阿里巴巴 (BABA.US、09988.HK) 2026财年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Alibaba's performance in the September quarter of 2025 show that, excluding Gaohin and Yintai, Group revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, with strong performance in core businesses. Alibaba Cloud saw a 34% increase in revenue, external commercialization revenue accelerated to 29%, and AI-related products have seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters, with the flagship model Xunyi 3 max leading globally. China's e-commerce CMR grew by 10%, instant retail business expanded in scale, and user retention and frequency exceeded expectations. The Group announced the launch of the "Qianwen" project, aimed at building a leading global personal AI assistant and deepening the synergies among AI, cloud, and big consumer platforms. Management stated that they will continue to invest in AI infrastructure and instant retail business to achieve long-term market share growth, and are optimistic about the return on investment in the AI field.
会议速览
Overview of Alibaba Group's September 2025 quarterly performance conference call.This phone conference focused on the performance of Alibaba Group in the September quarter of 2025. Management emphasized the risks and uncertainties of forward-looking statements, reminding participants to pay attention to non-GAAP financial indicators and their reconciliations with GAAP indicators. The IR director hosted and guided the discussion, while members of management shared performance details and future outlook. The recording will be uploaded to the official website for reference later.
Alibaba Cloud achieves steady growth, AI technology leading market trends.In the past quarter, Alibaba Group's performance has shown steady growth, with revenue excluding specific factors increasing by 15% compared to the same period last year. The core businesses of China's e-commerce CMR and Cloud Intelligence Group saw revenue growth of 10% and 34% respectively. Alibaba Cloud, driven by the demand for AI, saw its external commercial revenue accelerating to a 29% increase, and revenue from AI-related products has seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters. Alibaba Cloud continues to enhance its overall AI capabilities, launching the flagship model "Qianwen 3 max" and leading in multiple technological capabilities globally. Market shares have been increasing in various segmented fields, with leading growth in hybrid cloud and financial cloud, while maintaining a leading position in the AI cloud market. Recent AI collaborations have been made with NBA, Marriott, China UnionPay, and others.
Alibaba's Thousand Questions project has been launched, AI technology empowers the upgrade of consumption and services.Alibaba officially launched the Thousand Questions project, aiming to create a leading global personal AI assistant and promote the application of AI technology in both B-side and C-side markets. The beta version of the Thousand Questions app went online for a week with over 10 million downloads, demonstrating strong market potential. The company plans to integrate Thousand Questions into e-commerce, maps, and other business ecosystems, building the future AI life portal. At the same time, Alibaba is promoting technology retail and ecosystem synergy in the consumer sector to improve user experience and enhance platform effects. High peak DAU of Amap reached a historical high, and the unbinding function significantly increased user activity. In the future, Alibaba will continue to invest in AI and cloud consumer platforms, leveraging deep integration of technology and ecosystem to stimulate new business growth potential.
Alibaba Group's Q3 financial report: Focusing on AI+ cloud strategy, balance between revenue and investment.Alibaba Group's third quarter financial report shows that total revenue reached 247.8 billion yuan, with a 15% increase in revenue on the same caliber after excluding specific factors. The group continues to increase investment in instant retail and AI cloud infrastructure, resulting in a free cash flow outflow of 21.8 billion yuan. Revenue from the Chinese e-commerce group increased by 16% year-on-year, cloud business revenue accelerated by 34%, and AI-related product revenue accounted for over 20%. Despite the decrease in operating profit and net profit, the group is confident in its reinvestment strategy with a balance sheet of 41 billion US dollars in net cash, aiming to consolidate its market leading position and drive future growth.
Telephone conference Q&A section is now open, providing bilingual services in Chinese and English and subsequent recording.During the telephone conference, we will enter the Q&A session where participants can ask questions in Chinese or English. Real-time interpretation will be provided on site to assist understanding. The bilingual records of the meeting will be published on the website within one week to ensure accurate information dissemination.
Analysis of Factors Driving Cloud Business Growth and AI DemandThe dialogue revolves around the growth potential of cloud business and the driving factors of AI demand. It points out that customer demand is strong, especially in the areas of product research and development, manufacturing, and customer usage where AI applications are deepening, driving the continuous growth of cloud computing power demand. Although China lacks large AI enterprises, cloud support is required for enterprise model training, inference, and terminal customer use of AI products, showing the broad prospects for future AI demand.
