RH (RH.US) 2025年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Despite facing a challenging housing market and tariff uncertainties, RH reports a 12% revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a focus on product expansion, global presence through Waterworks integration, and strategic market positioning. The company highlights its financial resilience, strategic collaborations, and plans for international growth, while navigating global trade rebalancing efforts.
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In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, RH experienced a 12% revenue increase, achieving adjusted operating margins and EBITDA at the high end of expectations. The company reported positive free cash flow and significant share gains due to substantial investments in product and platform expansion. Notably, RH England's gallery saw a 47% increase in demand, projecting total demand of 46 million for its second full fiscal year. The success in remote locations and European markets indicates potential for exponential growth in more densely populated areas. Leadership envisions doubling the current business over the next couple of years through identified opportunities.

Despite economic challenges including tariffs, inflation, and global discord, RH is confident in its global brand desirability, planning openings in iconic locations like Paris, London, and Milan. The company emphasizes its narrow focus on product elevation, bespoke interior design services, and profitable restaurant ventures, aiming for strategic separation and long-term growth. With significant assets including real estate and excess inventory, RH forecasts strong free cash flow and reduced capital expenditures, enabling debt reduction and interest expense lowering. The company also plans to increase its membership discount to capture market share during the housing downturn, positioning itself for success when the market recovers.

Despite shifting sourcing away from China due to tariffs and facing global sourcing disruptions, RH maintains its fiscal 2025 guidance while delaying a new concept launch to spring 2026 for more certainty. The company forecasts revenue growth of 10% to 13% and plans to significantly expand its brand and market presence through new collections, galleries, and a focus on product and platform elevation. Key strategies include increasing domestic production, expanding into European markets, and enhancing the customer experience through immersive physical spaces. The summary outlook includes navigating tariff impacts, maintaining financial guidance, and ambitious expansion plans.

The dialogue discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by RH in expanding its brand to Europe, highlighting issues with product availability, execution, and adapting to local market needs. Despite initial hurdles, there's optimism about the brand's disruptive potential and profitability in major European cities like Paris, London, and Madrid, with plans to address specific execution issues to enhance customer experience and market share.

The speaker discusses a strategy involving the monetization of real estate assets through sale leasebacks and outright asset sales, highlighting a $500 million real estate value. They detail plans for developing properties in Aspen, including a unique hospitality experience with a focus on privacy and luxury, and mention ongoing projects in Madrid and Los Angeles. The speaker acknowledges the challenges posed by current interest rates and the timing of investments, emphasizing the potential for long-term value and flexibility in their portfolio.

Facing almost doubled construction costs due to Covid, a company innovates by developing the concept of 'design compounds'. These compounds break down a traditional gallery into 6 to 9 separate buildings, significantly reducing capital costs while maintaining the essence of a gallery experience. Key locations for these compounds include Walnut Creek, Naples, and Miami, with plans for more. This approach not only saves money but also enhances the gallery experience by integrating outdoor spaces and walkways, offering a unique indoor-outdoor experience.

The luxury retail brand discusses its innovative approaches to expanding its presence through transforming existing buildings into design ecosystems, opening new concept stores, and leveraging capital-efficient strategies. Highlighted are successful transformations in Greenwich and Palm Desert, including the incorporation of cafes and design studios, which significantly boost sales and enhance customer experiences.

The retailer discusses a strategic move to increase membership discounts from 25% to 30%, aiming to capture more market share amidst a promotional industry landscape. They highlight the temporary increase to 35% off for outdoor furniture during a peak sales period as a tactic to boost business during a challenging market affected by tariffs and economic noise. The long-term strategy is to maintain the 30% off membership discount, with confidence that it will not compromise the brand's 20-21% EBITDA margins.

The company expresses confidence in improved sales for the second half of 2025, attributing it to factors like delivery timing, new galleries, and current performance, despite acknowledging the unpredictability of the market. Additionally, the core business product margins are reported to have increased year-over-year, with expectations for continued growth.

The company discusses its strategic decision to increase member discounts despite volatile sales, emphasizing its ability to maintain profitability through margin flexibility, strategic pricing, and leveraging its distinctive brand and business model.

Demand significantly exceeded revenue, leading to deferred income into the latter half of the year. The imposition of reciprocal tariffs caused disruptions in the supply chain, halting shipments and manufacturing for several weeks. This chaos led to a backlog in production and shipments, affecting the furniture industry, particularly businesses dealing with special orders. The sudden increase in tariffs to as high as 100% created uncertainty and logistical challenges, impacting both large and small businesses. The dialogue anticipates similar effects on other retailers who have not yet reported their Q2 results, highlighting the widespread implications of these tariff-induced disruptions.

