefits. The company remains on track to open 20 new practices in fiscal year 2025. Additionally, the Chei Plus program is rapidly strengthening, with approximately 3% of total monthly sales in the month of July to Chei Plus members. The company is observing strong incrementality in spend, net promoter score (NPS), and positive contribution profit per customer across Chei Plus customers. As a result, the program is expected to generate positive gross profit dollars in fiscal 2025, although at a lower gross margin rate than overall Chei.
Q:What is the outlook for the Chei Plus program and its impact on net sales and profitability?
A:Chilis expects approximately a mid-single-digit percentage of net sales to go through the Chei Plus program by the end of the year. The program is projected to generate positive gross profit dollars in fiscal 2025. However, the gross margin rate is anticipated to be below the company's overall gross margin due to the mix of states versus free trial members and the ramp in the second half of the year. As the program scales, the company will remain disciplined in evaluating program structure, including pricing and member benefits.
Q:What new product was launched in August, and how is it performing?
A:In August, Chilis launched Get Real, its new exclusive private brand of healthy, fresh dog food. The fresh and frozen segment is a fast-growing market due to humanization and premiumization trends in pet food. The new line of minimally processed fresh dog food, which is only available at Chewy, comes in three different varieties with a focus on palatability, quality, and overall customer experience. Although the product has only been in the market for a few weeks, customer reception has been strong, with positive feedback on shopping, delivery, and consumption.
Q:What are the company's expectations for the expansion of its fresh frozen segment and the timeline for scaling to a national footprint?
A:The company expects to be ready by the end of 2025 to deliver a majority of its fresh food offering to customers within a one-day transit time. It has built up sufficient capacity through 2028 to support growth in the fresh frozen segment for both Get Reel and national brand partners, at the lower end of the previously set CapEx guidance range.
Q:What is the anticipated impact of macroeconomic changes on the company's operations and what steps are being taken to mitigate these pressures?
A:The company anticipates the second half of the year to be dynamic due to an evolving macro environment as retailers pass on tariff-related costs to customers. To mitigate these pressures, the company has a higher mix of consumables, health and safety investments in onshoring, incremental discretionary inventory, and is selectively evaluating pricing while protecting product margins. It plans to lean into growth by investing behind the expansion of programs like Chewy Plus and private brands.
Q:Can you provide details on the company's second quarter financial performance and the factors influencing it?
A:The second quarter net sales grew 8.6% year over year to $3.1 billion, exceeding expectations. The second quarter gross margin expanded by 30.4%, representing approximately 90 basis points of margin expansion. However, SG&A expenses deleveraged by about 30 basis points year over year to $592.8 million or 19.1% of net sales. Q2 was impacted by higher inventory processing costs, the ramp of the Eastman Fulfillment Center, certain ship wound downs, and temporary increases in wage and benefit costs. The company believes these temporary increases are mainly due to seasonal demands and plans to deliver modest SG&A leverage in fiscal year 2025.
Q:What is the company's outlook for the third quarter and full year 2025, and what does it expect in terms of Adjusted EBITDA margin and free cash flow?
A:The company expects third quarter 2025 net sales to be between $3.07 and $3.1 billion, a growth of approximately 7 to 8% year over year. The full year 2025 net sales outlook has been raised and narrowed to between $12.5 and $12.6 billion, also showing a growth of approximately 7 to 8% year over year. The full year Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook is maintained at between 5.4% and 5.7%, with an expected Adjusted EBITDA flow-through of approximately 15% for the year. The company also expects Q3 adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.28 to $0.30 and reiterated its previously stated expectations for share-based compensation expense and interest income for 2025. The effective tax rate for 2025 is expected to be between 20% and 22%. The company also projects third quarter free cash flow to be around $105.9 million and for the full year, it reiterates its expectation to convert approximately 80% of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow with CapEx at the low end of the previously stated range of 1.5 to 2% of net sales.
Q:What is the strategy for converting existing customers to Plus members and what are the results?
A:The strategy for converting existing customers to Plus members is to expose them to the program through the company's large base of customers, without spending any incremental dollars on marketing externally. This is being achieved through on-site and funnel shopping experiences. The results have been good participation from existing Simple members in converting to become Plus members, with a marginal cost of nearly zero to the company.
Q:How is the approach to marketing for Reel different from previous strategies?
A:The approach to marketing for Reel is focused on leaning into the broader value proposition of being a destination for pet care, including food, supplies, and other services. This strategy aims for conversion of customers who visit the website, rather than just consideration building. The company has been focused on product quality and palatability, customer response, competitive pricing, and providing an enhanced product listing experience with high CRM capability.
Q:What factors contribute to the differentiation of the company's products in the market?
A:The differentiation of the company's products in the market is contributed by several factors including the quality and value proposition balance, competitive pricing compared to many other products on the market, and the unique curated product experience offered to customers. This experience is paired with high internal CRM capabilities.
Q:What are the expectations regarding the detria acquisition offer and future investments?
A:The company is pairing detria with a strong acquisition offer targeting customers who are high spenders on health and wellness. The potential for this category is considered to be the highest gross profit per unit category in the company. There are no incremental CapEx investments expected to 2028, assuming the program meets expectations. However, if the program exceeds expectations, the company will address the situation at that point.
Q:How is the company planning to leverage costs in 2025 and what does the performance in the first half indicate?
A:The company plans to leverage costs in 2025 by expecting roughly 60% of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion from gross margin and 40% from Opex leverage. This indicates that the company does expect to deliver SGMA leverage in 2025, as underlined by the performance in the first half of the year. The company's progress aligns with the target of delivering 200 basis points of leverage, having already achieved 50% of that target with the majority of leverage coming from ramping fulfillment sites.
