中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
In the third quarter, the property market continued to build bottoming, differentiation is obvious, new home sales are low, second-hand housing transactions are active and the proportion of increased, the market into the stock stage. The new 828 policy has been implemented and detailed in many places: the announced plots before 828 can continue to be pre-sold until the end of 2027 (Wuhan, Hangzhou until the end of 2028); The new land parcel is mainly sold in existing houses. Pre-sale needs to be capped, capital supervision is completed, mortgage lending is postponed to completion, and supporting guarantee replacement and installment payment are used to relieve the financial pressure. 1-October second-hand house prices fell 4.92 percent, only 1 city rose in October; new house prices rose structurally, 100 cities fell 11 percent year-on-year in October, down 15 percent month-on-month; October 18 city second-hand housing transactions 116000 units year-on-year +17.5 percent, second-hand housing accounted for about 52.2 percent. Rental off-season, 50 city rents -0.28% month-on-month, core cities rose slightly. Land market shrinkage, September three or four lines after the release of October push-46% year-on-year, transactions and transfer of gold year-on-year + 90% but the cumulative still down, premium rate of 1.5 percent, funds to the head of the city concentration. Top 100 January-October sales of 2.54 trillion yuan, the decline narrowed, 100 billion/10 billion housing enterprises to reduce, competition to cash flow, product strength and delivery certainty; total land 646.5 billion yuan year-on-year -17.5, the head of the central enterprises and some private enterprises in the second-tier and core cities to actively layout, private enterprises to take land activity increased. At the end of the year discount and promotion or support for new housing transactions, the overall still bottomed out; second-hand housing transactions or maintain active, small price fluctuations; housing enterprises capital return cycle lengthened or restricted land, the impact of the policy on supply will gradually appear in the follow-up.
会议速览
Current Situation and Future Trends of the Real Estate Market: Differentiated Markets and the Impact of Policy AdjustmentThe real estate market continued to build a bottom in the third quarter, with low sales of new houses, growth in second-hand housing transactions, and core city projects supporting the average price of new houses in price adjustments. Policy adjustment to accelerate the transformation of market model, silver ten market moderate repair, the core city performance is stable, the fourth quarter market is expected to continue to repair but the differentiation characteristics are obvious.
Analysis of 17 City Rules under the New 828 Policy: Pre-sale and Existing Housing Sales System ParallelSince the introduction of the New Deal in 828, 17 cities have successively issued detailed rules, mainly focusing on transitional project arrangements, new pre-sale conditions, capital supervision, existing housing sales ratio, and land installment payment. The rules of most cities strictly follow the national policy, and at the same time show some flexibility in the sales of existing houses, letter of guarantee replacement, land payment and so on, so as to ease the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.
2023 real estate market: second-hand housing fell new housing rose, transaction activity is not reducedFrom January to October 2023, the second-hand housing market fell by 4.92 per cent, while the new housing market rose by 1.36 per cent. Second-hand housing transactions were active, up 7.3 percent year-on-year, while new home sales fell 11 percent year-on-year. The transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai maintained growth, while that in Shenzhen declined and that in Guangzhou declined slightly. The rental market entered the off-season, with rents falling 0.28 per cent month-on-month.
Analysis of land market and real estate transaction trend at the end of the yearIn September, the supply of homestead in third-and fourth-tier cities increased sharply. In October, the transaction area and transfer fee increased by nearly 90% year-on-year, but the cumulative transaction area and transfer fee still decreased year-on-year. The year-end home purchase loan discount policy is expected to support new housing transactions, but the market as a whole continues to build the bottom trend. Second-hand housing transactions are expected to remain active, prices fell slightly. 828 the new policy affects the return of funds of housing enterprises, restricting the ability to take land and investment willingness, the end of the year and 2027 land market policy impact will gradually be reflected.
In-depth interpretation of real estate sales and land acquisition from January to October 2026Sharing the focus on the sales performance and land acquisition dynamics of real estate companies from January to October 2026, pointed out that although sales continued to decline, the decline has narrowed. The sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 2537 billion, and the year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points. Industry adjustment trends.
Reasons for narrowing year-on-year decline: policy boosts confidence, supply-side coordination and low base effectThe narrowing year-on-year decline was mainly due to the policy side to boost confidence in home purchases, the acceleration of supply-side push promotions and the low base of the previous year, which combined to narrow the year-on-year decline in sales from January to October.
The differentiation of real estate enterprises intensifies: the rise of high-quality enterprises and the analysis of market trends.The trend of market differentiation of housing enterprises is obvious, sound capital, core city high-quality soil storage and product strength grinding so that some housing enterprises in the weak confidence environment to achieve positive sales growth. Industry competition logic from scale to cash flow, product strength and delivery certainty, hundreds of billions of clubs, the number of housing enterprises continue to decrease, resources to the head of the enterprise concentration. Policy support, location supply and demand gap, product power iteration and real-life cash jointly contributed to the emergence of hot-selling properties, the core city core sector projects are particularly prominent.
