摩根大通公司 (JPM.US) 2025年第三季度业绩电话会

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会议摘要

The dialogue highlights economic and financial concerns, including the labor market's low hiring and firing due to uncertainty, AI's potential impact on productivity and expense management in banks, the reduced systemic risk of NBFIs lending, regulators' role in addressing mortgage rates and capital requirements, and strategies for loan yields and deposit pricing. Experts emphasize the need for disciplined expense management, structured lending, proactive regulatory approaches, and disciplined pricing for long-term market share goals.

会议速览

Q3 2025 Earnings Report Highlights Revenue Growth and Strategic Updates

JPMorgan Chase ISS reported strong Q3 2025 earnings with net income of Ed Ed billion and EPS of $5.07, driven by higher markets revenue and fees. The firm noted resilience in consumer and small business sectors, with record AUM and client assets growth in Asset and Wealth Management. Guidance for Q4 2025 and 2026 was provided, highlighting expectations for NII, expenses, and card MCO rates.

2026 Financial Outlook: Deposit Growth, Loan Trends, and Rate Assumptions

A detailed discussion on the projected financial performance for 2026, focusing on retail and commercial deposit growth, loan trends, and interest rate assumptions. The conversation highlights the impact of macroeconomic shifts on deposit growth, the role of net new accounts, and the balance of rate headwinds against growth dynamics. Loan growth trends and the annualization of current rates are also addressed, with an emphasis on solid wholesale loan trends and the need for continuous refinement of projections.

Insights on Credit Fundamentals and Lending Demand in Public vs Private Markets

A discussion unfolds on the drivers of client demand for lending services and the differentiation in credit fundamentals between public and private markets. The dialogue explores the current landscape of credit in syndicated loans, high-yield markets, and private debt, highlighting the unique dynamics and challenges faced in each sector.

Analysis of Financial Charge-offs, Demand Trends, and Public-Private Credit Differentiation

Discusses charge-offs, particularly noting $170 million from Tricolor, clarifies no exposure to First Brand, highlights strong demand and deal flow, and addresses nuances in public-private credit performance and expected loss normalization.

Discussion on Reserve Build, Capital Utilization, and Lending Strategies

The dialogue covers reserve build strategies, particularly regarding commercial loans, and the bank's approach to utilizing excess capital, including lending to critical industries and potential dividend increases, emphasizing a balanced strategy that includes direct equity investments and supporting economic growth.

Economic Resilience Amid Uncertainty and AI's Impact on Bank Expenses

The dialogue discusses economic resilience, particularly consumer spending, and potential labor market deterioration risks. It explores AI's role in enhancing productivity and managing bank expenses, emphasizing disciplined expense growth and AI's tangible outcomes. The conversation underscores the need for balanced economic foresight and strategic investment in AI to mitigate future uncertainties.

Assessing Risk in NDF Lending and Industry Practices

The dialogue explores the risks associated with non-bank financial institution (NDF) lending, emphasizing the importance of underwriting standards and the potential for higher risks during economic downturns. It highlights the industry's approach to managing these risks through conservative practices and the securitization of loans. The speakers also discuss the systemic nature of the NDF lending sector and the potential for unexpected credit cycles to impact these investments.

Reviewing Processes After Fraud Incidents for Improved Underwriting and Procedures

The dialogue emphasizes the importance of thoroughly reviewing all processes, procedures, and underwriting practices following a fraud incident. It suggests that such events should prompt a comprehensive examination to prevent future occurrences, acknowledging that no system is perfect and improvements are always possible.

Strategies for Lowering Mortgage Rates and Impact of New Administration on Regulatory Changes

Discussed methods to reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields without affecting yields, emphasizing the reduction of regulatory requirements post-financial crisis. Addressed potential government actions to boost housing market activity and explored impacts of the new administration on regulatory shifts, including expectations on Basel 3 endgame revisions.

Administration's Swift Transition from Policy to Action

Discussion highlights the administration's rapid policy implementation, aligning with comprehensive press reports, emphasizing a decisive push for quick and thorough action.

Holistic Approach to Capital Rules for Diverse Business Mixes

The dialogue underscores the importance of a holistic, mathematically sound approach to capital rules, emphasizing individual risk assessment. It highlights the direction towards reasonable capitalization for residential mortgage lending, urging timely implementation despite complexities, and aligning with the principle of not letting perfection hinder progress.

Regulatory Missteps and the Illusion of Bank Safety in CCAR and Capital Metrics

The dialogue critiques the inaccuracies in regulatory assessments like CCAR and capital metrics, highlighting their disconnect from reality. It emphasizes the need for better risk management, particularly interest rate exposure, and calls for regulatory bodies to focus on genuine safety measures rather than signaling.

Expenses Outlook: Normalizing Labor Inflation and Strategic Investments

The dialogue discusses the projected expense growth, highlighting a new normal for labor inflation at around 3-4% annually. It emphasizes strategic investments in growth areas, competitive pay for talent, and productivity enhancements, including AI-driven efficiency, while acknowledging the broader impact of inflation on the cost base.

