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“银华三点半”特别策划——银华基金2026年度投资策略
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会议摘要
In 2026, the global and domestic economic environment is favorable for the capital market, with loose fiscal and monetary policies. AI investment and domestic demand policies boost total demand. The profit growth rate of A-shares is rising, with foreign capital flowing back in and ample room for valuation improvement. In terms of investment strategy, focus on growth before value, pay attention to technological innovation, manufacturing going global, and consumer sectors. Fixed income and asset allocation provide a stable safety net. The macro environment is conducive to investments in AI and international expansion, emphasizing controlling drawdowns and maximizing long-term returns, achieving stable returns through precision management.
会议速览
2026 Fixed Income and Investment Strategy Outlook: AI Driving Global Economic Growth
The conversation focuses on the investment strategy for 2026, emphasizing opportunities in fixed income investments, analyzing the supportive role of loose overseas fiscal and monetary policies in achieving a soft landing for the global economy, the boost to overall demand and spillover effects on the industrial chain from AI investments, the dominant position of Asian markets in AI trade, and the main theme of advanced manufacturing and technological innovation investments under domestic policy guidance.
Analysis of the increase in consumption rate and economic resilience in China under the 15th Five-Year Plan.
The dialogue discussed China's policy orientation in the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing domestic demand and increasing the consumption rate of residents. It pointed out the reasons for the current low consumption rate and possible policy catalysts in the future. Despite the challenges of repairing residents' balance sheets and falling house prices after the pandemic, the Chinese economy has shown resilience, especially in optimizing export structures and increasing the export share of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. It is expected that exports will continue to play a strong supportive role in 2026.
Analysis of the impact of the recovery of the real estate market and the consumer price index in 2026-2027 on domestic demand and A-share profitability.
The conversation analyzed the bottoming out and rebound in both quantity and price of the real estate market in 2026-2027, as well as the positive impact of the PPI index returning to normal on domestic demand and the profitability of A-share listed companies. It pointed out that the increase in the proportion of overseas income will enhance profit stability, and predicted that ample liquidity and the return of foreign capital will support the equity market.
Market Style Forecast for 2026: Growth before value, focusing on opportunities for market style transformation.
The conversation analyzed the market style of 2026, believing that growth style will dominate in the early stage, but the overall market style is expected to have an advantage throughout the year. With the economic recovery, cyclical and consumer sectors will show long-term value in the allocation. Historical data shows that when profits of A-shares rise, the market trend is more closely related to profit, and the market P/E ratio has dropped to historical lows, indicating that a style transition market may occur at some stage.
Asset Allocation Strategy for 2026: Focus on the recovery of manufacturing, technology, and consumer sectors.
The conversation discussed asset allocation strategies for the year 2026, emphasizing the supply chain advantages of the manufacturing industry and the dividend of engineers, the expansion of AI applications in the technology sector, and the allocation opportunities brought by the low valuation of the consumer sector. At the same time, attention is paid to price elasticity after the supply side clearing, as well as the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed internet platform companies. Fixed income assets are seen as a stable safety net, with stocks preferred over convertible bonds. The overall strategy focuses on the macro environment and structural opportunities in A-shares, with the expectation that profit recovery will be the main driving force.
Yinhua Fund shares its multi-asset investment philosophy and drawdown control strategy.
The concept of Yinhua Fund's multi-asset investment was shared, that is, to pursue long-term profit maximization on the basis of controlling drawdowns. By means of asset allocation, team culture, multi-strategy alpha, and intelligent empowerment, the increase in investment manager's profits can be achieved. It emphasizes the fine management of cross-industry and cross-asset cost-effectiveness comparison, industry rotation, profit-taking operations, high win-rate investment decision-making, and fixed-income combination, aiming to provide investors with stable and risk-appropriate investment products. Subsequently, experts in the growth and prosperity investment fields will introduce their product management philosophy and future investment strategies.
High- and medium-wave product investment strategy: Focus on growth industries and industry trends.
The investment strategy for medium and high volatility products was shared, emphasizing active weighting of warrants, high confidence in medium-term industry trends investment, and stock-and-bond linkage. By laying out multiple industry trends and controlling fluctuations through internal rotation, it is believed that the current mild recovery macro environment is conducive to industrial investment. The strategy focuses on industry trends at different stages of penetration, pursuing valuation expansion, profit growth, and double-digit returns.
Outlook for the equity market in 2023: Trends in general intelligence and general overseas investments.
In 2023, the equity market is optimistic, driven by both earnings and valuation. The two major investment directions are the general trend of intelligence and going global. The general trend of intelligence focuses on AI infrastructure and application rotation, expecting good performance from industries such as electricity, overflow effects, and breakthroughs in end terminals. Going global emphasizes the transition from products to systems, focusing on the overseas expansion of foreign manufacturing, innovative drugs, and new energy vehicles. Additionally, the AI application layout of internet leaders also shows potential.
