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Duolingo (DUOL.US) 2025年第四季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Duolingo prioritizes AI advancements and product enhancements for user growth, aiming for 100 million DAUs by 2028. Monetization strategies include in-app purchases and ads, with 20% revenue growth projected for 2026. The company maintains a dominant market position, focusing on long-term value creation.
会议速览
Duolingo ISS Q4 2025 Earnings Webcast: New CFO and Financial Insights
Duolingo ISS presents its fourth quarter 2025 earnings, introducing a new CFO and discussing forward-looking statements, financial measures, and shareholder letter details, all available on the IR website.
CFO Transition & Strategic Growth Plan for Duolingo
A new CFO is introduced, emphasizing a strategic shift towards aggressive user growth and AI-driven learning advancements, prioritizing the expansion of the active learner base over immediate profitability to capitalize on long-term value.
2026 Financial Guidance and Strategic Investment Plans for Enhanced Growth
The dialogue outlines the company's 2026 financial projections, including 10-12% bookings growth, 15-18% revenue growth, and a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin. It highlights strategic investments in AI features, sales, and marketing, alongside a $400 million share buyback authorization. The guidance reflects a narrowing gap between estimates and actuals, aiming for improved capital allocation and execution of strategic initiatives.
Guidelines for Participating in a Virtual Q&A Session
Instructions are provided on how to ask questions during a virtual meeting, including using the 'Raise Hand' button, accepting promotion to panelist, and guidelines for follow-up questions.
AI-Driven Innovation and Strategic Shifts for User Growth in Education
AI is revolutionizing education by enhancing teaching quality and making learning as engaging as gaming. Priorities include improving language teaching, enhancing free user experience, and investing in new subjects to boost user growth.
Chess's Rapid Growth and Potential for Video Call Integration
Discusses chess's significant growth with 7 million daily active users, positioning as the second largest platform despite not ranking on the App Store, and hints at future developments including video call features.
Strategic Roadmap for Integrating Video Calls into Super Duolingo
Discussed the rationale behind transitioning video call features from Max to Super Duolingo, emphasizing cost reduction, customer benefit, and strategic experimentation. Plans include potential metering of video calls to balance revenue and user engagement, with a focus on leveraging strong financial positions for competitive advantage.
2026 Financial Reprioritization and User Growth Acceleration
Discussed reprioritization for 2026 focusing on user growth acceleration due to deceleration trends and increased AI conviction. Guidance indicates a 20% Dow growth, with Q1 tracking ahead, suggesting business health despite tough comparables. Confidence in pursuing higher growth rates for future years is highlighted.
Pursuing Growth and Enhanced Profitability: Scaling Business to Achieve Billion-Dollar Milestones
The dialogue discusses the company's ambition to significantly grow its business, aiming for a $2.5 billion valuation with over $700 million in Adjusted EBITDA. It highlights the strategic focus on scaling expenses and monetization to achieve these targets, emphasizing a long-term vision and gradual implementation.
Duolingo's Growth Potential and Upcoming Product Enhancements
The dialogue reassures concerns about market saturation and competition, highlighting Duolingo's strong market position and untapped growth potential. It outlines plans for innovative features like speaking adventures and more advanced language content, set to roll out in the coming months, aiming to enhance user engagement and learning outcomes.
Refining Social Strategy and Enhancing Video Call Engagement for Duolingo Growth
The discussion revolves around adjusting Duolingo's social marketing approach to maintain virality amidst evolving algorithms, noting a shift from dominating TikTok views to a more consistent but less prominent presence. The dialogue also highlights the success of video call improvements, evidenced by increased words spoken per user, and the introduction of prompts to encourage deeper engagement, fostering user advocacy and potential reacceleration of bookings.
Monetizing Freely: Duolingo's Journey to Optimal Revenue Without Harming User Growth
Discusses the challenge of increasing monetization without adding friction, exploring alternative methods like feature enhancements and customization sales, aiming to boost subscriber rates from 10% to levels seen in successful freemium models, while maintaining user growth.
Understanding Cross-App User Growth: Duolingo's Chess Expansion and User Base Dynamics
The dialogue discusses Duolingo's Chess app growth, emphasizing the integration of users from the main language learning platform. It explains that the majority of Chess users are existing Duolingo users, highlighting the app's ability to attract both cross-platform users and new users. The conversation predicts an increase in Chess's independent user base over time.
Outlook on Bookings Growth Amidst Video Call Test and Pricing Changes
Discussed factors impacting bookings outlook, including user deceleration, monetization strategies, and upcoming video call test impacts. Emphasized the need for time to evaluate product changes and user reactions. Mentioned plans for extensive price experimentation, including higher and lower prices, with outcomes yet to be determined.