Q:What are the specific factors that impact the leverage path in the back half of the year?
A:Specific factors impacting the leverage path in the back half of the year include the ramping up of the Houston facility, which takes about six months to deliver sufficient leverage, and faster unit growth that enhances variable costs due to structural growth. This growth allows for greater cost extraction and the realization of economies of scale as the facility reaches full capacity. One-time elements such as inventory build-up and higher inbound processing costs due to expected price increases, as well as higher wages and benefits, also play a role. These are expected to moderate in the back half of the year, contributing to the overall leverage path.
Q:What are the drivers of gross margin expansion in the current quarter?
A:The drivers of gross margin expansion in the current quarter include product mix across merchandising-led businesses, such as health, premium consumables, and hardware growth, as well as increasing auto-ship penetration and scale that provide economies of scale, and the ramping of sponsored ads initiatives.
Q:How does the company plan to deliver gross margin expansion in 2025?
A:The company plans to deliver a healthy level of gross margin expansion on an annualized basis, with approximately 60% of the 2025 EBITDA margin expansion expected to come from gross margin.
Q:What are the specific investments planned for the back half of the year?
A:For the back half of the year, the company is investing the incremental profit of approximately $5 million back into the business, which includes growing the Chewy Plus membership program, continuing to grow ownership, and opportunistically evaluating the market for selective pricing.
Q:What are the characteristics of the initial franchise, and how many new customers are there?
A:The initial franchise characteristics show that 70% of customers are existing customers, and 30% are net new customers. The company is benefiting from industry-wide traffic and is priming itself for conversion using its site experience.
Q:What is the expected size of the category over the next several years?
A:The category's size is projected to be north of $8 billion over the next several years, with a category growth rate of mid-teens.
Q:What is the company's market share expectation in the category?
A:The company expects to have a meaningful amount of share in the category, with a share position commensurate with the category's size and their current capacity and supply chain sophistication.
Q:What are the projected revenue and customer growth for the new business?
A:The projected revenue for the new business is north of $800 for toppers because they expect to attach two or three additional categories, and for full meals, the projected revenue is a plus $2500 customer on an annual basis.
Q:What does the company believe about its market share and growth rates in the back half of the year?
A:The company believes it is taking share and is excited about growing between 7 and 8% on a 52-week basis and the script range or so on a 53-week basis, which is on top of tougher comps moving into the back half of the year.
Q:What is the expected growth for active customers and net new accounts?
A:The company expects to grow active customers at the high end of the low single-digit range in 2025 despite modestly tougher comps in Q4. Net new accounts are expected to trend in the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range as the company benefits from stronger auto share and a stronger product mix.
Q:How is the competitive intensity in the market and how is the company performing in attracting customers?
A:The competitive intensity in the market is high, and the company is pleased with its performance, including a 14% increase in net traffic and over a 25% increase in mobile app sessions year over year. This suggests the company is effectively attracting customers which is positive for sponsored ads.
Q:What are the drivers of hard goods recovery?
A:The primary drivers of hard goods recovery include a rapid acceleration in inventory expansion with more products available for customers to choose from, high in-stock levels, and continued customer exposure through communication strategies both on-site and off-site.
Q:What are the company's differentiation points and strategies beyond food and supplies?
A:The company differentiates by credibly connecting food supply with the entire health ecosystem, including B2C, B2B, and B2B2C services. They have also established a compelling health TAM, growing at two times the rate of food and supplies, with offerings in various sectors such as pharmacy and compounding business. They leverage their scale to grow in these areas and provide personalized service akin to a local neighborhood pet store.
Q:What barriers to entry exist in the compounding industry?
A:The barriers to entry in the compounding industry are very high.
Q:What is the status of the CDC and how is it expected to contribute to future projections?
A:The CDC is ramping higher than expectations, which generates excitement for future projections.
Q:What benefits does the Chewie class program offer and how is it positioned in the market?
A:The Chewie class program offers benefits similar to Amazon Prime or Costco membership and is positioned as the best pet membership program in the industry, without significant concerns about competitive intensity.
Q:How has the quality of cohorts improved and what factors are contributing to this?
A:The quality of cohorts has improved due to two factors: an increase in customers enrolling in programs like autoshop or being brought in through programs like chei plus, and an improvement in net pac consolidation. This allows for more opportunities to retain customers and leads to better net retention rates.
Q:What impact has the auto ship program had on the company's revenue and retention?
A:The auto ship program has increased gross subscription adds and improved retention rates, resulting in a stronger net retention in ownership. This has contributed to a 'layer cake' effect, pushing a greater portion of sales through the auto ship program.
Q:What unique benefits do chei plus members provide and how is the program impacting the company's business?
A:Chei plus members engage with the program by adding an average of three more categories than non-members, leading to a healthier mix of cohorts for the company. This has enabled the consolidation of baskets and has allowed the company to expand its reach into high spend cohorts. The program has a strong impact on the quality of cohorts and overall business health.
Q:How does the company view its market position in relation to different customer segments?
A:The company views itself as the preferred place for the low-end value segment of the market, which represents roughly 12% of customers. However, it also operates in the broader market and benefits from online share consolidation from offline sales.
Q:What is the intention behind the Chewie class program in terms of revenue penetration and margins?
A:While the intention behind the Chewie class program is not explicitly stated in terms of revenue penetration, it is anticipated to be margin accretive. The company retains a high percentage of customers from year two onwards, indicating minimal attrition and a focus on loyalty and retention.
Q:What are the expectations for the margins of the Chewie class program as it ramps?
A:It is expected that the Chewie class program will be margin accretive. While the program will initially be gross margin rate dilutive, it will be highly accretive on a dollar basis and on a contribution profit basis. This indicates that the investment will result in significant revenue growth.
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