Analysis of the trend of investment in innovative drugs and military industries in the direction of outbound travel.
Discussed the changes in industry trends after the authorization of BD in the field of innovative drugs, as well as the potential of military industry going global, proposed to focus on new directions such as small nucleic acids and sales performance, while emphasizing the value reevaluation opportunity for traditional manufacturing industry leaders. Shared strategies for capturing industry opportunities in growth stock investments, as well as techniques for controlling pullbacks under the value investment philosophy.
Low-risk fixed income products investment methodology and market outlook
The investment methodology for low volatility fixed income products was shared, including asset allocation framework, equity position management, precision management, and the application of low volatility strategies, aiming to provide more cost-effective returns than traditional bank wealth management while controlling volatility and enhancing investor experience. The product design focuses on risk-adjusted returns, striving for precision management within different assets, especially in equity, by enhancing overall performance through individual stock selection and portfolio construction to attract and accommodate bank wealth management funds.
Analysis of Balanced Investment Strategy and Industry Selection in the Stock Market
Discussed the balanced investment strategy in the stock market, pointing out that this year's corporate profits have bottomed out, and the profit growth rate may exceed income, leading to a positive outlook on the equity market, but the risk of stock prices outpacing the fundamentals needs to be monitored. Emphasized that in terms of industry selection, low volatility products can provide more options, control drawdowns while pursuing high returns. For different styles of investment, positions should be adjusted based on win rate and payoff ratio to optimize portfolio volatility. In addition, fixed-income products aim for low drawdowns, providing a good investor experience, emphasizing the importance of avoiding buying at high points in a single style.
Fixed Income Plus Product Strategy: Technology Growth Investment in Industry Balance and Style Deviation
Discussed the performance of fixed income products in industry balance and market style balance slightly shifted strategy, focusing on analyzing investment opportunities in three directions: low valuation high dividend, high liquid assets, and technology growth. In the first half of the year, technology growth performed well due to industrial catalysis and calendar effects. Future investments need to focus on valuation protection and market environment changes to achieve a balance between return and risk.
Growth stock investment strategy: Evaluate industry cycles and control drawdowns.
Discussed how to evaluate the industry cycle of emerging industries and choose the right time to participate in growth stock investment in an uncertain macro environment, in order to control drawdowns and maximize returns. Emphasized the importance of business models, moats, high ROE assets, and industry trends in investment decisions.
Analysis and investment strategy in the A-share market: Focus on the equity market and improving corporate performance.
The conversation revolves around the performance of the A-share market and investment strategies, emphasizing that the impact of macroeconomic cycles on the long-term value of high-quality companies is relatively small, and pointing out that there are structural opportunities in the A-share market. Investors should actively seize the expectations of corporate profit improvement, focus on companies with both low valuation and growth potential through a balanced investment approach, and strategically allocate to technology growth, overseas targets, and domestic demand-related sectors to achieve excess returns. At the same time, during the first quarter earnings disclosure period, investors should prepare their work in advance to strive for profits from companies outperforming expectations.
Fixed income product strategies and asset allocation: balancing stable returns with risk control.
It shares the fixed income plus products through multi-asset multi-strategy management, pursuing a good risk-return ratio, emphasizing the middle and short-term high-grade credit bonds in bond management, focusing on stock allocation on growth opportunities, and using its own advantages for industry rotation and stock enhancement in convertible bond investment. There are significant differences in the positioning of different products, aiming to create a stable income experience for investors.
Analysis and Allocation Strategy of Stock and Bond Markets from a Multi-Asset Comparison Perspective
From the perspective of comparing multiple assets, the mid-term logic of the stock market's rise remains unchanged, benefiting from the economic bottom, low interest rates, and loose liquidity, as well as macro and industry policies. Pay attention to the substantial impact of PPI's rise on corporate profits and market styles, as well as opportunities in industries related to domestic demand cycles. The bond market is expected to see a slight increase in nominal growth rate, with fluctuation in the central upward trend, focusing on interest-bearing strategies and opportunities under market differentiation, using medium to high-grade medium-term credit bonds as the basic position to pursue stable returns.
Adjustment of fixed income plus product strategy and outlook on equity markets.
The conversation discussed the high valuation of convertible bonds and equity market opportunities faced by fixed income products in a low interest rate environment. Strategy adjustments include reducing exposure to convertible bonds, increasing stock allocation to pursue excess returns. The overall strategy maintains a positive secure exposure with the aim of creating good returns for investors.
Exploring the value of diversified FOF allocation in a low interest rate era: practices of multi-assets, multi-strategies, and multi-dimensions.
