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摩根士丹利 (MS.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Morgan Stanley emphasizes its strong global presence, executing complex cross-border transactions and focusing on organic growth through tuck-in acquisitions. The company reports significant financial achievements, including a robust second quarter of 2025 with $16.8 billion in revenue and an 18.2% return on tangible assets. Key strategic areas include asset management growth, wealth management success, and the potential of stablecoins and tokenization. The firm highlights its integrated model's strength and leadership alignment, aiming to generate real returns and invest for growth across its operations.
会议速览
Morgan Stanley's second quarter financial report conference call for the year 2025.
Morgan Stanley held its second quarter 2025 financial results conference call, starting off with a disclaimer on records, risk statements, and non-GAAP measures. The conference was then passed on to the chairman and CEO for further discussions.
Strong performance and strategic execution of Morgan Stanley in the first half of 2025.
In the second quarter of 2025, Morgan Stanley achieved strong performance in the market volatility and trade policy uncertainty, with total revenue reaching $16.8 billion, earnings per share of $2.13, and a tangible asset return rate of 18.2%. In the first half of the year, total revenue was $34.5 billion, earnings per share were $4.73, and tangible asset return rate was 20.6%. The company made significant progress in global client asset management, exceeding a total of $8.2 trillion and moving towards a target of $10 trillion. Wealth management and investment management businesses performed well, with institutional securities revenue of $7.6 billion, benefiting from global footprint and technology investments. The company is actively responding to market volatility, creating value for shareholders through organic growth, capital deployment, and progress in regulatory reform.
Review and analysis of quarterly performance of investment banking business
After experiencing a temporary stagnation, investment banking business regained momentum in the second half of May, benefiting from the rise in asset levels and the rebound in the IPO market. Investment banking revenue reached $1.5 billion. Equity underwriting business was particularly strong, while debt underwriting and advisory services showed steady performance, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. Although M&A activities were affected by market volatility, a healthy product portfolio supported the overall performance. In addition, the equity market business showed strong performance, and fixed income business was driven by macroeconomic product performance, showing overall growth momentum.
Strong performance of wealth management business and asset growth strategy
The wealth management department has performed excellently on key indicators, including strong net asset growth, outstanding fee base flow, and healthy loan growth, achieving revenue of $7.8 billion. Pre-tax profit reached a record $22 billion, with the asset management department's revenue increasing by 11% to $44 billion, mainly benefiting from an improvement in market levels and steady fee base flow. Customers continue to shift assets from advisor-led brokerage accounts to fee-based accounts, while the company continues to invest in education, technology, and product innovation to facilitate asset migration. Trading revenue increased by 17% to $13 billion, with retail client engagement particularly strong during market volatility.
Bank quarterly performance report and future outlook.
In this quarter, the bank's loan balance increased to $169 billion, mainly driven by securities lending, demonstrating progress in deepening customer relationships and providing comprehensive solutions. At the same time, total deposits increased to $383 billion, with net interest income of $1.9 billion remaining stable. The investment management business performed well, with revenue growing by 12% to $1.6 billion and assets under management reaching a record $1.7 trillion. The solidity of the business model and the continued growth of customer assets (reaching $8.2 trillion) lay a solid foundation for the development of the next quarter. Additionally, the company announced an increase in the quarterly dividend, with a dividend of $1 per share, and expects a tax rate of around 24% for the second half of the year.
Bank executives discussing the impact of capital return rate and regulatory environment.
In this discussion, the bank executives elaborated on how banks can enhance capital return through global business integration and effective capital deployment in the current regulatory environment, especially in the areas of investment banking, wealth management, and market business growth strategies. At the same time, they also discussed macroeconomic fluctuations, such as tariff policies, and their impact on businesses and market activities, as well as how to maintain and enhance the profitability of banks in such an environment.
Discussion on Morgan Stanley's Acquisition Strategy and Organic Growth Opportunities.
