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消费提振加速,2026如何关注?
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会议摘要
The dialogue focuses on the new consumption trends and investment strategies for 2025, pointing out that the Chinese consumer market is undergoing a structural transformation. Emerging consumption sectors such as IP toys, gold and silver jewelry, outdoor sports, and the pet economy are experiencing significant growth, while online and offline consumption scenes are innovatively integrated. With improving economic data and policy support boosting consumption, Hong Kong-listed consumer ETFs have become preferred tools for diversifying risks and lowering investment thresholds. It is recommended to hold them for the long term and seize the growth opportunities in the new consumer industry.
会议速览
Market dynamics and policy impact: Prospects for the growth of technology and pro-cyclical sectors.
Last week, the overall performance of the market was mixed, with strong performances in sectors such as finance and oil and chemicals. The rebound in manufacturing PMI indicates an improving economy, while a combination of policies boosts investor confidence. Internationally, manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone was lower than expected, and attention is being drawn to geopolitical tensions. With the trend of AI and industrialization in emerging markets, sectors such as technology growth, cyclical consumer goods, and non-banking financial institutions are becoming investment directions worth paying attention to due to factors such as deposit migration and the growth of wealth management needs.
Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference: Upgrading consumer policies and prospects for the economic beginning.
The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes facing economic challenges, proposing measures such as fiscal subsidies and tax incentives to enhance residents' consumption capacity and promote the upgrading of consumption structure, encouraging consumption in service, green, digital, and emerging industries. The conference continues the policy of seeking progress while maintaining stability, aiming to achieve effective improvement in economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity, laying the foundation for the beginning of 2026.
2025 New Consumer Trends: Trade-in, Sports Economy, and Silver Economy Lead Growth.
Looking back at the consumer trends of 2025, the policy of trading in old for new effectively stimulated the sales of electronic products and home appliances, with a year-on-year growth of over 20%. Sports events have boosted tourism, hotels, and other related consumption, while the silver economy has adapted to an aging society with significant growth. The vitality of cultural tourism consumption has been unleashed, digital cultural services are favored by young consumers, and there is ample potential for emerging consumption.
The impact of the Fed rate cut and global liquidity release on the new consumer industry.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, reaffirming risks to the job market and predicting it may cut rates again in 2026. To address market liquidity tightness, the Federal Reserve announced in advance a reserve management bond purchase plan, with an initial purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds. This move is expected to supplement market liquidity, fill in the valuation gap of the consumption sector, redirect funds to the consumer market, and benefit the development of new consumer industries.
New Consumption Concept and Characteristics: From IP Trend to Upgrade of Outdoor Sports Consumption
The dialogue delves into the concept of new consumption, pointing out that it originates from the trend of consumption upgrading, emphasizing the innovation of new technologies, new ideas, and new models to meet the diverse, high-dimensional, and segmented needs of consumers. New consumption encompasses emerging fields such as IP toys, gold and silver jewelry, outdoor sports, milk tea and coffee, pet beauty, reflecting the innovation of categories, products, and services, and reflecting the new trends in the consumer market evolving with economic development.
The rise of new consumption: the integration of online and offline, and the improvement of infrastructure drive the transformation of consumption scenes.
The rise of new consumption is reflected in the transformation of consumption forms from single to online and offline integration. Consumers experience offline and purchase online, social platforms accelerate product dissemination, and improved infrastructure such as 5G, AI, and mobile payment enhance consumption convenience. The prosperity of commercial real estate provides brands with more exposure opportunities, overall promoting the digital transformation of consumption scenes and supply chain optimization.
Transformation of consumption structure and new consumption trends: Generation Z, new elderly people, and the potential of sinking markets.
Discussed current consumption trends, including the consumption preferences of Generation Z and the elderly, as well as the release of consumption potential in third-tier cities and rural areas. Emphasized the growth of the middle-income group, the importance of emotional value and healthy lifestyle, as well as the future growth points of the silver economy and pet economy.
New consumer trends: cost-effectiveness, technology, health, and emotional value.
Discussed the four major trends of new consumer products: high cost-performance ratio, technological attributes, health and wellness consumption, and emotional value. Emphasized the consumers' needs for solving life's pain points, improving experiences, increasing health awareness, and emotional companionship. Pointed out that these qualities make products more easily accepted by the market.
"The Transformation of Modern Consumption Scenes: Online Live Streaming and Offline Business Districts"
Discussed the rise of multiple platforms, new media, and the flow economy in the online consumer scene, as well as the trend of offline premium commercial districts enhancing consumer experience through innovative design and activities, emphasizing the modern consumer characteristics of shortening consumer chains and enhancing consumer experiences.