The downward trend of land acquisition scale of real estate enterprises in 2026 and the increase of heat in second-tier cities.From January to October 2026, the total amount of land taken by key real estate companies fell by 17.5 year-on-year, but the decline was narrower than in previous months. The proportion of land acquisition in second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities has increased, such as Chengdu, Suzhou and other places. Under the influence of the existing housing sales policy, real estate companies actively use the policy window to acquire land, especially in cities that announced unsold land before the 828 New Deal.
October housing enterprises take land trend: central state-owned enterprises slow down, private enterprises enthusiasm is high.The trend of land acquisition by real estate enterprises in October shows that although the intensity of land acquisition by central state-owned enterprises has increased year-on-year, the intensity of land acquisition is slowing down in a single month; the enthusiasm of private enterprises in land acquisition is increasing, such as Binjiang Group and Taibang Group respectively Active land acquisition in Hangzhou and nationwide, showing the activity and potential of private enterprises in the real estate market.
Analysis of land acquisition strategy and regional competition of real estate enterprisesIt shared the land acquisition situation of real estate enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, central and western regions, pointed out the layout and competitive situation of the head central state-owned enterprises such as Poly Development and China Resources Land in key areas, and analyzed the strategy of local deep-cultivated real estate enterprises such as Yuexiu and Jianfa real estate, as well as the dominant position of local state-owned assets in residential land transactions.
要点回答
Q：What is the overall trend of the real estate market since the third quarter? How is the current performance of the second-hand housing and new housing market?
A：Since the third quarter, the real estate market has continued to build a bottom, new home sales are running at a low level, first-tier cities have performed well, second-hand housing transactions have continued to grow, the proportion has further increased, and the market has entered the era of stock. In terms of price, second-hand housing price adjustment, core city high-quality projects to support the average price of new housing, land market shrinkage, housing enterprises to the core city and high certainty project concentration. After the 828 New Deal, various localities issued detailed rules, policy adjustment accelerated, the overall market in October moderate repair, structural differentiation, second-hand housing performance is better than new housing, the core city is relatively stable. In terms of second-hand housing, it fell 4.92 percent from January to October this year, and the decline has widened since the third quarter. In October, it fell 0.16 percent from the previous month. Only one city rose and 98 cities fell. The new housing market continued its structural rise, rising 1.36 percent from January to October and 0.18 percent from the previous month in October. Second-hand housing transaction activity remained high, up 7.3 percent year-on-year, while new home sales showed a downward trend.
Q：What is the performance of the real estate market in first-tier cities and some key cities?
A：Among the first-tier cities, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai maintained year-on-year growth. Among them, new houses in Beijing increased by more than 20% year-on-year in October, and second-hand houses in Shanghai increased by 35% year-on-year. The turnover of new houses in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has declined again since September, and the second-hand housing market is relatively stable. In the rental market, the demand for housing rental in key cities has fallen, and rents have fallen month-on-month, but rents in core cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have maintained a slight increase.
Q：What are the key recent policy changes in the real estate market?
A：After the implementation of the New Deal in 828, 17 cities have issued relevant rules. Among them, the arrangement for transitional projects is bounded by the 828 land announcement event, different cities have different policies on historical projects, the new pre-sale conditions are mainly based on the capping of the main structure as the pre-sale standard, the supervision of funds is lifted after completion and acceptance, and most cities allow eligible stock projects to use guarantees to replace regulatory funds.
Q：What are the requirements and implementation of the existing home sales system?
A：The new policy requires that the newly announced plots after 828 give priority to the sale of existing houses, and some cities such as Wuhan and Hangzhou have appropriate relaxation policies for historical projects. The proportion of deposit for existing houses is generally 1% to 5%. Mortgage lending is generally delayed until after the completion and acceptance of the project. The regulations on the payment of land transfer fees in installments are also different. Wuhan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other cities have made arrangements for household mortgage and installment delivery of land to ease the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.
Q：Judging from the latest data, what is the situation of the land market in third-and fourth-tier cities?
A：Third-and fourth-tier cities launched homesteads on a large scale in September, resulting in a year-on-year increase of about 90% in the transaction area and transfer fees of 300-tier cities in October. Nevertheless, on a cumulative basis, the area of residential land transactions in 300 City still fell 4% year-on-year, and the transfer fee fell 6%. At the same time, the proportion of transfer fees in key cities reached 57%, of which Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou ranked among the top three in the country.
Q：What was the situation of the first and second tier cities in October?
A：In October, there were relatively few land auctions in first-and second-tier cities, mainly concentrated in third-and fourth-tier cities, which put the average premium rate at a low this year, only 1.5 percent.
Q：What is the forecast for the real estate market at the end of the year?
A：The year-end purchase loan discount policy will help reduce the cost of residents to buy a house, overlay housing enterprises at the end of the year to push the promotion and core city high-quality projects into the market, is expected to form a certain support for new housing transactions, but the overall will continue to build the bottom trend. In terms of second-hand housing, transactions are expected to remain active, but due to weak market expectations, prices are expected to maintain a slight decline and volatility. There is a need to focus on the continuity of transaction repair in core cities and the performance of the land market at the end of the year.
