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博通公司 (AVGO.US) 2025财年第三季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Broadcom reported a record $16 billion Q3 FY2025 revenue, boosted by AI semiconductors and VMware expansion. AI semiconductor revenue surged 66% to $6.2 billion, while infrastructure software revenue grew 17% to $6.8 billion. The company anticipates strong AI revenue growth in FY2026, supported by a $110 billion AI and software-driven backlog. New Jericho 4 Ethernet fabric routers enhance AI cluster scalability, and VMware Cloud Foundation deployment by enterprise customers is ongoing. Broadcom expects non-AI semiconductor recovery and broadband growth, maintaining a disciplined inventory approach with $10.7 billion in cash and $66.3 billion in debt.
会议速览
Key points of Broadcom's third quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call.
Broadcom held its 2025 fiscal third quarter earnings conference call, during which the company presented its financial performance, including non-GAAP financial results, and provided financial forecasts for the fourth quarter along with commentary on the business environment. Investors can access detailed information on the company's website. The conference also mentioned risk factors that could impact actual results and highlighted the comparison between non-GAAP and GAAP indicators in the financial report.
Financial report for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year: Revenue reaches record high driven by AI semiconductor and network technology.
In the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, the company's total revenue reached a record $16 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by strong growth in AI semiconductor and networking technologies. AI semiconductor revenue saw accelerated growth, accounting for 65% of total AI revenue, and is expected to significantly increase in the 2026 fiscal year. In addition, the company introduced a series of innovative networking solutions, including OpenAI and Open Ethernet technologies, to address the need for large-scale computing, particularly in the field of generative AI. Non-AI semiconductor business is expected to recover in the fourth quarter.
Infrastructure Software and Engineering Development: Robust Performance and Innovative Achievements
The infrastructure software department showed strong performance in Q3, with revenue reaching 6.8 billion US dollars, exceeding expectations, and adding new contract value of over 1 billion US dollars. Through the acquisition of VMware, the integrated cloud platform VMware Cloud Foundation vEd was successfully launched, supporting on-premise or cloud deployment for enterprises, compatible with virtual machines and container applications, providing a strong competitive solution for public cloud. It is expected that Q4 infrastructure software revenue will reach 10 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth of 10%, driving full year revenue to 15 billion US dollars, with adjusted EBITDA of 5%. Overall performance set a record, with revenue of 16 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth of 22%, gross margin of 78.4%, operating profit of 10.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 32% compared to the same period last year.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software performance are strong, with the company releasing third-quarter financial results and fourth-quarter outlook.
The financial report shows that the company's semiconductor solutions revenue reached $9.2 billion in the third quarter, with accelerated year-on-year growth, mainly due to the growth in the AI field, and the proportion of total revenue increased. Infrastructure software revenue was $6.8 billion, up 17% year-on-year, accounting for 40% of revenue. Free cash flow in the third quarter reached $7 billion, accounting for 44% of revenue. The company expects revenue of $17.4 billion in the fourth quarter, with semiconductor revenue expected to reach $10.4 billion, up 30% year-on-year, and infrastructure software revenue expected to reach $7 billion, up 15% year-on-year.
AI business growth accelerates: Increased demand for XPUs driven by new large clients.
Discussed the reasons for the accelerated growth of AI business, especially XPU products, pointing out that the addition of a major client and increased demand from existing clients are key factors that have collectively driven significant growth in the business.
Non-AI business recovery trends and future prospects
The conversation discussed signs of recovery in non-AI businesses after experiencing a low point, including positive performances in areas such as broadband services, storage, and enterprise network upgrades. While overall growth is not yet significant, seasonal improvements have been observed in the wireless and server storage sectors, especially with broadband services showing a continual growth trend. Looking ahead, the continued recovery of non-AI businesses is expected to extend into the next fiscal year, but the specific extent of recovery still needs to closely monitor market dynamics.
The non-AI semiconductor industry is slowly recovering, while the broadband business is performing strongly.
Discussed the slow recovery situation in the non-AI semiconductor industry, pointing out that it may show a U-shaped recovery trend, while the broadband business is experiencing a strong rebound after a sharp decline. Order trends show year-on-year growth in the non-AI semiconductor industry, but at a slower pace than AI-related products, with significant signs of recovery expected in the later stages.
Adjustment of the ratio of quantification and network and customized business in the AI guidance policy for the fiscal year 2026.
Discussed the growth forecast of the AI guidance policy for the fiscal year 2026, pointing out that the growth rate of Ed will accelerate, far exceeding the growth rate of networks and customized businesses, and the proportion of networks and customized businesses is expected to change, with the proportion of network businesses gradually decreasing.
An analysis of the company's $110 billion backlog of orders and growth driven by AI.
The discussion focused on the company's backlog of $110 billion worth of orders, emphasizing the significant growth in AI-related business, with a large proportion in the semiconductor sector. AI-related orders far outweigh non-AI orders. Software business showed stable growth, with non-AI business also achieving double-digit growth, but still lagging behind AI.