In a low-interest rate environment, multi-asset allocation FOF aims to reduce portfolio volatility and increase Sharpe ratio through a diversified approach of multiple assets, strategies, and dimensions. The discussion involves how to use quantitative and qualitative analysis to construct a quantitative evaluation system for active equity funds and medium to long-term pure bond funds, as well as develop alternative investment strategies for return diversification, emphasizing the importance of flexibly applying industry and style allocation models to outperform benchmarks in different market environments.
Multi-strategy asset allocation and quantitative model construction.
Introduced the multi-strategy investment approach based on a quantitative asset allocation model, including strategies such as tracking smart money, timing momentum, and replicating stock fund strategies, emphasizing the importance of low correlation between major asset classes for risk diversification. Through dynamic industry matching and analysis of historical price trends, it achieves short-term path forecasting and timing for mainstream assets such as A-shares and US stocks, ultimately covering investment portfolios of different risk levels.
Multi-asset allocation strategy: Complementarity and risk hedging of A-shares, US stocks, and gold.
Discussed the complementarity of A shares, US stocks, and gold under different market conditions, as well as how to achieve risk diversification through multi-asset allocation. Emphasized the impact of Sino-US competition and geopolitics on the market, and pointed out the importance of gold as a risk hedging tool. Proposed an asset allocation framework based on long-term strategy and short-term tactical adjustments, combining quantitative analysis and qualitative perspectives to optimize portfolios and cope with market volatility.
Construction and application of active fund selection and industry position calculation model
Introducing the preferred framework of combining quantitative and qualitative methods, the selection of equity funds and quantitative funds is discussed, especially the analysis of excess returns of equity funds, including dynamic industry allocation and stock selection strategies. The characteristics of the industry position calculation model are highlighted, that is, adjusting the industry index based on the holding characteristics of public funds and combining regular financial reports for holding calibration, achieving dynamic classification and monitoring of funds, thereby enhancing predictive effectiveness and portfolio construction efficiency.
Strategy analysis of building a quantitative factor library and selecting fund portfolios.
Discussed the construction of a comprehensive quantitative factor library for selecting base strategies, including the construction and synthesis of multidimensional factors such as performance, risk control, stock selection and trading, dynamic allocation, and research team capabilities. At the same time, shared the selection framework for active equity funds and medium- to long-term pure bond funds, emphasizing dynamic monitoring, fine-tuning industry and style deviations, and innovative methods for using ETFs to match duration timing strategies to deal with restricted purchase funds.
Multi-Strategy ETF Rotation: Tracking smart money and timing momentum in practice.
Shared an ETF rotation strategy based on the behavior of selected fund managers increasing their positions, including tracking industries where positions are added at the bottom and reduced at the top, combining market timing momentum to identify key turning points, and using an industry position calculation model to replicate overweight stock fund's innovative methods, aiming to achieve excess returns and optimize investment decisions.
Market strategy sharing based on smart capital and time momentum in the era of low interest rates
Last year from early October to the end of the year, based on the analysis of smart money trends and time momentum models, the market trend was revealed, showing the change in market behavior from high to low and then low to high, as well as early signs of spring volatility. It explored investment solutions of multi-asset, multi-strategy in a low interest rate environment, encouraging investors to keep in touch with their teams to obtain more investment strategies.
2026 Investment Advisory Asset Allocation Strategy Outlook: Determining Exploration in a Complex Environment
In early 2026, faced with the complexity of the macroeconomic environment and changes in asset correlations, investors need to seek scarce certainty. In the past year, different assets have risen simultaneously, bringing smooth returns but also increasing the difficulty of future asset allocation. In 2026, the transition of countercyclical and cross-cycle adjustment policies requires investors to adapt to new changes, focus on long-term economic stability goals, and guard against systemic risks.
Adjustment of China's economic policies and new trends in asset allocation in 2025-2026.
From 2025 to 2026, China faced external challenges such as trade wars, and adjustments in economic policies had far-reaching effects on asset allocation. The low interest rate environment entered a new stage, with prices rising reasonably and real interest rates falling, driving funds to shift towards diversified investment areas such as the stock market, leading to an increase in residents' risk preferences. Changes in the product structure of financial institutions need to pay attention to changes in asset correlations in diversified allocations, as well as the market style consistency challenges brought by quantitative strategies.
Cross-regional asset allocation challenges and herd effect prevention impact on the market.
Discussed the resonance of A-share technology stocks and US stocks, as well as the decrease in the effectiveness of cross-regional asset allocation. The expected contribution of all-weather strategies needs to be adjusted, and the super low volatility fixed income package faces challenges to principal security. Also discussed the positive impact of blocking herd behavior on the long-term healthy operation of the market in the 15th five-year plan.
Asset allocation strategy in 2026: diversified balanced allocation and refined operations.
