Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Ally Financial reported positive Q2 2025 earnings with a focus on transforming into a stronger, more profitable entity through strategic balance sheet remixing, robust dealer relationships, and customer-centric culture. Key highlights include double-digit year-over-year core pre-tax income growth, record application volumes in auto finance, and a 31% return on equity in Corporate Finance. The company also emphasized its solid capital and liquidity positions, reduced interest rate and credit risks, and commitment to delivering best-in-class digital experiences.
会议速览

Ally Financial achieved strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of 99 cents and core pre-tax income reaching $418 million, representing double-digit growth year-over-year. Net interest margin (excluding core original debt instruments) expanded to 3.45%, with asset structure optimization and improved deposit quality laying the foundation for continued margin expansion. The company demonstrated a commitment to sustainable high returns, with a core asset return rate of 13.6%, reaching 10% even when considering AOIC impact. The company is confident in future growth opportunities and is prepared to seize these opportunities.

Ally Bank successfully transformed into a stronger and more profitable institution this quarter through clear strategic focus. Its brand influence continues to deepen, establishing deep trust and loyalty with customers. At the same time, a customer-centric culture has become its significant differentiating advantage. Ally Bank's three core businesses -- dealer financial services, insurance, and corporate financing -- show strong growth potential and returns. Particularly in the dealer financial services sector, the high return and low cost of funds of new fixed-rate retail auto loans, as well as expected annual loss rates, demonstrate its stable business model. Through strategic partnerships, marketing, and community collaborations, the brand further enhances customer trust and loyalty, achieving efficient customer acquisition and deep customer engagement. Additionally, Ally Bank emphasizes its cultural philosophy of "Do It Right," playing a crucial role not only in serving customers but also in supporting employees and community service, thus enhancing employee satisfaction and customer experience.

In this quarter, the automotive finance business has shown strong momentum, with consumer loan initiations reaching $11 billion, benefiting from 3.9 million applications, setting a new record for the highest application volume for the second consecutive quarter. This reflects the advantage of a solid relationship with dealers and business scale, making the company the leading provider of bank auto loans domestically. In the insurance business, the average dealer inventory risk exposure increased by 23% year-on-year, with over 3.9 million active policies, adding over 1 million since the initial public offering. At the same time, the corporate finance department achieved a 31% return on equity, achieving steady growth and attractive returns through long-term partnerships with financial sponsors while maintaining strict risk management. The company is actively exploring organic growth opportunities in existing verticals and considering developing new products and services to increase value-added services.

This digital bank focuses on providing a first-class digital experience and has won multiple awards for customer satisfaction this quarter. They have reached a record high number of customers, reaching 3.4 million, and have achieved net customer growth for 65 consecutive quarters, making them the largest all-digital bank in the country. Although quarterly deposit balance decreased by about $3 billion, it was in line with expectations, mainly due to seasonal tax expenses. The bank expects the deposit balance to remain relatively stable, sufficient to support the balance sheet on the asset side. Deposits account for 90% of total funds, demonstrating the strength and stability of its deposit base. The bank emphasizes that its focused strategy is working, and its market-leading position and brand culture provide strong support.

This conversation provided a detailed introduction to the company's financial performance in the second quarter, emphasizing that despite the sale of the credit card business, the company achieved strong growth in core business through the expansion of profitability of the retail car portfolio, strategic adjustments towards high-yield asset categories, and continuous optimization of deposit pricing. In addition, despite facing macroeconomic uncertainties, the company reduced nonperforming loan rates through improved service strategies and optimized credit portfolios, demonstrating good cost control and credit performance.

This quarter's after-tax expenses amounted to $84 million, with a tax rate of 19%. Due to a recent state law change resulting in the reassessment of tax credits, it is anticipated that the normalized tax rate will be between 22% and 23%. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.04, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.99. The net interest margin (NIM) increased to 4.5%, primarily due to improvements in retail auto loan and lease income, repositioning of securities trades, deposit repricing, and adjustments in the asset portfolio towards higher-yielding assets. While some factors may no longer contribute to further expansion of the NIM, continued margin expansion is expected from repricing of liquidity savings and time deposits. Adjustments in retail and asset portfolios have also led to significant revenue increases. The institution is confident in maintaining a full-year NIM of 3.4% to 3.5% and a sustainable upper-margin in the long term.