Navigating NDF Exposure Risks and RWAs in Securitization

The dialogue explores strategies for assessing NDF exposure risks and future credit risk, emphasizing the need for narrowing focus on specific sectors. It also discusses the potential benefits and concerns of reducing RWAs in securitization structures, suggesting a balanced approach to evaluating private market pricing and homework to mitigate risks.

Investment Banking Environment Shows Strength Amid Rate Cut Uncertainty

The investment banking sector is experiencing robust activity, driven by a backlog of deals and favorable market conditions. Despite upcoming rate cuts, the impact on financial sponsors' behavior is uncertain, with more significant effects anticipated from factors like yield curve flattening. The environment is currently supportive, evidenced by increased M&A activity and a busy summer for deal announcements, though conditions can shift rapidly.

Strategies for Capital Deployment Amid Rising RWA Growth

Discusses the careful consideration of deploying capital towards high-return opportunities versus buybacks, emphasizing the importance of franchise accretive business and avoiding excessive leverage, while maintaining a strategic approach to capital relief and RWA growth.

Analysis of Loan Yields and Sapphire Card Refresh Impact on Revenue

The dialogue explores the factors behind rising loan yields, attributing them to mix effects and floating rates, despite decreasing interest rates. It also discusses the Sapphire card refresh, explaining how transitional value enhancements affect revenue rates, creating a temporary dip before eventual recovery, highlighting the complex accounting dynamics involved.

Strategies for Achieving Long-Term Retail Deposit Market Share Growth

Discussion focused on maintaining disciplined deposit pricing, validating current strategies through market share gains in key expansion areas, and emphasizing core value proposition and expansion plans for reaching 15% national retail deposit market share long-term.

要点回答

Q：What are the main factors contributing to the increase in revenue and expenses?

A：The increase in revenue was predominantly driven by higher markets revenue and higher fees across investment management, investment banking, and payments. Expenses were up due to higher volume and revenue-related expenses. Credit costs were $3.4 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.6 billion.

Q：How did the different business segments contribute to the firm's financial performance?

A：CIB reported net income of $6.9 billion, up 17% year on year, driven by revenues across markets, payments, and investment banking. AWM reported net income of $1.7 billion with a pretax margin of 36%, recording record revenue of $6.1 billion, up 12% year on year. Consumer credit performance was in line with expectations despite some elevated wholesale charge-offs due to instances of apparent fraud.

Q：What is the projected financial outlook for the remainder of the year and the upcoming quarter?

A：The projected full-year guidance includes fourth-quarter NII (excluding markets) of approximately $17 billion and total NII of about $24.5 billion. Expenses are expected to be approximately $24.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The projected fourth-quarter script card net charge off rate is approximately 1.8% unfavorable, and there's an expectation for continued resilience in the consumer.

Q：How does the current macroeconomic environment impact retail deposit growth assumptions?

A：The current macroeconomic environment, with a lower personal savings rate, robust consumer spending, and lower income, causes slightly lower retail deposit growth assumptions compared to previous expectations. However, strong equity market performance is driving flows into investments, which are being captured in wealth management, and is a slight headwind to retail deposit balances.

Q：What key assumptions drive the 2026 outlook, particularly in commercial deposits and loan growth?

A：The key assumptions for the 2026 outlook include the use of current forward curves as of September 2025, with relevant cost impacts of a 25 basis point cut in the first half of 2026. The drivers include car and revolver growth, which has been a significant tailwind but will slow down as normalization is close to complete. Healthy acquisition dynamics will continue to be a growth driver.

Q：What is the reason for the large charge-offs reported in the quarter?

A：The large charge-offs reported in the quarter, amounting to 170 million, are attributed to the tricolor thing, which is contributing to the numbers on the wholesale side.

Q：What is the general outlook on demand and public-private differentiation?

A：The outlook on demand suggests that revived animal spirits are driving demand with healthy deal flow. The company is seeing acquisition finance come back and is involved in large deals. They point to a product-agnostic credit strategy as playing out very nicely, indicating differentiation in fundamentals between private and public spaces might not be as pronounced as it depends on how one defines the space.

Q：Are private deals performing differently from public deals?

A：The speaker hasn't heard anything to suggest that private deals are performing differently from public deals, although there are new direct lending initiatives with slightly higher expected losses.

Q：How does the expected increase in wholesale charge-offs relate to normalization and portfolio mix?

A：The expected increase in wholesale charge-offs is related to normalization as the industry moves away from extremely low rates to more normal levels. The current portfolio has a different mix, which is expected to result in a slightly higher charge-off rate, but this comes with appropriate revenues and returns.

Q：How are reserves calculated and what impact does a changing portfolio mix have on reserves?

A：Reserves are calculated in a highly granular and specific manner, and the mix of loan growth will come with slightly higher reserve intensity on a situation-by-situation basis. As the portfolio mix changes, such as with growth in direct lending deals, it will likely result in higher reserve requirements.

Q：What is the excess capital utilization strategy and how does it relate to potential dividend hikes?

