阿斯麦公司 (ASML.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
ASML reported strong Q2 2025 financial results with a focus on EUV lithography, driven by AI demands. Despite robust performance and market dynamics, including China's significant backlog contribution, the company faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and potential export restrictions, leading to cautious optimism for 2026 growth.
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ASML achieved a total net sales of 7.7 billion euros in the second quarter of 2025, with system sales reaching 5.6 billion euros. The company reported a gross profit margin of 48.7%, exceeding expectations. Additionally, net system bookings in the second quarter reached 5.5 billion euros, indicating strong market demand. As of the end of the second quarter, ASML's order backlog reached approximately 33 billion euros. In terms of finance and operations, ASML paid a final dividend of 1.84 euros per share and announced an interim dividend of 1.6 euros per share for the first quarter of 2025. In addition, the company conducted a total of 1.4 billion euros in share repurchases. Management emphasized the current business environment and future growth prospects, showcasing the company's strong position in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market.

In 2025, artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to be a key factor driving growth in the memory and logic market. System revenue is expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024, particularly in the transition to memory nodes supporting the latest generation of Hpm and DDR5 products. For UV business, customers will continue to increase capacity at the leading edge to meet AI demand, with advanced customers expected to increase approximately 30% of EUV capacity in 2025. Despite the relative stability of system quantity, ASP and cost margins will improve. EUV revenue is expected to grow by approximately 30%, while DPV and related system revenue will remain stable. Additionally, installation base management revenue will increase due to an increase in service revenue and contributions from EUV services. Despite an expected revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2025, caution is still advised in growth forecasts for 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The conversation discussed the current macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties' impact on the semiconductor industry, especially the direct and indirect effects of tariffs on system sales, material imports, and exports. Despite anticipating that these uncertainties may affect business, the company is working with customers and suppliers to limit direct impacts and expects total net sales for the third quarter of 2025 to be between 7.4 billion and 7.9 billion euros. At the same time, the company emphasized technological advancements in Luna and Ina EV products, as well as the critical role of EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology in meeting customers' advanced technical requirements and reducing costs. Despite short-term uncertainty, in the long run, the semiconductor market is expected to remain strong, driven by growth in artificial intelligence, especially in the advanced logic and DRAM sectors, which require more densely populated advanced lithography systems.

Before the Q&A session at the meeting, the host reminded participants to only ask one main question and one brief follow-up question to allow more people to speak. Afterwards, the host invited the operator to give final instructions and accepted the first question from Francois Bovine from UBS.

ASML explained the changes in sales and configuration of EUV equipment this year, including the growth in the Chinese market exceeding expectations, and some equipment being shipped at lower configurations, later upgraded to a level of 220 wafers per hour through upgrade services. This growth is reflected in the installed base business. Additionally, as customers chose the 3830 and 3860 models of equipment, despite lower unit sales volume, the overall capacity demand was still met, resulting in a higher average selling price (ASP) for the equipment. Furthermore, the share of DPV business in the Chinese market has also increased.

In the discussion, ASML clearly stated that the pricing of its products is based on the value to customers. As the product performance and value increase, such as increased productivity, better coverage, and imaging performance, the price will also increase accordingly. In addition, ASML's tools like Ina simplify customer processes and reduce production cycles, helping customers smoothly transition to the next technology node, further increasing the value of the product. Through these strategies, ASML aims to achieve technological advancement with customers, while ensuring that its product pricing is reasonable and competitive.

It was mentioned in the discussion that although lifting the ban on exporting AI chips to China may not directly lead to a significant increase in sales, this move is seen as positive development for the entire ecosystem and global chip industry ecosystem. In addition, the recent relaxation of restrictions on chip design software was also mentioned, with the belief that this would strengthen the connections and influence of the global chip ecosystem, which is seen as a positive development for the industry as a whole.

The discussion focused on ASML's expectations for DUV technology in the Chinese market, as well as the prospects for the application of Hana technology in the 1.4nm node. Despite potential further restrictions, demand in the Chinese market remains strong, with annual revenue expected to account for over 25%. As for Hana technology, progress has been good, with customers giving positive feedback on the tools and their use, and it is expected to be used for high-volume manufacturing between 2026 and 2027. ASML also mentioned that their EUV orders include a mix of low-end and high-end Hana orders, but specific details have not been publicly disclosed due to customer demand.

