高盛集团 (GS.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Goldman Sachs reported robust Q2 2025 earnings with a focus on client-centric activities, organic growth, and AI-driven efficiency. The firm emphasized strategic priorities in investment banking, financing, and asset management, while maintaining a strong capital buffer for unexpected activities and regulatory changes. Notable advancements include increased M&A volumes, record assets under supervision, and significant investments in AI to enhance operations and productivity.
会议速览

Goldman Sachs Group achieved strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, with a net income of $14.6 billion, earnings per share of $10.91, and a return on investment of 12.8%. Despite changing market dynamics, Goldman Sachs has maintained its focus on customer service, demonstrating its strong global customer franchise. The investment banking business remains in a leading position, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, and activity in the capital markets is accelerating. Additionally, the financing business achieved record revenues, reflecting Goldman Sachs' success in executing strategic priorities, especially in growing financing and maximizing market share. The asset management and wealth management businesses also performed well. These results reflect Goldman Sachs' exceptional talent, collaborative culture, and differentiated business portfolio.

Goldman Sachs Group showed strong financial performance in the second quarter, achieving a net income of $14.6 billion, earnings per share of $10.91, and a return on equity of 12.8%. Particularly, significant growth was achieved in areas such as global banking and markets, wealth management, and alternative investments, including record $1.7 trillion in client assets under management and $3.3 trillion in total assets under supervision. Goldman Sachs also emphasized progress in the field of artificial intelligence, enhancing work efficiency and software development capabilities through the introduction of AI tools and collaborations. Additionally, the company announced a 33% increase in quarterly dividends, reflecting confidence in future development and shareholder returns. In the face of a complex global environment, Goldman Sachs stated that they will continue to focus on risk management and strategic investments to support clients and create value for shareholders.

In the second quarter, the financial institution's total alternative asset under management reached $35 billion, driving $589 million in management and other fees. Third-party alternative asset fundraising totaled $18 billion, bringing the year-to-date fundraising total to $37 billion. Net interest income was $3.1 billion, with a total loan portfolio of $217 billion. In terms of capital management, $4 billion was returned to shareholders this quarter, including $9.57 billion in common stock dividends and $3 billion in stock repurchase. The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio is 14.5%, compared to the new CET1 requirement of 10.9%, demonstrating the company's excess capital and active pursuit of capital distribution avenues.

The discussion focused on how banks can effectively utilize available capital to generate value-added returns through client business activities and market opportunities, such as M&A and financing activities. At the same time, banks commit to gradually increasing dividends and continuously seeking ways to return capital based on business sustainability and enhanced confidence in growth.

In the current environment, although asset prices are high, credit markets are improving, and the IPO market is accelerating, the environment for private equity assets has not become very favorable. Despite facing challenges, the company is still committed to gradually reducing its historical principal investments, with progress made since the second quarter, reducing the investment scale to approximately $8 billion. With the continuous improvement of market conditions, more opportunities to reduce such investments are expected to be provided. At the same time, the company has clearly stated that even though the remaining investment portfolio is relatively small, it is committed to actively reducing it, although it may face more challenging investments in the final stages.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that despite the unpredictable nature of environmental changes, the company plans to maintain a buffer of approximately 50 to 100 basis points above the new and applicable regulatory minimum requirements for the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CT1) to address unexpected client activities and regulatory changes. This strategy aims to maintain flexibility and reserves.

The discussion focused on opportunities for capital deployment, particularly considerations for organic and inorganic acquisitions in the field of asset wealth management, as well as their high barriers to entry. In addition, a thorough discussion of the decision-making process regarding dividends was also conducted, including factors to consider and future expectations.

The company promises to continuously and steadily increase dividends. Although they do not expect a growth rate of 33% every year, there is room to further increase dividends with the growth of the company's performance and the optimization of the capital system. In addition, the company is actively investing in AI technology to automate processes, improve efficiency and productivity, which not only helps reduce costs but also increases investment flexibility, driving customer business growth. Cooperation with Cognition Labs accelerates software development, enhances productivity and revenue potential, and brings significant operational efficiency. The widespread application of AI is expected to bring profit growth and efficiency improvement to the entire market.