Q：How is the sales performance of real estate enterprises from January to October 2026? What is the sales differentiation among real estate enterprises?
A：From January to October 2026, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies generally showed a downward trend, but the year-on-year decline was narrowing to 2537 billion yuan, 0.9 percentage points lower than the year-on-year decrease from January to September. The main reasons for the improvement in sales performance include the policy side of the mortgage discount policy to boost the confidence of home buyers, the supply side of the housing enterprises to focus on the promotion of the accelerated and lower base in the same period last year. The trend of sales differentiation among real estate companies continues. Some real estate companies have achieved sales in an environment of weak market confidence by virtue of stable funding, reliable delivery credit, high-quality core urban land storage layout and polished product power. Positive growth.
Q：What is the change in the number of housing sales camps?
A：From January to October 2026, the number of 100 billion club real estate companies was 6, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year; there were 58 10 billion club real estate companies, a decrease of 4 from the same period last year. From 2023 to January-October 2026, the overall sales camp showed a shrinking trend, with the number of 100 billion and 10 billion real estate companies declining.
Q：What are the reasons for the emergence of hot items?
A：The emergence of hot-selling projects is mainly due to factors such as policy-intensive bottoming and product strength in scarce locations. Policy combination fist continued to exert force, such as the purchase loan discount policy landed, the introduction of existing home sales rules and gradual implementation, lowering the threshold for buyers and strengthening the certainty of delivery. In addition, the total supply of improved high-quality new homes in the core area is limited, while the demand for home purchases continues to accumulate, and the contradiction between supply and demand has led to the concentration of hot sales.
Q：In the current real estate market, how does product power affect the emergence of hot-selling properties?
A：Product power plays a key role in the current real estate market. Housing enterprises through continuous iteration to upgrade product design, such as the whole area of the table to reconstruct the community three-dimensional space, improve the take-up rate, co-create house type and provide sinking courtyard, three-dimensional garden and high-specification club and other characteristics of the configuration, these have become an important factor in hot-selling real estate. With the improvement of product quality, product force has successfully created a number of hot-selling products and real estate.
Q：Why are real-life cashing and front-end operations the new selling points?
A：Real-life cashing and front-end operations transform certainty into a life scene at your fingertips, providing buyers with a clear and intuitive value experience. With a reasonable price strategy and high-quality product design, these factors together to build a hot-selling real estate quality conditions.
Q：What are the characteristics of the hot sale?
A：Hot-selling properties are mainly concentrated in the core sectors of hot cities, such as the core areas of first-and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu. They are usually built by head companies, with convenient transportation, mature peripheral facilities (such as Sam's supermarket, popular business district, etc.) and high-quality education and medical resources. Product power is its core competitiveness, real estate products have been carefully polished, with a high attractiveness.
Q：What is the land acquisition situation of real estate enterprises from January to October 2026?
A：The total amount of land taken by key housing enterprises continued to decline year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The total amount of land taken by the top 100 housing enterprises was 646.5 billion yuan, down 17.5 percent from the same period last year. In October, the proportion of land acquisition in second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities increased. After some cities issued detailed rules for the sale of existing houses, real estate companies actively used the window period to acquire land. At the same time, although the number of leading real estate enterprises to take land increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, while private enterprises to take land enthusiasm is higher.
Q：What are the characteristics of land enterprises?
A：The number of land taken by head housing enterprises is large but the intensity has slowed down, while the number of land taken by private enterprises is the same as last year but the enthusiasm has increased. Specific to the enterprise level, China Resources Land, Binjiang Group and other enterprises to take land momentum is strong, C & D real estate and other enterprises to take land efforts have also increased, while Poly Development and other head central state-owned enterprises to take the lead in the amount of land, but the overall pace of land acquisition has slowed down. Private enterprises such as Binjiang Group have a higher amount of land in Hangzhou and other places.
Q：What has changed in the regional pattern of land acquisition?
A：Resources continue to be concentrated in the head of central state-owned enterprises, such as Poly's development focus on the Yangtze River Delta region, China Resources Land in the country's dual-regional layout of the strongest, Yuexiu Group in the Guangdong Greater Bay Area deep plowing. Although the central and western regions have a large but low amount of land, they are still an important position in terms of volume for scale. At the same time, the first-tier cities in Guangzhou launched land, second-tier cities to become the main market for land this month.
Q：What is the difference between the strategies of the top ten housing enterprises in key cities?
A：Head central enterprises pursue multi-city balanced allocation of resources, local housing enterprises such as Yuexiu Group selectively enter key cities and dig deep into local advantages. For example, Poly and China Resources through the national layout of multiple cities at the same time to take land, with the help of cooperative development to reduce cost pressure; Binjiang Group, relying on local advantages, in the most familiar market deep cultivation. The central state-owned enterprises, represented by Jianfa real estate, are actively laying out in cities with good fundamentals to ensure that investment is guaranteed.
