中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
The meeting of the Chinese Academy pointed out that the real estate market picked up in May 2023, the second-hand housing market remained hot, and the new housing market, especially the high-end improved real estate, performed positively. In terms of policy, the State Council's Urban Renewal Plan emphasizes the activation of stock resources and the promotion of market transformation. Sales of the top 100 housing enterprises increased month-on-month, sales in first-tier cities increased significantly, and second-tier cities were dominated by high-quality projects. The core city of the land market high-quality land competition is fierce, the central state-owned enterprises and some private housing enterprises actively take land. Market differentiation is obvious, first-tier cities and some second-tier cities outstanding performance. The semi-annual market meeting will be held in July.
会议速览
The conference focused on the far-reaching impact of urban renewal planning on the real estate market, and emphasized the importance of activating the potential of urban stock resources and promoting the construction of good houses. The plan clarifies the goals of old house renovation and urban village renovation. At the same time, the 460 real estate policies issued by various regions focus on optimizing demand, destocking, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans, showing the policy's support for housing consumption.
Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities have promoted the trade-in policy. Shanghai's second-hand housing acquisition pilot has been expanded to many districts in the city center. Guangzhou has launched pilot activities to support the sale of old and buy new. Hunan, Foshan and other cities have also carried out housing trade-in. It is expected that more cities will learn from this model in the future. Special debt collection and storage of land and commercial housing, 28 provinces and cities use special debt collection and storage of idle land amount of more than 800 billion, the issuance speed since May showed an accelerated trend.
From January to May 2023, the second-hand housing market maintained a high degree of activity, with the number of transactions increasing by 19.6 compared with the same period last year, especially in first-tier cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, where second-hand housing transactions reached a monthly high in nearly five years. In the new housing market, sales in core cities were moderately repaired, but the differentiation between cities and projects intensified, such as Shenzhen's new housing transactions up 50% year-on-year, while Guangzhou's growth was only 7%. Rental market rents continued to decline, with average rents falling 0.1 per cent month-on-month in May. Overall, policy optimization has a positive impact on market heat, but market differentiation is evident.
The report pointed out that among China's 50 key cities, rents rose in 11 cities and fell in 39 cities in May, with rents falling by 0.63%. In contrast, the same period of 2025 fell by 0.47%. In the land market, the transfer area of the best management decreased by 2%, but the land auction heat of high-quality land in core cities continued, such as Shanghai and Hangzhou land premium rates as high as 44% and 42%. The national land transfer fee fell to-9%, the differentiation is significant. At the policy level, urban renewal and invigorating policies continue to advance, pre-planning core city new housing sales will be moderate repair, but inter-city and inter-project differentiation intensified. Second-hand housing turnover to maintain the downward trend, the number of listings decreased step by step, the price is expected to maintain a narrow range.
Sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased significantly month-on-month in May, and the cumulative decline in sales narrowed for the third consecutive month. The positive pattern of the market appears, high-quality land bidding hot, new housing, second-hand housing, land market linkage changes. Housing enterprises take advantage of the policy window period to create marketable products, marketing strategy is active, to promote sales growth. Although the number of 10 billion and 5 billion real estate enterprises has declined, the industry is saying goodbye to the old model of high leverage and high turnover and moving towards a new cycle of high-quality sustainable development.
Housing enterprises through the sale of fixed investment strategy to control the increment, reduce the volume of construction, ease the pressure of high inventory, while exploring the stock of assets operation, construction and other new models, to promote the industry to high-quality sustainable development transformation, May hot-selling projects show product strength jump and complete supporting facilities.
The real estate market in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has shown significant differentiation, and unique products and policy incentives have promoted the hot sales of some projects. Second-tier cities focus more on product quality, attracting buyers through high housing rates, innovative designs and scarce resource endowments, which together constitute the current hot sales in the real estate market.
Since the beginning of this year, high-end real estate has achieved rapid liquidation through small-scale multi-round marketing, combined with the strategy of identifying and financing customers. Although the overall scale of land acquisition by real estate enterprises declined year-on-year, but the core cities and hot spots of fierce competition, central state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition, private housing enterprises are deep plowing core cities to moderately supplement land.
The Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao regions have become hot spots for real estate enterprises, especially in core cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, where high total price plots are frequently found. Private housing enterprises such as Dahua Group, Binjiang Group and other active land, central state-owned enterprises also occupy most of the land. The trend of high total price plots in the form of consortia is obvious, and the meeting is planned to discuss more market dynamics.
要点回答
Q:How did the real estate market perform in May and what is the follow-up market trend?
A:In May, the heat of the second-hand housing market continued to rise, and the volume of transactions and house visits in many places remained high. The next step will be to interpret the market performance and the operating performance of housing enterprises. From a policy perspective, important policies this month include the Tenth Five-Year Plan for Urban Centers issued by the State Council. This is the first five-year special plan for urban renewal. It emphasizes the activation of the potential of urban stock resources and the close integration of real estate and urban resources to promote Develop new models, optimize the supply of affordable housing, increase and improve travel, etc., and specifically mentioned the key tasks of promoting the construction of good houses.
Q:What is the impact of recent urban renewal planning on the real estate market?