Despite global uncertainties, Goldman Sachs states that M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activities have significantly increased this quarter, reflecting the company's strengthened confidence in scale and industry consolidation. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the growth in revenue and endorsement growth in advisory services are clear signs of increased M&A activity, while also pointing out CEOs' focus on scale and industry consolidation globally. Goldman Sachs believes that in times of uncertainty, clients are more inclined to seek their professional advice to seize potential market opportunities.

Goldman Sachs Group is currently focusing on developing its asset wealth management business and considering accelerating growth and scaling in this field through acquisitions. Currently, their asset management platform has reached a size of $3.3 trillion, although it is already large and diversified, there are still opportunities for acceleration and expansion. Goldman Sachs has stated that they are looking for suitable opportunities to further enhance their positioning and scale in their asset management platform.

In the dialogue, senior bank executives discussed the bank's strategy to reduce alternative investments on the balance sheet after the Federal Reserve adjusted capital handling rules. Despite the advantages of alternative investments in capital handling changes, the bank still adheres to its strategic approach of using the balance sheet to support asset management and co-investment with clients, rather than operating a full-scale alternative investment platform. The discussion also touched upon the bank's long-term strategy for reducing Risk Weighted Assets (RWA) density, as well as the progress and sustainability of improving the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Senior bank executives emphasized the continuity of the strategy and commitment to the co-investment strategy with clients, while also expressing expectations for transparency in the capital handling process.

The dialogue emphasized the importance of transparency in the planning and capital allocation process, pointing out that the current lack of transparency is detrimental to the system. Strategically, a less risk-weighted asset (RWA) intensive strategy is being implemented and flexibility is being maintained to adapt to future changes in capital rules, with more clarity on capital rules expected in the next 12 months.

Through discussion, the importance of utilizing AI technology in customer coverage and service strategies was emphasized, as well as how to increase market share by enhancing customer connectivity and expanding financing business. At the same time, structural changes in coverage strategies and a deeper understanding of customer needs were mentioned, as well as how to apply these strategies to a wider customer base to gain a larger market share.

Senior executives at Goldman Sachs emphasized the importance of customer relationships and capital management in discussions, mentioning the broader customer base beyond the 150 key clients, as well as the continued focus on improving customer relationships and market share. At the same time, discussions also touched upon digital transformation, particularly regarding stablecoins and financial market structures, indicating expectations for regulatory clarity and readiness to use digitalization to create new opportunities. Additionally, the issue of capital buffers was discussed, expressing expectations for increased regulatory transparency and capital management strategies, as well as plans to optimize capital structure through improvements in customer relationships and capital returns.

Discussed were whether the market business can maintain its current strong performance if investment banking activities such as mergers and acquisitions and issuance accelerate, as well as how to capitalize on opportunities for alternative financing in more mainstream retail wealth channels, particularly in the context of incorporating alternative assets into potential retirement accounts.

Bank executives emphasized the importance of building a sustainable revenue model to reduce volatility during discussions, and confirmed the reasonableness of the mid-term target of 15% to 17% return on equity (ROE). They stated that the current regulatory and macroeconomic environment has increased confidence in achieving this goal. Growth is mainly driven by the continuous optimization of asset wealth management businesses and the outstanding performance of global banking sector markets, both of which have collectively contributed to the overall increase in return on equity. Additionally, the excess capital held by the bank provides them with additional flexibility, allowing them to both facilitate transactions with clients and increase returns by reducing the capital base, thus accelerating the achievement of strategic objectives.

During the meeting, after SB raised a question, the organizer expressed gratitude and asked if Chris had any other questions. Chris replied that he only needed to express gratitude.

JPMorgan Chase expressed confidence in the sustainability of its revenue and profitability during the discussion, emphasizing the company's commitment to establishing a more sustainable and continuously growing dividend strategy. At the same time, the company also discussed its strong performance in its advisory business, noting that its advisory business has been a leader for 25 consecutive years and has far surpassed competitors in revenue and expenses this quarter, demonstrating the business's outstanding performance and sustained competitiveness.