The company discusses its inventory reduction progress, noting a slight sequential decrease, with plans for significant inventory management in the latter half of the year. Additionally, they address the potential for raising capital through convertible markets, contingent on stock price volatility. The dialogue highlights major investments in unique retail stores, European real estate, new gallery concepts, and the development of a restaurant division, showcasing the company's expansive business ventures.

The dialogue discusses the effects of recent disruptions, including tariffs and the short outdoor season, on business performance. It highlights the strategic and tactical decisions made to navigate unpredictable times, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and long-term thinking amidst unusual market conditions.

In June 2025, amidst global political and product turmoil, a discussion highlights the challenges faced by small online businesses due to tariffs and capital-raising difficulties. The speaker emphasizes the importance of strategic flexibility, improvisation, and adaptation, referencing notable companies like Apple and Tesla as examples of those adapting to changing global dynamics. They also underscore the unique positioning and growth potential of their own business, particularly in interior design and hospitality, noting their international presence and long-standing engagement in the contract division.

The discussion highlights the successful integration of Waterworks into RH, emphasizing brand elevation, strong business performance despite challenging market conditions, and plans for global expansion through various strategies including standalone operations and potential licensing or franchise deals.

The dialogue discusses efforts to mitigate the impact of tariffs, particularly focusing on moving product manufacturing out of China and the collaborative strategies employed with long-standing partners. It also touches on the chaotic nature of current tariff policies and predictions for a more predictable operating outlook in global trade over the next few months, highlighting the administration's efforts to rebalance trade and strategic resources.

The dialogue centers around a business's approach to debt and cash flow management, particularly in light of rapidly increasing interest rates and changing tariff dynamics. The company discusses its current debt ratio, interest payments, and profitability, noting efforts to deleverage through natural EBITDA growth. No specific debt targets are mentioned, highlighting a focus on adjusting to market conditions without fixed financial metrics.