The conversation discussed the challenges that customers face when making capital expenditure (CapEx) decisions due to the uncertainty of tariff policies in the past 90 days. This uncertainty stems from the constant changes in policies, making it difficult for customers to assess the actual costs when considering expanding investments in the United States, thereby affecting their investment decisions. In addition, the uncertainty of tariff policies has also raised concerns about GDP growth, making customers more cautious and inclined to postpone investment decisions until clearer market signals are obtained. This uncertainty not only affects direct investments but also indirectly impacts customers' overall business planning and market strategies.

The company explained the reasons for the expected decrease in gross profit margin for the next quarter, mainly including an increase in high NA tool revenue, a decrease in upgrade business, and the absence of one-time cost benefits from the first half of the year in the second half of the year. These factors collectively lead to the expected slightly weaker gross profit margin for the second quarter.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that although there may be fluctuations in booking situations, it does not fully reflect the true trend of the business. At the same time, they also mentioned the allocation of bookings in terms of logic and memory, as well as the booking coverage rate for the current year, indicating that it is close to full coverage and some new orders will be used for the next year.

In this discussion, the participants clarified the growth rate of the company's service business, originally expected to be 40%, and explained in detail how this growth rate has mainly changed from system business to upgrade business, and how this change has affected the tools business, particularly pointing out the growth related to approximately 50 tools.

The discussion focused on the challenges currently facing the semiconductor industry, especially customer concerns and changes in demand caused by tariff uncertainties. The industry has observed that compared to the past, customers are more anxious about tariff discussions, leading them to adopt a more cautious attitude towards confirming demand, thereby affecting overall industry capacity planning and growth expectations. Despite technological advancements such as the introduction of the 3800S tool, which has improved production efficiency, the uncertainty in the macro environment remains a key factor affecting industry development.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that a 30% increase in efficiency would meet the customer's need to expand capacity, indicating that future sales of more tools to customers will depend on their willingness to increase capacity. Previously, demand for lithium tools depended mainly on how much capacity customers were willing to increase.

The dialogue revolves around the definition and monitoring methods of UV production capacity demand in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the importance of high productivity tools in enhancing customer value and company gross margins. The discussion points out that, despite current uncertainties regarding tariffs and geopolitical issues, strong demand in the field of AI is supporting the industry fundamentals. Industry participants are closely monitoring the outcome of tariff discussions, which may result in delays in decision-making rather than fundamental changes, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook for growth prospects in 2026.

In the advanced memory chip manufacturing, particularly for DRAM customers, ASML has observed a significant increase in the adoption rate of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology. EUV technology is considered an industry trend because it simplifies the manufacturing process and accelerates the achievement of desired performance. In addition, ASML is continuously optimizing the performance and productivity of existing platforms, and expects this improvement work to continue until the end of this century. The development of the next platform is planned to be achieved in the early next decade to further drive the iteration and advancement of lithography technology.

The discussion is focused on market demand trends in the semiconductor industry, especially in the memory and logic chip sectors. It is mentioned that although revenues and bookings for memory chips have slightly declined this quarter, overall demand remains strong, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI. Concerning the Chinese market, despite some worries about demand shifting, there has not been a significant decrease in demand observed at present, with expectations that China will continue to maintain healthy demand for mainstream logic and memory chips in the coming years.

During an international conference call, Edilia Matuu asked if she could be heard clearly and received a positive response.

The discussion mainly focused on the specific situation of company order adjustments, particularly regarding the proportion of order adjustments from EU and Chinese customers, and whether these adjustments involve multiple customers. Additionally, the impact of tariff uncertainty on order and revenue growth was explored, as well as the effect of order intake levels under different assumptions on achieving steady or growth revenue targets.

In the logic market, discussions indicate that although there was no increase in UV layers at the 2 nanometer node, it is expected that at the 1.4 nanometer node and beyond, there will be an increase in lithography intensity with the adoption of new technologies and architectures. In the long term, there is a strong demand from logic customers for increasing UV layers, although there may be temporary pauses at certain nodes, this is to achieve further miniaturization and intensity enhancement. At the same time, the market competition is fierce, and AI-driven innovation will continue to bring more opportunities.