Morgan Stanley emphasizes that its acquisition strategy will focus on complementary or small transactions, aimed at enhancing its core strategy of providing clients with services for raising, managing, and distributing capital. Despite having a track record of integration, the company does not blindly pursue acquisitions, but rather places importance on internal organic growth opportunities, especially in areas such as wealth management, investment management, and investment banking. The company stated that they are actively considering 'tuck in' acquisition opportunities that can increase operational leverage without diluting their strategic execution.
A detailed discussion on the company's investment strategy and the effectiveness of recruiting new advisors.
The discussion provided a detailed presentation of the company's current investment strategy and asset flow situation, with a particular emphasis on steady growth amidst asset price fluctuations, as well as continuous improvement in efficiency ratios and investment returns. At the same time, the recruitment background and effectiveness of new consultants were thoroughly explored, highlighting the growth of consultant strength seen across all three channels, as well as new asset flows from the workplace, demonstrating that the company's investments in marketing and business development are paying off. Additionally, strong performance in self-directed channels and fee-based flows were mentioned, overall indicating the comprehensive success of the company's strategy.
Morgan Stanley explores the future development of stablecoins and the market trading environment.
The discussion mainly focuses on the potential impact of stablecoin legislation and changes in market structure on Morgan Stanley, as well as how to evaluate market activity and institutional realignment in the face of tariffs and geopolitical factors in the second quarter. At the same time, efforts to increase market share, brand brokerage business, and the evolution of the market background were also discussed.
Global Investment Strategy and Market Share Enhancement
The conversation emphasized the importance of investing and expanding markets globally, specifically mentioning significant progress made in the EMEA and Asian regions. Through continued investment in different regions, market share has increased and customer repositioning has been achieved, not only in institutional business but also in retail business. Additionally, the discussion pointed out the increase in liquidity flows to the market and capital expenditure, indicating efforts to rebalance and reposition the market throughout the quarter.
The operational costs and competitive advantages of global securities business.
The conversation primarily discussed the increasing costs of operating securities businesses globally and how to maintain competitiveness by achieving operational leverage and market returns. It particularly mentioned the significant achievements in the securities business in Europe and Asia, as well as the continued growth and stable performance of fixed income business. Additionally, it emphasized the importance of integrating internal culture and fully utilizing resources within the company to enhance overall competitiveness.
Discussion on capital deployment and asset management opportunities.
In the discussion, the importance of asset management and capital deployment was mentioned, especially why asset management is not included in potential capital deployment. In addition, the significant achievements in the field of investment management were emphasized, including a large amount of capital inflow and Parametric's continued growth, as well as the numerous acquisition opportunities in the asset management field. It was pointed out in the discussion that cautious use of capital and the expectation for growth in the asset management business, while mentioning past experiences with investment management mergers.
Exploring the impact of Morgan Stanley's strategies on interest rate environments
The dialogue mainly revolves around Morgan Stanley's strategic direction and business development, emphasizing the importance of strategies that align with the company's culture and client needs. At the same time, it discusses how the company can respond to customer demands in the current interest rate environment by increasing capital and resources, as well as the potential changes in loan balances and cash flows the company may face when interest rates decline.
Transformation of banking business models and changes in regulatory environment.
The conversation mainly discussed the trend of banks lending more through their capital markets departments, emphasizing the impact of regulatory changes on this trend. The discussion pointed out that while banks used to directly lend to commercial clients in the past, they now do so more through non-bank financial entities, in part due to regulatory restrictions. With the possible normalization of the regulatory environment, large, well-capitalized global investment banks will have the opportunity to regain their share in core corporate products and mid-market spaces. At the same time, private credit products have become institutionalized and continue to grow, playing a role in the boutique space and sponsor community. The discussion also emphasized the core role of large financial institutions in corporate and sponsor capital markets, including financing, structuring, and distribution functions. As the regulatory environment evolves, banks will focus more on risk architecture, aiming for stable growth and a tangible asset return of 20%.
Exploring the strategic focus on bank deposits and organic growth opportunities.