The bank's CET 1 ratio reached 9.9%, exceeding the minimum requirement of $4 billion by Stb. Based on the implementation of AOCI throughout all stages, CET 1 was 7.6%, an increase of ED basis points from the previous year. The priorities of capital management remain unchanged, including driving core business growth, increasing CET 1 levels, capital distribution, and share buybacks. In terms of credit quality, the credit quality trends of all loan portfolios are encouraging, with a decrease in the net charge-off rate and a slight decrease in the net charge-off rate of retail auto loans. Additionally, the ratio of loans overdue by more than 30 days improved for the first time in a year, indicating a positive turning point in credit performance. Reserves have seen an increase of 100 basis points in the reserve coverage rate, while the coverage rate for retail auto loans remains unchanged. The bank will continue to monitor credit trends and enhance digital service capabilities to address current uncertainties.

In the recent performance analysis, it was pointed out that the pre-tax income of the automotive finance business had decreased by $112 million, mainly due to a decrease in lease revenue and a decrease in commercial vehicle balances. Although lease remarketing performance has improved, it is expected that its impact will decrease in the future, as the number of end units decreases and is not covered by residual value guarantees. Commercial vehicle balances are affected by industry trends, inventory levels, and tariffs. However, despite low dealer inventory levels, increased sales activities and reduced financing inventory support dealers' health and profitability. In the insurance business, a core pre-tax loss of $2 million was recorded, despite growth in premiums and investment income, losses increased. Inventory risk exposure increased by 23%, but the weather loss ratio remained stable. In the future, the company will focus on using automotive finance relationships to increase earned premiums and drive long-term capital effective revenue growth.

This financial institution reported strong quarterly financial performance, with core pretax income reaching $96 million and an annualized return on equity of 31%. Net financing income was $1.08 billion, an increase of $4 million from the previous quarter but a decrease of $4 million year-on-year, primarily due to lower fee income amortization. The year-end total of high-risk loans was $11 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion compared to the previous year, demonstrating the company's focus on prudent business growth. Additionally, the company did not add any non-performing loans or set aside any specific reserves, indicating stable credit quality. Looking ahead, the company is maintaining its net interest margin guidance range of 3.4% to 3.5% and expects full-year performance to align with guidance across various interest rate scenarios. The range of expected net charge-offs for retail auto loans has narrowed from 2% to 2.15%, resulting in a full-year comprehensive net charge-off expectation of 1.35% to 1.45%. The company also emphasized its strong strategic positioning in capital, liquidity, interest rate risk, and credit risk, including the strategic use of over $4 billion in excess capital and credit risk transfer.

Allied Bank's deposits account for 90% of its interest-bearing liabilities, and 92% of the deposits are insured by FDIC, both of which are high ratios in the industry. The bank has improved its overall profitability and risk management capabilities through efficient and stable deposit strategies, reducing interest rate risk, proactively lowering high-risk consumer credit exposure, strengthening credit performance, and investing in digital payment strategies. Additionally, the bank has achieved controlled cost reductions for seven consecutive quarters, while strategically investing in areas that drive revenue growth to expand operational leverage.

The company is currently focusing on driving profitable growth in the insurance business, while making investments in key areas such as enhancing network security defense, advancing artificial intelligence capabilities, developing innovative products, and improving customer experience. Cost control is a core part of the company's strategy, and it maintains a high level of attention to the use of every shareholder's capital. By taking measures to improve returns and reduce risks, the company believes it has reached a strong strategic position in the public market. In response to market inquiries, the company provided a detailed explanation of the factors affecting the outlook for net interest income (NIM), including securities repositioning, improvements in lease termination performance, accelerated repayments of retail auto loans, and positive impacts on deposit and CD pricing. Despite short-term asset sensitivity, the company is viewed as liability sensitive in the long run, so changes in interest rates will have an impact on performance. Regarding credit risk control, the company stated that improvements have been made, but growth strategies still need to be approached with caution to ensure stable development.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that although the delinquency performance of car loans has improved, especially considering the stability of the value of used cars, the company still maintains a cautious attitude. Before making any adjustments, the company will make decisions based on data and remain vigilant about the uncertainty of the environment, while also committing to transparency in future decisions.