The asset allocation strategy for 2026 was discussed, emphasizing diversified cross-market balanced allocation, focusing on the fundamentals of equity assets, having reasonable short-term volatility expectations, and using quantitative techniques to capture trading opportunities. It is recommended to participate in technology growth and value sectors appropriately, pay attention to active management opportunities in the bond market in a volatile environment, and diversify assets such as overseas equities and commodities like gold.
Asset Allocation Outlook for 2026: Multi-Dimensional Risk Management and Contrarian Investment Strategy
In 2026, asset allocation faces challenges such as the complex global macro environment, the impact of the AI industry, and domestic anti-involution policies. It is necessary to accept volatility, engage in moderate contrarian investments, focus on managing volatility in the bond and equity markets, carefully identify the differences in index funds, strengthen fixed income and multi-asset allocation techniques, pay attention to portfolio risk control, emphasize the quasi-option value of cash assets, in order to cope with changes in asset correlations, and enhance investment strategy and risk management capabilities.
要点回答
Q:What are the key points of domestic investment strategy in 2026? Any suggestions for investment directions?
A:In the domestic market, we will focus on policy orientation, focusing on advanced manufacturing, intellectual productivity, and technological innovation as the main directions for equity investment. Compared to before, policies now emphasize domestic demand more, explicitly setting a goal to increase the consumption rate of residents. Based on the tone set at the beginning of the year at the Central Economic Work Conference, the economic growth target is more realistic, and fiscal and monetary policies will maintain a certain level of intensity and seek new space, such as possible further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, while fiscal policy is expected to strengthen its determination. Firstly, we will focus on manufacturing, especially companies with supply chain advantages and technological dividends; secondly, the trend in the technology sector, especially in the AI industry, is clear and has great investment potential; thirdly, after five years of adjustment in the consumer sector, some sub-sectors showing stability in economic activity can be moderately positioned to the left. Furthermore, attention should also be paid to price elasticity opportunities brought about by supply-side clearance and the allocation value of internet platform companies listed in the Hong Kong stock market.
Q:What are the factors affecting the domestic capital market from overseas environment in 2026?
A:In terms of overseas, we expect a situation of simultaneous loose fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, with the example of the US interest rate cutting cycle opening and fiscal expansion plans in European, Japanese, and other countries. This will lead to a soft landing or even mild acceleration of the global economy, providing good support for domestic capital markets. Especially in terms of AI investments, it is a bright spot in global demand, indirectly boosting consumer demand through capital expenditure and wealth effects from stock market gains, and driving trade demand in the global technology industry chain, especially benefiting the Asian market significantly.
Q:What are the predictions for the domestic credit cycle and consumption situation in 2026?
A:It is expected that the growth rate of stock social financing in 2026 will continue to decline, and the pressure on the government to stabilize economic growth is not significant. Expectations for short-term policy stimulus should not be too high. In terms of household consumption, factors such as balance sheet repair after the epidemic, falling house prices, etc., may lead to consumption being in a low-level fluctuation. However, with the emergence of a series of catalysts and driving factors, as well as the adjustment of economic growth targets, consumption is expected to gradually rebound.
Q:How do you view the performance of the Chinese export market in 2026?
A:After several years of tariff wars, China's export environment has become more stable, with its tax advantages remaining unchanged. The proportion of exports to the United States has decreased, while the proportion of exports to countries along the Belt and Road has increased. Therefore, it is believed that China's exports will still have strong resilience in 2026.
Q:What is your view on the real estate industry and domestic demand variables?
A:After more than four years of adjustment, the real estate industry is approaching a cyclical bottom in terms of new home sales area, but price factors will take some time to digest. However, there are signs of stabilization in some local areas. In addition, with the clearance of production capacity and the decrease in capital expenditure, some sub-industries have shown a trend of price bottoming and rebounding, combined with a market environment that is bucking the trend, expectations of price increases may spread, especially as the Producer Price Index is expected to climb out of negative territory by mid-year, which will have a positive impact on the profitability of midstream companies.
Q:How to evaluate the profit growth and valuation situation of the A-share market?
A:It is expected that the earnings growth rate of listed companies in 2026 will have a certain rebound, although the extent and slope of the rebound are still unclear. At the same time, the proportion of overseas revenue is increasing, and the gross profit margin of overseas business is generally higher than that of domestic business, which helps to improve the profitability stability and growth potential of the entire listed company. In terms of valuation, although equity valuation is relatively high, there is still room for improvement in the stock-bond price ratio due to the decrease in risk-free interest rates.
Q:How is the liquidity and funding situation?
A:Liquidity remains ample, although some institutional investors have significantly increased their positions, there is still room for further increases. The peak of maturity for resident financial funds may lead to an increase in demand for yield, becoming a long-term source of incremental funds. Foreign capital is also starting to return after outflows, providing liquidity support for the equity market.
Q:What is the market style judgment in 2026?