During the performance conference call for the second quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasized its relatively strong performance in the quarter and stated that it will continue to execute its strategy to maintain its leadership position. It was mentioned during the discussion that Goldman Sachs holds high standards for any form of inorganic growth, emphasizing the need to align with strategic goals, cultural fit, and financial analysis. Additionally, despite facing numerous uncertainties and risks, Goldman Sachs stated that it will continue to remain vigilant and focus on risk management to address the fluctuations in global markets.
要点回答
Q:What were the financial results of Goldman Sachs in the second quarter of 2025?
A:Goldman Sachs reported net revenues of $14.6 billion, earnings per share of $10.91, and an return on equity (RoE) of 12.8% in the second quarter of 2025. For the first half of the year, the RoE was 14.8%.
Q:How has Goldman Sachs' global client franchise performed?
A:Goldman Sachs' global client franchise has never been stronger, with a strong performance in investment banking, financing, risk and remediation, and asset and wealth management. The firm has maintained a leading position, particularly in M&A and has assisted clients in navigating periods of heightened uncertainty.
Q:What were the main drivers for the strong performance in investment banking?
A:The strong performance in investment banking was driven by resilience in the deal-making environment, with year-over-year increases in announced M&A volumes and by momentum with strategic and sponsored clients, exemplified by major acquisitions like the $12 billion portfolio acquisition from LS Power and Salesforce's $8 billion acquisition of Informatica.
Q:How did client engagement and backlog trends contribute to Goldman Sachs' performance?
A:Client engagement was elevated and contributed to a rise in the backlog for a fifth consecutive quarter, particularly driven by advisory services. The advisory backlog saw significant growth compared to the 2024 year-end levels.
Q:What were the firm's results in financing businesses and strategic priorities?
A:The firm's financing businesses set a revenue record, and the firm achieved global top-three rankings in driving growth in financing and increasing wallet share, which contributed to resilience in asset and wealth management. Successful multi-year execution across strategic priorities, such as growth in financing and risk management, further balanced the firm's performance.
Q:What is the firm's position in terms of capital sharing globally?
A:The firm now ranks in the top three globally for capital sharing, up from 77 in 2019, contributing to the firm's demonstrated resilience in diversified businesses in asset and wealth management.
Q:What is the significance of the results in the firm's stress test performance?
A:The firm's performance in the stress test showed a significant improvement in the expected stress capital buffer to 3.4%, providing increased capital flexibility to support client needs and further grow businesses. This result reflects the firm's strategic efforts to strengthen and grow its global client franchise.
Q:What is the firm's stance on regulatory and capital regime changes?
A:The firm is encouraged by recent regulatory proposals for a holistic review of the capital regime and supports the recalibration of the enhanced SLR to its intended purpose. A balanced regulatory backdrop is essential for a financially efficient system to support economic growth.
Q:What are the potential risks to the global economy and market backdrop?
A:Potential risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, uncertain impact of trade agreements, and the unknown effect of higher tariffs on growth. Despite these risks, the firm remains focused on risk discipline and leveraging its resources to assist clients in navigating the evolving operating environment.
Q:What were the revenue figures for Asset and wealth management, and how did they change year over year?
A:Asset and wealth management revenues were $3.8 billion, up 11% year over year to $2.8 billion due to higher average assets under supervision and incentive fees of $102 million. Private banking and lending revenues were $789 million, up 12% year over year on higher results from lending and deposits related to ultra high net worth clients.
Q:How did the provision for credit losses and total quarterly operating expenses change, and what was the effective tax rate?
A:The provision for credit losses was $384 million, primarily reflecting charge-offs in the credit card portfolio and modest levels of growth across both the card and wholesale portfolios. Total quarterly operating expenses were $9.2 billion, with a year-to-date compensation ratio of 33%, inclusive of roughly $140 million in severance costs. Noncompensation expenses of $4.6 billion included approximately $100 million of CRR impairments and rose 6% year over year. The effective tax rate for the first half of 2025 was 20.2%, and for the full year, it was expected to be approximately 22%.
Q:What is the new CET1 requirement as of October 1, and what is the multi-year share repurchase program authorized by the Board?
A:The new CET1 requirement as of October 1 was 10.9%. The Board authorized a multi-year share repurchase program of up to $40 billion, providing increased capital management flexibility.
Q:How does the firm plan to deploy excess capital and what is the focus after deployment?