The discussion focuses on the improving credit trends of the automotive finance company, including reduced delinquency rates, stable default rates, and strong used car prices. These factors are working together to boost the company's confidence in the future. In addition, the company is also considering adjusting its loan strategies to achieve higher returns while closely monitoring market data to make real-time lending decisions.

The discussion is focused on the company's capital return strategy, particularly on the improvement of the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio and the impact of organic capital generation on the company's capital return. The company stated that the improvement in its capital ratio is encouraging and is close to the target level, providing confidence for considering stock buybacks. At the same time, the company emphasized that the timing of capital return will not be determined solely based on stress tests, but rather on the fully implemented CET1 ratio and organic capital generation based on strong earnings.

The discussion focused on credit risk management in the car loan business and seasonal loss prediction. Firstly, positive signs in the current loan business were discussed, such as lower delinquency rates and improved asset quality. Subsequently, factors necessary to reduce bad debt rates were explored, including continued improvement in delinquency levels, strong collateral loss rates, and resilient used car prices. Additionally, the discussion mentioned the macro environment, specifically the expected changes in unemployment rates and how the company evaluates and adjusts its risk predictions in response to these changes. Overall, the discussion emphasized the importance of maintaining robust credit management and predicting seasonal losses in the current economic environment.

The discussion focused on the changes in seasonal patterns post-pandemic, particularly regarding the seasonal performance of NCO (non-continuing operating net income) rates and the strategy adjustments for deposit books. It was pointed out that seasonal effects have changed during the pandemic, now being relatively more subdued compared to pre-pandemic times. Additionally, deposit strategies were discussed, including strategies for managing annual deposit balances, transferring rate-sensitive customers, and relying on a more stable and active customer base. Moreover, natural seasonal impacts on deposits were mentioned, such as second-quarter outflows due to tax season, and achieving expected pricing targets after rate adjustments.

The bank transfers the credit risk of some high-quality loans to the capital market through CRT (credit risk transfer) transactions, in order to reduce the risk weight of the loans, effectively improve the CET 1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratio, and reserve capital space for organic growth and stock repurchases. At the same time, the bank believes that its cost of capital is relatively low through this method, and plans to deploy CRT transactions in the latter half of the current year to further increase the CET 1 ratio. Additionally, the bank has conducted two securities repositioning transactions aimed at balancing the reduction of interest rate risk and increasing NIM (Net Interest Margin), and currently believes that the expected effects have been achieved, and is not considering more such transactions in the near future.

Discussed the profit expectations of the insurance business after experiencing the recent reinsurance cycle, pointing out that despite pricing being similar to last year, the insurance business is still considered a solid and stable investment area that can be addressed by increasing deductibles or attachment points It is an important source of non-gaming revenue for the company.

The discussion focuses on the strategies and limitations of asset growth, particularly on the steady growth of car loans, changes in commercial floor plan balances, and the balance between risk management and return. It mentions a cautious attitude towards retail car loans and the pursuit of returns adjusted for risk, while also emphasizing that capital is not a current limitation.

In the conversation, the speaker emphasized the significant achievements in this quarter's performance, attributing it to a focused strategy and strict execution, especially in three key areas: net interest margin, reduction of car loans, and disciplined use of capital and expenses. Despite being cautious about future growth, the speaker expressed satisfaction and optimism about the current performance and future development trajectory. Additionally, the steady retail loan yield was mentioned, demonstrating the company's strong performance in a competitive environment.