AI Revenue Exceeds Expectations: Exploring Trends in Non-Scripted Client Collaboration and Production Planning.
Discussed the performance of AI revenue exceeding expectations and the progress of collaboration with non-script clients. Mentioned that currently four clients have entered the production stage, but remain cautious about specific plans for the future, without providing exact production targets or timelines, and emphasized close collaboration with potential clients to gradually advance their respective project strategies.
Explore potential customer groups and the demand in the custom chip market.
Discussions were held on market segmentation targeting cutting-edge model developers, as well as the selection criteria for potential customer groups, emphasizing the focus on a few players who can invest heavily in computational power, while also expressing a cautious attitude towards acquiring new customers beyond the ones already identified.
Exploring the application and market prospects of Jericho technology in AI cluster expansion.
The conversation revolves around the application of Jericho technology in large-scale GPU clusters, discussing its importance in AI training and inference, as well as how to achieve efficient collaboration between clusters through cross-data center network connections. The maturity and stability of the technology are emphasized, indicating that it has been validated in multiple extremely large-scale users.
Transformation of vSphere cloud infrastructure and adoption by enterprise customers
The progress of migrating the top 10,000 customers from vSphere to vSphere Cloud Foundation (VCF) was discussed, with over 90% of customers reported to have purchased VCF licenses, but comprehensive deployment still requires effort. The value creation of VCF in private cloud deployments and future potential for advanced service sales were emphasized, while the impact of hardware virtualization on reducing enterprise costs and the adoption of VCF by small and medium-sized enterprises is still being observed.
Discuss the impact of changes in revenue structure on gross profit margin and predict future trends.
Discussed the adjustment of revenue structure, especially the impact of decrease in software revenue and increase in wireless and xPU contributions on gross margin, analyzed the trends in semiconductor and software gross margin changes, as well as forecasts for future revenue and gross margin.
Discussing the fourth major customer attribute and the delivery time of a one billion dollar order.
The conversation revolves around the classification of the fourth largest customer, making it difficult to clearly distinguish whether they are a super large-scale or traditional llum manufacturer. Mention is made of a billion-dollar order expected to be deployed by the end of the third quarter of the fiscal year, with the specific timing potentially during the Q3 period.
Ethernet expansion opportunities and XPU optimization strategies in the AI network business.
The expansion potential of Ethernet in AI network business was discussed, emphasizing its advantages in decoupling from GPUs, especially in ultra-large scale systems. It was pointed out that the company optimizes network switches and other components to support Ethernet as a choice for open network protocols, while maintaining tight integration with XPUs to meet customer demand for high-performance networks. It is expected that in the next year, Ethernet will have a larger market in cross-GPU cluster expansion.
Competitive Situation Analysis: Development Prospects of Ethernet Technology and ASIC Market.
Discussed the advantages of Ethernet technology in data centers and AI infrastructure, as well as its competitive position relative to other protocols. Emphasized the maturity and scalability of Ethernet, especially the potential for improvement in reducing latency. Also mentioned the competitive landscape in the ASIC market, pointing out that continuous investment and innovation are key to maintaining a competitive advantage.
The growth of AI data centers and the increasing market share of XPU chips.
The conversation discussed the trend that as the scale of AI data centers expands, the proportion of XPU chips used in existing customers will surpass GPU, becoming the primary computing resource. This is attributed to the continuous optimization of XPU chips in efficiency and performance, as well as the improvement in stability and reliability of the software stack, which has increased customers' confidence and gradually increased the use of XPU in multiple generations of updates. In addition, it also mentioned the industry conferences that the company will participate in and the financial report release plan.
要点回答
Q:What was the main driver of revenue growth in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025?
A:Revenue growth in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 was driven by better-than-expected strength in AI semiconductors.
Q:What does the robust demand for AI and bookings imply for the company's future revenue?
A:The robust demand for AI and strong bookings suggest that the company's future revenue will be bolstered by a record consolidated backlog and accelerated growth in AI semiconductor revenue.
Q:What has been the progress in developing custom AI accelerators and what is the impact on revenue?
A:The demand for custom AI accelerators from script customers is growing as they journey towards compute self-sufficiency at their own pace. This has led to gaining share with these customers and securing over $1 billion of orders of AI racks based on the XPU, resulting in an improved outlook for AI revenue.
Q:What challenges do customers face when scaling AI and how is Broadcom addressing these challenges?
A:Customers face challenges in scaling networking to support the growth of compute classes and bandwidth requirements for substantial memory sharing across GPUs or XPU. Broadcom addresses these challenges with its proprietary and innovative networking solutions, including the Open Ethernet which allows scaling up queue computed nodes for customers using XPU.
Q:What is the forecasted growth for AI semiconductor revenue and non-AI semiconductors?
A:The forecasted growth for AI semiconductor revenue is approximately $6.2 billion, up 66% year on year. For non-AI semiconductors, revenue is expected to grow in low double digits sequentially to approximately $5 billion, driven by seasonality.
Q:What were the highlights of the performance in the infrastructure software segment in the third quarter?