The session concludes with appreciation for the team's dedication to embodying core values, striving to elevate the brand's status among the world's most admired. The focus is on continuous progress towards achieving top recognition in the global market.
要点回答
Q:What is the anticipated growth for RH's second full fiscal year?
A:For the second full fiscal year, RH expects the gallery in the English countryside to reach approximately 37 to 39 million demand, with online demand projected to be around 8 million. The company believes an RH gallery in a prime location like the center of Mayfair, London, could potentially generate exponentially more demand.
Q:How is the business performing in Europe and what are the recent developments?
A:The business in Europe is accelerating with demand growth of 60% in the first quarter across two comparable galleries, RH Munich and our hcss door, as well as continued demand acceleration in non-economic galleries, RH Brussels and RH Madrid. The leadership team visited these galleries and identified opportunities to double the current business over the next few years.
Q:What are the details regarding the upcoming opening of RH Paris?
A:RH Paris is located on a famous Parisian boulevard off the Avenue Montaigne, and it will be the most elegant and inspiring gallery yet, with gold gilded gates, a beautifully landscaped garden, and a RH interior design studio. The gallery will feature an atrium with an ornate railing, scissor stairs, and a glass elevator, and offer dining at Le Jardins RH on the second floor. It is set to open in early September to coincide with a premier interior design show in Europe.
Q:How is RH navigating the current economic climate and what are their expectations?
A:RH is maintaining its guidance for fiscal 2025 despite the challenges in the economic climate caused by tariffs, market volatility, inflation risk, and global discord. The company is confident in its ability to continue making necessary investments for industry-leading growth while reducing debt and interest expense. They are projecting adjusted EBITDA margins north of 20%, significant free cash flow, and positive cash flow from operations in the coming years.
Q:What strategic moves is RH making to enhance its brand and operations?
A:RH is focusing on creating the most desired products in the most inspiring spaces with bespoke interior design services and restaurants that generate awareness and profitability. They are investing in iconic global retail locations, building a global hospitality company with multiple concepts, and creating a global bespoke interior design business. Additionally, they are expanding their contract and hospitality business and are committed to continuing their aggressive market share strategy.
Q:What is the impact of tariffs and the macroeconomic environment on RH?
A:The impact of tariffs and the macroeconomic environment is reflected in a decrease in revenue receipts from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4, with a meaningful portion of the tariffs absorbed by vendor partners. The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, operating a factory in North Carolina, and expects 52% of bolstered furniture production in the United States and 21% in Italy by the end of 2025.
Q:What is the revised forecast for the second quarter and full fiscal year 2025?
A:The revised forecast for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 includes revenue growth of 8-10%, adjusted operating margin of 15-16%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.5-21.5%. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company is forecasting revenue growth of 10-13%, adjusted operating margin of 14-15%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 20-21%, and free cash flow of 250-350 million. The guidance reflects an approximate negative 180 basis point operating margin impact from investments and start-up costs for international expansion.
Q:What are the updates on the company's product elevation and expansion plans for 2025?
A:The company's product elevation and expansion plans for 2025 include the distribution of the 2025 RH Outdoor South Sourcebook in February, featuring new collections and improved in-stock positions. They experienced a slowdown due to tariffs and market promotions but responded with increased membership discounts. New source books for RH Interiors and RH Modern were also released, introducing new collections and design aesthetics. The company is delaying a significant brand extension previously planned for Fall 2025 until Spring 2026, which will include new source books and free-standing galleries in San Francisco, West Hollywood, and Greenwich, Connecticut.
Q:What are the plans for global expansion and new market addressing?
A:The company plans to expand the RH brand globally, addressing new markets locally and transforming North American galleries. They aim to open seven design galleries in Oklahoma City and Montreal in the second quarter, with additional galleries planned for Paris, Detroit, Manhattan, San Diego, and Palm Desert in the second half. The company also plans to enhance its presence in East Hampton by opening an Arch Outdoor gallery and is exploring plans for a new concept gallery in the near future.
Q:What are the company's expectations for business growth in Europe?
A:The company expects an inflection in their business in Europe, starting with brand building in Paris in 2025, followed by London and Milan in 2026, all featuring dramatic and brand-building hospitality experiences. They anticipate scale in each location to support necessary advertising investments to accelerate growth. The company plans to accelerate their platform expansion strategy with 7 to 9 new galleries and 2 to 3 design studios or outdoor galleries per year.
Q:How does the company view the transformation of their business and leadership philosophy?
A:The company views their transformation from a nearly bankrupt business to a leading home brand as a journey driven by lessons learned through challenges and victories. They are inspired by progressive thinkers who push new ideas and fresh perspectives, emphasizing leadership over fellowship, innovation over duplication, and enlightenment over ego. They believe in collective intelligence over individual egos, and in striving for excellence even when it causes discomfort.
Q:What lessons have been learned from transforming the store in Miami and applying them to other markets?
A:The lessons learned from transforming a money-losing store in Miami into one that generates $44 million annually and then into a $100 million+ design compound include the importance of executing the business model correctly, understanding customer needs, and leveraging data for merchandising decisions. The company has applied these lessons to other markets, such as focusing on in-stock availability, optimizing special orders, and improving the product mix to ensure success across various regions.
Q:What are the strategic priorities for opening new galleries in Europe and how does the company anticipate their impact?
A:The strategic priorities for opening new galleries in Europe include focusing on execution and being in stock, optimizing special orders, and improving product assortment. The company anticipates that these improvements could double their business. They are excited about the opportunities in Europe, as evidenced by the positive buzz around their London location and the potential to drive four-wall profitability and strong cash contributions. The company is also energized by the prospect of these new locations significantly impacting the brand's presence and recognition in the markets.
Q:What are the strategies being used to manage interest costs and leasebacks?
A:The strategy includes determining the rent and tax implications of sale leasebacks, as well as the long-term profitability streams, to balance the timing of leasebacks with the cost of interest.