The new consumption continues to iterate and innovate to meet consumer demands.
The discussion focused on the iterative characteristics of new consumption, emphasizing that consumer demand determines the rise and fall of brands. It was suggested that innovation should include multiple dimensions such as product functions, health trends, and channel optimization. Additionally, it was mentioned that old brands can attract young consumers by redesigning and improving their products. This highlights that continuous innovation and adjustments are crucial to maintaining the vitality of new consumption.
Comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong consumer ETF: covering essential and optional consumer goods, grasping the trend of new consumption.
The dialogue detailed the characteristics of Hong Kong consumer ETF, pointing out that it comprehensively covers both essential consumption (such as dining, sports clothing) and optional consumption (such as trendy animations, pet products), covering the leading consumer companies listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. With policy support boosting consumption, this index is expected to benefit from the development of consumer scenes worth 7.77 trillion and 10 billion levels, making it suitable for investors to match Hong Kong consumer sector targets in one go.
Hong Kong stock connect consumer index: Higher purity new consumption highlights
The conversation introduced the uniqueness of the Hang Seng Stock Connect Consumer Index, emphasizing its differentiation from A-share consumer and Hong Kong technology stocks. This index excludes automobiles and internet platforms, focusing on consumer goods that are closely related to daily life, forming a higher purity new consumer sector that is suitable for investment.
Hong Kong Stock Consumer ETF Investment Strategy: Dollar-Cost Averaging and Market Allocation.
After introducing the industry characteristics and compilation advantages of Hong Kong consumer ETFs, the core advantages of dollar-cost averaging as a long-term investment method for ordinary investors are discussed, including diversifying market volatility risk, lowering investment thresholds, and overcoming human weakness. In addition, based on market conditions, core-satellite allocation and ETF grid trading strategies are recommended to meet the investment needs in different market environments.
Core Plus Satellite Strategy and Hong Kong Consumer ETF: The Art of Balancing Stability and Returns
The dialogue delves into the core-plus-satellite strategy, which combines core assets with satellite assets to achieve a balanced and stable return on investment portfolio. Core assets such as broad-based indices or dividend indices provide long-term stable returns; satellite assets such as industry themes or growth tracks capture excess returns. For the Hong Kong consumption ETF, it is recommended for conservative investors to increase the proportion of core assets, while aggressive investors can increase the proportion of satellite assets. In addition, the ETF grid trading strategy is introduced to enhance returns by using market fluctuations. The Hong Kong consumption ETF (code 159735) is suitable for satellite allocation and should be monitored in the long term in conjunction with personal risk tolerance.
要点回答
Q:In the last week of 2025, which industries performed well, and what are the important macroeconomic data in the domestic market? What major events happened internationally last week, and how did the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone perform?
A:Last week, industries that performed well included integrated finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and media sectors. At the macro level in China, the manufacturing PMI index in December rose above the boom-bust line, indicating an improving economic trend; meanwhile, the simultaneous lowering of existing public accumulation fund and commercial loan interest rates played a catalytic role in the recovery of the real estate and related industries. Internationally, there was an escalation of global geopolitical tensions, such as the United States' sudden attack on Venezuela. In addition, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI median value in December 2025 was 48.8, lower than the boom-bust line, expectations, and previous values, indicating that the manufacturing situation in the Eurozone is not as optimistic as expected.
Q:What are the important contents of the Central Economic Work Conference, especially the interpretation of the growth of new consumption areas?
A:The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to face difficulties and challenges head on, achieve a good start, pointed out the prominent contradiction of strong demand and weak supply domestically, and proposed that macroeconomic policies will continue to be consistent and stable, promoting qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable growth in the economy. The conference emphasized the important role of consumption in stabilizing growth, proposed to enhance residents' consumption capacity through fiscal subsidies, tax incentives, and social security upgrades, and promote structural upgrading of consumption, such as developing areas such as service consumption, green consumption, digital consumption, and consumption of emerging business formats.
Q:What are the new consumer trends this year?
A:The new consumer trends are reflected in many aspects, such as the policy of trading in old products for new ones stimulating the consumption of electronics, with significant year-on-year growth in the retail industry of communication devices and household appliances; sports events driving tourism, airline tickets, hotels, and other related consumption; the silver economy meeting the needs of an aging society, with significant growth in industries such as sports equipment and exhibition services; the vitality of cultural tourism consumption being unleashed, with increased income from literary and artistic creations, performances, and film screenings; digital cultural services aligning with the emotional values and social needs of young people, leading to rapid growth in sales revenue.