The meeting discussed in detail ASML's financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, including expected changes in installed base management, growth in service revenue, and the adoption and maturity progress of high NA technology. The meeting emphasized the expected decline in upgrade business and focus on service business, particularly the growth in service revenue after EUV tool warranties. Additionally, the discussion covered the three stages of high NA technology, with the current stage being the first stage, which involves technology validation and maturity improvement, with an expectation to gradually transition to high-volume manufacturing in the coming years.
要点回答
Q:What were the key financial results for ASML's second quarter of 2025?
A:For the second quarter of 2025, ASML reported total net sales of €7.7 billion, with net system sales at €5.6 billion, including €2.7 billion from UV sales and €2.9 billion from non-EUV sales. Gross margin for the quarter was 53.7%, revenue recognition was as guided, operating expenses were as expected, with a tax rate of 18.1%, net income at €2.3 billion, and earnings per share at €6.4 euros. ASML also ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at €7.2 billion, and net system bookings at €5.5 billion.
Q:What is the expected revenue growth for ASML in 2025, and what segments are driving this growth?
A:ASML expects total revenue to increase by around 15% in 2025 with a gross margin of around 52%. The revenue growth is driven by the logic segment, with a forecast of increased system revenue due to capacity additions on GA nodes and support for the latest HPM and DDR 5 products. The memory segment is also expected to remain strong as customers transition to next nodes. The EUV business is expected to grow by around 30% due to increased capacity and higher productivity of the N3800 E system. Additionally, the combined revenue of DUV and metrology and inspection systems is expected to be similar to 2024, while in situ base management revenue is expected to grow more than 10% over last year.
Q:What is the impact of tariffs on ASML's business, and what is the company's strategy to address this uncertainty?
A:ASML is facing increasing uncertainty due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, which may have direct and indirect implications for its business with regard to tariffs. The direct impact from tariffs related to system sales to US customers and the import of materials and parts for US operations is being managed, and any direct impact is expected to be limited. However, the indirect impact is complex and difficult to determine as it is related to potential GDP impacts and overall market demand. ASML continues to monitor the situation and assess the potential effect of tariffs on its results.
Q:What are the financial expectations for the third quarter of 2025?
A:For the third quarter of 2025, ASML expects total net sales to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion. They anticipate Q3 installed base management sales to be around €5 billion euros, gross margin for Q3 between 56% and 58%, and expected RD expenses around €1.2 billion and GA expenses at approximately €310 million. The gross margin in the second half of the year is expected to be lower than the first half, primarily due to the margin dilutive effect of higher Ina system revenue in the second half, lower upgrade revenue, and one-time positive contributions in the first half that are not expected in the second half. For the full year, ASML continues to expect a gross margin of around 62%.
Q:What revenue and margin expectations are set for the upcoming year?
A:Revenue for the upcoming year is expected to be between €24 billion and €26 billion euros, with gross margin expected between 39% and 41%.
Q:Why did EUV sales growth come in lower than expected despite a 30% capacity increase?
A:EUV sales growth came in lower than expected because the growth in the in situ business, where revenue is not from system sales but from upgrades to bring tools to a 220 wafers per hour configuration, was faster than anticipated.
Q:What is the reason for the stronger performance in China's DUV market?
A:The stronger performance in China's DUV market is due to an unexpected shift, where China's contribution to the DUV business has increased, surpassing the expectations from the start of the year.
Q:Does the increased value to the customer from higher throughput and improved overlay result in higher pricing for the tools?
A:Yes, the increased value to the customer due to higher throughput and improved overlay and metal pitch results in the ability to charge a higher price for the tools.
Q:Is there a neutral impact on the company's part if a customer does not adopt high multi patterning low (MPL)?
A:If a customer does not adopt high multi patterning low, it is neutral for the company as it has multiplicative leap lanes. However, the value to the customer increases with higher multi patterning low, allowing the company to potentially price higher.
Q:How does the removal of the export ban on AI chips to China impact the company's business?
A:The removal of the export ban on AI chips to China is seen as a positive development for the company, strengthening the global reach of the ecosystem, and potentially benefiting the company.