Balancing Monetization and User Growth for Medium-Term Success
The dialogue explores the strategic balance between ramping up monetization and maintaining user engagement to achieve medium-term goals, questioning if elevated marketing and delayed monetization are sustainable for reaching a million daily active users.
Strategies for Enhancing Monetization and Scaling Efficiency in a Profitable Business Model
The discussion focuses on improving monetization through direct ad sales and in-app purchases, aiming to increase ad quality and revenue without raising ad load. It emphasizes the potential for scaling the business efficiently, maintaining profitability, and generating significant EBITDA and free cash flow.
Addressing Market Concerns on AI Translation Impact and User Growth Stabilization
A company reassures stakeholders that AI translation tools have not affected user growth, attributing user retention to learning motivation rather than translation quality. It highlights ongoing improvements in user experience and anticipates modest user growth acceleration by year-end.
Duolingo's Strategy on Video Call Inclusion in Subscription Plans and Max's Performance
The discussion focuses on Duolingo's decision to integrate video call features into its Super plan, driven by reduced costs and the goal to expand the user base for monetization, rather than performance metrics from the Max plan. The company is optimistic about Max's numbers but aims for broader accessibility of video calls.
Navigating Video Call Integration in Super Service and Its Impact on ARPU Trends
The dialogue discusses uncertainty surrounding the rollout of video call features to the Super service tier, focusing on potential impacts on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) trends. It outlines strategies to mitigate negative effects on premium service sales, including possible metering of video call usage, ensuring guidance remains within predefined bounds.
Exploring New Distribution Channels for Math Learning: Duolingo's Strategy for School Markets
The dialogue discusses Duolingo's approach to entering the math learning market, focusing on schools as a viable channel. It highlights the strategy of positioning the product as a supplementary tool to tutoring services, leveraging the high propensity for parents to pay for educational support, and the potential for significant growth in the K-12 sector.
Retention Rates and AI Risks: Insights into Educational Platform Stability and Future Challenges
Discussed retention rates stability and potential improvement due to multi-subject engagement, emphasizing AI's role in accelerating competition risks by lowering entry barriers for new competitors in educational platforms.
AI's Role in App Development and Duolingo's Competitive Edge
The dialogue explores the impact of AI on app development speed, emphasizing Duolingo's complexity and competitive barriers. It discusses AI's potential to level the playing field but highlights Duolingo's robust distribution and free product as significant advantages against new competitors. The conversation also touches on the challenges new entrants face in performance marketing and the difficulty of replicating Duolingo's sophisticated features.
Philosophical Views on AI Leadership and Mobile App Engagement in the Evolving Tech Landscape
The dialogue explores the strategic considerations of leading in AI within applications versus cooperating with external platforms, emphasizing the importance of visual engagement in maintaining user interest. It also discusses the historical challenges and successes of adapting to new platforms and the commitment to integrating AI technologies swiftly while ensuring a visually engaging user experience.
CEO Expresses Excitement for Duolingo's Future and Acknowledges New Leadership
The CEO thanks participants for insightful questions, expresses enthusiasm for the company's long-term prospects, and acknowledges the new leadership's deep understanding of the business, signaling a positive outlook for Duolingo's future.
要点回答
Q:Who is Jillian Munson and what is her role at Duolingo?
A:Jillian Munson is the new CFO of Duolingo, having previously served as a long-standing board member and chair of the audit committee. She is taking over the role from Matt Rupa, who has stepped down as CFO.
Q:What are the financial achievements of Duolingo for the reported quarter?
A:For the reported quarter, Duolingo surpassed 100 million daily active users, achieved over a billion dollars in bookings, and generated more than $300 million in Adjusted EBITDA.
Q:How does Luis von Ahn describe the impact of AI on the future of learning?
A:Luis von Ahn is convinced that the accelerating advances in AI will fundamentally change the way people learn, presenting a huge opportunity for Duolingo to redefine the future of learning.
Q:What is the expected impact of the strategy on DAU growth and business profitability in the short term?
A:The implementation of the strategy is expected to lead to slower bookings growth and lower profitability in the short term.
Q:What is Luis von Ahn's long-term vision for Duolingo as mentioned in the shareholder letter?
A:Luis von Ahn's long-term vision for Duolingo is to build a future where every person on Earth has access to the best quality of education and time spent learning is enjoyable, with Duolingo as a platform to build that future.
Q:What is the 2026 guidance provided by Duolingo for bookings, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA?
A:The 2026 guidance provided by Duolingo includes bookings growth of 10% to 12%, revenue growth of 15% to 18%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin around 25%. For the RQ1 guidance, the figures are 11% bookings growth, 25% revenue growth, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%.