Fast business cooperation with core e-commerce business progress and fourth quarter financial outlookDiscussed the collaborative progress between fast business and core e-commerce business, as well as financial forecasts for CML and EBITDA in the December quarter, emphasizing the integration effectiveness and future growth expectations of both.
Flash purchase business optimization has achieved significant results, driving the coordinated growth of e-commerce and retail.The management team shared significant progress in optimizing the order structure and reducing logistics costs in the flash sale business, resulting in a substantial decrease in losses per order and exceeding expectations in user retention and purchase frequency. The rapid growth of flash sales in retail categories, especially in food and health and supermarket goods, has led to growth in related businesses. In the future, the company plans to deepen user experience, focus on high-value users and retail category development, aiming to bring trillions in transactions to the platform within three years and increase market share.
"E-commerce group CMR and EBITDA fluctuation analysis and adjustment of investment strategy"Discussed the positive impact of flash sales business on customer relationship management (CMR), as well as plans to enhance efficiency in the future through collaboration between traditional e-commerce and rapid e-commerce. Mentioned the impact of payment processing fees and site-wide promotion technology on CMR, with an expected slowdown in growth next quarter. Emphasized long-term market share goals, with fluctuations expected in CMR and EBITDA in the short term. Investment strategy will be adjusted according to market dynamics to achieve long-term goals.
Efficiency optimization and cost saving distribution strategy for e-commerce platformsThe discussion focused on how to allocate cost savings between consumer subsidies, merchant subsidies, and platform revenue in the efficiency optimization phase of e-commerce platforms. It was proposed to maintain the intensity of consumer subsidies while increasing UE (unit economic efficiency) by optimizing user structure and improving order ratio. The importance of new user conversion, growth of traffic within Taobao, and the commercial potential of flash sale channels in increasing UE was emphasized. It was also pointed out that market competitiveness will affect strategy adjustments, and a dynamic balance of interests from all parties is needed.
E-commerce platforms enhance user experience and order value, tapping into user stickiness and traffic monetization potential.The conversation focuses on the main work of e-commerce platforms in the current stage, that is, increasing the revenue contribution of each order by optimizing user experience and increasing the average order value. At the same time, by improving logistics efficiency and converting new users into high-stickiness users, further expanding the scale of orders and adjusting subsidy methods. In addition, it emphasizes the rapid commercialization potential of platforms such as Taobao APP, especially in the fast e-commerce channel with over a billion daily active users, demonstrating important opportunities in user stickiness and traffic monetization in the future. Faced with fierce competition in the market environment, strategies will be dynamically adjusted to grasp market dynamics.
Exploring the Relationship between Capital Expenditure and Incremental Cloud RevenueDiscussed the 380 billion capital expenditure plan for the next three years, emphasizing that the current speed of server deployment does not match the growth rate of customer orders, and additional investments may be needed. It was pointed out that the AI industry is still in its early stages, making it difficult to estimate the ratio of capital expenditure to incremental revenue. Different application methods lead to varying levels of revenue and gross profit margins. It is important to pay long-term attention to the quality and cost-effectiveness of tokens generated by infrastructure.
Resource allocation and priority considerations for a full-stack AI service provider during the investment cycle.Discussed how full-stack AI service providers should deal with supply chain fluctuations and allocate resources reasonably during the current important investment cycle, especially in the construction of underlying capabilities at the model-as-a-service (MaaS) layer and the rapid iteration and advancement on the application side. Emphasized the importance of ensuring foundational model training, improving AI resource utilization efficiency, and prioritizing high-value external clients as key considerations.
AI demand surges and supply chain bottlenecks: resources will be in short supply in the next three years.Discussed the trend of continuous improvement in AI model capabilities and the expansion of application scenarios in the field of AI, predicting that the demand for AI will maintain high growth rates over the next three years. It also pointed out that components related to global AI servers have been facing shortages since the second half of this year, and it is estimated that the supply chain expansion cycle will last up to two to three years. During this period, AI resources will continue to be in short supply.
Alibaba discusses layout of big consumer market and future investment direction.The conversation revolves around Alibaba's strategy in the Chinese consumer market, mentioning its layout in areas such as Hema, offline supermarkets O2O, Fliegende Schweine, and Amap's local life. Management emphasizes integrating existing businesses, improving synergy, and expanding market share.
要点回答
Q：What are the main objectives for the next phase of investment and how will it affect the company's financial metrics?
A：The main objectives for the next phase of investment include better integrating and achieving synergies across conventional e-commerce and quick commerce to realize the positive impact of these investments. The company is in an investment phase which affects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and will likely see the highest scale of investments in the September quarter. As efficiency improves and the scale of the business stabilizes, the company expects significant user growth and a reduction in the scale of investments. Investments will be dynamically adjusted in line with market competition.