This conversation mainly discussed the importance and priority of bank deposits in the company's strategic plan, as well as how to further optimize business through organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Participants emphasized the need for sustained growth and a diverse deposit base to support the continuous growth of qualified assets. Additionally, the discussion also touched on how to leverage existing strategies and resources to enhance market share and business capabilities through continuous investments and selectively exploring inorganic growth opportunities.
要点回答
Q:What were the firm's revenue, EPS, and ROTAC for the first half of 2025?
A:For the first half of 2025, Morgan Stanley's revenue was $34.5 billion, with an EPS of $4.73 and a return on tangible assets (ROTAC) of 20.6%.
Q:How did Morgan Stanley's investments in talent, global footprint, and technology contribute to its performance?
A:Morgan Stanley's investments in talent, global footprint, and technology helped to capture client flow opportunities and activity levels, which in turn supported the firm's strong performance across its businesses.
Q:What were the results for the Institutional Securities business in the second quarter?
A:The Institutional Securities business generated revenues of $7.6 billion in the second quarter, supported by the firm's equity and fixed income markets franchises, with period-over-period strength in Asia and EMEA.
Q:How did Investment Banking activity evolve throughout the second quarter?
A:Investment Banking activity initially paused in April but recovered alongside rising asset levels and a rebound in IPO performance. The business ended the quarter with strength, posting revenues of $1.5 billion, driven by growth in equity underwriting, and a healthy M&A backlog.
Q:What was the trend in equity underwriting and fixed income underwriting revenues in the second quarter?
A:Equity underwriting revenues grew meaningfully, supported by a rebound in activity and issuance across products. Fixed income underwriting revenues declined primarily due to lower non-investment grade issuance.
Q:How did Prime brokerage and cash results perform in the second quarter?
A:Prime brokerage revenues were especially strong, with record average client balances and driving the strength of financing revenues. Cash results increased on higher volumes across regions, particularly in EMEA. Fixed income revenues were $2.2 billion, with macro results driven by an increase in client hedging and other factors.
Q:What factors contributed to the comparison period's higher net interest income and fees on corporate loans?
A:The comparison period's higher net interest income and fees on corporate loans were benefited by portfolio growth and a moderately weaker macroeconomic outlook.
Q:What were the key performance indicators for the wealth management business?
A:The key performance indicators for the wealth management business included strong net new assets, exceptional fee-based flows, and healthy lending growth, which reinforced the franchise's differentiation.
Q:What were the main components of the second quarter's pre-tax profit and margin?
A:The second quarter's pre-tax profit was a record at $2.2 billion with a pretax margin of 28.3%, impacted by DCP which negatively affected the margin by approximately 70 basis points.
Q:How did asset management revenues grow, and what influenced this growth?
A:Asset management revenues grew 11% versus the prior year, driven by higher market levels and the cumulative impact of robust fee-based flows in the quarter. Fee-based flows were very strong, marking a record excluding previous asset acquisitions.
Q:What were the results of the transactional revenues and how did they compare to the prior year?
A:Transactional revenues were $1.3 billion, an increase of 17% versus the last year, with especially strong retail engagement in April due to elevated market volatility.
Q:What changes occurred in bank loan balances and household lending penetration?
A:Bank loan balances increased sequentially to $169 billion, primarily driven by growth in securities lending. Household lending penetration grew across the advisor-led channel with greater engagement from advisors and clients.
Q:What is the expectation for net interest income (NII) in the upcoming third quarter?
A:NII is expected to remain around recent levels in the third quarter, subject to changes in the policy rate and law with $6.5 trillion of client asset AUM benefiting from years of sustained investment.
Q:What were the investment management business's revenues and AUM for the quarter?
A:The investment management business's revenues were $1.6 billion, an increase of 12% year over year, with total AUM reaching a record at $1.7 trillion. The franchise generated positive long-term net flows of $11 billion.
Q:How did the company's total assets and standardized CET1 ratio change?
