催化密集出现,二季度创新药怎么看? 科创创新药ETF国泰投资价值解析
文章语言:
简
繁
EN
Share
Minutes
原文
会议摘要
The live broadcast shared investment opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, pointing out that the sector was active in the second quarter under the catalysis of academic conferences and clinical data disclosure, and attracted market attention. Over the past few years, the sector has risen significantly with improved liquidity and policy support, and the current valuation has returned to reasonable and cost-effective investment. Sea authorization events and health insurance policy support have become growth drivers. Investors can grasp the long-term growth of the sector through products such as the Innovation Drug ETF.
会议速览
The dialogue focused on investment opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, reviewing the positive earnings performance of the sector in April over the past three years, analyzing the catalytic effect of the second quarter academic conference on the sector, and looking forward to the market support that clinical data disclosure may bring in the future.
After the 924 in 2024, the innovative pharmaceutical sector rose significantly due to the improved liquidity environment and achieved excess returns. In May 2025, the big BD event of innovative drug company attracted market attention and its share price rose sharply. In the second half of the market game out of the sea is expected, the third quarter share price continued to rise, the fourth quarter due to the authorization event less than expected, the market reaction was flat. In April 2026, the sector experienced a short-term rebound, with current valuations close to May 2025 levels and chips and valuations fully digested.
Innovative pharmaceutical enterprises face the opportunity to go to sea, due to overseas multinational pharmaceutical enterprises patent cliff led to revenue impact, domestic health insurance policy continued to support innovative drugs, improve the approval rate and commercial health insurance catalog coverage, and jointly promote the development of the pharmaceutical sector.
Since the launch of the generic drug collection policy in 2018, it has gradually reduced the proportion of generic drug revenue of large domestic pharmaceutical companies, prompting enterprises to transform to innovative drugs. Domestic innovative drugs show efficiency and cost advantages, such as shortened preclinical research cycles, low research and development costs, fast patient recruitment, etc., contributing about 30% of the global innovative drug pipeline in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating that the competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs is gradually emerging.
This paper discusses the impact of important academic conferences at home and abroad on the disclosure of clinical data of innovative drugs, as well as the strong support of policies for the development of innovative drugs in China, including the inclusion of biomedicine in the emerging pillar industries of the two sessions, and the State Council issued some opinions on improving the drug price formation mechanism, which provide a good development environment for innovative drug enterprises. At the same time, the historical changes in the proportion of positions held in the pharmaceutical sector are mentioned, indicating the possible future space for additional positions.
Discussed the significant growth of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies going overseas, including the high amount of BD events, the increase in the amount of external authorization, and the improvement of quality. These trends reflect the increased competitiveness of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies in the international market and become the performance growth of the pharmaceutical sector. Important driving force.
Investment in the pharmaceutical sector has recovered significantly, the number of clinical trials of innovative drugs has increased significantly, academic conferences and clinical data disclosure in the second quarter have become the focus of catalysis, and domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies have performed brightly in international conferences to enhance industry confidence.
The performance of the CRE Innovation Drug Index and its related ETF Cathay Pacific was discussed, highlighting the better-than-expected performance of sub-sectors such as CRO, as well as the high order boom in the pharmaceutical sector. It is pointed out that the growth of the innovative drug sector is good, the chip congestion is low, the policy support and valuation is reasonable, and it is recommended that investors focus on the innovation drug ETF Cathay Pacific and other varieties.
要点回答
Q:At the current point in time, why is the innovative drug sector worthy of investors' attention?
A:We review the performance of the CRE Innovation Drug Index over the past few years and find that the index typically yields positive returns in April each year, which is related to the catalytic effect of some of the blockbuster academic conferences in the second quarter on the sector. The recent ACR academic conference in April and the Eco academic conference that may be held at the end of May may disclose new clinical data of domestic innovative drugs, bringing further catalysis to the plate. Although the short-term market in the relevant academic conference report catalog may appear after the release of funds, but in the long run, the follow-up clinical data results are still expected to support and catalyze the plate market.
Q:Why does the innovative drug sector receive market attention after the 924 of the market in 2024? How does the market respond to the expected changes in innovative drugs going to sea?
