A：In 2023, it was a milestone year for the public fund industry in China. With the implementation of a series of heavyweight policies under the action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds in the first half of the year, the industry has shifted from a phase of high-speed growth to an ecosystem of high-quality development. This requires us to evolve from managing scale to managing trust comprehensively, with professional capabilities as the foundation, strengthening the construction of investment research capabilities in all dimensions, playing the role of ballast in the capital market, and acting as a pricing anchor in market fluctuations, safeguarding the stable and healthy development of the capital market. The key to passing this exam lies in feedback from customers and serving the overall situation. On the one hand, we need to enrich and upgrade the product system, build a multi-level product matrix, and ensure that residents' wealth with different risk preferences and life cycles find precise correspondence. On the other hand, we need to actively extend investment research capabilities to the field of wealth management, cooperate deeply with ecosystem partners, and translate research results into actual returns in investors' accounts. At the same time, the public fund industry needs to deeply integrate into the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, guide financial resources towards key areas of modern industrial systems such as technological innovation and green low-carbon through product innovation, value discovery, and long-term pricing, and realize the transformation of residents' wealth into long-term funds that support high-quality development.

A：Tianhong Fund believes that under the current trend of the era, equity investment in 2026 will usher in opportunities brought by global reindustrialization. This will be driven by three main factors: restructuring of the global industrial chain triggered by geopolitical factors, new infrastructure investment spurred by technological changes, and the global green transformation driven by environmental sustainability demands. These factors will push the world into a reindustrialization process, bringing investment opportunities in various sectors such as new energy, power equipment, high-end manufacturing, and restructuring of resource-rich industrial chains. China is actively participating in global reindustrialization process through resource intervention, capacity output, and support investment.

A：Currently, the proportion of overseas income of Chinese A-share listed companies has reached 15%, which is equivalent to Japan's level in 1988. During that period, Japan's overseas income accounted for 50%, and now this ratio is close to half of their income coming from overseas. This means that from the perspective of Japan's development stage, there is still a large room for increase in the proportion of China's current overseas income.

A：The automobile industry is a rapidly growing export industry in China in recent years. Its exports have increased from several hundred thousand vehicles to six or seven million vehicles, and may reach a ceiling of 20 to 20 million vehicles. In addition, industries such as electric power equipment, new energy, chemicals, and basic chemicals are also experiencing or are about to enter an accelerated phase of going global, similar to Japan's expansion process in the late 1980s to the 1990s.

A：Japan first conquered the European and American markets before gradually turning towards developing countries, while China initially focuses on regions such as ASEAN, Latin America, and the Middle East as export destinations. In addition, in the process of globalization, China's overseas investment in manufacturing industry will gradually increase, but the path to going global may differ.

A：Yes, for a manufacturing country, globally diversified enterprises are always one of the most important investment opportunities in terms of equity assets. Taking Japan as an example, data shows that industries with high proportions of overseas business income outperform industries that rely on domestic demand. The Outbound Index has achieved an annualized return of over 15% in the past 15 years. The current judgment is a more modest recovery. Compared to the previous two recessions driven by external demand, this recovery is more gradual due to the combined effects of global industrialization and domestic demand support policies, gradually emerging from a deflationary state. It is expected that the process will be slower and the slope flatter.

A：It is expected that the US dollar index will moderately weaken, the Renminbi is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, which is advantageous for companies going overseas. At the same time, M1 data reflects a moderate level of fund activation, but it is expected to increase later in the year. In terms of the A-share market, in a low interest rate environment, investors' willingness to enter the market is increasing and risk appetite is rising.

A：The enterprise ROE has started to stabilize, and manufacturing industry revenue has exceeded fixed asset investment completion on a year-on-year basis, indicating an increase in turnover rate and entering a good period for manufacturing industry investment.

A：Currently, both the copper-to-oil ratio and the copper-to-gold ratio are at historic lows. Coupled with the recent market conditions, it is recommended to pay more attention to investment opportunities in copper, industrial metals, and crude oil, as they may significantly outperform gold in the next three years.