A:In the recent urban renewal plan, clear goals have been set for the old renovation, the renovation of villages in the city, and the renovation of old neighborhoods and factories. For example, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is planned to renovate 500000 old houses and 4000 urban village projects (compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan Period has decreased), and new models, good housing construction and urban-rural revitalization issues have been incorporated into the urban renewal framework. This makes urban updating an important starting point for the real estate market, aiming to activate the potential of stock resources and assets.
Q:What are the main directions and characteristics of real estate policies around the world?
A:From January to May this year, about 1460 real estate policies have been issued, mainly focusing on meeting the demand for house purchase, destocking, provident fund or house purchase subsidy policies, and continue to improve relevant supporting policies in urban centers. Among them, the provident fund policy has become one of the important means to support housing consumption in various places. Many places have greatly increased the amount of provident fund loans and expanded the scope of use, including the payment of second-hand housing down payment, property fees, and house purchase taxes.
Q:How is the implementation of the trade-in policy in some cities?
A:Shanghai's second-hand housing acquisition project made the latest progress in May. Pudong, Xuhui and Jing 'an districts have completed 523 sets of restoration acquisitions. Among them, Xuhui District has acquired 300 sets of old houses with living difficulties and no renovation conditions due to the combination of urban renewal and the renovation of two houses and one village. In addition, Guangzhou, Hunan, Foshan and other cities are also carrying out pilot housing trade-in policies. It is expected that more cities will learn from and open the second-hand replacement chain in the future.
Q:What is the progress of the special debt collection and storage of land?
A:By the end of May, 28 provinces and cities had collected and stored more than 800 billion of the idle land through special bonds, accounting for about 48% of the total. In terms of the proportion of first-and second-tier cities, it is about 36%, and the actual issuance accounts for 30%. At the same time, the acquisition of commercial housing with special bonds is also increasing, mainly for the construction of affordable housing.
Q:What is the current price and sales situation of second-hand housing and new housing market?
A:In terms of second-hand housing market prices, the cumulative decline from January to May was about 2.4, but the month-on-month decline narrowed to 0.32 in May, especially in core cities such as Shanghai, where average prices rose for three consecutive months. The second-hand housing market is highly active, with 141000 units sold in May, an increase of 19.6 per cent over the same period last year; in terms of new houses, the entry of high-end improved properties into the market led to a 0.16 per cent rise in new house prices month-on-month. On the whole, the second-hand and new home sales market maintained a high degree of activity, and demand was steadily released.
Q:What is the change in sales in the key monitoring cities in May compared with the previous few months?
A:In May, sales in key monitored cities fell 15 per cent year-on-year, an increase from 2 to 3 per cent in April and May. Among them, the transaction area of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai increased by 15% and 12% and 33% respectively compared with the same period last year; the pilot purchase of second-hand houses in Shanghai was expanded to the central area, supporting market confidence. New houses in Guangzhou increased by 7% year-on-year, and the transaction area of new and second-hand houses in Shenzhen increased by 50% and 18% year-on-year respectively.
Q:What has been the status of rent restoration in first-tier cities since May? In terms of the land market, what are the characteristics of the pace of land supply and premium rates of local governments?
A:In the core cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, rents continue to repair the situation. Among the 50 key cities, rents rose in 11 cities and fell in 39 cities, a decrease in the number of cities compared with April. Although overall rents have fallen by 0.63 per cent, the decline has narrowed by 0.47 percentage points compared with the same period in 2025. The local government continued its land transfer strategy for the same period last year, in which the area of residential land and suburban land fell by 2 to 24 per cent year-on-year, the transfer fee fell 36 per cent year-on-year, and the average premium rate remained relatively flat, but the monthly average premium rate for 300-storey residential land rebounded to 9.7 per cent. Among the first-tier cities, Shanghai and Hangzhou have higher premium rates for high-quality land transactions, driving up the national premium rate.
Q:What is the current trend of land transfer and market heat?
A:In May, the land transfer fee narrowed to about-9% year-on-year, mainly due to the low base effect last year and the continued heat of high-quality land plots in core cities. The premium rate of some plots in cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou exceeds 20%, while the land sentiment in Nanjing and Tianjin is relatively flat. Market turnover heat showed a pattern of differentiation, first-tier cities and some second-tier cities performed better.
Q:What are the expectations for future housing operations and market trends?
A:The policy level continues to stabilize the tone, urban renewal and revitalization policies continue to advance. With the clear urban renewal planning and the approaching sales node, the pace of high-quality projects in key cities has accelerated, and the marketing efforts of enterprises have increased, which is expected to drive the moderate repair of new housing sales in core cities. The transaction volume of the second-hand housing market continues to fall at a high level, and it is expected that it will remain stable in the future, and the price results will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations.
Q:What is the sales performance of housing enterprises from January to May?
A:From January to May, the total sales of top 100 real estate companies fell by 4.7 percentage points from January to April, narrowing for three consecutive months. This situation is mainly due to the fact that real estate enterprises are actively using the current policy window period and creating products that are on the right track for trial sales. By accelerating the introduction of new products and maintaining the sales rhythm, the decline has continued to narrow.
