Spotify Technology SA (SPOT.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Spotify reported significant growth in subscribers and MAUs, with a focus on expanding audiobook services, enhancing user engagement through generative AI, and improving monetization strategies across music, podcasts, and video. The company also doubled its share buyback authorization to $2 billion, emphasizing long-term investments and financial flexibility.
会议速览

This meeting is the financial report conference call for Spotify in the second quarter of 2025, hosted by the Head of Investor Relations, Brian Goldberg, with senior executives such as the CEO, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Product and Technology Officer, and CFO participating. During the meeting, the team will share the performance of the quarter, operational highlights of the company, and future outlook, and will also accept questions from analysts and participants through the Slido platform. In addition, the meeting also mentioned the use of safe harbor statements and non-GAAP financial metrics.

In the second quarter of 2025, Spotify achieved significant user growth, particularly in the increase of subscription users and Monthly Active Users (MAU), with a net increase of over 30% in subscription users, surpassing 100 million subscription users in the European region. The company emphasized the positive impact of content expansion and product improvement on its business, as well as the value creation for nearly 700 million users. However, the performance of the advertising business did not meet expectations, and the company is actively adjusting to ensure future growth. Overall, the company is confident in its business model and long-term strategy, committed to providing more value for users and creators through innovation, with the goal of establishing a global, vibrant platform that benefits everyone. At the same time, Spotify emphasizes that its decisions are based on long-term value rather than short-term quarterly performance.

In this quarter, Spotify has seen significant growth in both users and subscribers, surpassing over 3% of the global population subscribing to its services. This shows enormous growth potential, with the goal possibly reaching 10%-15% of the global population. In mature markets, Spotify continues to discover new subscription growth opportunities and maintains a healthy conversion rate from free to paid users. In terms of advertising business, although it is full of potential, there is a need to accelerate development to contribute more financial revenue. Spotify is actively collaborating with brand partners, utilizing automated advertising and new tools, with a year-on-year growth of over 40% in active advertisers. In the future, the focus will be on improving operational efficiency, launching more advertiser tools, optimizing inventory performance, and achieving comprehensive monetization of new channels.

Spotify has successfully enhanced user engagement and business impact by providing diverse content formats. Data shows that the more content formats users engage with, the more active and long-lasting their usage on the platform. Particularly, video podcasts have performed exceptionally well, with consumption growing rapidly. Since 2024, video consumption has grown 20 times faster than pure audio consumption, with over 430,000 video podcasts on the platform attracting over 350 million users at a 65% annual growth rate. Additionally, Spotify holds a 45% share of paid users in the global music streaming market (excluding China and Russia), and this proportion continues to increase.

With the advent of the generative AI era, Spotify has significantly enhanced user interaction by improving its technological capabilities. For example, its introduction of the Spotify DJ feature has been widely popular, with user interaction almost doubling. Especially in over 60 markets, the DJ feature utilizes AI and recommendations from global editorial experts to provide music request services, allowing users to delve deeper into music exploration. Additionally, through the expansion of AI playlist tools, Spotify has attracted millions of users to create personalized playlists, further increasing user interaction and usage time, with global DJ streaming increasing by nearly 45%, generating tens of millions of interactions accumulated.

In the past, creating user playlists relied on analyzing users' listening history, such as save and skip behaviors. Now, with the help of generative AI, users can directly express their specific needs for playlists using natural language, such as emotions, scenes, etc., which are aspects that were difficult to capture solely through listening data in the past. This new approach allows for continuous iteration and optimization of products without the need for additional product or feature development, achieving a virtuous cycle of preference optimization. After the initial application of AI to optimize playlists, significant performance improvements have been observed, including users listening for longer periods of time and saving playlists more frequently. According to Luminate's data, 65% of global audio music streaming occurs on Spotify.

In the second quarter, Spotify's monthly active users (MAU) increased to 696 million, exceeding expectations by 7 million. At the same time, net added subscribers reached 8 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%, reaching 276 million, exceeding expectations by 3 million. Total revenue reached 4.2 billion euros, a 15% year-on-year increase. Currency fluctuations affected revenue in the quarter, amounting to 140 million euros. The company's gross profit margin was 31.5%, remaining stable, with operating income at 460 million euros, but lower than expected due to factors such as higher than expected social costs. In addition, the company also announced that it has 8.4 billion euros in cash and short-term investments, demonstrating a strong financial position.