A：From a fundamental perspective, growth stocks in the big market have a better cost-performance ratio, because their performance is clearly on an upward swing and their valuation has not significantly increased, while small cap stocks, while their profits have not kept pace, their valuation has reached the peak. For large-cap value stocks, once they are decoupled from the real estate chain, they have greater elasticity, so there is a preference for investing in large-cap growth stocks.

A：Currently, in the holdings of public funds, the proportion of stocks with private equity holdings exceeding 50% or experiencing losses has reached 50%. Similar situations have occurred four times in the past 20 years. Although this does not necessarily mean that the market will continue to rise, there have been two instances where it led to a "bull" market, fueled by liquidity injections that created bubbles. Furthermore, after a few other occurrences, the market also saw industry diversification or style changes.

A：Currently, the overall valuation differentiation of the first-tier industries is significant, with industries represented by electronics, communications, and computers having a PE ratio that is already more than two or even three times the standard deviation. This means that there is a 95% or close to 100% risk in the valuation of these industries. Therefore, for investment, it is more inclined to choose sectors with relatively reasonable and undervalued valuations. Specific opportunities include reasonably valued residual assets, especially advantageous manufacturing varieties for going global, such as machinery and equipment, basic chemicals, building materials, new energy, bulk commodities trade, and going global industries in consumer goods and insurance.

A：The chemical industry is worth paying attention to because more and more high-quality chemical production capacity is gravitating towards China globally, causing many international renowned chemical companies to incur losses due to competition with advanced production capacity in China. We tend to focus on this direction as the main investment direction for this year, and pay attention to cyclic and consumer products with potential for high elasticity and high odds, especially varieties that are actively or passively cleared out and have low short-term demand correlation with production volume.

A：The long-term returns of consumer stocks ultimately depend on the repair of household balance sheets and the recovery of household financial assets. In the past, Japan has experienced a phenomenon where consumer PPI leads CPI, but this did not lead to sustained consumer stock returns until after 2012, when consumer stocks saw structural improvements and sustained relative returns with the repair of balance sheets.

A：Next year, equity investments will mainly focus on two red directions: First, in the AI field, with particular attention to computing power chips and infrastructure; second, the future AI investment logic will extend to both ends, including software and end-side applications, as well as underlying green energy and power equipment. In addition, we are optimistic about precious metals, copper and other raw materials, as well as Chinese advantageous companies benefiting from the industrialization process, such as power equipment, power grid equipment, chemicals, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery energy storage equipment.

A：Currently, artificial intelligence has become the focus of attention in the global capital market, with rapid growth that surpasses any previous technology product. The rapid growth of computing power enables AI models to work independently in a short period of time. It is expected that by around 2028, AI will surpass human cognitive abilities and continue to grow rapidly in the future. At the same time, the production of "tokens" generated by AI is growing at a rate of about 5 times per year, and is expected to exceed the amount of thought produced by all human brains globally by 2029. As AI technology continues to progress, existing testing methods may not accurately measure its level of intelligence, and new testing methods will be needed in the future. Additionally, the dependence of AI learning on data is increasing, and the concept of a data wall is gradually fading as AI itself generates more of the data used in training.

A：China and Europe are leading in AI research and development, with a significant presence also in the United States.

A：'Mini brains' refer to AI components or agents that are analogous to mini brains, and they are part of a larger ecosystem where many of these mini brains or 'agents' interact and communicate to perform complex functions, similar to the mechanics of an old-fashioned watch.

A：Reasoners in AI are more analytical compared to the intuitive capabilities of language models. They are capable of checking numerous websites, trying different approaches, and generating reports rapidly, performing tasks that would take humans significantly longer.

A：Embodied AI refers to AI that has a physical appearance or form. The first practical application of embodied AI has been in self-driven cars that operate on streets around the world.

A：The prediction is that around 99.9% of all white-collar work by 2050 will be performed by AI, though there will still be jobs for humans who will produce a lot more intellectual work.

A：The speaker believes that AI will have a massive economic impact, with the US. economy already beginning to feel its effects. The generative AI may have a bigger impact, with a potential lag of about 5 to 10 years before significant economic data reflects this impact.