Q:What is the sales amount and sales area of equity of top 100 housing enterprises? Which housing enterprises saw sales growth in a single month in May?
A:The equity sales amount of top 100 housing enterprises is 8601 15,11 1.05 billion yuan, and the equity sales area is 41.361 million square meters. Including China Shipping, China Resources Land, Poly Real Estate, Beijing Urban Construction and other companies, the sales performance of these companies has increased year-on-year. Among them, Beijing City Jianxin launched just-needed and just-reformed real estate sales, driving the rapid growth of the month's performance.
Q:What marketing strategies are currently adopted by real estate companies to improve sales performance? What are the changes in the number of tens of billions of real estate companies and their implications?
A:Real estate companies adopt active marketing strategies, such as subscribing in advance to lock in customers and ensuring a high de-marketing effect at the opening. These strategies have laid a good foundation for performance growth. From January to May, the number of 10 billion real estate companies was 28, a decrease of 5 from the same period last year; at the same time, the number of 100 billion companies increased from 1 in the same period last year to 2. Although the size of tens of billions of companies and 5 billion companies has declined, this reflects the industry's departure from the old model of high leverage and high turnover and a new cycle of high-quality sustainable development.
Q:What is the current investment strategy and direction of the real estate enterprise?
A:Housing enterprises adopt a sales-based investment strategy, actively control the volume of construction and investment, while actively revitalizing the stock of assets. With traditional development and sales close to the ceiling, real estate companies are exploring new development models, such as stock asset operations, agent construction and other diversified areas, in order to achieve high-quality sustainable development.
Q:What are the characteristics of hot-selling projects in May and the differentiation between cities?
A:Hot-selling project product strength significantly improved, supporting complete, and housing enterprises in the marketing of customers to take an active strategy. In the first-tier cities, Beijing just needs to improve the project sales, Shanghai core luxury homes and parts of Shenzhen after the relaxation of restrictions on the purchase of high-end luxury homes and cost-effective projects. Second-tier cities are dominated by product quality, and the hot-selling projects in each city show obvious differentiation.
Q:What are the outstanding performance of hot items in terms of products?
A:Hot-selling projects strictly follow the new regulations and standards of "good houses", pay attention to space utilization, real-life display areas and model rooms, and the housing rate has also been greatly improved. For example, the housing rate of Guancui in Longhu, Shenzhen is close to 100%, which has enhanced consumers' confidence in buying houses.
Q:What are the innovations in the design of the Longyue Haixu Project of Beijing Urban Construction?
A:In order to maximize the use of the above-ground space, the Longyue Haixu Project adopted the design of underground power distribution station for the first time, placing supporting facilities that might otherwise occupy the above-ground space underground, thus reserving more greening and public activity areas on the ground. Although the positioning of the main apartment type just needs to be changed, it still pays attention to the overall quality of the above-ground space.
Q:How does the investment promotion project use Taiwan layout design to promote sales in Wuhan?
A:The investment promotion project has adopted the first platform layout design in Hankou District, keeping up with the market policy trend. Through this innovative design method, the project has achieved hot sales. The high removal rate reflects that the degree of product roll-in is one of the core factors that determine the hot sales of the project.
Q:How does scarce resource endowment affect the degree of hot sales of real estate projects?
A:Scarce resources such as high-quality schools, convenient subways, complete commercial facilities and non-replicable landscape resources (such as temporary parks, TOD projects, etc.) can accurately lock in the improvement of geography and high-end replacement customers. These factors play a key role in the blocks of the whole project, and through the combination with product roll-ins and resource endowments, the project may be wound up within minutes at the opening of the project.
Q:What are the characteristics of high-end real estate in marketing strategy?
A:High-end real estate usually adopts the strategy of small apartment size and small number of units to create tension, attract more potential customers, and lock in the source of customers in advance by means of subscription before opening, and the subscription rate can sometimes reach more than 3 to 10 times. This mode makes real estate enterprises have a greater confidence at the opening of the market. Coupled with factors such as product roll-in and scarce resources, they can often achieve liquidation in a short time.
Q:How was the land acquisition by housing enterprises from January to May?
A:From January to May, the total scale of land acquisition by real estate companies declined year-on-year, but the decline gradually narrowed compared with last year and last month. From a regional perspective, core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have ushered in a small spring of land acquisition. Although the overall scale of land acquisition has declined, the competition between hot cities and land plots is still fierce. At the same time, the central state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition, while private real estate enterprises tend to deepen the core cities and moderately supplement the land, the scale of land acquisition is reduced compared with the same period last year, but in some high-quality land is still positive.
Q:What are the hot spots for real estate enterprises?
A:The Yangtze River Delta region continues to maintain a high-heat trend, and real estate companies have a strong demand for high-quality land. Many cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou have auctioned high-premium land. Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao region also because of Yuexiu real estate at the beginning of the year to raise the overall amount of land. In addition, from the perspective of key cities, the head housing enterprises mainly focus on their own core layout of urban land, while private housing enterprises focus on deep-cultivated urban land. First-tier cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other places are still the key areas for housing enterprises to take land.

中指研究院
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