Q:What is the reason for the anticipated decline in profitability and how does it relate to AI?
A:The anticipated decline in profitability is due to plans to share AI features with a greater portion of the user base, which is expected to result in lower gross margins.
Q:What is the anticipated trajectory for adjusted EBITDA margins in 2026?
A:The adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to decline three points sequentially from Q1 to Q2 and then improve through the back half of the year, with Q4 being the highest margin quarter.
Q:What is the buyback authorization mentioned by Duolingo and what does it signify?
A:Duolingo's board has authorized a buyback of up to $400 million in the company's shares, representing good capital allocation discipline, and is expected to be executed in the coming year.
Q:What are the anticipated changes in teaching quality and learning experience due to AI?
A:AI is expected to significantly improve teaching quality, making it as good as having a one-on-one tutor and as engaging as a mobile game. It will allow for specialized support to learners, answering their questions and addressing their confusions in real-time, enhancing the learning experience.
Q:How is AI expected to improve language learning and what is the anticipated user base for this feature?
A:AI will enhance language learning by enabling better practice of conversations through features like video calls, with the example of 'Lily.' This is anticipated to improve how well people learn and significantly benefit the market, with an estimated user base of about a billion people worldwide learning math.
Q:What are the priorities mentioned for achieving 100 million daily active users?
A:To reach 100 million daily active users, priorities include investing in teaching languages better, improving the free user experience to remove friction, and growing new subjects like chess, which already has 7 million daily active users, and investing in new growth engines.
Q:How will the introduction of video calls impact the different Duolingo subscription tiers, and what is the company's approach to testing this change?
A:The company plans to introduce video calls into the Super Duolingo tier, as the cost of video calls has significantly decreased. There will be an AB test to determine the impact of adding video calls; if necessary, the company may meter video call access. The decision to introduce video calls in the Super tier is based on the goal of teaching a larger number of people and not on defensive strategies against competition.
Q:Has the company's financial guidance for 2026 changed from the previous call, and why?
A:Since the last call, the company has seen continued deceleration in user growth and an increased conviction in AI, leading to a new focus on accelerating user growth. Consequently, the company's guidance for 2026 has changed to prioritize user growth, expecting it to surpass previously anticipated levels.
Q:What are the potential reasons for the deceleration in growth mentioned by the speaker?
A:The potential reasons for the deceleration in growth mentioned by the speaker are the law of large numbers, an over focus on monetization, market saturation, and competitive intensity.
Q:How does the company measure market saturation and what are the current daily active user percentages in the US, UK, and Germany?
A:The company measures market saturation by looking at the percentage of daily active users in a given country compared to the size of the internet base of that country. In the US, 2% of all internet users are daily active users on Duolingo; in the UK, it's 3%, and in Germany, it's 4%. The company believes they can get much higher penetration rates than what is currently observed.
Q:Why is the company not particularly concerned about user churn and what has remained constant regarding this issue?
A:The company is not particularly concerned about user churn because the most common reason for users to stop using Duolingo is that they stop learning, which has been consistent for a while. They do not see this as a major indicator of issues with their features.
Q:What is the new feature, speaking adventures, and when should we expect its rollout?
A:Speaking adventures is a new feature described as a game where users have to complete tasks, often involving speaking. The feature is free for all users and is currently in testing, with plans to scale it sometime mid-year, probably appearing in users' apps between now and mid-year.
Q:What improvements are being made to theDuolingo app in terms of advanced content and when will they be available?
A:The company is excited about the upcoming improvements in advanced content. Within a month or two, all courses teaching the top 9 languages, which cover more than 90% of daily active users, will have content up to Duolingo score 129. This content is particularly important as it is the score needed for a knowledge job in the language. The company plans to continue improving this content over the remainder of the year.
Q:What is the social strategy's impact on user growth and how has the video call feature been improved?
A:The social strategy has impacted user growth by creating viral marketing through videos that get millions of views. Although the virality isn't as high as before due to algorithm changes, the company continues to strive for as much virality as possible. Video call improvements have been positive, with a monotonically increasing graph of words spoken per user, indicating better conversation elicitation from users.
Q:How is the company planning to evolve the free user experience into a monetization strategy?
A:The company acknowledges that it has both undermonetized and overmonetized simultaneously and is looking for new ways to monetize users without adding friction. They are exploring methods such as adding features or customizations that don't involve friction. The goal is to increase the percentage of monthly active users who pay from the current 10% to a more competitive level, and they are confident in achieving this through various monetization strategies that may not rely on increasing friction.
