中国蒙牛乳业有限公司2025年中期业绩发布会
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会议摘要
Mengniu Dairy Industry showcased its progress and plans in independent research and development, product innovation, and green sustainable development at the performance release conference, successfully breaking through the technology of oligosaccharides in breast milk, promoting product nutrition upgrade, and reducing import dependence. Facing economic challenges, Mengniu has accelerated product innovation through technological innovation and category upgrades to meet the needs of all age groups. Although performance declined in the first half of the year, gross profit margin increased, with three-digit growth achieved in segmented markets such as infant formula. Mengniu has committed to achieving zero deforestation by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, dedicated to green sustainable development. The company announced a new stock repurchase plan, expressing confidence in the future and pledging to continue leading the transformation of the dairy industry and enhancing profitability.
会议速览
Yili Group held a mid-term performance conference for 2025, reviewing the financial and business performance in the first half of the year, with the senior management team attending and providing outlook on future development. The conference also included a Q&A session.
The Mengniu management reviewed the mid-term performance in 2025, and although overall revenue and sales volume decreased, gross profit margin and operating profit margin improved. By focusing on operational management and improving operational efficiency, the company achieved triple-digit growth in formats such as liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese. Faced with industry pressure, Mengniu increased investment in technological innovation and digitization, strengthened cost management, and maintained healthy financial indicators.
In the first half of the year, operating cash flow grew by 46% year-on-year to reach 2.8 billion, mainly benefiting from the increase in core net profit and capital expenditure control. The company completed cash dividends for the 20th fiscal year and launched a buyback plan to enhance shareholder returns. Facing industry changes, it implemented a strategy of "one core and two wings", strengthening the core market, accelerating the development of sub-categories, and optimizing category structure. Tetra Pak launched high-end products to meet high-quality demands, while also developing cost-effective products and focusing on precise nutrition new products. It expanded its omni-channel capabilities, deepened cooperation with emerging channels, and accelerated expansion into lower-tier markets.
Yili's low-temperature business focuses on the development of three major sub-segments of nutrition, deliciousness, and functionality, with innovative products from brands such as Nezha 2 and Monster One. The Wuhan factory has received global authoritative certification. The revenue and profit of the ice cream business have grown simultaneously, with Dulan Shengxue entering the Hong Kong and Macao markets. Infant milk powder has achieved good growth by improving product strength through patented formulas.
Yili Group's performance in the first half of the year has seen significant growth, with a focus on developing high-end product lines and the Southeast Asian market, strengthening collaboration with Mordor Intelligence, promoting the positioning of the national cheese brand, accelerating deep processing layout, deepening green and low-carbon development, and seeking opportunities for transformation and upgrading in the face of industry challenges.
The dialogue discussed the current issue of import dependence faced by China's dairy industry, particularly in solid dairy products and high value-added raw materials. It pointed out the advantages of the European and American markets in these areas, as well as emphasizing that the key to the future development of China's dairy industry lies in technological innovation, product innovation, and category upgrades. It is necessary to transition to high value-added professional fields in order to achieve long-term industry development.
Mengniu meets the diversified needs of consumers by launching a zero lactose series, desert organic milk, and other products, while strengthening scientific research and innovation to introduce functional milk, promoting dairy products to develop from scientific consumption to comprehensive necessity, and striving to create high-quality daily essentials to lead the Chinese dairy industry towards a transformation to precise and personalized nutrition intake concepts.
Mengniu has successfully overcome industry challenges through independent research and technological innovation, launching precise nutritional products to meet the needs of all age groups. The brand focuses on sports nutrition, middle-aged and elderly nutrition, infant and child nutrition, and accelerates the layout of deep processing to reduce import dependence, promoting the Chinese dairy industry to ascend to the high-end value chain. Mengniu is committed to its corporate culture, embraces market changes, deepens brand leadership, research and development innovation, digital transformation, and channel upgrades, to provide consumers with high-quality products and services, empower the industry chain, and achieve stable growth to reward investors.
The analyst inquired about the areas in need of strengthening in the execution of the strategy in the first half of the year, as well as the key focus for the second half of the year, paying attention to industry cycle assessments and strategies for balancing expenses and income. At the same time, there were specific questions raised regarding the income, expense ratio, and operating profit margin for the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of cost control and profit levels.