A:It is expected that the overall market style will be dominant throughout the year, with strong performance of growth investment themes in the first quarter. Subsequently, as fundamentals improve and the anti-insular effect becomes apparent, both cyclical and consumer sectors will also have long-term allocation value. Looking at historical data, when A-share profits rebound, the correlation between the performance of the overall market and small-cap stocks is higher, and the overall market's P/E ratio is at a low level, indicating the possibility of a style shift.
Q:In terms of pullback control, how do you implement your methodology in practice?
A:We have two main methodologies on pullback control. First, we compare cost-effectiveness between industries and asset categories, rotating industries and taking profit. Secondly, we emphasize decision-making on high-probability investment opportunities and focus on process and precision management of fixed income portfolios, controlling the volatility of products through diversified investment and flexible trading.
Q:Can Yao Difan introduce your product management concept and investment strategy for 2026?
A:Okay, I am Yao Difan, the fund manager of YinHua Fund. The medium-high volatility products I manage mainly have two characteristics: one is the use of relatively active position with rights; second is the focus on high confidence medium-term industrial trends, sharing the growth dividends of the industry, and through the linkage of stocks and convertible bonds, when opportunities arise in both areas, the stock manager and convertible bond manager work together to enhance portfolio returns. In terms of preventing drawdowns and controlling fluctuations, we adopt strategies such as not concentrating on a single industrial trend, rotating within and between industrial trends.
Q:Is the current macro environment conducive to industry trend investing?
A:Currently, it is a relatively favorable macroeconomic environment for industry investment. After experiencing economic adjustments, facing moderate GDP growth rates and decreasing volatility, coupled with economic transformation, inflation is expected to bottom out, and monetary policy is favorable. Domestic and foreign experiences suggest that in similar environments, there is often a clear structural bull market. Moreover, China's 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly proposes industry investment directions such as technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, making the current macro environment very conducive to industry trend investment.
Q:How do you divide and invest in different industry penetration stages of trends?
A:We divide the new industry trends into five stages based on industry penetration rates: 0 to 1, 1 to 10, 10 to 50, 50 to 80, and over 100, each corresponding to different winning rates and odds. We mainly invest in these three stages: 10% to 100%, and earn profits through valuation expansion, profit growth, and Davis double-click from different perspectives.
Q:What is your view on this year's equity market and industry trends?
A:We are optimistic about the equity market this year, believing that it is expected to achieve profitability and valuation driven by both factors. Among them, the two key directions are general intelligence and overseas investments. In terms of general intelligence, AI applications and infrastructure are mutually supportive, especially in the stage of model performance improvement and application outbreak; in the direction of going global, the overseas expansion of the manufacturing industry will undergo a transformation, from product export to capacity, brand, and system export. Industries such as innovative drugs and new energy vehicles have the ability to go global and are worth paying special attention to.
Q:What is the investment methodology for fixed income products?
A:We have shifted from multi-asset to multi-strategy management, ranking the price-performance ratio of major asset classes provided by the asset allocation team each month, and making timely adjustments based on the equity allocation pivot. The fixed income portion is managed by fixed income plus investment managers, while the equity portion is flexibly allocated by equity fund managers based on the central framework, ensuring the optimal risk-return ratio within the entire asset allocation framework.
Q:In low-volatility products, how to choose high-volatility stocks and control the portfolio's volatility? How does the performance of the equity market affect the net asset value curve of low-volatility fixed-income products?
A:By controlling the proportion of purchases and choosing the appropriate investment stage based on the different stages of the industry cycle, we can increase the sharpness of the portfolio appropriately to balance risk. At the same time, we will reflect on and adjust our investment methodology, focusing on individual stock selection while controlling overall volatility through portfolio construction. The performance of the equity market is crucial, as the competitiveness of fixed-income products largely depends on the performance of the equity portion. In low-volatility fixed-income products, we will finely manage the risks within different asset portfolios and strive to improve the risk-adjusted return on individual stock selection to attract investors and achieve competitiveness with bank wealth management products.
Q:What are the advantages of fixed income products compared to equity funds?
A:The main advantage of fixed income products is that they can help investors avoid being overly frightened by market sentiment fluctuations, especially when there are frequent style changes, they can provide a better investment experience. We strive to achieve stable returns and lower drawdowns through industry diversification, moderate style deviations, and a combination of undervalued high dividend, high growth, and technology growth assets.
Q:In terms of stock investment, how to allocate based on market style and industry selection?
A:We divide the market into multiple sectors such as value, cycle, growth, and consumption, and maintain a balanced market style. This year, corporate profits have bottomed out and rebounded, and supply and demand relations have improved, providing us with more opportunities to choose industries. We can control the drawdown while pursuing higher returns without sacrificing yield.
Q:In the practice of low-beta fixed income addition, how to select stocks based on industry characteristics and asset attributes?