A:The firm plans to deploy excess capital towards its client franchise to produce accretive returns and to support client activity, particularly focusing on M&A and financing. After deployment, the firm will continue to look for ways to return capital, including growing sustainably and meaningfully increasing the dividend as a reflection of confidence in the durability of the business.
Q:What is holding up the monetization of historical principal investments in a good banking backdrop?
A:The challenge in monetizing historical principal investments is due to a non-robust environment for harvesting, particularly for private equity type portfolio assets, despite a good banking backdrop with elevated asset prices and improving credit markets.
Q:What is the target CT1 ratio and how does it affect the firm's strategy?
A:The target CT1 ratio is expected to be approximately 50 to 100 basis points buffer versus a new and applicable regulatory minimum, which provides reasonable flexibility to have capacity and reserve to support unexpected client activity and to adjust to any changes across regulatory outcomes over the cycles.
Q:Does the firm consider inorganic acquisitions as a use of capital, and what is the likelihood of such acquisitions?
A:The firm is always looking for ways to accelerate its franchise, including思考inorganic acquisitions to do so. However, the bar to undertake significant acquisitions is very high, and opportunities are generally not available or for sale.
Q:What factors influenced the decision to increase the dividend, and how should the potential for future increases be considered?
A:The decision to increase the dividend was based on the firm's ability to consistently raise the dividend and create a steady increase pattern, unlike some competitors. The increase was significant and reflects the company's financial strength and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Q:What factors contributed to the decision to increase the dividend?
A:The decision to increase the dividend was based on the firm's growth, the improved durability of revenue, the business mix, execution, and the confidence in the firm's ability to grow. The focus was on maintaining a steady dividend growth while considering metrics like payout ratio, yield, and capital return plan.
Q:What are the firm's expectations regarding AI's impact on efficiency and revenue growth?
A:The firm expects AI to significantly improve efficiency and create flexibility for investments, leading to more growth in client businesses. This will result in productivity gains and operating efficiencies, which could potentially boost revenue and aid in scaling the business. The firm is excited about these prospects and the partnership with Cognition Labs to accelerate software development capabilities.
Q:What indicators suggest an increase in M&A activity?
A:Revenue growth, increased dialogue, and a variety of reasons such as regulatory confidence in significant scaled industry consolidation have indicated an increase in M&A activity. The firm has observed a rise in new business opportunities and backlog, which suggests that the current period could be one of higher M&A activity and that clients are engaging in transactions despite global uncertainty.
Q:How is the firm addressing the potential impact of uncertainty on M&A activity?
A:The firm addresses the impact of uncertainty on M&A by focusing on its leadership in advising major companies on their most consequential transactions. The firm believes that clients see opportunities amidst uncertainty and is engaged in helping them execute deals.
Q:What is Goldman Sachs' current strategy regarding acquisitions?
A:Goldman Sachs' strategy regarding acquisitions focuses on accelerating growth in its asset management franchise. There are opportunities to scale and grow the platform, and the firm will consider these opportunities as they arise.
Q:How has the Fed's decision affected Goldman Sachs' strategy toward alternative investments?
A:The Fed's decision to apply more favorable treatment to alternative investments has reduced the burden for engaging in such investments. However, Goldman Sachs has no plans to change its strategy and continues to use its balance sheet for seeding funds and co-investing where it enhances the client franchise. The firm is committed to this strategy and does not intend to pivot away from it.
Q:What is Goldman Sachs' stance on the durability of recent RWA reductions?
A:Goldman Sachs has been executing a strategy for years that is less RWA dense, and they have seen progress towards this goal. Despite the recent favorable treatment of certain trading activities, the firm cannot quantify the exact impact due to lack of transparency in the capital models. The firm plans to maintain flexibility and adapt until there is more clarity on capital rules, which is expected over the next 12 months.
Q:What structural changes have contributed to the firm's market share gains and how are they evolving their client coverage?
A:The firm's market share gains have been driven by changes in the overall coverage philosophy across the organization and the unification of global banking and markets to enhance activity and seamlessly deliver services to clients. There has been a significant evolution in the way the firm thinks about clients, servicing them, meeting their needs, and getting resources in front of them. The firm continues to work on this operating ethos across the firm, which has led to behavior changes among employees over the past five years.
Q:How is financing clients contributing to the firm's market shares and what is their strategy with respect to client coverage?