Q:What is the impact of the Fed rate cut on the new consumer industry and capital markets?
A:The Fed's rate cut has released global liquidity. Although the rate cut was limited and expectations for future cuts are restrained, its announcement of a reserve management bond purchase plan (buying around $40 billion in short-term treasuries and maintaining high-level purchases in the coming months) exceeded market expectations. The decrease in the Fed's balance sheet size and the unstable state of the repo market have positively impacted the new consumer industry and the capital markets.
Q:What is the reason for the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet expansion?
A:The Federal Reserve's decision to resume balance sheet expansion is mainly due to the possibility that market liquidity may have tightened to a degree that is affecting the transmission of monetary policy, and the rate cut in December as well as the pullback in consumer markets reflects expectations of liquidity tightening. In addition, the Fed's dot plot shows that the number of rate cuts next year is only 1 to 2 times, which is more hawkish compared to market expectations.
Q:What is the concept of new consumption? What are the differences with traditional consumption? What are the reasons for the rise of new consumption?
A:New consumption refers to the products and services that are innovatively launched around the diverse demands of consumers using new technologies, new concepts, and new models, against the background of the deepening trend of consumption upgrading and the upgrading of the operating concepts in the consumer industry. Compared to traditional consumption, new consumption pays more attention to the practical value, emotional value, and diverse, high-dimensional, and segmented demands. The reasons for the rise of new consumption are the increasingly perfect infrastructure, such as the development of mobile internet giving rise to live broadcast sales and instant retail channels; convenient and efficient logistics networks accelerating the circulation of goods; the application of new technologies such as 5G, AI, and mobile payment accelerating the digital transformation of consumption scenes; strengthened purchasing power of consumers willing to pay a premium for technological innovation, creative design, emotional value, and healthy living; at the same time, the younger generation of Generation Z and the post-90s generation have become the main force of consumption, more inclined to seek emotional boosts in consumption.
Q:Which products or brands can be considered examples of new consumption?
A:Examples of new consumption include but are not limited to IP toys (such as blind boxes), gold and silver jewelry (more emotional and decorative), outdoor sports products, milk tea and coffee drinks, pets, and cosmetics. These products have characteristics such as novel categories, a combination of online and offline consumption scenarios, scarcity, and popularity.
Q:What does the term "new old age group" refer to and what impact do they have on the consumer market?
A:The new and old age group mainly refers to middle-aged people aged 50 to 60, who are approaching retirement age, gradually reducing their work intensity, and have sufficient savings and income. This group has formed a wealthy and leisurely consumer group, with the highest consumption ability and strong consumption willingness. They are a sector with great consumption potential in the current consumption structure statistics, and are easy to spawn new popular products in related fields.
Q:What are the trends in changes in consumption structure and income structure? How will future changes in population structure affect consumption trends?
A:Currently, the income structure of the country is optimizing, transitioning from a pyramid shape to an olive shape. The proportion of extremely high-income and low-income groups is decreasing, while the middle-income group is gradually increasing and growing. With the increase in leisure time and wealth accumulation of the middle-income group, their demands for the quality of consumer goods, emotional value in life, and healthy lifestyle are rising. They are no longer overly sensitive to prices and are willing to pay for high-quality products, which is an important trend in current consumption development. With the proportion of the population aged 65 and above exceeding 15%, the silver economy will become a key point, driving the demand for smart homes, elderly care robots, and possibly rapid development of the pet economy. In addition, the young elderly population approaching retirement or recently retired will drive the trend of off-peak travel such as elderly tourism, further promoting economic development.
Q:What is the development potential of the sinking market?
A:The sinking market has great development potential. Third-tier cities and rural areas have a large population base with a higher marginal consumption tendency. In the past, large commercial facilities were mainly concentrated in first- and second-tier cities. However, with the popularization of e-commerce platforms and the construction of logistics networks, consumers in these areas can easily shop online, greatly unleashing the consumption potential of the sinking market.
Q:What are the characteristics of the new consumer products currently on the market?
A:Characteristics of new consumer products that are easily accepted include high cost performance, consumers becoming more rational, focusing on cost performance while pursuing quality; strong technological attributes, such as the application of AI intelligent technology, solving life pain points and enhancing the experience; enhanced health attributes, consumers increasingly focusing on health and healthy diet; emotional value highlighted, such as pet raising, blind box, IP authorized products and games that provide emotional companionship and joyful experiences.