A:In our industry, we achieve moderate diversification and relatively balanced styles. We use different stock selection methodologies for different types of stocks, such as stable, asset quality, and growth. For companies with stable main businesses and high dividend rates, as well as emerging industries benefiting from industry structure optimization and technological progress, we actively seek investment opportunities and seek balance between different styles in order to achieve stable returns.
Q:What are the characteristics and investment strategies for the third type of assets, namely investments in industry trends and economic conditions?
A:The third type of assets mainly target stocks that are greatly influenced by industry trends and economic conditions. These assets tend to have high volatility because as new incremental information emerges in the industry, expectations regarding industry ceilings, penetration rate improvements, and other factors continue to change. Growth stock funds can withstand this volatility, focusing on capturing directions amid uncertainty. However, for low-volatility products, it is necessary to assess the stage of the industry cycle and choose the right time to participate in order to control drawdowns and maximize returns.
Q:How has the performance of A-shares been in the past few years? What is your view on the equity market?
A:The performance of the A-share market over the past year has been relatively good, after experiencing a prolonged bear market. Although the Shanghai Composite Index is still some distance from its peak, many individual stocks have reached historic highs, thanks to the ability of numerous high-quality companies to weather the cycle. In the absence of systemic downside risks in the macro economy, we maintain a positive attitude towards the equity market, especially as bond contributions are relatively low in fixed-income products and the equity portion needs to make a greater contribution. The bottoming out and recovery of the Chinese economy, as well as expectations of corporate profit improvement, provide structural opportunities for the market. In terms of investment strategy, it is important to maintain balance and weigh the quality of undervalued companies against their future growth prospects.
Q:What are the investment directions and key areas of focus?
A:Focus on the improvement cycle of corporate performance and the overseas direction of technological growth, while also paying attention to undervalued stocks related to domestic demand. They are sensitive to policy stimulus or improvements in company fundamentals, with significant room for valuation repair. In addition, during the first quarter, the disclosure of annual reports and quarterly reports has a significant impact on corporate performance. It is important to focus on relevant work and strive to earn money by exceeding the company's expectations.
Q:What are the characteristics of the strategy and asset allocation of fixed income plus management products?
A:Fixed income products with a multi-asset, multi-strategy engineered management system aim to achieve higher returns under certain risk assumptions and provide better risk-return experiences for different products. For example, YinHua YuanJing focuses on broad growth opportunities and convertible bond rotation, while KeReiLai Fund primarily uses convertible bonds as a main tool, requiring strong flexibility and focusing on allocating to prosperous growth sectors. ShuangLi products combine technology growth allocation and convertible bond volatility management, seeking relatively high flexibility in position allocation.
Q:What is your opinion on comparing multiple assets this year?
A:From the perspective of win rate and odds, different assets have different cost-effectiveness. In the stock market, despite the current economy being at a low point, with low interest rates and loose liquidity, structural opportunities are still active with macro and industry policy support. Pay attention to whether PPI can substantially rebound to judge the direction of corporate profit improvement. In the bond market, nominal growth is expected to slightly rebound, but internal demand constraints the extent to which interest rates rise, overall positive for both the bond market and A shares. Fixed-income products focus on interest rate strategies, with significant market differentiation currently, seeking opportunities for oscillating growth after interest rates rise. Convertible bond market valuations are at historically high levels, and may face adjustments in the future, but with expectations of a good equity market, the high pricing level of convertible bonds may not be fully released in the short term, increasing the difficulty of selecting securities.
Q:How do you adjust your asset allocation according to the current market situation?
A:We will make adjustments to the configuration at the portfolio level, with the overall direction being to remain bullish on equity markets while maintaining a certain level of safety margin, reducing the proportion of convertible bonds and increasing exposure to stocks. Taking into consideration both win rate and odds, we believe there are good opportunities in the equity market this year. Therefore, we will maintain a relatively positive safety exposure in various fixed income products and utilize our strengths to achieve excess returns on assets.
Q:How is the product lineup of the E Fund Fixed Income Plus Team? How should investors choose the product that suits them in the future?
A:Yinhua Fixed Income Plus team has a rich range of multi-asset products. We recommend investors to choose the right products based on their different risk and return preferences. We will continue to strive to create good investment returns for investors.
Q:Can you please provide a detailed explanation of the value of diversified allocation FOF funds in the era of low interest rates?
A:In the era of low interest rates, FOF funds achieve value through multi-asset, multi-strategy, and multi-dimensional allocation characteristics. Among them, multi-asset allocation can use low correlation to reduce portfolio volatility and drawdown; from a multi-strategy perspective, we will dig deep into alternative investment strategies to obtain stable sources of income; from a multi-dimensional perspective, we will conduct in-depth research on underlying assets, construct distinctive quantitative asset allocation models to capture investment opportunities in different market environments.