A：Investment trends in AI show that the US. is the country investing the most in AI relative to GDP, with companies like Big Tech allocating a significant portion of their budgets towards AI. Despite high investments, AI is not leading to expensive stock valuations, suggesting that the economic viability of AI is solid. Low interest rates and falling inflation also create a positive scenario for continued growth and investment in AI.

A：In 2025, against the backdrop of continued expansion in size, China's bond market is presenting three core features: intensified volatility, innovation and openness, and deepening service of national strategies. Mr. Malone will return to the old norm in his keynote speech, discussing the outlook of the bond market in 2026, focusing mainly on the possible existing situations in the market and some basic market conditions for the next year.

A：Next year, banks may slow down the expansion of their balance sheets, leading to a decrease in the true asset shortage. In certain areas, there may be a situation of oversupply, especially in long-term interest rate bonds. The importance of supply analysis is particularly critical because the market is accustomed to believing that demand is infinite and overlooks the importance of supply analysis.

A：Pricing power will transfer from non-bank institutions to banks, which means that the bank-dominated market will pay more attention to costs, not lower than cost debt financing, and need to consider location pricing. This shift is to some extent a return to the old normal. Market segmentation is manifested in different supply and demand logics and participants in the long and short end markets. It is expected that after the central bank's fading of total financing volume in the second quarter, the overall financing growth rate may slow down, which could lead to banks shrinking interbank liabilities and forming a differentiation between short-term and long-term funds.

A：The central bank's wording has changed from "promoting the decrease of social financing costs" to "running at a low level", implying that deposit rates may bottom out in the medium term in the future. This will change the reference system of the bond market, returning to the original investment logic of seeking capital gains after first ensuring interest payments.

A：The supply and demand changes in the interest rate bond market this year compared to last year have been enormous, especially on the demand side. As of the third quarter of this year, although the net supply remains stable, there has been a shift in the purchasing entities. Funds and insurance companies were the main sources of demand growth in 2024, but in the first three quarters of 2025, their demand significantly decreased, forcing banks to take on more shares.

A：Banks play different roles in the bond market. Asset allocation-focused large banks are facing the mismatch between deposit pressure and asset growth rate, while trading-oriented rural commercial banks are experiencing a mismatch between rising debt costs and bond investment returns. There is a conflict between balance sheet expansion and profits, and their potential instability may affect market stability. Next year, as the growth rate of bank assets slows down, the pace of loan issuance may lean towards the first quarter, leading to a phenomenon of balance sheet contraction starting from the second quarter. Interbank liabilities decrease, funding rates rise, the yield curve changes from flat to steep, market segmentation continues, and there will be further pressure on long-term interest rates to rise.

A：The phenomenon of deposit running quickly is usually related to extremely low interest rates overseas. When the deposit interest rate is significantly lower than that of long-term fixed deposits, people tend to prefer holding current deposits. This trend poses a challenge to banks, as the duration of bank liabilities may continuously shorten as a result. In addition to deposit running quickly domestically, there is also a problem of deposit disintermediation, which means that due to institutions such as bank wealth management offering higher returns and more diverse investment choices, a large amount of deposit funds are attracted, leading to a decrease in the stability of bank deposits, a shortening of the duration of liabilities, and subsequently affecting the bank's debt repayment ability and liquidity management.

A：After 2022, insurance companies gradually increased the proportion of bond investments, but in the third quarter of this year, this proportion decreased for the first time. Insurance companies are currently mainly investing in ultra-long-term local government bonds, and their allocation rhythm is closely related to market supply and demand and interest rate levels, rather than unrestrained strong allocation. This means that insurance companies may be redirecting more new funds to the equity market.

A：In the past few years, the issuance period of local government bonds has been continuously extended, especially in the area of ultra-long local government bonds. It is expected that by 2027, with the non-renewal of replacement local government bonds after they mature in 2026, the structure of local government bond issuance may undergo adjustment, thus affecting the supply-demand relationship. The supply-demand issue of ultra-long local government bonds may become more prominent next year, and the yield curve structure may further widen, bringing significant differences and opportunities for related assets.