A:Total assets increased from $54 trillion to $1.4 trillion, with a standardized CET1 ratio standing at 15%. Standardized RWA increased sequentially by $523 billion.
Q:What is the dividend payment and the projected quarterly tax rate for the remainder of the year?
A:The quarterly dividend per share is $1.00 after a 7.5 cents increase. The quarterly tax rate was 22.7%, and it is expected to be approximately 24% in the second half of the year.
Q:What is the current status of the investment banking pipelines and how do they reflect on the company's future?
A:The investment banking pipelines are healthy, dialogues are active, and markets have proven resilient. This reflects the company's strong momentum and its ability to gather assets, with total client assets now reaching $8.2 trillion.
Q:What are the areas of focus for the company mentioned in the speech?
A:The areas of focus for the company are expanding lending capabilities in a prudent way, particularly in relation to the growing number of relationships, continuing to supply clients with additional products, and focusing on the markets business, specifically in financing durable businesses where the company can act as a leader in prime brokerage and secured lending.
Q:What factors are considered when evaluating potential organic and inorganic growth opportunities?
A:When evaluating potential opportunities, the company considers the bar for integration to be high, taking into account the past record of successful integration and the humility around what it takes to make integrations work. The focus is on acquisitions that align with the core strategy and directly contribute to growing the business in wealth, investment management, and the investment bank.
Q:What does the speaker indicate about the firm's organic growth opportunities?
A:The speaker indicates that the firm's organic growth opportunities are exemplified by the operating leverage demonstrated in the first half. As the environment stabilizes, areas like the A business and underwriting visits are expected to pick up, which will further afford the firm additional operating leverage.
Q:What are the priorities mentioned regarding dividends and buybacks?
A:The priorities mentioned regarding dividends include their paramount importance and the intention to continue prioritizing them for their durability and as a key signpost of the core strategy. The buyback strategy is to maintain a $4 billion annual pace, using it tactically as needed.
Q:How does the speaker view the recent pick-up in M&A activity?
A:The speaker views the recent pick-up in M&A activity as positive, noting that boardrooms have become more tolerant of macro volatility. There is an expectation that the stabilization of tariffs and the continuation of regulatory reform will support deal activity going forward.
Q:What is the status of strategic activity and how does it impact the company's growth?
A:Strategic activity has been described as picking up, with strong sponsorship from winners in the industry. The company is seeing real interest from both corporates and strategics on the buy side, and the robustness of the IPO market suggests a strong value chain. This is expected to contribute to a strong second half of the year.
Q:What is the company's stance on potential inorganic growth through acquisitions?
A:The company's stance on potential inorganic growth through acquisitions is cautious, with a focus on opportunities that fit within the strategy of raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients. The company has a record of successful integration but is not looking to make acquisitions just for the sake of it.
Q:How does the company view its current organic growth opportunities?
A:The company views its current organic growth opportunities as very promising, with signs of growth across wealth management and the investment banking franchise. The investment banking team is well-positioned to execute complex cross-border transactions, and the company is on track to achieve its strategic goals despite asset price movements.
Q:What is the recruitment outlook for new advisors?
A:The recruitment outlook for new advisors is positive, with interest from those attracted to the company's investment focus. The company is seeing strength across all channels for new advisor recruitment, which is considered a key area of strength for Nna.
Q:What percentage of net new assets is coming from workplace originations?
A:70% of the flows that come from workplaces are net new assets to the firm.
Q:What impact has the investment in marketing and business development had?
A:The investment in marketing and business development, as well as the introduction of new tools like Etrade Pro, has resulted in a payoff across all channels.
Q:What is Morgan Stanley's view on the potential of stablecoins and tokenization?
A:Morgan Stanley is actively discussing the potential uses for their client base but it's still early to tell how it will play in their current business versus competitors. They are closely monitoring the landscape and technological advancements such as AI, crypto, and others that could be part of an ecosystem.