Q:How does FOF funds conduct quantitative evaluation of active equity funds and medium to long-term pure bond funds?
A:For actively managed equity funds, we have established a complete quantitative evaluation system that includes dynamic classification, building a unique factor library, as well as portfolio management and monitoring. The goal is to outperform various benchmarks such as dividend indexes and equity fund indexes. Similarly, for medium to long-term pure bond funds, we have also developed a similar position calculation model and complete framework with the aim of outperforming the corresponding bond fund indexes.
Q:What strategies and asset allocation methods does the FOF fund adopt for multi-strategy rotation?
A:We use three sub-strategies such as tracking smart money weights, replicating biased stock funds, etc. for multi-strategy rotation; at the same time, identify market conditions and predict short-term excess returns through time momentum strategy. In terms of asset allocation, we adopt a quantitative and qualitative combined approach to construct a quantitative asset allocation model, combining historical price trends with current valuations and macro indicators for short-term path forecasting, achieving market timing.
Q:How do FOF funds utilize multi-asset diversification to manage risks and make tactical adjustments?
A:We first establish the central axis of the long-term strategic allocation, and optimize the annualized returns, volatility, and drawdown targets based on product positioning. At the level of short-term tactical adjustments, we start from both quantitative and qualitative aspects, using various asset net income data for quantitative fitting, and combining fundamental factors, macro data, and information on crowd sentiment for distribution fine-tuning. We also incorporate the views of multiple asset allocation experts within the team to construct real-time TA adjustment plans.
Q:In investment strategy, how do you combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to construct and optimize a fund portfolio?
A:We adopt a framework for position calibration based on financial reports, and adjust our investment strategy according to the color model of industry weightings and style weightings. Firstly, we classify funds into balanced funds and industry thematic funds dynamically, keeping the overall position of balanced funds stable to avoid excessive concentration in a specific sector or industry. Secondly, we build a factor library which not only depends on net asset value and holding data, but also includes some qualitative estimation data, to construct a comprehensive selection system from multiple dimensions. For example, we analyze the heavy holdings of public funds, calculate factors such as stock selection and trading ability, and evaluate the fund manager's dynamic allocation ability and level of excess alpha acquisition by combining industry estimation data. In addition, we also consider the stability and consistency of the research team, and cross-validate in four major dimensions to build, screen, and synthesize factors, ultimately used for portfolio construction.
Q:How do you select the framework for medium to long-term pure bond funds?
A:The selection framework for medium to long-term pure bond funds is similar to that of actively managed equity funds, but with the addition of a data cleaning process because bond fund returns can be affected by daily subscription and redemption activities, leading to anomalies. We pay particular attention to momentum effects in the bond market and are aware that looking only at performance factors may not always be effective, as bond funds with excellent past performance may experience significant drawdowns in certain years. Therefore, we will consider duration timing and rotation strategies in order to identify fund managers who truly possess long-term duration control capabilities.
Q:When you are unable to directly invest in certain excellent funds, how do you carry out alternative operations?
A:When excellent funds cannot be directly invested in due to restrictions, we calculate the duration of outstanding funds in the entire market and use ETFs to match their timing operations in duration, thereby simulating similar performance returns.
Q:What specific implementation cases are there in your multi-strategy?
A:We have implemented a rotation strategy based on three major categories of ETFs, including tracking smart money, identifying momentum timing, and replicating sector funds. For example, in March 2022, we observed excellent fund managers starting to increase their positions in the pharmaceutical sector, combining this analysis with our research team's insights to predict that innovative drugs may become the main theme of the year, and adjusting our investment portfolio accordingly. Similarly, in Q4 2022, we noticed fund managers reducing their positions in industries that had seen significant gains, indicating a possible market correction, and promptly implementing corresponding profit-taking strategies. Additionally, we use a momentum timing model to capture key market points, such as trend reversals and breakouts, and make investment decisions based on the concentration of positions in the public fund industry.
Q:In the context of the deepening of asset allocation concepts, how to translate professional strategies into actual returns for investors? What will Mr. Yang Yu, the Director of the Office of the Asset Allocation and Investment Advisory Committee of YinHua Fund, share in his presentation?
A:Investment advisory services are an important bridge connecting professional investment with individualized needs, by providing professional investment advisory allocation strategies to help investors diversify risks among different assets and achieve long-term wealth goals. Mr. Yang will share his outlook on investment advisory allocation strategies for 2026, exploring new challenges and opportunities in asset correlation, portfolio diversification, and asset allocation construction in the new macroeconomic environment based on the new changes and complexities in the asset allocation environment over the past year.
Q:What are the new changes in the asset allocation environment in the past year?
A:Over the past year, different types of assets have performed relatively consistently, with the low correlation between assets weakening, resulting in better-than-expected asset allocation effects. However, this has also brought new complexities, requiring adaptation to changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as the increased timeliness of bond assets in 2025 and the phenomenon of multiple asset classes rising and falling together.