A:After the 924 market in 2024, with the domestic and foreign monetary and fiscal policies leading to the improvement of the liquidity environment in the domestic A- share market, the innovative drug sector in the context of increased liquidity to follow the market a significant rise. The innovative pharmaceutical sector was more sensitive to logic such as interest rate cuts, so it achieved more significant outperformance in the context of the time. Since the second half of last year, the market has been constantly gaming the expectation of domestic innovative drugs going to sea, and the share prices of related pipelines and companies with potential to go to sea have risen sharply in the third and fourth quarters. However, with some BD events and the landing of external authorization, due to the down payment is not as expected or the strength of the partner is not strong enough, the market reaction is relatively flat, the plate chips have been digested and adjusted.
Q:What are the major events in the field of innovative drugs in China in the past 25 years?
A:In May 25, an important external authorization (BD) event occurred in domestic innovative drug companies. The down payment reached a new high of US $1 billion, which triggered a significant increase in the market's attention to domestic innovative drugs going overseas.
Q:What is the current valuation of the CRE Innovation Drug Index?
A:At present, the PS (market sales rate) valuation of the CRE Innovation Drug Index has returned to the level near May 25, close to the valuation level when the important BD event catalyzed in May last year, which means that the valuation and chips of the current sector have undergone a more full adjustment.
Q:What are the advantages of the innovative pharmaceutical sector at this stage?
A:At this stage, the layout of innovative medicine plate has a certain cost-effective advantage. From the long-term demand-side logic, innovative drugs out to sea is the biggest catalyst, overseas multinational pharmaceutical companies face patent cliff problems, need to supplement revenue growth through global acquisitions of best-selling pipelines. At the same time, the domestic health insurance support for innovative drugs continued, the approval rate increased, the success rate of negotiations is also higher, especially some innovative drugs are included in the health insurance catalog, by commercial health insurance to further support the payment.
Q:Who dominates the pricing of innovative drugs in the category C catalogue? What is the attitude of domestic medical insurance policy towards innovative drugs?
A:The pricing of innovative drugs in the Category C catalogue is dominated by commercial insurance companies and is also regulated by the Health and Wellness Commission. Insurance companies negotiate pricing directly with pharmaceutical companies. The domestic health insurance policy clearly supports the attitude of innovative drugs, helping patients to pay high medical expenses through commercial health insurance, and including some innovative drugs with high value and high treatment costs into the catalogue.
Q:What is the impact of generic drug collection on the pharmaceutical sector?
A:Generic drug collection in the past few years on the demand side of the pharmaceutical sector to form a greater suppression, but by 2025, after multiple rounds of collection, generic drug varieties coverage is more complete, which promotes the transformation of domestic pharmaceutical companies from generic drugs to innovative drugs.
Q:How is the performance of domestic large pharmaceutical enterprises in the transformation of innovative drugs?
A:Large domestic pharmaceutical enterprises are actively transforming innovative drugs, the proportion of generic drug revenue is gradually decreasing, the revenue growth momentum brought by innovative drugs is gradually emerging, the overall performance is positive growth, the proportion of generic drug revenue has dropped to less than 50%.
Q:What are the competitive advantages of domestic innovative drugs?
A:Domestic innovative drugs have significant efficiency and cost advantages, the pre-clinical research cycle is short, the clinical trial application policy supports the pressure drop of the innovative drug research and development cycle, while the research and development cost is only 1/3 to 1/2 of the global average, and the recruitment of patients is faster, so it shows obvious advantages in the whole process.
Q:What is the status of domestic innovative drugs in the global innovative drug pipeline?
A:As of the first three quarters of 2025, China has contributed about 30% of the world's innovative drug pipeline, of which about one-third are cutting-edge next-generation therapies, showing the gradual emergence of the competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs.
Q:How to support the development of domestic innovative drugs at the policy level?
A:The policy side has intensively introduced a number of measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, and the biomedical industry, together with integrated circuits, aerospace and other industries, has been included in the emerging pillar industries. The State Council also issued opinions on improving the drug price formation mechanism, emphasizing the establishment of a tiered pricing system with clinical value and innovation as the core, and providing substantial support for high-level innovation.