A：When analyzing the ultra-long local government bond market, it is crucial to analyze supply information. For example, the relationship between the 30-year minus 10-year government bond yield spread and the issuance volume of ultra-long local government bonds is highly correlated, which can be used as an effective indicator to judge the trend of yield spread. Next year, it is necessary to closely monitor the annual supply-demand balance sheet as well as the supply rhythm, maturity, and variety details of each month or even each week.

A：In the central economic work conference and the People's Bank of China's press release this year, a significant shift towards promoting the low operation of social financing costs was proposed, indicating that loan interest rates have bottomed out. At the same time, deposit interest rates may also face downward pressure, especially in the first half of the year. This will help improve the liability cost structure of banks and may lead to a new balance point in the deposit and loan interest rate system.

A：It is expected that deposit rates will be close to the bottom in the first half of next year, and may remain relatively stable in the second half due to the increasing proportion of interbank liabilities in the liabilities structure of large banks. At the same time, in order to further reduce loan rates, deposit rates need to decrease first. The central bank needs to implement a policy of both quantity and price easing, including measures such as injecting a large amount of funds to meet demand, and increasing the purchase of government bonds, in order to effectively reduce the cost of liabilities and push overall interest rates down.

A：Next year, the PPI has a stable foundation. Considering the stable production in the third quarter and strong external demand but relatively weak domestic demand, if demand does not significantly decrease, prices are expected to remain stable. In the long term, there is a possibility for the PPI to return to zero, which will help break the long-term deflation trend.

A：At the micro level, the main focus is on observing the income and profitability of the government, enterprises, and residents, such as taxes, industrial enterprise profits, and deposit and savings preferences. This year, there has been a significant improvement at the micro level, with actual income and earnings conditions better than what is reflected in macro data.

A：Next year, the market situation will improve somewhat, mainly due to the fact that the central bank did not purchase a large amount of government bonds, leading to an increase in short-term interest rates compared to last year. In addition, banks are becoming more cautious in their behavior and there has not been a large-scale process of debt repayment. Furthermore, if the central bank purchases a large amount of government bonds and uses tools such as spicy powder and buyback instruments to inject liquidity, it will help reduce debt costs, push bond interest rates further down, and create a new market cycle.

A：According to the spirit of this year's Central Economic Conference, the possibility of the central bank purchasing a large amount of government bonds is not high. Fiscal monetization is an unconventional policy, and this year's policy tends to exit unconventional policies and consider cross-cycle countercyclical regulation, so there is no basis for this policy to be significantly expanded.

A：It may be difficult to adjust the maturity structure of local government bonds in the first and second quarters, but if the local government bond curve becomes steeper or the yield spread significantly widens later on, there is a certain probability that adjustments will be made. For insurance clients, it is important to pay attention to the changes in the issuance structure of ultra-long local government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year and their impact on the future market.

A：I believe that the possibility of the stock market weakening and leading to a repricing of non-bank assets is not high. The consensus probability of the stock market deteriorating next year and becoming a bond asset is low. In the current environment of extremely low interest rates, it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain sustainable excess returns. Low interest rates will prompt more market participants to use leverage, reducing the opportunity to obtain non-market related returns between trading partners. In the long run, successful bets on styles or industries do not guarantee stable returns, but rather require a reduced long-term reliance on these factors.

A：Currently, small-cap stocks account for a large weight in the A-share market, leading to a dumbbell-shaped structure in portfolio management, with a significant exposure to small-cap stocks and minimal exposure to large-cap stocks. This can result in a portfolio that appears to be market value-neutral and risk-neutral but actually has volatility contributions that are not neutral, especially when micro-cap stocks experience large fluctuations, the portfolio may face the risk of a one-time drawdown.

A：There are some misconceptions in the current alpha investment, such as incorrectly treating beta attributes as alpha, and traditional industry allocation and style control frameworks are difficult to cope with the frequent appearance of thematic market trends. In addition, in the big data and AI environment, the past advantage of financial analysis may not be sustainable, so it is necessary to re-examine and adjust the logic of obtaining alpha, to reduce the correlation with the macro market environment as much as possible, and to seek excess returns through risk disintegration and non-systematic pricing.