Q:What impact does the change in the top-level design of macroeconomic policies have on asset allocation?
A:The shift from countercyclical regulation to cross-cyclical regulation discussion indicates that while focusing on short-term economic regulation, it is also necessary to guard against long-term systemic risks. This increases the complexity of policy expectations judgment and also requires structural adjustments to asset allocation strategies.
Q:How do changes in anti-structural policies and future economic growth targets affect asset allocation?
A:Anti-structural policies will change the supply and demand relationship, improve the performance of certain industries, and encourage industries to raise the threshold and eliminate disorderly competition. In addition, the objective of total economic growth and the increasing importance of technology will become the main focus in the future. These factors will affect asset allocation, especially the development expectations for industries such as technology and real estate.
Q:What impact does the rise in prices have on wealth management and asset allocation?
A:The rational rise in prices is beneficial for breaking the conservative investment status of investors with extremely low risk preference, prompting more aggressive wealth management behavior. As the CPI rises and real interest rates fall, the enthusiasm for risk asset allocation will increase, and the risk preference of funds in the whole society may also marginally shift.
Q:What stage is the current low interest rate environment in? What impact will it have on the future?
A:The current low interest rate environment may enter the third stage, with nominal or market interest rates remaining low and fluctuations more controllable. With the recovery of inflation and the accelerated decline of real interest rates, it is beneficial for the distribution of risk assets. It may also encourage further migration of household wealth to the capital market, and the trend of the entire society seeking returns through diversified investments is becoming more prominent.
Q:In the current A-share market, how does the resonance between the returns generated by technology stocks and American technology stocks affect asset allocation? For investors with a preference for low risk, how should they adjust their investment portfolios after increasing their marginal risk appetite?
A:Some important income contributions in the A-share market come from technology stocks, and the resonance with US technology stocks is constantly strengthening. This means that the asset diversification effect achieved through cross-regional asset allocation is decreasing. For example, in the past, bonds and gold made prominent contributions in all-weather strategies, but in 2026, the expected contributions of these single assets may need to be appropriately adjusted. When investors moderately increase risk preferences from extremely low levels, they may consider solutions such as ultra-low volatility fixed income. However, in the case of limited bond asset returns, investment solutions relying solely on stock-bond combinations or primarily on bonds with a small amount of diversified assets have investment difficulties, as the space for diversified allocation or equity investments is limited.
Q:What is the impact of herd behavior on the equity and bond markets, and what measures has the government taken in response to this?
A:In the top-level design of the country, the government clearly stated its intention to prevent herd behavior in the financial markets, including the stock market and bond market. In the 2024 stampede event in the equity market, the government successfully prevented herd behavior, and in early 2025, effective measures were also taken to control herd behavior in the bond market. These measures help to avoid excessive concentration of short-term funds leading to significant fluctuations in asset prices and lay the foundation for the long-term healthy development of the market.
Q:What is the positioning of equity assets in asset allocation and how should it be adjusted in the future?
A:With the continuous use of tools and mechanisms to block herd behavior, the risk-return ratio of equity assets (such as A-shares) is expected to improve in the medium and long term, but expectations for excessive profit-taking effects should be reduced in the short term. Investors should pay attention to changes in policy, fund flows, and fundamentals in asset allocation, and use quantitative tools to capture short-term opportunities, achieve diversified and diversified investments.
Q:How should we respond to possible market volatility in the bond market in the future?
A:It is expected that the bond market will have relatively small fluctuations in the future, and actively-managed bond funds with trading capabilities are worth paying attention to. Although factors such as supply and demand dynamics and macro narratives may exert pressure on the bond market, the generally weak fundamentals and overall interest rate environment make it less likely for bond interest rates to increase significantly. It is anticipated that the market will operate in a slightly less volatile environment than in 2025.
Q:For Yinhe Fund, what are the key points to pay attention to in asset allocation practice in 2026?
A:It is important to note that the global macro environment is becoming more complex, and asset reactions to negative news may be more sensitive than to positive news; AI as an important variable in global narratives will have complex effects on asset prices, capital demand, and global employment; domestic anti-"involution" policies are of significant importance for expectations of price recovery, actual interest rate declines, and improvements in the competitive environment of certain industries; the phenomenon of weakening financial market trends and increased volatility suggests that investors need to engage in contrarian investing; the long-term trend of residents' funds entering the market depends on holding experience, and it is necessary to have reasonable expectations for the impact of this process; index funds are entering a stage of high-quality development, and investors need to pay close attention to the differences in index compilation rules; there is a surge in demand for a combination of fixed income and diversified asset allocation, but it also faces challenges from insufficient bond yields, requiring the enhancement of technology and iterative strategies to meet customer needs.
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