In the recent quarter, despite facing intense competition from banks and other participants, the company still achieved record application volume and stable primary yield. Banks have increased their market share in the auto loan market, with some reporting significant growth in their auto business. The company emphasized its differentiated relationships with dealers and positioning in the market, enabling the company to maintain strong primary volume in the prime loan segment while maintaining discipline in business growth.
要点回答
Q:What were the key financial results for the second quarter?
A:In the second quarter, Ally Financial delivered adjusted earnings per share of 99 cents and core pre-tax income of $418 million, with double-digit year-over-year growth in both metrics.
Q:What is the core return on tangible common equity (ROTC)?
A:The core ROTC was 13.6% in the quarter, and after excluding the benefit of other comprehensive income (OCI), the core ROTC was 10%.
Q:What does the company's brand mean to customers?
A:The Ally brand is strongly resonating with customers, building loyalty and trust, and is one of the company's greatest differentiators.
Q:How is the new business expected to perform?
A:The new business, expected to generate a mid-teens return over its life in dealer financial services, includes new fixed-rate retail auto loans at nearly 10% funded by core deposits below 4%, with projected annual losses between 1.6% and 1.8%.
Q:What were the key outcomes from the auto finance business and consumer originations?
A:The auto finance business had consumer originations of $11 billion, driven by 3.9 million applications, marking the highest quarterly application volume for the second consecutive quarter.
Q:How is the insurance business performing?
A:The insurance business saw an average dealer inventory exposure rise by 23% year over year, with 3.9 million active policies outstanding, an increase of over 1 million since the IPO. The company has a 31% return on equity (ROE) and is seeing meaningful opportunity to grow.
Q:What is the company's digital banking performance?
A:The digital banking platform continues to deliver best-in-class digital experiences. With 3.4 million customers and 65 consecutive quarters of net customer growth, it remains the nation's largest all-digital bank.
Q:How is the company's deposit balance trend?
A:Overall, deposit balances were down approximately $3 billion quarter-over-quarter, in line with prior guidance, and the company continues to expect relatively flat balances which is sufficient to support the asset side of the balance sheet.
Q:What is the outlook for controllable expenses and the effective tax rate?
A:Controllable expenses, which exclude insurance losses, commissions, and FDIC fees, are down for the seventh consecutive quarter, and the company does not expect a year-over-year decline in these expenses in the next quarter. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 19%, and the company continues to expect a normalized effective tax rate in the range of 22% to 23%, though discrete items may impact the rate in any given quarter.
Q:What factors are not expected to contribute to additional NIM expansion?
A:Factors that are not expected to contribute to additional NIM expansion include the normalization of lease gains and the execution of securities repositioning transactions which, while contributing to the linked quarter margin expansion, are not expected to contribute to further NIM expansion from the upcoming year.
Q:What are the expected contributors to future margin expansion?
A:Future margin expansion is expected to be driven by continued margin expansion from liquid savings and CD repricing, as well as the retail auto portfolio yield migrating towards the originated yield as the lower yielding back foot rolls down.
Q:What was the impact of the credit card transaction on the company's CET1 ratio?
A:The closing of the credit card transaction on April 1 contributed 45 basis points of capital, which, alongside other factors, resulted in a CET1 ratio of 9.9% and represented more than $4 billion of excess capital above the Stb minimum on a fully phased-in basis for AOCI.
Q:What is the company's current focus regarding capital management?
A:The company's focus regarding capital management is to deploy capital to drive accretive growth in core franchises, continue to move towards higher fully phased-in CET1 levels, and consider capital distributions, including share buybacks at the current valuation.
Q:How did the company's credit quality trends look in the latest quarter?
A:The credit quality trends across all lending portfolios were encouraging. The consolidated net charge-off rate declined by 45 basis points to 110 basis points, and the retail auto net charge-off rate was down 37 basis points sequentially and 6 basis points year over year, reflecting strong performance from recent vintages and continued enhancements to digital servicing capabilities.
Q:What improvements were seen in the retail auto portfolio and delinquency rates?
A:In the latest quarter, improvements were seen in the retail auto portfolio with a 175 basis points decrease in the net charge-off rate and a 45 basis point decline in the consolidated delinquency rate. This is a positive inflection point for credit performance, and the delinquency trends are a leading indicator of charge-offs.
Q:How has the company's reserves position changed?
A:Consolidated coverage increased 100 basis points this quarter while the retail auto coverage rate remained flat at 3.75%. The increase in the consolidated coverage rate was attributed to mix dynamics. Retail auto coverage levels were supported by favorable credit trends, including improved delinquency rates and recent portfolio turnover to higher quality vintages.