Q:What is the potential impact of restrictions being lifted on immersion for China?
A:The potential impact of restrictions being lifted on immersion for China is a positive development for the company, contributing to the wider deployment of the ecosystem and strengthening the global reach.
Q:How does the change in DUV outlook for the second half of the year compare to the initial expectations?
A:The DUV outlook for the second half of the year has further strengthened compared to initial expectations. The guidance provided at the time of Q1 suggested China DUV revenues would be slightly better than 25% or 6% prior, but the actual performance has been stronger. The company does not believe the dynamic has materially changed, and they still expect over a 25% growth for the year.
Q:What is the phase the customer is in regarding the qualification of the tool?
A:The phase where the customer is currently at is the phase where they are qualifying the tool with the intention to insert it into high-volume manufacturing by 2026 or 2027. The exact format for insertion will depend on the progress made in the upcoming months.
Q:What has been the progress regarding the customer's use of the tool?
A:The progress with customer use of the tool has been positive. Initial data from the end of last year and early this year is still good, and customers are increasingly liking the tool as they use it more. This indicates an expanding opportunity over time as more data confirms the tool's performance.
Q:Why are the company and customers cautious about making investment decisions?
A:The company and customers are cautious about making investment decisions due to the ongoing discussions and uncertainty surrounding the impact of trade tariffs. There is uncertainty about the exact impact these tariffs will have on investments, especially in the United States, as well as potential implications for GDP growth. This uncertainty causes customers to be more cautious and delay their investment decisions.
Q:What is the impact of uncertainty on investment decisions?
A:The uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs is causing investors to be more cautious, as they are unsure about the specific tariffs that might apply to their investments. This uncertainty also affects the clarity of customers' investment decisions and causes them to hold off on making commitments, resulting in a higher level of caution than usual.
Q:What is the expected impact of high NA tools on the gross margin in the second half of the year?
A:The expected impact of high NA tools on the gross margin in the second half of the year is a decrease as compared to the first half. This is primarily due to an increase in high NA tools being retroactively revised (RA), the anticipated decrease in upgrade business in the second half, and one-time cost benefits not being present in the second half.
Q:Can the speaker confirm the growth in bookings for the second quarter and the expectations for the third quarter?
A:The speaker cannot confirm the growth in bookings for the second quarter or provide expectations for the third quarter. They note that bookings are lumpy and not necessarily a good reflection of business momentum. Therefore, it would not be appropriate to speculate on future bookings or growth.
Q:What is the split between logic and DRAM for EUV bookings and between EUV and DUV bookings?
A:The split between logic and DRAM for EUV bookings is such that logic is the larger portion. As for DUV bookings, they are a mix, but the focus is more on logic than DRAM. The speaker also mentions that the company is virtually fully booked for the remainder of the year on DPU.
Q:What is the reason for the lower number of tools despite a 30% capacity increase?
A:The lower number of tools is attributed to the mix of tools in this year being dominated by the 3800 S, which has led to higher productivity on a per tool basis, fulfilling the 30% capacity increase requirement.
Q:Why has the outlook become more uncertain 90 days after the previous discussion about growth?
A:The outlook has become more uncertain due to increased concern about the tariffs discussion among customers. There is no clear line of sight on how the tariffs will land, their implications on GDP growth, and consequently, the demand from customers' customers. This uncertainty has caused customers to be more cautious and not confirm their demands as quickly as before.
Q:Has there been any change in customer dynamics or build plans?
A:Customers are expressing more concern and waiting longer to confirm their demands due to the uncertain tariffs discussion and its potential impacts. There is less visibility on their build plans and a tendency to hold off on confirming their demands.
Q:Is the demand for lithography tools a function of customers' capacity expansion?
A:The demand for lithography tools is not solely a function of customers expanding capacity; rather, the company focuses on the total capacity need of its customers. A tool with higher productivity allows for better value and profitability for both the company and the customer, and a lower number of tools needed can result in higher margins.
Q:Does the company monitor total wafer output as a key metric for UV capacity need?
A:Yes, the company defines the UV capacity need by monitoring the total need for wafer output, which is a key metric for the market they serve.