Q:What is the current position of the domestic pharmaceutical sector?
A:Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic A- share pharmaceutical sector has undergone a continuous adjustment, and the current position in all funds is about 8.4 per cent, compared to the high in 2021 (14.5 per cent), which is currently at a historically low position and there is room for additional positions.
Q:What are the key events that will catalyze the performance of innovative drug companies in the future? What are the short-term events that may catalyze the innovative drug sector in the near future?
A:We believe that the potential catalytic event may be the performance of innovative pharmaceutical companies, including some future heavy academic conferences and the disclosure of clinical data. In addition, the sea of domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprises is the most important industrial catalytic direction in the future, because the pressure of medical insurance payment capacity and the low penetration rate of commercial health insurance, and the sea can bring important performance growth momentum. Short-term catalytic events mainly come from major academic conferences in the second quarter, such as the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (ACR) at the end of April and the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ECOG) in May. These meetings will disclose a large number of updated data on candidate drugs, some of which are based on Chinese population research may become the focus of market attention, highlighting the domestic innovative drug research and development iteration speed and competitive strength.
Q:What are the specific results or trends in the overseas cooperation of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises?
A:According to the data, 7 of the top 10 global pharmaceutical transactions in 2025 will be participated by domestic enterprises, and the BD down payment of domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprises reached more than US $1 billion in May last year, a new high. In the first quarter of this year, the total amount of BD for domestic innovative drugs to go to sea was close to US $60 billion, with a down payment of more than US $3 billion, showing a high growth trend compared with about 40% for the whole year of 2025. At the same time, the amount of external authorization has increased significantly, with an average total amount of more than 2.7 billion US dollars, a record high, reflecting the enhanced competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs.
Q:What is the current investment situation in the pharmaceutical sector? How does this affect the innovative drug pipeline?
A:This year, investment in the pharmaceutical sector returned to a high level, and the company set up a growth layer to support the listing of unprofitable innovative pharmaceutical companies. The activity of innovative drug financing in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly, and the amount of biopharmaceutical investment is also growing. Domestic biomedical investment reached $0.75 billion billion in March, up 7%-99% year-on-year, totaling $2.46 billion in the first quarter, the highest in a single quarter since the second quarter of 2022. With the investment repair, the number of clinical trials and pipelines of innovative drugs in China is expected to rise significantly in the future.
Q:In the latest LBA data, what is the selection of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical enterprises?
A:This year, 13 studies from 12 innovative drug companies in China were selected into the LBA, a record high. In the next SO meeting, there may be some important clinical data catalysis, especially for the median generation period and no progress PFS data of PDYVGF double-resistant varieties, which will support the whole plate if it exceeds expectations.
Q:Which innovative drug-related ETF products can investors focus on?
A:Investors can focus on the innovative drug ETF Cathay Pacific and the innovative drug ETF Cathay Pacific and other varieties. The CRO Innovation Drug Index focuses on small and medium-cap biotech companies on the CRO board, while the CRO sector has also been catalyzed by recent performance, with strong growth in orders on hand by leading companies, showing potential growth potential for future growth.
Q:How is the performance of the CRE Innovation Drug Index? What is your investment advice for the current innovative drug sector?
A:From September 24, 2024 to September 3, 2025, the CRE Innovative Drugs Index outpaced the Hong Kong Innovative Drugs and Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs Index to a 141 per cent increase. In the case of plate market catalysis and sea events, heavy BD and clinical experimental data disclosure exceeded expectations, the company's innovative drug index and related ETFs such as Cathay Pacific related varieties may be the direction of market focus. At present, the market is in the high volatility stage above 4000 points, it is recommended to pay attention to the growth attribute of the strong innovative drug track, because its chip congestion is not high, and the pharmaceutical investment environment activity gradually repair. Against the backdrop of better-than-expected performance of leading companies, we can focus on the innovative drug sector at this stage, with core targets including the CRE Innovation Drug Index Cathay Pacific and the Innovation Drug ETF Cathay Pacific.

国泰基金
Follow