Q:What factors are attributed to the projected bookings growth for the upcoming period?
A:The projected bookings growth for the upcoming period is attributed to a continuation of user deceleration and more careful monetization strategies, which together account for the expected growth, as mentioned in the guidance.
Q:How long is expected to pass before the company knows if the new strategies are successful?
A:It is expected to take a considerable amount of time before the company knows if the new strategies are successful, primarily due to the need for product changes and observing user reactions, which can be time-consuming.
Q:Are there any plans for pricing changes in the upcoming year and how will these be evaluated?
A:There are plans for pricing changes in the upcoming year, with the company engaging in AB testing to evaluate different price points. However, it is not confirmed that the price of 'super' will increase due to video calls, pending the results of ongoing tests.
Q:Does the medium-term goal of reaching a million daily active users assume continued elevated marketing spending and low monetization?
A:The medium-term goal of reaching a million daily active users does assume continued elevated marketing spending and a focus on monetization strategies that may not ramp up significantly. The company hopes to increase marketing efficiency over time and believes that as the user base grows, the business will become larger and more profitable.
Q:What strategies are mentioned for improving monetization and increasing the business scale?
A:Strategies for improving monetization and increasing business scale include direct ad sales, in-app purchases, especially for avatars, and continuing to build a strong, profitable business model. The company is making an investment to descale some operations to facilitate scaling without needing to hire significantly more staff or spend more on marketing.
Q:What is the company's stance on ad load and the quality of ads displayed on its platform?
A:The company's stance on ad load is that it will not increase, and efforts are being made to display better quality ads. Although the current ads may not be high quality, the company is improving ad quality by moving away from network ads to direct deals with higher quality and paying ads. Additionally, there is an attempt to align ads with users' interests, such as displaying ads in the language they are learning, aiming to enhance user engagement.
Q:How does the company view the impact of AI translation on user deceleration?
A:The company is not concerned about AI translation impacting user deceleration. They believe that their user base is not significantly affected by AI translation tools since their users engage with the platform for learning purposes or as a hobby, and they have not observed this factor impacting user churn or dissatisfaction.
Q:What changes have been made to improve the user experience and what is the data showing about the effectiveness of these changes?
A:To improve the user experience, the company has implemented features like 'Explain My Answer,' which has been positively received by users. However, while there has been an uptick in feature usage, no significant acceleration in daily active users (DAUs) has been observed as a result of these changes. The company expects modest results towards the end of the year.
Q:What are the retention and renewal numbers like for Duolingo Max, and how are they guiding the strategy for video call integration?
A:The retention numbers for Duolingo Max are quite good and the company is happy with them. The strategy for video call integration is not primarily driven by Max numbers but rather the belief that video call should be accessible to a larger user base. The plan is to offer video call for free in more affordable packages rather than just having it in Max, to potentially increase the user base that can be monetized.
Q:What is the strategy behind integrating video call into the Super plan?
A:The strategy behind integrating video call into the Super plan is to make video call available in a more affordable package, potentially free, to increase the user base and facilitate monetization. The entire decision for integrating video call into Super is based on the belief that it is the right thing for users rather than just a numbers game with Max, where the current numbers are satisfactory.
Q:What assumptions are being made in the guidance for fiscal 2026 regarding the rollout of video call to Super and its impact?
A:The guidance for fiscal 2026 does not include precise assumptions for the impact of video call being rolled out to Super. The company itself does not know the exact outcome of this initiative. However, they plan to conduct a test and ensure that they stay within the bounds of their guidance. They have different ways to manage potential outcomes, such as metering video call access in Super versus unlimited access in Max if the former proves to be harmful to the Max business.
Q:What are the plans for Duolingo to enter the math tutoring market and through which channels?
A:Duolingo's plan to enter the math tutoring market is to start by making their math product available, which they consider almost ready. Initially, they intend to position it as a supplemental resource for schools rather than seeking deals with school districts. They anticipate that this approach will allow them to reach a large number of students who receive some form of external help. In the long term, they believe there is a high propensity for parents to pay for math help, which could present a viable revenue stream.
Q:What are the prospects for new entrants in the language learning app market due to advancements in AI?
A:Despite AI making it easier to create competing products, the prospects for new entrants in the language learning app market are challenging. The existing market leader, Duolingo, enjoys a large market share and has a sophisticated user base that new entrants find difficult to penetrate. Even when new apps attempt to grow through performance marketing, they often fail to compete with Duolingo's free product offering. Consequently, new entrants often resort to a paywall model, which limits their growth. The complexity and uniqueness of Duolingo's app also pose a barrier to replication, making it difficult for new competitors to emerge and succeed on a large scale.
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