Q:What were the results of the insurance business and the company's outlook?
A:The company's insurance business recorded a core pre-tax loss of $2 million due to higher losses offset by strong growth in premiums and investment revenue. The core pre-tax income of $472 million was $112 million lower year over year, primarily driven by lower lease gains and a decline in commercial auto balances. Looking ahead, the focus is on leveraging relationships in auto finance and growing earned premiums over time.
Q:What was the performance of the corporate finance segment?
A:The corporate finance segment had a core pre-tax income of $96 million, which was a strong result and translated to a 31% return on equity. Net financing revenue of $108 million was up $4 million quarter over quarter and down $4 million year over year. End of period Hfi loans ended at $11 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion year over year, reflecting the focus on prudent business growth.
Q:What is the company's updated financial outlook?
A:The company is pleased with the execution in core franchises and financial performance through the first half of the year. The NIM guidance remains at 3.4% to 3.5%, and based on current trends, the path to the upper half of that range is seen. The company is confident that full-year results will align with guidance across various interest rate scenarios.
Q:What is the revised retail auto net charge-off guidance?
A:The retail auto net charge-off guidance has been narrowed by 10 basis points to a range of 2% to 2.15%, resulting in a full-year consolidated net charge-off outlook of 1.35% to 1.45%. The company is encouraged by the strong trend year to date and solidly performing delinquency rates, which provide incremental confidence in near-term portfolio behavior.
Q:What strategic actions have been taken by the company?
A:The company has taken deliberate and decisive actions to fortify its foundation, including solidifying capital and liquidity positions, reducing interest rate and credit risks, maintaining over $4 billion in excess capital, and enhancing the toolkit with credit risk transfers. It also plans to continue using these instruments opportunistically.
Q:What investments has Allied made in its collection strategies?
A:Allied has made significant investments in its collection strategies, introducing targeted digital capabilities that improve customer engagement and payment behaviors.
Q:What has been the impact of Allied's cost discipline and how is it investing for revenue growth?
A:Allied has maintained rigorous cost discipline, with controllable expenses declining for a seventh consecutive quarter. The company continues to invest in areas that drive revenue growth and expand operating leverage.
Q:What is Allied's focus in its insurance business?
A:Allied is focused on driving profitable written premium growth in its insurance business, prioritizing investments across critical areas such as enhancing cyber defenses, advancing AI capabilities, and developing innovative products, tools, and solutions to elevate the customer experience.
Q:What is the current expectation for the second half of the year with respect to NIM and the 4% target?
A:The expectation for the second half of the year with respect to NIM is to have a guide of 345, which includes an Ed basis point headwind from the card sale. Post the sale of the card, Allied is targeting towards the high threes. As for the 4% target, it remains the same, and Allied is confident in achieving it.
Q:How will the sale of the card impact the NIM forecast?
A:The sale of the card will result in an Ed basis point headwind, which is already factored into the NIM forecast guide of 345.
Q:Is there potential for accelerated growth in Allied's credit performance, and what is the current strategy regarding growth?
A:Allied is encouraged by the trajectory and performance of its credit portfolio and is being prudent and data-informed regarding growth. While they are disciplined and cautious about unwinding curtailment, they are transparent about any changes. The potential for accelerated growth will be data-driven and carefully managed.
Q:Are used car prices expected to continue to support credit performance, and how does Allied evaluate the decision to lean into lower S-tier tranches?
A:While used car prices have been a factor in credit performance, Allied is cautious and looks at a broad range of variables, including delinquency rates, flow to loss rates, and used car prices. They are evaluating the decision to lean into lower S-tier tranches carefully and with an eye on overall credit quality and market conditions.
Q:What factors are influencing the company's delinquency rates and how do they expect these factors to affect future delinquencies?
A:The factors influencing the company's delinquency rates include recent servicing strategy changes, vintage rollover to newer vintages, strong used car pricing, and macroeconomic conditions, particularly tariffs. The company expects a continuation of improvement in delinquencies, flow loss, and used car prices to provide confidence for the future.
Q:What approach does the company take when underwriting new originations?
A:The company's approach to underwriting new originations is data-driven, focusing on recent vintage performance and examining granular details on a micro segment basis to open, close, or widen their approach.
Q:What are the company's thoughts on capital return and the significance of the upcoming stress test for this?