The company expects MAU to reach 710 million in the third quarter, an increase of 14 million; the number of subscription users is expected to be 281 million, an increase of 5 million. Total revenue is forecasted to be 4.2 billion, but due to unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations, it is expected to suffer a loss of about 200 million. However, the company is confident in its business and expects profit margin expansion for the full year of 2025 after strategic investments for future growth. Additionally, the company also anticipates that the quarterly free gross margin rate will remain on par with the previous two quarters after excluding regulatory expenses, and the annual operating profit margin will achieve year-on-year growth.

The company emphasizes its strong liquidity and the expected annual growth rate of healthy free cash flow by 2025, focusing on growth opportunities and balance sheet management to support long-term strategic goals. In the face of upcoming maturing exchange notes, the company has planned and received board approval to increase the share repurchase authorization to $2 billion to enhance flexibility and consider shareholder interests. It is expected that the returns on recent investments will be more evident in the third quarter, maintaining confidence in the company's growth and believing in the potential for healthy growth.

Spotify is actively considering introducing multi-level services, including specific levels for super fans, such as 'Superfan', to meet the needs of different user groups. The company emphasizes that since its establishment, they have always adhered to high standards of product value and release time, and are currently steadily advancing this process, although progress takes time. In addition, Spotify has launched audio book subscription services in 13 markets, aiming to meet super fans' needs for books and provide more access privileges for family plan subscription accounts. The company is full of confidence in the future super fan segmentation market in areas such as music, podcasts, and videos, and will continue to actively develop related products.

The company's management explained the reasons why the gross profit margin did not exceed expectations, emphasizing that they have not changed their guidance and expect to increase the gross profit margin in the long term. At the same time, they discussed how AI technology can play a role in improving production efficiency, product development, and enhancing consumer experience, especially in fast prototyping design and speeding up the entire workflow.

The introduction of generative AI marks a significant shift in product development, especially for product personnel, where the traditional evaluation process has been replaced by product requirement documents (PRD). At the core of this transformation, AI has moved from past user signals (such as playback, save, etc.) to more refined user direct feedback. Users can interact with products like Spotify through natural language, providing more specific and personalized data. This new data set not only enriches the understanding of user preferences for products but also promotes interactivity and personalization of user experience, shifting from predictive experiences to reasoning experiences based on user history and explicit needs, heralding a great change in future user interaction methods.

Spotify discussed its capital allocation strategy, planning to use stock buybacks as a flexible tool while prioritizing company growth opportunities. In terms of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) trends, the company noted that it will remain neutral in the third quarter, with a long-term strategy focused on optimizing subscriber numbers rather than quarterly revenue. In terms of business investments, Spotify emphasized its role as a research and development engine in the music industry, continuously investing to support future pricing especially as it expands into areas such as audio books, video, podcasts, and education.

The discussion focuses on Spotify's significant progress and prospects in the vertical fields of music, video, and books, emphasizing that 3% of the global population are already paid subscribers of Spotify, while also looking forward to potentially reaching a subscription rate of 10% or 15%. Additionally, the discussion also mentions Spotify's market share and streaming share in the music industry, as well as views on packaging and pricing strategies for new products, highlighting the importance of user engagement.

After the Apple lawsuit, the conversion rate of iOS payment subscriptions has improved, not only promoting Spotify's growth in the United States and emerging markets but also enhancing consumer experience. Now, Spotify can communicate directly with users and add calls to action without the need for email or third-party platforms for user redirection. Additionally, this change has opened up new business opportunities for Spotify, such as increasing revenue through the sale of books and other digital products, thereby integrating the three revenue models of advertising, subscriptions, and one-time transactions. Spotify looks forward to similar regulatory changes in Europe to further expand these benefits.