A：Narrowly defined alpha investing primarily focuses on distinguishing which asset prices are determined by systematic risks at any given point in time, and then attempting to strip away this portion of influence. We pay attention to how assets react to positive and negative deviations, and aim to achieve alpha returns by finely tuning the portfolio to underweight in positive deviations and overweight in negative deviations.

A：The penetration speed of AI technology in the investment industry is very fast, especially in the financial industry, because it has the most standardized data. AI technology can transform some discrete variables of listed companies into continuous variables, enabling more scientific and objective interaction between different research methods, forming a combination of quantitative and fundamental investment portfolio.

A：Public AI quantification investment has gone through two stages: the first stage is breaking away from linear architecture and entering the investment paradigm of deep learning and reinforcement learning; the second stage is to discover the need to search for more high-quality data, and the quality and uniqueness of data from different sources will become future competitive barriers.

A：Improving the cost-effectiveness of both data and models is equally important. In terms of data, high-quality and abundant data sources will help improve asset pricing capabilities and create pricing advantages. As for models, improving cost-effectiveness means optimizing network architecture design and enhancing the model's ability to handle signal-to-noise ratio. At the current stage, human experience and market understanding can still be superior to models to some extent, designing network architectures with higher cost-effectiveness.

A：We adhere to a long-term perspective, pursue a high information ratio and stable excess returns, sacrificing short-term performance flexibility. Our products have lower correlations (compared to market averages), and diversified sources of alpha allow us to maintain lower drawdowns in the face of systematic market shocks. Our three product lines correspond to broad-based index enhancement, robust alpha, and industry index enhancement, each with unique features and all dedicated to obtaining pure alpha returns.

A：The "Fifteen-Five" plan, as an important clue for industry allocation this year, is often in line with the main line of the real economy and national development strategy. Looking back on past plans and market performance, it can be seen that the main line of the market in each five-year cycle is developed based on resolving issues from the previous cycle. Therefore, to find the investment main line for 2026, it is necessary to analyze the new development goals and policy orientations proposed in the "Fifteen-Five" plan, use this as a basis to understand the trends in the real economy and industrial development, and combine the experiences and progress accumulated in the past five years to judge the future main industry.

A：I think the key points are: first, our investment in electricity has been in place, although the capacity is still not enough, it has indeed solved the problem of insufficient electricity supply. Second, the country's overseas dependence on energy is decreasing, which lays a good foundation for overall supply-side reform. Third, the manufacturing industry used to face significant fluctuation pressure in variable costs, but with the reduction of overseas energy dependence, this pressure is also decreasing. The "bottleneck" problem in the upstream supply chain and the volatility in the technology field are both easing.

A：We should think about which industries are reducing variable cost pressures and solving upstream supply chain issues. The valuation of the middle and downstream industries in these sectors may have the opportunity to be reassessed. Next, I will share three areas of interest in the AI industry chain: domestic computing power direction, especially with the improvement of advanced process capability and capacity, domestic computing power chips are expected to catch up; semiconductor independent controllable direction, the improvement of advanced process capability will drive the improvement of the fundamentals of related equipment manufacturers; storage direction, due to the introduction of new AI technologies leading to storage demand growth exceeding expectations, especially in applications such as KV cache, storage is entering a new cycle of prosperity, currently supply and demand are imbalanced, in short supply and facing price increases.

A：Vietnam's economic development plan for the next five years is to achieve annual GDP growth of at least 10%. If this target is met, it will drive the growth of listed companies' profits. The investment strategy will continue to focus on the private sector, especially in the real estate sector, as the trend of increasing urbanization in Vietnam is expected to continue. Despite high property prices, the large young population and strong economic growth potential can tolerate the pressure of high property prices for a certain period of time. However, if credit growth significantly slows down, asset quality issues may be exposed, which is a major risk point for the future Vietnamese market.

A：We tend to believe that the overall volatility of the stock market will continue to be lower than historical levels. The consistency between market prices and changes in underlying assets makes the current market changes sustainable. Three perspectives that may lead to larger fluctuations in the 26 years are: changes in the logic of strong industry trends (such as the AI industry), fluctuations caused by the market shifting from liquidity-driven to profit-driven processes, and external variables such as the impact of the US dollar index. For investors, they can respond to potential market fluctuations by switching investment types.

