台积电 (TSM.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
TSMC reported an 11.3% sequential revenue increase in NT dollars and a 17.8% increase in USD, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technologies. Gross margin slightly decreased to 58.6% due to foreign exchange rates and overseas fab ramp-ups. The company anticipates continued demand for leading-edge technologies, particularly in AI and HPC, and plans significant investments in advanced manufacturing in the US, Japan, and Europe. Despite potential tariff uncertainties, TSMC expects a mild recovery in non-market segments driven by AI demand.
会议速览

This conversation focused on TSMC's financial performance for the second quarter of 2025. It started with a summary of the quarter's operations by CFO Huang Wend. He also provided performance guidance for the third quarter. Then, Huang Wend and the Chairman and CEO shared key information about the company. The meeting also included a Q&A session, during which forward-looking statements and their potential risks and uncertainties were discussed.

In the second quarter, the company's revenue increased by 17.8% year-on-year, reaching $30.1 billion, benefiting from strong demand for 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies despite adverse foreign exchange impacts. The gross margin was 58.6%, while the operating profit margin was 49.6%. Advanced process technologies (7 nanometers and below) accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. HPC platform revenue grew by 14%, representing 60% of total revenue. Revenue for the third quarter is expected to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, with a gross margin forecasted to be between 55.5% and 57.5%, and an operating profit margin between 45.5% and 47.5%. Annual capital spending is expected to be maintained between $38 billion and $42 billion.

In the second quarter of 2025, TSMC's gross profit margin was 58.6%, slightly lower than the previous quarter, mainly due to adverse foreign exchange rates and margin dilution from overseas factories. The gross profit margin for the third quarter is expected to further decrease to 56.5%, with the main factors still being exchange rate issues and production costs of overseas factories (such as in Kumamoto, Japan and Arizona, USA). Despite these challenges, TSMC expects the long-term gross profit margin to reach 53% or higher and anticipates a 30% increase in annual revenue, benefiting from strong demand for 3D, 3nm, and 5nm technologies, especially in the AI and high-performance computing sectors. The company remains cautious about the potential impact of tariff policies and will continue to invest in technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust to strengthen its market competitiveness.

TSMC, based on customer demand, value, flexibility, and government support, has decided on a global manufacturing layout, with a special emphasis on investment plans in the United States. The total investment plan is $16.5 billion for advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the US, including the establishment of six manufacturing plants, a packaging plant, and a major research and development center in Arizona. The first plant has already entered mass production, using N4 process technology equivalent to the Taiwan factory. The construction of the second plant, using 3-nanometer technology, has been completed and is accelerating production to meet customer demand. At the same time, construction has begun on the third plant using 2-nanometer and 16-nanometer technology, with plans to increase production to meet AI-related demand. TSMC expects to establish an advanced semiconductor manufacturing cluster in Arizona to meet the demand for smartphones, AI, and high-performance computing applications, with 30% of 2-nanometer and more advanced capacities located there. Additionally, plans are in place to establish two advanced packaging facilities and research centers to enhance the AI supply chain. TSMC will continue to play a key role in the US semiconductor industry, helping customers succeed.

TSMC is expanding its manufacturing capacity globally, including multiple projects in Japan, Europe, and Taiwan, to meet the global IC industry's demand for advanced process technology. In Japan, mass production for the latter part of 2024 has already begun, with plans to build more factories in Europe and Taiwan. At the same time, TSMC focused on the development of its advanced technologies such as N2, A16, and A14, which will provide significant improvements for high-performance and energy-efficient computing. Mass production is expected in the coming years, strengthening its leading position in the global semiconductor industry.

At the recent meeting, the discussion focused on the strong momentum of the demand for data centers and AI that TSMC is facing, as well as how the company is attempting to narrow the supply-demand gap. In addition, observations on the development of device AI were mentioned, as well as the reasons for the expected decline in revenue in the fourth quarter, which is mainly based on customer feedback, especially in the consumer market.

The discussion focused on the progress of Edge AI in customer product design, pointing out that although the number of devices is growing moderately, the project scale is continuously increasing. It is expected that there will be a significant growth in the next six months to a year. At the same time, regarding the business guidance for the fourth quarter, the company has adopted a more conservative approach, taking into account the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties. However, it emphasized that if there is an opportunity, they will leverage their technological leadership and excellent manufacturing capabilities.

In the discussion, the focus was on the significant impact of foreign exchange rate changes on gross profit margins, as well as the company's confidence in maintaining or increasing future gross profit margins. In addition, there was also a discussion on the shipment of AI accelerator chips to the Chinese market and whether this may prompt the company to adjust its long-term growth forecast.