A:The company views higher Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) levels and consistent organic capital generation as key factors in determining capital return and share purchases. They anticipate reaching a 10% CET 1 ratio and are not focused on the stress test for timing share repurchases, given their current capital levels. The company looks at fully phased in CET 1 ratio and organic capital generation from earnings strength as indicators for considering share repurchases.
Q:What factors would need to improve in order to decrease the charge-off rate range?
A:To decrease the charge-off rate range, the company would need to see continued improvement in delinquency levels, continued strong photo loss rates, and continued strong used car prices, which should be a continuation of the trends seen so far that year.
Q:How does the company expect seasonality to change post-pandemic and what impact will it have on NCO rates?
A:Post-pandemic, the company expects seasonality to be muted with smaller dips from the first to the second quarter and smaller increases from the second to the back half of the year. This has been factored into the company's models and is reflected in their NCO guidance for the remainder of the year.
Q:What strategy is the company employing with respect to its deposit book, and how does it plan to manage balance growth and pricing?
A:The company is managing deposit balances to be flat for the full year, with potential fluctuations of plus or minus a few billion dollars. They have seen seasonality-driven outflows during the second quarter similar to the prior year. On the pricing side, the company has achieved the targeted 70% beta off of Fed rate cuts, and they feel good about their competitive environment and deposit balances. The company is seeing a shift towards a more engaged customer base, which is positive for deposit stability.
Q:What is the rationale behind using Credit Risk Transfers (CRTs) and how do they plan to utilize this tool?
A:The company uses CRTs to transfer credit risk related to higher credit quality loans within the portfolio to the capital markets, in exchange for lower risk weighting which translates into a CET 1 benefit. They view this as a cost-effective source of capital with a mid single-digit cost of capital. The company plans to deploy CRTs over the back half of the year to further increase their CET 1 ratios.
Q:What was the purpose of the company's previous securities repositioning transactions, and what are their future plans regarding such transactions?
A:The purpose of the company's previous securities repositioning transactions was to balance rate risk and increase NIM. They took out low-hanging fruit in the first quarter and feel good about what they have done. However, they do not anticipate engaging in additional securities repositioning transactions in the near term.
Q:What does the renewal of insurance terms indicate about the profitability of the insurance business over the next year?
A:The renewal terms tightened on the back half of the experience seen in the last reinsurance cycle, with pricing similar to last year but at higher deductibles or attachment points. This has been factored into the company's profitability expectations for the insurance business.
Q:Why is the company bullish on the future of the insurance business?
A:The company is bullish on the insurance business due to its real-time insights into the reinsurance market and the potential for robust and stable returns moving forward. They plan to continue investing in the business, which is accretive to their returns and a valuable source of non-GAAP revenue.
Q:What are the main limitations on growth for the coming quarters?
A:The main limitation on growth for the coming quarters appears to be muted commercial floor plan balances, which have been influenced by tariffs and other activities on the dealer lots. This has impacted the company's guidance. However, capital is not currently a limiting factor, and the focus is on prudent growth with an eye towards credit and return.
Q:How does the company describe its growth strategy in the second quarter?
A:The company's growth strategy in the second quarter aligns with their focus strategy. They experienced an increase in auto originations, growth in corporate finance, reduction in mortgage book runoff, divestiture of the card business, and somewhat muted commercial floor plan balances.
Q:What is the focus of the company's strategy regarding retail loan origination?
A:The company's focus regarding retail loan origination is on growing the retail loan and corporate finance with a strategy of prudent growth. They continue to see strong performance in terms of S tier originations and maintained a high yield on retail auto loans.
Q:What are the three main focuses of the company's strategy, according to the speaker?
A:The three main focuses of the company's strategy are net interest margin, reducing auto loans, and being disciplined with expenses and the use of capital. The company is encouraged by the trajectory and performance in these areas.
Q:What expectations are there regarding the origination yield and competition?
A:The company had a strong origination yield of 9.82% and is pleased with its performance despite increased competition. Even with solid performance by banks in the auto game and stronger origination volumes reported by some banks, the company continues to feel positive about its position in the market, driven by strong application volume and continued focus on S tier originations.

Ally Financial, Inc.
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