Facing a 6.9% decline in income in the first half of the year and challenges posed by the industry cycle, the company emphasizes the need to increase product innovation and category development in the short term to meet changing consumer and channel demands. In the long term, they will focus on deepening processing layout and upgrading the industrial chain to address industry pain points. It is expected that the full-year income will decline by a mid-to-high single digit percentage, with operating profit margin remaining the same as last year. However, the second half of the year may see a decrease compared to the first half, primarily due to fluctuations in milk prices and adjustments in the price of white milk.
Discussed the reasons for the steady advertising expenses in the first half of the year, attributed to the refinement of cost management and reduction in some expenses, which improved cost efficiency. At the same time, analyzed the impact of the food delivery competition, the launch of fresh tea products, and the coffee market on the B-side business, emphasizing the importance of expanding more market opportunities through organizational layout and product innovation, combined with restaurant scenes, especially in the combination of dairy products and coffee, demonstrating Mengniu's advantages and strategic layout in the B-side market.
The conversation revolved around the reasons for Mengniu's decline in performance in the first half of the year, discussing the impacts of sluggish demand and destocking, and predicting market expectations and competitive landscape under a backdrop of weak recovery next year. The management needs to face the gap between the high expectations of the capital market for Mengniu and the real challenges, analyze changes in industry dynamics and future sales expectations, and emphasize strategies to maintain competitiveness in a weak recovery environment.
Discussed the structural challenges facing the dairy industry and how Mengniu is addressing them through innovation and collaboration, emphasizing the importance of corporate resilience and strategic layout, especially in terms of scenario switching, product innovation, and efficiency improvement. It demonstrates Mengniu's proactive attitude and strategic adjustments during the transformation period.
The conversation focused on the decline in sales volume and price changes of liquid milk for Mengniu in the first half of the year, analyzed the reasons for the decrease in both volume and price, and discussed strategy adjustments for the second half of the year. Management expressed that by optimizing product category structure and reducing expenses, future profitability is expected to improve, with the goal of achieving an annual growth of 30-50 basis points in operating profit margin. Additionally, the company pledged to maintain the dividend ratio unchanged, and plans to continue with stock buybacks to enhance shareholder returns.
Discussed the recovery of liquid milk consumption by Mengniu since the third quarter, pointing out that the decline narrowed in the second quarter, and the trend was maintained in July and August. Meanwhile, Mengniu has implemented multiple innovative measures in green and low-carbon development, including the Wulanchabu Desert Greening Project, national-level green factory construction, and supply chain green commitments. This demonstrates the achievements of the ESG strategy, committing to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, and is committed to the sustainable development of the industry.
要点回答
Q:How is the development situation of the low-temperature business and the southwest business?
A:The low-temperature business has achieved significant results around the three major sub-categories of nutrition, deliciousness, and functionality. Through the launch of high-end delicious daily fresh cheese, immune bottles, and other new products, the business growth space has been expanded. The intelligent production of the low-temperature Wuhan factory has obtained global authoritative certification, making it the largest and most efficient single yogurt factory in the world. The Southwest business has achieved growth of over 20%, and core products such as double protein lactose-free and HM children's nutrition products have effectively expanded the penetration rate of lactose intolerant and precision nutrition populations. At the same time, online and offline advantages channels continue to lead, and strategic cooperation with top coffee and tea beverage brands has been reached, driving overall sales growth.
Q:How are the performance of the ice cream business and infant formula business?
A:In the ice cream business, Mengniu has launched innovative new products to cater to diverse consumer demands, with several new products becoming hot sellers. Among them, the Delan Shengxue brand has entered the market in Hong Kong and Macau, becoming the first high-end ice cream brand to receive a license in Hong Kong while also covering mainstream large supermarket systems. The infant formula business has performed well, with the Ruipengyou brand increasing brand visibility and sales conversion rate through patented formulas and the million-beneficiary campaign, achieving a positive growth trend. Additionally, the Bellamy brand grew by over 20% in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-end product lines particularly in the platinum products and Bellamy Platinum organic A2, accelerating market expansion in Southeast Asia.
Q:What specific measures and achievements does Mengniu have in the cheese sector?