A:The infrastructure software segment had a Q3 revenue of $6.8 billion, which was 17% year over year above the outlook of $6.7 billion. Bookings were strong with a total contract value over $14 billion during Q3, and the segment expects revenue to be approximately $7 billion, up 30% year over year.
Q:How did the financial performance of Broadcom's semiconductor solutions segment look like?
A:Revenue for the semiconductor solutions segment was $9.2 billion, with growth accelerating to 75% year on year, driven by AI. The segment's gross margin was approximately 9% year on year, and semiconductor operating margin was 57%, up 130 basis points year on year and flat compared to the prior quarter.
Q:What was the impact of capital expenditures and free cash flow in the quarter?
A:The company spent 142 million on capital expenditures in the quarter, resulting in free cash flow of 7 billion, which represented 44% of revenue.
Q:What is the projected growth and margin for the semiconductor and infrastructure software revenue in Q4?
A:For Q4, the guidance is for consolidated revenue of 17.4 billion, with a forecast of semiconductor revenue at approximately 8 billion (30% year on year), and infrastructure software revenue at approximately 6.2 billion (15% year on year). The projected Q4 consolidated gross margin is down approximately 10 basis points sequentially.
Q:How has inventory and day sales outstanding changed over the last year?
A:Day sales outstanding were 37 days in the third quarter compared to 32 days a year ago. The company ended the third quarter with inventory of 2.2 billion, an 8% sequential increase, to anticipate revenue growth.
Q:What is the expected adjusted EBITDA margin and non-GAAP tax rate for Q4 and fiscal year 2025?
A:The expected Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin is 67%, and the non-GAAP tax rate for Q4 and fiscal year 2025 is expected to remain at 14%.
Q:What is the CEO's future plan with the company?
A:The CEO has agreed to continue with the company through the end of fiscal year 2023 (Ly), in order to drive further value for shareholders.
Q:What is the recent progress in the AI business, specifically with the xpu?
A:The recent progress in the AI business includes a significant growth in the xpu segment, which is now expected to grow much faster than anticipated a quarter ago, attributed to a substantial increase in demand from a fourth customer with immediate needs.
Q:How should one characterize the non-AI business performance and its recovery from the cycle bottom?
A:The non-AI business is forecasted to be down about 7% year over year in fiscal Q4. While trends have been improving through the year and are expected to be positive in the fourth quarter, the recovery is characterized as relatively slow with green shoots of positivity emerging in areas such as broadband, storage, and enterprise networks. There is hope for a U-shaped recovery in non-AI, possibly by late Q4 or early Q1, with bookings up year on year in excess of 10% and non-AI showing a slight improvement over Q1 figures.
Q:What are the characteristics of the prospects the company engages with?
A:The company is very picky and careful about engaging with prospects. They are looking for customers who are building or investing in platforms that utilize leading large data centers (LDCs) models, specifically mentioning web 7.
Q:Why might Jericho floor be important for the company as it relates to inferencing?
A:The Jericho floor, as mentioned by the company, pertains to the market development related to scaling across multiple data centers. It is important to consider such setups as they may lead to material uplift in revenue, especially as more inferencing activities are conducted in clusters potentially exceeding 100,000 GPUs or XPs due to limitations in power supply and land availability at a single site.
Q:What technology does the company have to manage clusters and what experience do they have with it?
A:The company has existing technology for managing clusters which includes deep buffering and intelligent congestion control. This technology is similar to that used by telecommunications providers like AT&T and Verizon for network routing but adapted for more complex workloads. The company has been shipping this technology to hyperscalers, as the scale and bandwidth requirements for AI training increase, including a new Jericho Ford script with terabits per second capacity.
Q:What is the conversion status of the top 10,000 accounts to the vSphere Cloud Foundation?
A:Over 90% of the top 10,000 accounts have virtually adopted the vSphere Cloud Foundation, though it should be noted that 'adopted' does not necessarily mean fully deployed.
Q:What is the company's approach to assisting large customers with their private cloud deployments?
A:The company's approach is to assist these large customers in converting from perpetual subscriptions to the vSphere Cloud on-premises model. This involves working with them to deploy and operate the private cloud successfully within their data centers. This is the second phase of their BMS story, following the initial phase of converting customers from perpetual to subscription models.
Q:How does the company's strategy of commoditizing underlying hardware benefit enterprises?
A:By commoditizing the underlying hardware in the data center, such as servers, storage, and networking, the company is reducing the cost of investment in hardware for enterprises. This commoditization aligns with the virtualization of data centers and is seen as beneficial for large enterprises.
Q:What is the expected impact of commoditization on the company's semiconductor business and gross margins?
A:The impact of commoditization on the company's semiconductor business is expected to result in lower gross margins for the semiconductor business. This is due to the lower TCO (total cost of ownership) achieved through commoditization and the challenges faced by customers in maintaining operations without specialized services.
Q:How does the company anticipate its gross margins being affected by wireless and TPU contributions?
A:The company expects gross margins to increase with wireless and TPU contributions. While the margins for wireless and TPs are typically lower, the anticipated increase in software revenue will also play a role in affecting the overall gross margins.
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