The discussion focuses on the revenue contribution of TSMC's N2 process technology, especially compared to the N3 process, as well as revenue growth expectations for the next few years. The revenue contribution of the N2 process is expected to be higher than the N3 process, not only because of its more competitive pricing, but also because capacity improvements will drive faster revenue growth.

The discussion focused on the supply and demand situation of TSMC's N5 and N3 technology nodes in the next two years. Due to the large number of AI products still at the 4-nanometer technology node and transitioning to 3 nanometers, the N5 production capacity is extremely tight. TSMC is using its technological advantages to flexibly adjust the capacity between 7 nanometers, 5 nanometers, and 3 nanometers, even using N7 capacity to support N5, while also transitioning N5 to N3 to meet demand. The overall production capacity of its leading technology nodes is in a highly tight state, and TSMC is working hard to narrow the gap between demand and capacity.

The conversation revolves around how TSMC is adjusting wafer prices and utilizing AI technology to address the structural cost increase caused by exchange rates and high costs of overseas factories. TSMC points out that despite the unfavorable structural factors, these can be effectively offset through optimization of other factors, such as price adjustments and the application of AI technology. Specifically, the application of AI technology in operations and research and development has significantly increased productivity for the company, equivalent to billions of dollars in value.

In recent conversations, it was mentioned that TSMC plans to build multiple semiconductor fabs in Taiwan and overseas to meet the strong demand for 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer, and future 2-nanometer chips in global data centers. Observers pointed out that this scale of capacity expansion is unprecedented in TSMC's history, demonstrating exceptionally strong market demand. TSMC stated that despite the high demand, they are working hard to close the supply-demand gap and ensure that there is enough capacity to support the increasingly growing data center demand.

In the discussion, the focus is on the comparison of N2 and N3 technologies, especially in terms of their return on investment ratio and future development. N2 technology is highly regarded for its higher profitability, despite its high capital expenditure, its production performance is excellent. It was mentioned in the discussion that the development of N2 technology is progressing as planned, with an expected increase in production in the second half of this year, and revenue is expected to be achieved in the first half of next year. At the same time, it was also emphasized that N2 technology is superior to N3 technology in terms of profitability, and its development progress is in line with expectations.

Although the company has increased its sales guidance in 2025, it has kept its CapEx (capital expenditure) guidance unchanged, a decision that takes into consideration macroeconomic uncertainties. For the coming years, especially 2026 and 2027, the company expects CapEx to potentially rise to address ongoing business opportunities. Additionally, the company emphasizes the importance of growth in cloud AI and AI accelerators, actively constructing new facilities to increase the capacity for AI and CoWoS (Co-package Wafer-on-Substrate) to meet strong market demand.

The discussion focuses on the development of TSMC's AI chip technology, especially the issues of increasing chip size and energy consumption, and how the company is addressing these challenges through advanced packaging technology and node development strategies. In addition, it explores TSMC's strategies in mature node technology, including how to meet customer demand by developing specialty technologies such as CMOS sensors and high voltage technology, and how to avoid excess capacity issues in the industry.

During the discussion, TSMC assessed the market potential of humanoid robots in the semiconductor industry, especially their contributions and growth momentum in the AI hardware field. Humanoid robots are seen as the next frontier in AI hardware, and their application in the semiconductor market will involve significant computing and sensor requirements. The discussion also touched on the issue of capital intensity, particularly when investing in new nodes or structural mega trends, TSMC's capital intensity has reached or exceeded 40%. For the upcoming 2-nanometer technology, TSMC expects capital intensity to rise again to meet demand. Additionally, the discussion also involved the possibility of customer demand pull-in ahead of schedule, as well as TSMC's capacity and plans for the fourth quarter.

The conversation mainly revolves around the relationship between capital expenditure and future growth opportunities, as well as the application of AI technology in the semiconductor industry, particularly in TSMC's adoption and leading-edge technology nodes such as 16 nanometers. The discussion emphasizes the strong growth of AI demand and the importance of improving power efficiency for data center applications, while also mentioning the progress of TSMC technology in meeting these needs.