A:This year, we have further strengthened our synergistic cooperation with Mykinda, empowering each other in terms of supply chain and research and development innovation. We have made concerted efforts in both the consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) markets, successfully solidifying the positioning of a national cheese brand and continuously expanding into a variety of scenarios such as leisure snacks, family dining tables, and the catering industry, breaking through the barriers of consumer groups and scenarios. At the same time, in the first half of the year, we have persisted in research and development-driven initiatives, achieving breakthrough progress from technological developments to commercialization in various fields such as professional dairy products and sports nutrition products. The revenue of sports and nutrition brands has shown strong growth, and our independently developed HMO has expanded into more application scenarios, with a series of products revolving around core technologies being launched.
Q:What progress has Mengniu made in deep processing layout and overseas market?
A:This year, we have accelerated our pace in the deep processing layout. Currently, lactoferrin and D90 skimmed milk powder products have entered the debugging and listing stage. In terms of overseas markets, the Aixue brand is not only deeply cultivating the Southeast Asian market, but also accelerating the expansion into other emerging markets. We have successfully established market business structures in Africa and Latin America, taking a key step towards our global strategy.
Q:How does Mengniu build ESG competitiveness and promote sustainable development?
A:We continue to deepen the strategic focus of the revolution, comprehensively promoting various aspects such as dual carbon action, zero deforestation in green packaging, green operations, and green supply chains, with the aim of creating industry-leading ESG competitive advantages and converting this advantage into quantifiable business value, to enhance the cooperative competitiveness of channel customers and B-end customers.
Q:Facing the current dairy industry cycle and pain points, what strategies does Mengniu have to deal with them?
A:Facing the prominent fictitious contradictions, lack of diversification in product categories, and insufficient resilience in the industry chain, Mengniu will leverage the experience of mature global markets, especially the highly diversified solid consumer structure and high value-added raw material supply experience in European and American markets, to accelerate technological innovation, promote product innovation, upgrade product categories, and expand market scenarios, transitioning to high value-added professional fields.
Q:How does Mengniu meet the diversified demands of consumers and changing channels?
A:In the first half of the year, we focused on expanding the value chain, launching high-cost-effective basic milk products, introducing soft milk and lactose-free series for lactose intolerant individuals, and ensuring that high-quality dairy products cover a broader market. At the same time, we have increased efforts in popular science education in collaboration with industry associations, professional institutions, and media, helping consumers establish scientific consumption awareness through scenario-based marketing, making dairy products a necessity for high-quality living.
Q:What is the development history of the Ternsu brand and its latest product innovations?
A:Since its inception, Terun Su has continuously exceeded the limit of protein nutrition, launched strategic new products such as desert organic pure milk, embodying the pursuit of high-quality milk sources and a holistic industry chain mindset. This year, the launch of the Desert Organic Milk from the Sajin Gold Sea, originating from the core production area of the Ulanbuhe Desert, with a protein content of 4.3 grams per serving, reshapes the high-end milk market, demonstrating the deep integration of natural endowment and industrial wisdom.
Q:What is Mengniu's layout in the field of nutrition and health as well as scientific research innovation?
A:Yili strengthens investment in scientific research and innovation, deeply cultivates dairy science, and meets precise and comprehensive nutritional needs. In the first half of the year, it launched functional milks such as probiotic milk and vitamin milk. With the promotion of the Healthy China strategy, Yili gradually realizes precise, personalized, and even custom-designed nutrition intake concepts. It has successfully broken through industry difficulties with its independently developed HMO applications in infant and toddler formulas, liquid milk, and fresh milk products, enhancing precise nutrition levels. In addition, Yili also adheres to the layout of deep processing, reduces dependence on imports, and promotes the whole value chain of the Chinese dairy industry to leap to the high end.
Q:What are the specific reasons for the decline in liquid milk sales in the first half of this year? How much is the decline in industry sales?
A:In the first half of this year, the sales of liquid milk declined by about ten percentage points. Among them, the sales decline monitored by Mengniu itself was X percentage points, while the industry experienced a decline of Y percentage points. We hope to differentiate between these two sets of data to understand the reasons for the decline, whether it is due to weak demand or the impact of channel destocking.
Q:If milk prices show a weak recovery trend next year, what are the expectations for Mengniu in terms of sales?