A：Users have maintained a month-on-month growth rate of 10 to 20 in token consumption over the past few months, showing a relatively fast overall growth.

A：Another focus of the demand side is the implementation status of AI applications, especially this year, attention will be paid to whether there are AI blockbuster applications and their implementation effects.

A：Supply-side mainly focuses on two aspects: firstly, the technology iteration and updates of overseas big factories; secondly, the orders and technology iteration of companies providing industrial chain supporting links for big factories at home and abroad.

A：Currently, overseas giants like NVIDIA and Google are speeding up their technology iteration. Whether it is GPU or ASIC solutions, the direction of their technology iteration is still ongoing, and there is no sign of slowing down.

A：From the supply and demand sides, the overseas computing power market is currently in a prosperous trend.

A：I am relatively optimistic about the prospects of overseas computing power and the entire AI industry, and believe that the importance of the demand side has increased.

A：There is a larger space for overseas asset allocation, and it is recommended that investors allocate assets such as US stocks and Hong Kong stocks according to their risk preferences. There are investment opportunities in areas such as AI computing power, chips, semiconductors, or internet platforms.

A：Index investing is evolving from a tool to a strategy. Tianhong has made significant progress in expanding its index product categories and enriching its product offerings, helping investors' funds to resonate and support a wider range of investment strategies.

A：This platform is based on customer demand, providing distinctive strategic services, utilizing distinctive factors, AI tools, and deep data. It focuses on distinctive strategies, Internet genes, and distinctive data as core advantages, serving B-side and retail investors.

A：With the increase in the number of categories of ETFs and the improvement in investor awareness, ETFs are gradually becoming the core pivot in investment planning and portfolio allocation, shifting from product attributes to a strategic role in wealth management transformation.

A：Investors' acceptance of ETFs is increasing, shifting from focusing on risk diversification to actively caring about ETF strategies and portfolio allocations. From a professional perspective, investors are starting to delve into the selection logic and details of different ETFs. Tianhong's product layout is divided into broad-based, sector themes, and strategy directions, dedicated to deeply cultivating broad-based products, enhancing index products with small market capitalization, refining sector themes, optimizing and comprehensive strategy products, and innovating in index compilation such as low volatility dividends.

A：Yes, after the implementation of the new benchmark regulations, it becomes more apparent whether actively managed funds can generate alpha. Many actively managed funds that are unable to generate excess returns, do not respect or cannot target the selected benchmark will face fee pressure and may be forced to make way for index-type products. With the growth of index funds, their allocation status has significantly increased, making them an important component for large market investors. In the future, during market rebalancing processes, investors will allocate more assets to passive products, especially as more investment scenarios emerge, such as tracking thriving industries, broad asset allocation, and arbitrage. Index funds will play a larger role.

A：Currently, there are enough ETFs, but there are structural issues in the variety of categories, leading to severe homogenity competition, especially in the broad-based ETF track, while coverage of unpopular or niche ETF tracks is insufficient. In addition, there are relatively few ETFs in bond and alternative assets (such as commodities), unable to meet certain allocation needs.

A：By providing solutions or system tools, investors can set profit boundaries, avoid basic errors, increase profit potential, and gain a sense of accomplishment. At the same time, by designing absolute return allocations to reduce drawdown, it helps investors better withstand market fluctuations, thereby enhancing their sense of accomplishment. In addition, the development of innovative index products such as multi-asset indices, all-weather indices, and indices packaged with overseas assets also helps to improve investors' sense of accomplishment.

A：Mr. Chen always believes that dividend-type assets will perform well in the future, especially during bear markets, and can be the focus of allocation. Mr. Zhang recommends three directions: first, industries with high economic prospects, such as AI, robotics, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals; second, diversified asset allocation using index solutions to invest in overseas assets, bulk commodities, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; third, long-term effective strategic products such as dividend and indexed products. Mr. Li mentioned that the technology consumption cycle is the subjective investment direction in 2023, and in the long term, it will usher in the turning point of the first year of diversified asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of balancing the stock-bond relationship.