In the discussion, it was mentioned that Spotify's adjustment of its podcast business model had an impact on its advertising business in the second quarter, highlighting that the removal of some exclusive podcast inventory directly affected revenue. At the same time, the company remains optimistic about the growth of podcasts and video content, with video consumption far outpacing audio, and users who watch videos spending more than those who only listen to audio. The adjusted advertising revenue growth rate is in the low double digits, excluding the impact of short-term strategic adjustments.

Spotify expects its gross profit margin to continue expanding after 2025, driven mainly by the growth of its advertising business, especially in the music and podcast sectors, as well as the monetization of the music and podcast market and audiobooks. In addition, the upcoming on-demand services will also contribute to future gross profit margin growth. Regarding the advertising business, Spotify is making adjustments to accelerate its development, including changes in leadership, to address the current situation of progress not meeting expectations, with the goal of speeding up business transformation and improving efficiency.

Discussed the growth of user engagement in areas such as music subscription, video, and audiobooks over the past year, as well as how to monetize this high level of user engagement through means such as converting to premium advertising, raising prices, and single-point purchases. It was also mentioned that audiobook services have been launched in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein, and the first additional subscription service has been released in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Switzerland.

Daniel explained that in the current business environment, Spotify faces a balance between operating costs, especially in terms of manpower and computing resources. He emphasized that the company will not blindly pursue short-term goals, but instead focus on increasing the lifetime value of users, even if it means increasing marketing or technology investments in the short term. He used the example of the ratio of acquisition cost to lifetime value of subscribers in marketing to illustrate that in some cases, even if expenses are increased in the short term, the company will choose to invest if it can bring long-term high returns. At the same time, as the advertising market becomes increasingly programmatic, Spotify may seize the opportunity to increase investment in marketing efficiency in order to achieve long-term business growth.

The conversation discussed Spotify's current business situation, including strong growth in subscription users, increased user engagement, and increased market share globally. In addition, it also explored how the company is developing in accordance with user demands, expanding from music to podcasts and now to video content, particularly emphasizing the importance of video content for the company's advertising growth and adapting to the growth of the digital advertising industry.

In the discussion, Spotify was asked why it couldn't raise prices faster in high user engagement markets like Peacock. Spotify emphasized its focus on user value and price ratio, adopting a subscriber-centric strategy and different pricing strategies in different markets. At the same time, the company emphasized the importance of retaining users for the long term, pointing out that retaining existing users is more cost-effective than acquiring new ones.

Despite facing unit growth and competitive pressure, Spotify emphasizes the importance of its advertising business to its core strategy. The company is undergoing a business transformation for 2025, attracting advertisers through new ad formats and tools, while also accelerating market expansion to address current challenges.