A:Next year, under the assumption of a weak recovery, Mengniu needs to pay attention to changes in market share for its night (possibly referring to liquid milk) sales expectations. Although the market generally expects a reversal of the cycle, the forecast given at the Modern Dairy Industry Conference is that milk prices may be difficult to reach 4 yuan, and may only reach around 3.5 yuan. In this situation, it is necessary to analyze whether the cost of collecting milk from small dairy companies will truly be significantly higher than that of top companies, and how Mengniu will respond to expectations of growth in Vietnam in such market conditions.
Q:How does Mengniu view and address the cyclical judgment and structural dilemma faced by the current industry?
A:The current industry is facing the issue of overall balance and structural difficulties, such as the mismatch between consumption and production. Companies can enhance their resilience through scenario switching, cost control, and shortening product launch cycles. At the same time, companies need to accelerate layout adjustments, improve industrial chain efficiency, and maintain advantages in areas such as feed costs and scale production. In addition, leading companies solve problems through efficiency improvements and structural upgrades, for example, Mengniu increases balance in the liquid milk field, explores new business models and product innovations to address the challenges brought by industry change.
Q:How to understand and respond to the overall volume challenge and channel dependence faced by the liquid milk business in the current environment?
A:The main challenges facing the liquid milk industry are the overall decrease in demand and changes in market share among top companies. Due to a decrease in sales for the top two companies, there is still inertia pressure in the liquid milk industry this year, partially due to overreliance on traditional expansion in distribution channels. Facing the opportunities and challenges brought about by changing scenarios, Mengniu has swiftly embraced change by launching products that cater to modern consumer trends, leading to double-digit growth in certain business units. At the same time, the company actively seeks profit improvement in the B2B sector by changing business models, increasing product development speed (such as using AI technology), and providing more competitive product solutions to adapt to the market's transformation demands.
Q:Can you please briefly explain the situation regarding the decline in revenue in the first half of the year by 6.9%, and the decrease in volume and ASP during this decline?
A:Income in the first half of the year is declining, with a decrease in quantity of about 4%, and ASP has also decreased, indicating a decrease in both quantity and price. The situation in the second half of the year is similar to the first half, with still a decrease in quantity.
Q:How much room is there for the future profit improvement of Mengniu?
A:We are confident in the future profit improvement of Mengniu, and there is potential for growth. This potential mainly comes from changes in the product category structure, which will lead to an increase in operating profit. For example, although overall revenue has declined, other categories such as cheese, ice cream, fresh milk, etc. have experienced varying degrees of growth, and even low-temperature products have only seen a single-digit decline, which will drive an increase in overall operating profit margin.
Q:How does Mengniu plan to improve its profit-making ability?
A:Improving space is expected to increase profits from other categories within 2-3 years through optimizing category structure. Additionally, there is still room for improvement in SND costs. The company will focus on large-scale sports IP partnerships to ensure effective marketing expenses, and there is still room for lowering sales and management expenses as channels evolve. At the same time, the company will strengthen cost and expense management in the supply chain.
Q:What arrangements does Mengniu have for its dividend policy and stock repurchase plan?
A: Mengniu's dividend ratio will not decrease, although the interim board of directors has decided not to pay dividends for now, but it may resume at the end of the year. In addition, the next round of stock buyback plan has been approved, with a buyback amount of 1 billion yuan, which will be implemented at a normal pace over the next three years.
Q:How has the terminal consumption of liquid milk recovered since the third quarter?
A:Since July, the recovery trend in terminal consumption of liquid milk has narrowed compared to the second quarter, basically maintaining the trend of the second quarter.
Q:What innovative measures and achievements has Mengniu made in green low-carbon development?
A:As an active practitioner of the Two Mountains concept, Mengniu has achieved a number of successes and initiatives in sustainable development and green, low-carbon development. For example, they have created an oasis in the Ulan Buh Desert by planting over 98 million sand plants, and have established an organic industrial chain based on this foundation. There are 37 national-level green factories nationwide, with Yinchuan, Ningxia Province having completed the world's first fully digital factory, which has been recognized as a "lighthouse factory" with energy consumption reduced by 43% compared to traditional factories. In addition, there are several zero-carbon factories, and they have committed to achieving zero deforestation by 2030. By promoting the green development of the entire industry chain, Mengniu is committed to contributing to social and industrial sustainable development and has achieved the highest level of dual-A rating in the industry's ESG rating.

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