Q:What are the current mainstream consumer scenes?
A:The mainstream consumer scenes are divided into online and offline parts. Online scenes are reflected in multiple platforms, new media, and the form of traffic economy. Brands promote through live streams on social media, use short videos and live media for precise recommendations, reduce cognitive barriers, and form scenario-based seeding and interactive modes. Offline scenes present in multiple experiential forms, including on-site check-ins and offline experiences.
Q:Under the influence of internet short videos and media, what changes have occurred in online consumer scenes?
A:The change in online consumption scenes lies in the shift in consumer decision-making processes. In the past, consumers would search and filter products only after having a clear need, but now, they may not have the intention to purchase, but upon coming across a certain product, they are influenced and sparked with a desire to buy, significantly shortening the consumption cycle.
Q:What are the main changes in offline consumption scenarios?
A:In offline consumer scenarios, the rise and support of high-quality business districts is mainstream. Nowadays, consumers pay more attention to consumption experience, and high-quality business districts and stores have stronger consumer interaction attributes due to their spatial characteristics. Commercial properties continue to upgrade by renovating designs, introducing high-performance brand combinations, hosting creative marketing activities, etc., providing diverse consumption modes such as second-dimensional check-in scenes, naked-eye 3D advertising, cinemas, games, etc., to attract consumers to stay longer and increase consumption frequency.
Q:Characteristics of new consumption and how to maintain its freshness?
A:The characteristics of new consumption are continuous iteration and renewal. Current new consumer categories may be eliminated for reasons such as increased competition, imbalance in price/performance ratio, lack of differentiation, and lag in iterative upgrades. The key is to capture and adapt to current consumer demands. New consumer categories should have strong practical functionality, rich emotional value, and characteristics that match current trends. Manufacturers need to update product supply in a timely manner to meet changing consumer demands. They need to innovate through multiple dimensions such as products, IP, technology functions, and health functions, and optimize channels and brand design in order to attract new consumers and retain old ones.
Q:For investors, how to invest in the new consumer sector?
A:Investors can choose to focus on secondary market ETFs related to the consumer sector, such as the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (code: F159735) that tracks the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Consumer Index. This product includes a series of leading consumer companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, allowing investors to allocate to important targets in the new consumer sector all at once.
Q:What are the characteristics of this index?
A:This index covers a comprehensive range of areas, including both essential consumption (such as dining, sportswear, hotels, travel, etc.) and optional consumption (such as trendy anime, pet peripherals, etc.). The index constituents include leading companies in various consumer industries, benefiting significantly from policy-driven consumption boosts. It also differs significantly from the A-share consumer sector and the Hong Kong technology consumer sector, providing a higher purity investment target for new consumer trends.
Q:When facing thematic ETFs in industries with high elasticity, how should investors choose the appropriate investment method? What are the advantages of regular investment in this regard?
A:For industry-themed ETFs with medium to high elasticity, investors can choose to adopt a long-term investment strategy through regular investment to seize investment opportunities. By regularly investing fixed amounts, investors can achieve low-cost investment during market fluctuations and diversify market risks. The advantages of regular investment are: 1) Diversifying market volatility risks and spreading overall investment costs; 2) Lowering the investment threshold, allowing ordinary investors to participate with small amounts; 3) Overcoming human weaknesses, avoiding emotional decisions, and reducing irrational decisions through mechanized execution.
Q:In addition to dollar-cost averaging, what other investment strategies are suitable for Hong Kong consumer ETFs?
A:Choose investment strategies based on market conditions, such as using a core-satellite portfolio configuration when bullish trends are expected; during market volatility, employ an ETF grid trading strategy to capture short-term gains.
Q:How does the core-plus-satellite strategy work?
A:The core-satellite strategy divides the investment portfolio into core assets (aiming for stable returns, such as broad-based index or dividend index) and satellite assets (targeting opportunistic opportunities, such as industry themes), combining the two to balance risk and return flexibility.
Q:How do investors set their portfolio allocation based on their own characteristics?
A:Conservative investors may increase the proportion of core assets, while aggressive investors may lower the proportion of core assets appropriately and increase the proportion of satellite assets, such as allocating Hong Kong consumer ETFs at the satellite end, and also balancing with other products with greater growth potential.
Q:Is there an investment method that can flexibly seize band opportunities?
A:You can consider using ETF grid trading strategy, which is based on setting buy and sell points based on market price fluctuations, buying in batches when the market price falls, and selling in batches when the price rises, thereby enhancing profits by taking advantage of market fluctuations.
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