Spotify is revolutionizing its core product experience by utilizing the latest advancements in large language models (LLMs), not only in recommendation and content curation, but also in the way it interacts with users, such as through voice or text conversations with Spotify. The company is completely overhauling its technology stack to adapt to the era of generative AI, by implementing Model Context Protocols (MCPs) to build infrastructure that can automatically respond to user needs. This change allows the product to self-optimize and improve, especially in cases of high user engagement, where AI models' performance will continue to improve with increasing data and usage, bringing Spotify a strategic competitive advantage.
要点回答
Q:What were the main achievements and milestones mentioned in the Q2 earnings call?
A:The Q2 earnings call highlighted strong user growth across both subscribers (subs) and monthly active users (MAUs), with net adds for subs growing more than 30% versus the first half of 2024. A significant milestone was hitting over 100 million subscribers in Europe, the company's largest region, and recording their second highest MAU net additions in Q2. User engagement also continued to strengthen.
Q:What are the challenges and expectations regarding the ads business?
A:The challenge mentioned is that the ads business has not yet met expectations and is moving too slowly, taking longer than anticipated to see improvements from the initiated changes. However, there are promising signs in the programmatic business, which is expected to set the stage for growth in 2026. The strategy remains unchanged, but the execution needs to accelerate to improve the financial contributions of the ads business.
Q:How is the company planning to maintain focus and approach to the business?
A:The company continues to prioritize creating lifetime value rather than focusing on short-term quarterly performance. This approach acknowledges the importance of balancing short-term opportunities with long-term strategic initiatives. Many of the current strong user and subscriber growth initiatives started several quarters or even years ago and the timing of when these efforts yield tangible results can vary. The focus is on creating value over the long haul rather than achieving specific short-term outcomes.
Q:What insights were provided about the global reach and conversion rates?
A:The global reach of Spotify was highlighted, noting that over 3% of the world's population subscribes to the service, which is considered astounding and indicative of significant potential for further growth. In addition, the conversion rate from free to paid users is healthy and continues to increase, showing that the business is successfully converting users even in developed and mature markets.
Q:What strategies are being implemented to enhance the ads business?
A:To accelerate the contributions of the ads business to the company's financials, the strategies include moving faster, recalibrating the business, and focusing on driving adoption of new tools for advertisers, improving inventory performance, and fully monetizing new ad channels. The goal is to create a stronger, more sustainable ads business by enhancing brand operations and automation efforts.
Q:What impact has the multi-format strategy had on user growth and value?
A:The multi-format strategy has been effective in increasing user growth and value. The data shows that the more content formats are available, the more engaged users become. This is particularly true for 'super users' who are increasing their time spent on the platform. In the core business of music (excluding China and Russia), 45% of subscribers pay for a music streaming service, and this percentage has been growing steadily.
Q:How has the integration of video content influenced user engagement?
A:The integration of video content has positively influenced user engagement. With over 430,000 video podcasts on the platform and video consumption growing 20 times faster than audio-only content, more than 350 million users have streamed video podcasts, representing a 65% increase year over year. The data suggests that video continues to outperform and contribute to higher user engagement.
Q:What are the effects of personalization efforts like Spotify DJ on user engagement?
A:Personalization efforts such as Spotify DJ have had a significant impact on user engagement. The feature has seen a nearly double user engagement and a 45% increase in streams globally. User feedback indicates a strong demand for interaction with the DJ, resulting in personalized music experiences and driving millions of interactions.
Q:How has the introduction of generative AI changed the user experience with AI playlists?
A:The introduction of generative AI has transformed the user experience with AI playlists by allowing users to request specific content in plain English, which was previously impossible based on listening data alone. Users can now inform the service of their current mood, activity, or specific requests, leading to more relevant and personalized playlists. This has resulted in a virtuous loop of continuous improvement without additional product development.
Q:What were the key financial results for the second quarter?
A:The key financial results for the second quarter include a growth of 18 million MAUs to 696 million, exceeding guidance by 7 million. There was an addition of 8 million net subscribers, finishing at 276 million, up 12% year on year and 3 million ahead of guidance. Total revenue was 4.2 billion, growing 15% year on year, with currency movements impacting reported revenue by 104 million.
Q:What was the impact of strategic initiatives on the advertising business?
A:Strategic initiatives like the optimization of the license podcast and the rollout of the Spotify Partner program influenced the advertising business, but the exact impact was not quantified as it was mentioned in the context of growth rates rather than specific figures.
Q:What were the profitability figures for the second quarter?
A:Gross margin came in at 31.5%, in line with guidance, and expanded roughly 230 basis points year on year. Operating income was 406 million, which was 133 million below guidance due to social charges from share price appreciation. Free cash flow was 700 million in the quarter year on year.