Q：How will the introduction of new fees and the ongoing investments affect the company's CMR and EBITDA in the short term?
A：The company's CMR (which likely refers to revenue) will be impacted by the base effect and the introduction of payment processing fees, as well as the rollout of a new technology. After the base effect sets in, starting from the next quarter, the company expects a slowdown in growth due to the impact of these fees. The company's primary focus is on securing medium and long-term market share and will continue to invest in consumers, merchants, and the upgrading of the e-commerce platform business model. This focus is expected to result in short-term fluctuations in CMR and EBITDA.
Q：What is the strategy for cost savings and how will these savings be distributed among stakeholders?
A：The strategy for cost savings includes maintaining the same level of intensity in consumer subsidies while relying on user mix optimization and increasing order and user share to drive higher basket sizes. The company aims to use the cost savings to maintain or enhance the intensity of subsidies to consumers and merchants, and to improve user experience. The exact distribution of cost savings among stakeholders, including consumers, merchants, and the platform, was not specified in the transcript and would require further information.
Q：How will the focus on user experience and average order value impact revenue and what are the potential areas for growth?
A：The focus on user experience and increasing the average order value will impact revenue positively by increasing the revenue attributable to each order, which is directly related to the average order value. Improvements in logistics efficiency, which have been optimized with scale, will further contribute to this growth. The company plans to increase consumer粘性 (st黏性) and modify the ways in which subsidies are provided. Additionally, the growth in daily user traffic on the platform, particularly on the flash sale channel, presents a significant opportunity for monetization and enhancing user experience. The company will continue to monitor market competition and adjust its strategies accordingly.
Q：What are the considerations and expectations regarding future capital expenditures and their impact on incremental cloud revenue?
A：The company had previously planned a three-year investment of $38 billion, but considering the faster growth in customer orders and the inability to keep up with the demand, the company is likely to exceed this amount. While the exact incremental cloud revenue driven by capital expenditures (CAPEX) is not specified, the company's priority is to meet customer demand as quickly as possible. The supply chain is influenced by various factors, but the company remains committed to investing in its AI infrastructure to meet these demands. Consequently, the initial $38 billion investment may prove to be insufficient based on current customer demand.
Q：Regarding how capital expenses bring incremental revenues and how this ratio is calculated.
A：Currently, it is difficult to make accurate estimates of the proportion between capital expenditure and incremental income, mainly because the AI industry is still in its early stages of development and our AI infrastructure is used in various ways, including direct renting to customers for training, renting servers for inference, and internal applications (such as Gaode, Taobao, Qianwen Quark, etc.) converted into membership services or products. These different application methods lead to varying levels of revenue and gross profit margins, so the current ratio may not be stable. However, in the long run, we are more concerned about the quality and cost-effectiveness of the tokens generated by the infrastructure.
Q：If we cannot meet all the customers' demands at the current investment pace, would we consider further expanding this category?
A：If we truly cannot meet customer demands, we do not rule out expanding investment. However, whether further expansion can be achieved largely depends on the availability of supply chain and resources. Overall, we will make significant investments in AI infrastructure to meet customer demands. Considering the current trend of diverse and rapidly growing customer demand for AI, the budget of 38 billion may be on the low side.
Q：What are the factors driving the growth of AI demand?
A：The growth of AI demand is being driven by the increasing model capabilities of AI models, the expansion of the number of适配场景， and the rising渗透率 of AI across various industries.
Q：What is the current state of the AI supply and demand market?
A：The AI market currently exhibits a state of high demand and low supply, with AI servers and related components experiencing global shortages. The supply chain from fabricators to storage vendors is struggling to keep up with the demand driven by AI, resulting in a bottleneck.
Q：What does the speaker suggest about the potential for an AI bubble?
A：The speaker suggests that with rapid growth in demand and the supply challenges outlined, there is no indication of an AI bubble.供不应求的情况预计在未来几年将持续，而且现有的及上一代的GPU利用率都非常高。
Q：What is Alibaba's strategy in the consumption market?
A：Alibaba's strategy in the consumption market involves growing its market share in China by focusing on integrating and optimizing its existing diverse business布局s, including quick commerce, technology retail, and other areas such as box stores, offline O2O models, and local services. The emphasis is on enhancing协同效应 among these businesses to drive future market share growth in the consumption market.