A:Financing clients has created a virtuous cycle of more activity in the firm's ecosystem, contributing positively to market shares. The firm is constantly looking for ways to improve client relationships, coverage, and therefore market share, making this a fundamental pillar of client service value. They aim to execute against their plans and continue to make client coverage a critical part of their strategy.
Q:What is Goldman Sachs' perspective on the potential of tokenization and the regulatory clarity needed?
A:Goldman Sachs is focused on the legislative agenda and the development of regulatory structure around stablecoins and digitization. They believe that the market structure bill is important and think there could be opportunities for addressing funding around digitization. The firm recognizes the potential to disrupt and change the competitive landscape, creating new opportunities. While it's too early to specify investment directions, the firm is closely watching the evolution of the situation and plans to continue providing updates.
Q:What is needed from a regulatory or construct perspective to reduce the buffer required for CT 1 minimums?
A:To reduce the buffer required for CT 1 minimums, there needs to be more transparency and detailed information from a regulatory construct around the results of the annual stress test, including models and inputs. This would be extremely helpful in calibrating the impact of stress tests on each component of the firm's portfolio. Additionally, the firm is looking for accelerated opportunities for deployment to work down the buffer. They are improving holistic client coverage, integrating financing to enhance client relationships, and using capital deployment and buybacks to further reduce the buffer. Regulatory clarity on this is expected in the next 6 to 12 months.
Q:Can the firm's trading business maintain its robustness if investment banking trends accelerate?
A:The firm's markets business is very large, diverse, and global, touching all asset classes. While it's difficult to predict the future, the firm believes that the overall size of the business is driven by growth and activity in the world, and significant investment banking activity is conducive to their markets business. As a diverse business, it's expected that fluctuations in different areas could affect the business, but overall, robust investment banking trends could be constructive for the firm's markets business.
Q:How is the firm positioning itself to capitalize on potential changes in alternative fundraising within retirement accounts?
A:Goldman Sachs is strategically focused on alternative fundraising within the broader wealth and retail channels. They are building third-party wealth distribution partnerships actively and have a dedicated team for this purpose. The firm is also engaged in discussions with potential partners in the retirement channel and sees the topic of adding alternative assets to retirement accounts as a significant opportunity. They are excited about this opportunity and are extremely focused on capitalizing on it.
Q:What is the firm's outlook for sustainable revenue models and the drivers of mid-teens return on equity (ROE)?
A:The firm's outlook for sustainable revenue models is optimistic, as they have been discussing their ability to drive the firm to mid-teens ROEs. The current regulatory and macro environment gives them a higher level of confidence in their ability to deliver on this. The firm is delivering on this goal and continues to focus on building a sustainable revenue model with less volatility.
Q:What factors are driving the firm's overall returns?
A:The firm's overall returns are being driven by the growth in the asset wealth management business, which is improving margins and returns, and the performance of the global banking markets business.
Q:How does the firm's excess capital contribute to its operations?
A:Excess capital provides the firm with capacity to drive extra activities with clients and to operate with a lower denominator, acting as a dual beneficial source of tailwind that accelerates the existing strategy.
Q:What does the firm's current dividend payout ratio suggest about its earnings power?
A:The firm's current dividend payout ratio does not suggest a specific earnings power but indicates that given the amount of capital generated, a higher payout ratio could be justified. However, the firm is comfortable with its current payout and aims for a sustainable, consistently growing dividend.
Q:How does the firm plan to use its earnings power in the future?
A:The firm plans to use its earnings power to continue building more durable revenue growth and to grow the overall firm and franchise, focusing on sustainable, consistently growing dividends rather than speculation on payouts.
Q:What is the key reason for the firm's optimistic outlook on advisory revenue and performance?
A:The key reason for the firm's optimistic outlook on advisory revenue and performance is its strong franchise that has been leading for over 25 years, a quarter-to-quarter performance that can vary, and the firm's continued leadership position which is expected to be sustained if execution continues.
Q:Can the firm's high standards for inorganic growth be defined?
A:The firm's high standards for inorganic growth include strategic fit, confidence in people and cultural issues, and a rigorous financial analysis to ensure alignment and value for the firm.
Q:What risks concern the firm in the current geopolitical environment?
A:In the current geopolitical environment, the firm is concerned about risks with small probability events that could negatively impact performance. It maintains an extraordinary focus on risk management and is vigilant given the highly uncertain and risk environment, including geopolitical risks.