Q:What does the evolution of total wafer starts per month over time indicate?
A:The evolution of total wafer starts per month over time indicates the company's market size and the capacity expansion needs of its customers. This metric is closely followed to align with the company's strategy to serve the market by shipping the most effective and productive tools.
Q:Is it accurate to say the delay in decision-making is potential rather than a change in decision?
A:It is more accurate to say there are questions on decision-making, rather than a delay or change in decision, implying there is more interrogation about the decisions that need to be made.
Q:How does the latest node and DRAM roadmap influence the adoption of UV lithography?
A:The adoption of UV lithography is being influenced by the latest node and the DRAM roadmap. There has been a jump in the use of UV layers for the latest node and a shift towards EUV as a way to simplify the process flow and meet performance needs. This is a positive trend that is expected to continue over the next 3-5 nodes, including nodes like 3nm and 5nm.
Q:What is the company's strategy regarding the performance and scaling of EUV tools?
A:The company plans to continue improving the performance of EUV and scale its productivity as much as possible on the current platform. This is expected to happen until the performance improvements become more difficult, at which point the next platform will be available, allowing the journey to continue for another several years.
Q:What impact has AI had on memory revenue and bookings?
A:AI has driven strong memory revenue and bookings, with HBM being a key driver. Although logic spending increased this year, both logic and memory capacity need to be built to meet AI fundamentals. This indicates that there will continue to be strong demand on both fronts in the next few years.
Q:What was the order intake for memory in the last quarter and how does it relate to the current quarter's results?
A:In the last quarter, the order intake for memory was very high, contrary to the current quarter where it was low at 16%. This discrepancy is attributed to the lumpy nature of order intake, with strong order intake for memory in the previous quarters.
Q:What are the implications of strong China demand on your revenue expectations for next year?
A:While the speaker declined to make specific projections for 2026 including China, they mentioned that there is healthy demand in China which is not falling off. The expectation is that the demand will continue, indicating a healthy business in mainstream logic and memory in China, and the company is ready to serve this market.
Q:What proportion of the order adjustments in the backlog was related to EUV, and how many customers were involved?
A:There was a 1.4% adjustment in the backlog related to customers due to the export restrictions last year. The decision made by customers led to a cancellation of about €1 billion for August bookings. This adjustment accounts for a significant portion of the €33 billion backlog mentioned.
Q:How would additional orders impact revenue growth in the second half of the year and beyond?
A:The speaker did not directly address the impact of additional orders on revenue growth, but mentioned that there are heavy assumptions regarding the composition of the order book and the timing of these orders. The company does not intend to provide a specific forecast on the impact of potential orders.
Q:What is your perspective on the semiconductor industry's transition to the next node and the potential for increased litho intensity?
A:The speaker acknowledges that the transition to the next node, specifically the 1nm node, may involve a slight pause before an increase in litho intensity due to new architectural designs that enable higher density. However, this pause is seen as a transition phase to facilitate future shrinkages and more litho intensity. Long-term, there is a strong expectation from logic customers for more UV layers.
Q:Can you provide some insight into the expected behavior of the installed base in the fourth quarter, particularly regarding argon fluoride shipments?
A:The decline in the installed base in the fourth quarter is not solely attributed to argon fluoride shipments but also to a decrease in upgrade business, especially in EUV. Despite this, there is an expected increase in service revenue from EUV tools that are coming out of warranty. The guidance suggests a rounding between the third and fourth quarters that could potentially mislead analysis.
Q:What are the current expectations for high NA adoption and how does it relate to volume manufacturing?
A:High NA adoption is currently in phase 1, where technology is being qualified by customers. Some performance aspects like imaging and overlay have been validated. The next phase, phase 2, involves the qualification of the pool for high volume manufacturing insertion and focuses on the maturity of the tool to ensure repeatable performance in volume manufacturing. This is expected to be a key milestone for this year and next year, and when validated, it will lead to increased confidence in the system's capability to perform in manufacturing.

ASML Holding NV
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