Q:What efforts are being made to improve market share and how is the trading environment evolving?
A:Morgan Stanley has been investing in the global franchise, which is reflected in the results with client repositioning and market share improvements across businesses. They have also been capturing repositioning and rebalancing activities across the institutional and retail businesses.
Q:How is Morgan Stanley performing in the trading environment?
A:Morgan Stanley had a record quarter in equities and experienced an extraordinary half-year in Asia, with growth across the firm's regions and businesses. They are generating operating leverage and durable results that align with the firm's strategies presented to clients.
Q:What is the significance of Morgan Stanley being an integrated firm?
A:The integrated firm strategy is significant because it involves knitting clients across various divisions worldwide to provide access to capital, ideas, financing, and strategy. This strategy is dependent on a top-tier culture that deploys capital and adds resourcing based on the benefit to the franchise as a whole.
Q:Why is asset management not included in the potential deployment of capital?
A:Asset management is not included in the potential deployment of capital primarily because there are significant opportunities in the asset management space, given its fragmentation and the performance of companies within it, such as the speaker's company which has experienced outstanding investment management numbers with 11 billion of inflows and continued growth of parametric. It is considered a key area for potential deployment.
Q:What are the criteria for potential acquisitions in investment management?
A:The criteria for potential acquisitions in investment management include ensuring they fit with Morgan Stanley's culture, align with the client perspective, and can generate incremental operating leverage. Such acquisitions could provide additional assets under management (AUM), but the priority is on organic growth and the firm's immediate operational and management priorities.
Q:How should lower interest rates be factored into the assessment of net interest income (NII)?
A:In a lower rate environment, it is expected that there will be inflows of cash from sweeping activities. Over time, lower rates will lead to increases in lending balances, which is a positive factor for the business. The impact of lower rates on NII will also be influenced by the policy rate. Generally, when interest rates decrease, we see an increase in the balances of cash swept into interest-bearing accounts.
Q:What is the role of the Capital Markets Division in lending, and how does it compare to direct lending to commercial customers?
A:The Capital Markets Division is involved in lending, but there is a trend of banks increasingly lending to non-bank financial firms rather than directly to traditional commercial customers. The extent of lending through the Capital Markets Division as a percentage of total lending is not clearly quantified, but it is seen as part of a broader shift influenced by regulatory changes. The division's lending is expected to adapt to changes in the regulatory environment and to play a central role in governing corporate and sponsor capital markets, acting as a financier and distribution engine.
Q:How is the lending landscape changing due to regulatory reform?
A:The lending landscape is changing due to regulatory reform as banks, particularly the large, well-capitalized, and global ones, may see limitations in lending revert to more normal levels. This could allow them to reclaim some of the market share previously lost to private lending groups. However, the role of private credit and boutique firms in specific segments of the market, such as the sponsor community, will continue. With the normalization of the regulatory environment, these firms are expected to benefit from increased opportunities in core lending products.
Q:What is the strategy for competing for additional debt with large, sophisticated, and high net worth individuals?
A:The strategy involves competing for additional debt with key top ecosystem players where notional limits from a decade ago are not a concern.
Q:Why is the focus on the cadence of earnings and consistent lending to specific clients?
A:The focus on the cadence of earnings and consistent lending to specific clients is to contribute to the broader mosaic of achieving 20% returns on tangible assets on an ongoing basis.
Q:What role does deposit growth play in the company's strategy?
A:Deposit growth is a strategic objective for the company as it supports the growth of eligible assets that can be placed on the bank. The company has been focusing on diversifying its deposit base to ensure it can support ongoing growth.
Q:How does the company view inorganic growth opportunities in relation to its current strategy?
A:The company views inorganic growth opportunities as complementary to its current strategy. It is focusing on growing its wealth management, private credit, and liquidity businesses organically. However, if inorganic opportunities arise that are additive to its capabilities, the company will consider those as well. The priority remains on continuing to invest in and grow its core businesses rather than pursuing inorganic growth for its own sake.
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