Q:What is the forecast for the third quarter?
A:The forecast for the third quarter includes 710 million MAUs, an increase of 14 million from the second quarter, and 281 million subscribers, an increase of 5 million over the second quarter. Total revenue is forecasted to be 4.2 billion, incorporating a sizable headwind of approximately 200 million due to unfavorable currency movements. ARP is expected to be flat year on year on a constant currency basis.
Q:What is the guidance for the P&L in the upcoming quarter?
A:The guidance for the upcoming quarter indicates a gross margin of 31.1%, an operating income of 485 million, consistent with previously stated expectations. Free gross margin guidance includes a regulatory charge of 5 basis points, with an expected quarter free gross margin in line with the levels of the first and second quarters. The operating income guidance reflects temporarily elevated expenses in the third quarter due to timing factors.
Q:How does the company plan to manage its liquidity and capital allocation?
A:The company's liquidity is strong and is expecting 2025 to show healthy year-on-year growth in free cash flow. The company continues to prioritize growth opportunities while managing the balance sheet to support the long-term strategy. With respect to capital allocation, the Board has approved an upsizing of the share repurchase authorization to a total of $2 billion, and the company is focusing on being opportunistic in this area.
Q:Can you provide an update on the introduction of tiers or a tier for the platform?
A:The company is excited about engaging superfans and is building something great for them. However, it is important to note that the company's product release standards are high, and there is a cautious approach to ensure these standards are met. The company has worked on features such as an audiobook add-on subscription to address the demand from super fans and enhance access to audiobooks for family plan sub-accounts. The company is focused on building out propositions across music, podcast, and video, driven by strong demand from various superfan segments.
Q:Has there been a change in the guidance philosophy?
A:The company has not changed its guidance philosophy. When providing guidance, the company looks at the certainty in licensing deals, the market, and other factors that can impact margins. The guidance is set for more certainty, and the company aims to calibrate it to ensure it is above or on target, resulting in very little issue with uncertainty in the recent quarter.
Q:How is generative AI influencing productivity, product development, and consumer experience?
A:Generative AI is influencing productivity by significantly speeding up prototyping processes. The company saw this across various departments including finance and others, not just in engineering and product people but also in designers. Product development is changing with the introduction of generative AI, as the evaluation set (eval) is now considered the product requirements document (PRD), which is a fundamental difference from the previous approach that relied on user signals like skips, plays, and saves.
Q:What is the new data set that Spotify is collecting and how will it affect the user experience?
A:Spotify is collecting a new data set on how English sentences correlate to specific songs, which is a novel data set for the company. This will lead to more interactive user experiences and potentially change the dynamics of personalized music recommendations, allowing users to interact with Spotify in a more conversational manner.
Q:How will generative AI technology change user experiences on Spotify?
A:Generative AI technology will expand the interactivity of user experiences on Spotify, making it possible to write to and talk to the platform, which is expected to lead to more personalized and dynamic interactions.
Q:What is the new strategy for capital allocation following the doubled share buyback authorization?
A:Spotify's strategy for capital allocation includes investing in growth opportunities that drive attractive returns while maintaining a balance sheet that supports long-term strategy. The company also plans to use share buybacks as an additional flexible tool, although具体的 usage of this tool will not be disclosed.
Q:What are the projected trends for ARPU in the third quarter and how should it evolve in the fourth quarter?
A:In the third quarter, Spotify expects neutral currency and ARPU trends, with developed markets showing uplifts and emerging markets experiencing short-term dilution. For the fourth quarter, specific comments on ARPU trends are not provided, and the company will offer guidance when the time comes.
Q:What is Spotify's approach to pricing and how does it plan to use a portfolio approach to increase prices?
A:Spotify's approach to pricing is to raise prices when appropriate for the business, taking into consideration a portfolio approach that involves raising prices consistently across different markets. This strategy has been effective for Spotify, as evidenced by price increases in various countries in the last quarter without any异常的用户流失率。
Q:How is Spotify investing in its verticals and what is the potential growth the company is targeting?
A:Spotify is investing in music, video, and books, aiming to leverage its strong engagement in these formats to drive growth. The company is confident in reaching its new subscriber goal of 1 billion subscribers, given its current 45% market share and 65% of all music streams on the platform.
Q:What impact has Apple's alternative payment method had on subscriber growth and the user experience?
A:Alternative payments positively impacted subscriber conversions, particularly in the U.S., resulting in a better user experience. The change allows for direct communication and action within the app, potentially improving customer retention and engagement. It also opens up new revenue opportunities through in-app purchases for new products and features.
Q:How much did the changes to the podcasting business model impact advertising growth in the second quarter?