A：The excess capital utilization strategy involves growing the franchise by supporting industries critical to the security of the company. It also involves lending into the real economy broadly across the entire franchise. This strategy relates to potential dividend hikes as the company generates organic capital and has a large access to capital which is being utilized for growth and potentially for dividends.

Q：How is the current consumer and commercial market situation?

A：The current consumer situation is characterized as resilient, with strong spending and delinquency rates coming in below expectations. There is a discussion about a low hiring, low firing moment in the labor market, suggesting potential high uncertainty. While the risk of a deteriorating labor market and consumer credit performance is acknowledged, it is not guaranteed to happen, and the focus is on current facts rather than predictions.

Q：How should AI and AI-driven productivity gains be considered in terms of expense growth?

A：AI and AI-driven productivity gains are significant for the bank's expense growth outlook. However, the risk is that the focus on AI can be overwhelming and may lead to less efficient practices if not properly implemented. The bank is focusing on old-fashioned expense discipline and constraining growth and headcount. They are not demanding proof of savings from AI but are applying pressure to the organization to not hire more staff in response to every need, as a means of controlling expenses.

Q：What are the implications of correctly aligning capitalization with risk in the residential mortgage lending market?

A：Correctly aligning capitalization with risk in the residential mortgage lending market is crucial for banks to play their appropriate role in the market, ensuring that the instruments on the balance sheet are well capitalized in a manner that aligns with the level of risk involved.

Q：Why do the speaker and others believe the current capital and operational risk numbers are inaccurate?

A：The speaker and others believe that current capital and operational risk numbers are inaccurate because they are highly questionable and not remotely related to reality, as seen in the case of the CCAR test. It is suggested that these numbers should be published with a disclosure indicating their inaccuracy.

Q：What are the biggest frustrations regarding banks focusing on governance and interest rate exposure?

A：The biggest frustration is that banks could have fixed issues such as reduced liquidity and capital to make the system safer. However, there is concern that the focus has been so much on governance that it has overshadowed the importance of managing interest rate exposure.

Q：What is the projected year-over-year expense growth, and what are the factors influencing it?

A：The projected year-over-year expense growth is 4%, influenced by factors such as seasonality in expenses, general labor cost inflation, and a focus on extracting productivity while also investing for growth in areas like mortgage banking. Additionally, there is an emphasis on paying competitively to retain talent in a market where there is significant competition.

Q：How should investors approach assessing NDF exposure and future credit risk?

A：Investors should assess NDF exposure by focusing on specific areas such as subprime auto lending and lending to large asset managers on a secured basis, as these are distinct risk profiles. They should be aware that credit losses tend to increase during downturns and should be prepared for potential elevated losses in certain categories. Additionally, investors should do their homework by analyzing price movements and understanding the different types of mortgage-backed instruments.

Q：What is the role of SFA in securitization and how does it affect RWA?

A：SFA, or Standardized Approach for securitization, is a technical aspect within securitization where under certain conditions, the risk weighting can be reduced from 100% to 20%, which is still considered high. It is used as a mechanism to decrease the regulatory capital requirements (RWA) for certain structures.

Q：What impact will upcoming rate cuts have on investment banking and financial sponsors' activity?

A：While it is unclear whether upcoming rate cuts will significantly change the behavior of the sophisticated financial sponsor community, the current investment banking environment is robust and the tone is very upbeat. The activity among financial sponsors may pick up due to these rate cuts, especially if they lead to a flattening of the yield curve or other economic conditions that stimulate deal-making.

Q：What are the current conditions in the equity market that are favorable for M&A activity?

A：The current conditions in the equity market that are favorable for M&A activity include more breadth in the rally in terms of multiples, especially in the smaller cap tech sector, and relatively low equity market volatility. Additionally, the rate environment is supportive enough to facilitate deal-making.

Q：How is the increase in RWA growth affecting capital relief and M&A strategies?

A：The increase in RWA growth is prompting discussions about capital relief and strategies for growth. It's suggested that the industry is carefully weighing the risks and returns, ensuring that growth strategies remain franchise accretive and that the estimation of returns on new business is subject to uncertainty.

Q：Why are buybacks and stock repurchases not currently the preferred methods for capital allocation?

A：Buybacks and stock repurchases are not currently the preferred methods for capital allocation because at the current levels, these methods do not provide great returns on investment.

Q：What are the main drivers behind the increase in loan yields?

A：The main drivers behind the increase in loan yields are mix effects, which can result from changes in the types of loans held by the company. Even with the presence of floating rate instruments, small changes in the mix can cause noticeable changes in yields.

Q：What impact does the Sapphire refresh have on card revenue and fees?

A：The Sapphire refresh has led to increased value for customers ahead of annual fee increases, resulting in elevated numbers for a few months during the refresh process. This transitional period affects the revenue rate and card fees, leading to an expectation that normalization of these figures will take a couple of quarters.

Q：Does the bank need to adjust its pricing strategy to improve market share?

A：The bank's current pricing strategy is not expected to need to be materially different from recent history to improve market share. The focus is on disciplined pricing, which has been effective and is aligned with the long-term growth strategy that emphasizes expansion and deepening the core value proposition. Local market results show the strategy is working.

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