TSMC is accelerating the construction progress of its second factory in the United States in response to customer demand, a decision positively influenced by the US government's policy of increasing tax credits for investment. Additionally, TSMC's expansion plans in the US will not impact its investment plans in Japan and Germany, as investments in these regions are focused on different technologies and industries. Furthermore, the detailed allocation of TSMC's overseas capital expenditures and domestic capital expenditures has become a point of discussion.
要点回答
Q:What is the impact of TSMC's expansion plans on the semiconductor manufacturing capacity in Arizona?
A:Upon completion, around 30% of TSMC's 2nm and more advanced capacity will be located in Arizona, creating an independent leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing cluster.
Q:How is TSMC continuing to play a role in the US semiconductor industry?
A:TSMC is continuing to play a critical and integral role in enabling customer success in the US and maintains a key partnership within the US semiconductor industry.
Q:What are the status and future plans for TSMC's N2 and A16 technology nodes?
A:TSMC's N2 and A16 technologies are leading the industry in addressing the increasing demand for energy-efficient computing. New takeouts for 2nm technology in the first two years are expected to be higher than both 3nm and 5nm due to demand from smartphones and HPC applications. Full node performance with 10-15 speed improvement at the same power or 20-30% power improvement at the same speed is anticipated. Volume production for N2 is scheduled for the second half of 2025 with a roadmap profile similar to N3. N2p, an extension of the N2 family, will provide further performance and power benefits, scheduled for volume production in the second half of 2026. A16, featuring a best-in-class superpower rail, is suitable for specific HPC products with high power requirements and will deliver volume production in the second half of 2026. Both technologies are expected to be a long-term node for TSMC.
Q:What are TSMC's plans for A14 technology and its continuous enhancement strategy?
A:TSMC's A14 technology features a second-generation narrow sheet transistor structure, delivering a four-fold improvement from N2 with performance and power benefits for high-performance and energy-efficient computing. A14 is scheduled for volume production in 2028. The continuous enhancement strategy includes a superpower rail offering for A14 planned for 2029. TSMC believes A14 and its derivatives will extend their technology leadership and capture growth opportunities well into the future.
Q:What is TSMC's outlook on the demand for advanced packaging and co-op capacity through 2026?
A:The outlook is that the demand for advanced packaging and co-op capacity will continue to strengthen, with a focus on narrowing the supply-demand gap for co-op specifically. The momentum remains strong and very healthy as the need for AI continues to grow.
Q:How has the development of on-device AI evolved compared to 3 to 6 months ago?
A:The development of on-device AI has continued with customers taking one to two years to complete new product designs. Although the increase in the number of units is mild, the size increase of about 5% to 10% per year has been observed and is expected to continue. It is anticipated that there will be a more significant impact or 'explosion' in the next six to 12 months.
Q:Why is TSMC being conservative with its fourth-quarter revenue expectations?
A:TSMC is being conservative with its fourth-quarter revenue expectations due to the potential impact of tariffs and other uncertainties. Despite this conservative outlook, TSMC remains confident in its technology leadership and manufacturing excellence and expects to achieve its high-end target.
Q:What is the impact of the exchange rate on the company's value?
A:The speaker indicates that the impact of the exchange rate on the company's value is significant and suggests that the company is confident in maintaining a 53% gross margin or higher.
Q:Can the 40% K target for cloud growth be revised upwards given the H20 chip's ability to be shipped to China?
A:The speaker does not provide a definitive answer, but expresses that they are confident about the 40% K growth target for the coming five years and suggests that the market in China becoming addressable again is positive for the company's forecast.
Q:Will the demand for AI accelerators grow at a higher rate, specifically in the mid-40s CAGR?
A:The speaker indicates that it's too early to give an estimate on whether the long-term AI accelerator growth CAGR will be higher than mid-40s but conveys that it is a positive development for the involved parties.
Q:What is the expected revenue contribution from the N2 node for next year?
A:The speaker does not provide a specific revenue contribution estimate for the N2 node but implies it will contribute significantly more than the N3 node because N2 is not priced the same as N3.
Q:Will the revenue contribution from N2 in 2026 be higher than in 2027?
A:The speaker defers the question to 2026 and suggests that the revenue contribution from N2 in 2027 might be even greater, implying that it will increase over time.
Q:What is the outlook for N5 and N3 nodes in terms of supply and demand over the next two years?
A:The outlook for N5 and N3 nodes is that supply is very tight with high demand from AI products transitioning to 3nm technology over the next two years. Even N5 capacity is constrained, and the company is working to convert capacity from N5 to N3 due to demand.
Q:How can TSMC adjust its wafer pricing in response to cost increases, and what economic benefits are derived from AI across its operations?
A:TSMC anticipates being able to adjust wafer pricing to offset some cost increases. The company derives economic benefits from AI, such as improved operational efficiency through computational lithography, without providing specific quantification of these benefits.