A:The changes to the podcasting business model had a negative impact on advertising growth in the second quarter. However, the exact extent of this impact and the underlying organic growth, after adjusting for podcasts that are no longer exclusive, are not fully detailed in the provided text.
Q:What is the impact of removing inventory on revenue in the premium landscape?
A:The removal of inventory from parts of the premium landscape around the world is expected to have a significant impact on revenue, although the exact nature of this impact is not detailed in the transcript.
Q:How is the removal of inventory and changes in the program affecting user behavior and outcomes?
A:The removal of inventory and changes in the program are resulting in very good outcomes, such as video consumption growing 20x faster than audio consumption, with 350 million users having watched video on Spotify. Users who watch podcasts consume 1.5x more than users who only listen, indicating positive changes in user behavior.
Q:What is the expected growth for the advertising business in the coming years?
A:The advertising business is expected to contribute to gross margin expansion, with growth drivers including the music and podcast sides of the business, monetization of the marketplace and Spp program in the podcast side, audiobook monetization, and introduction of a la carte offerings.
Q:Why was there a change in leadership for the global head of sales, and what are the strategic reasons behind it?
A:The change in leadership for the global head of sales was made to accelerate the transformation of the advertising business, which was deemed necessary as part of the recalibration of the Spotify ads business. The company wanted to move faster to address the need for greater efficiency and to achieve its strategic vision of welcoming programmatic demand. Lee Brown, who had been with Spotify for six years, left for DoorDash, and his departure was viewed as a leadership change to better align with the company's high expectations across its business.
Q:What engagement metrics can be provided, and how has engagement grown across categories?
A:Spotify has experienced growth across categories such as music subscriptions, video consumption, and audiobooks. They have over 400,000 books in their audiobook catalog and have expanded to new markets in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. Additionally, they have introduced the first add-on subscriptions in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Switzerland, which signifies growth in all mentioned categories.
Q:How is Spotify monetizing its engaged user base, and what are the strategies being considered?
A:Spotify is monetizing its engaged user base through several strategies, including conversion to premium subscriptions, which is already happening as evidenced by the metrics provided. The company is also looking into additional strategies such as a la carte offerings, which are being considered as a means to further monetize the highly engaged base.
Q:What should investors expect regarding future operating expense growth and areas of investment?
A:Investors should not expect Spotify to optimize for reaching an arbitrary goal but instead focus on driving lifetime value metrics. This includes balancing short-term investments with long-term ones and considering whether long-term investments make sense based on their discounted value. When faced with opportunities for greater marketing efficiency, the company may choose to invest more in marketing if it aligns with long-term business growth. The business is in a strong position, and while efficiencies are expected as tools improve, short-term investments may be made to achieve greater long-term returns.
Q:How does the company plan to scale video content, and what is its importance for driving advertising growth?
A:Spotify plans to scale video content by continuing to follow user preferences, as it has done with music, podcasts, and audiobooks. The strategy is to observe what users want and to scale according to those desires. Video content is considered a critical part of the company's efforts to drive advertising growth more in line with the digital ad industry growth rates.
Q:What is the company's stance on the potential for growth through video content?
A:The company views video content as a very exciting opportunity rather than a threat and is excited about pursuing it despite it not being deemed critical for growth.
Q:What is the company's approach to pricing in markets with robust daily engagement?
A:The company takes a portfolio approach to pricing, considering the value and engagement levels in different markets. They have recently raised prices and seen strong retention profiles and will continue to use pricing as a tool when appropriate for the business.
Q:Why does the company prioritize retention over new customer acquisition?
A:At scale, the company prioritizes retention over new customer acquisition because managing retention is crucial for a subscriber-based service, and there is a significant focus on keeping customers for a longer time.
Q:Is the advertising business considered core to Spotify, and how is it performing?
A:The advertising business is considered core to Spotify, and it is experiencing single-digit growth in ad-supported sales on a constant currency basis. The company is transforming the business and seeks to move faster to improve performance.
Q:What factors indicate whether the advertising business is progressing according to plan?
A:The progress of the advertising business is indicated by the adoption from advertisers to the new tools and formats that Spotify has introduced, such as demand-side platforms and direct sales, as well as the performance of these new formats.
Q:How is Spotify leveraging large language models (LLMs) in its core product experience beyond recommendations?
A:Spotify is retooling its company and technology stack for a generative age by integrating APIs and model context protocols. This allows the creation of products by simply writing in English, such as when a user asks a question about a song, and opens up opportunities for self-improving AI models, thanks to the engagement level of its application.

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