Q:Does TSMC have enough capacity to satisfy the strong demand from data centers in the near future, and what are the plans for N2 capacity in 2022-2026?
A:The speaker does not directly confirm whether TSMC has sufficient capacity to meet data center demand or the specific plans for N2 capacity from 2022 to 2026, indicating that the company is assessing the situation and potential capacity adjustments.
Q:What is the projected demand for AI data centers and the need for advanced nodes like 2 nm?
A:The projected demand for AI data centers is strong, with a notable interest in nodes such as 3nm, 5nm, and the upcoming 2nm. This demand has been unseen for a long time and is expected to continue with a push to narrow the gap between the high demand and the supply.
Q:What is the return on investment comparison between N2 and N3, and what is the future development outlook for N2?
A:The return on investment for N2 is better than for N3, and structurally, N2 has a better profitability. N2 development is right on track, with ramping anticipated in the second half of the year, leading to revenue expected in the first half of the following year.
Q:Is it fair to assume that TSMC is considering some conservatism for CapEx guidance due to ongoing macro uncertainty?
A:Yes, it is fair to assume that TSMC is considering some conservatism for CapEx guidance due to ongoing macro uncertainty. TSMC is mindful of these uncertainties and is taking them into consideration in their capacity and CapEx plan. While it's too early to talk about future years' CapEx, it is unlikely to see a significant drop in CapEx dollar amount in any given year.
Q:What is the CapEx outlook for 2026 and 2027?
A:The CapEx outlook for 2026 and 2027 is not directly provided, but TSMC indicates that they will continue to invest in line with future business opportunities. It's unlikely for CapEx dollar amounts to drop significantly in any given year.
Q:What is the forecast for Cloud AI revenue growth in 2025 and TSMC's plans for co-ops capacity expansion?
A:TSMC is seeing very healthy and strong momentum for Cloud AI revenue growth in 2025. They are building new facilities to increase AI capacity and cowork capacity to support customer demand. For co-ops capacity expansion in 2026, TSMC is ramping up capacity to accommodate the strong demand.
Q:How does TSMC prioritize advanced packaging technology alongside advanced nodes like N2 and X16?
A:TSMC's strategy for advanced packaging is to leverage technology transfers between different packaging solutions and prioritize packaging solutions that align with their advanced node developments. While there are similarities in technology, there are also many varieties, and the goal is to avoid too much effort without adequate return.
Q:What is TSMC's strategy for mature nodes in light of industry-wide overcapacity?
A:TSMC's strategy for mature nodes is to develop specialty technologies like CMOS sensors or high voltage, which are unique requests from their customers. They focus on customer-specific needs rather than general overcapacity in the industry, ensuring their capacity is related to actual customer demand.
Q:How does TSMC evaluate the market size of human robots and their potential impact on TSMC's business?
A:While human robots are starting to contribute to TSMC and are viewed as the next frontier of AI hardware, it is still too early to evaluate the market size and potential compute and sensor requirements for human robots in the semiconductor industry. The technology is in its nascent stages, with initial applications expected in the medical field.
Q:What are the challenges associated with developing technology for human interaction?
A:Developing technology that interacts directly with humans involves complexity due to the involvement of various sensors and feedback mechanisms to the CPU. Careful consideration is necessary when dealing with human interaction due to the direct engagement with a human being.
Q:Are there any indications that customers are trying to pull in their demand ahead of the projected value into 2026?
A:The speaker indicates that there has not been any change in customer behavior that would suggest a pull-in of demand ahead of the projected value into 2026. Furthermore, the demand for 3nm technology has a cycle time of about four months, making it impractical for customers to pull in demand, and the company's capacity is already very tight.
Q:What is TSMC's expectation regarding capital intensity for the upcoming years, especially with the strong demand for 2nm technology?
A:TSMC does not set capital intensity as a goal but focuses on the investment in line with future growth opportunities. The expectation is that growth in revenue will likely exceed the growth in capital expenditures, resulting in a lower capital intensity. Because of this, capital intensity is considered less meaningful than before.
Q:How does TSMC view the relationship between the development of 2nm technology and the adoption by AI and HPC?
A:TSMC views the development of 2nm technology as highly relevant for AI and HPC, with the 2nm family expected to be a specific offering catering to these advanced computing needs. It is noted that traditionally, TSMC has been one node behind the leading edge for AI adoption; however, the strong demand for performance and power efficiency is driving AI data centers to adopt the 2nm technology.
Q:How is the strong demand in the US shaping TSMC's overseas expansion plans?
A:The strong demand in the US has led TSMC to accelerate the expansion of its second fabrication facility. This decision is driven by customer demand rather than the US government's investment tax credit increase. Despite the ITC increase, the primary focus is on preparing capacity to meet demand. TSMC's overseas expansion plans are not expected to be significantly impacted by the investment in the US, as the technology and customer requirements vary by region.