Q:What new developments are planned for the Aspen property?
A:A new three-level experience named the R Mountain House is being built, featuring a three-story atrium, a restaurant on the rooftop, and an incredible guesthouse location. The development is expected to be completed and open for guests.
Q:How is the new Aspen development expected to impact the hospitality experience?
A:The new Aspen development is expected to offer a unique hospitality experience with a focus on privacy and luxury, in contrast to other places like New York. It is anticipated to be the best hospitality experience, with features such as a restaurant, a campaign, a caviar bar, and potentially a bathhouse and spa.
Q:What challenges are mentioned in building in Aspen?
A:The speaker refers to building in Aspen as harder than building on the moon, indicating political and other difficulties encountered in the process. However, they also mention that despite the challenges, they anticipate the guesthouse to be a tremendous success based on the positive word of mouth about the current guesthouse.
Q:What new business ventures are being considered or pursued?
A:New business ventures include a possible second building in Madrid, a freestanding 30,000 square foot gallery in Melrose, and a 15,000 square foot outdoor modern gallery. There is also an option to further expand the ecosystem in Aspen and to monetize assets when the time is right.
Q:How is the real estate development business currently being affected by interest rates?
A:The real estate development business is facing challenges due to high interest rates, which makes it more difficult and costly to build. Despite this, the speaker emphasizes the value of their assets, the momentum of the business, and the cash flow potential as important factors to consider.
Q:What cost considerations are made regarding building new galleries post-Covid?
A:The cost of building new galleries has almost doubled post-Covid, making the economic model for such projects less attractive. To address this, the company has developed a concept called the 'design compound,' which involves breaking a gallery into multiple buildings to reduce costs.
Q:What innovative design concept has been developed to address the high costs of building new galleries?
A:The innovative design concept developed to address high costs is called the 'design compound.' It involves breaking a gallery into 6 to 9 separate buildings and connecting them with gardens, providing an indoor-outdoor experience and potentially reducing costs by half.
Q:How is the design ecosystem concept being implemented in different locations?
A:The design ecosystem concept is being implemented by transforming existing buildings and modifying them for new retail concepts. For example, in Greenwich, Connecticut, a historic post office building is being transformed to support a new concept, and other buildings are being repurposed to create unique retail experiences.
Q:What is the purpose of the new design office in Palm Desert?
A:The purpose of the new design office in Palm Desert is to provide a space for design clients and to showcase a curated selection of furniture and decor. The office is designed to be aspirational and is already achieving significant revenue, demonstrating the viability of the concept.
Q:What are the strategies being used by the company to access markets more quickly?
A:The company is using various strategies to access markets quickly, including design compounds, design ecosystems, design studios, and design concept stores. They can transform existing buildings with lower capital requirements and have many projects in the pipeline. They plan to accelerate their store openings to 7 to 9 per year.
Q:How will the planned sale impact the assessment of newness in the business?
A:The planned sale does not prevent the assessment of newness in the business. The company has observed a spike in demand for the sale, which allows them to gauge the underlying strength of new offerings. They have also considered taking membership from 25% to 30% over the next five years as part of their long-term strategic move.
Q:What is the company's strategy regarding membership and pricing?
A:The company's strategy is to increase the value to their members by expanding the membership from 25% to 30% over five years. They are considering this long-term strategic move to feel more compelling in a promotional market, as they are a market leader and others try to catch up. The company does not sell furniture at regular price globally, with most offering discounts of 20% to 40%.
Q:What was the reason for offering a significant discount on outdoor furniture?
A:The reason for offering a significant discount on outdoor furniture was to capture more market share during the outdoor business peak season, which spans from March to June. This discount was a strategic move to increase sales and market share amidst a difficult market and volatile business conditions.
Q:What factors contribute to the confidence in the second half sales improvement?
A:Factors contributing to the confidence in second half sales improvement include the company's expertise and past performance, what they have in the pipeline, the number of new galleries they're opening, and their experience with the unpredictable market. However, they acknowledge that the market is the most unpredictable they've seen in their careers.
Q:What was the performance of product margins in the quarter and for the full year?
A:The company's core business product margins were up year over year, whereas some other businesses saw slight declines. The most important part of the story is that core business margins are up year over year and are expected to continue improving. The company does not typically comment on quarter-over-quarter trends but emphasizes the year-over-year improvement.
Q:How has the EBITDA margin guidance been maintained despite the recent decision to increase discounts?
A:The EBITDA margin guidance has been maintained despite increased discounts due to the company's strategic decision and long-standing optionality. They have been thinking about this for five years and believe it is a good time to take market share. They have also been tweaking their model to build a better brand and business. Price changes are typically made at the beginning of the year, and they react to tariffs appropriately. Their distinctive brand and gallery model make them more valuable, leading to better pricing and profitability.
Q:What is the impact of deferred revenue from the second quarter on the company's financials?
A:The deferred revenue from the second quarter will be delivered later in the year due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs, which caused disruption in the supply chain. The demand was much higher than revenues, leading to a deferral in shipping. The exact impact on financials is not clear, but it is stated that the company anticipates seeing similar effects in other retailers that have not yet reported.
Q:What challenges are small businesses facing during the current market disruptions?
A:Small businesses are facing devastating effects due to lack of flexibility during the market disruptions.
Q:How much inventory was worked through in the first quarter and how does this impact full-year free cash flow generation?
A:The inventory was down year over year and slightly sequentially, but the larger reduction is expected to happen in the second half of the year. The first quarter's free cash flow generation of the mid 30 million range is not directly bridged to the full-year as the inventory reduction impact on full-year free cash flow is not specified.
Q:Is the company considering raising capital, and under what circumstances?
A:The company does not have immediate plans to raise capital but may consider it opportunistically, especially if the stock price improves, allowing for easier monetization of the company's volatile stock through zero-coupon convertibles.
Q:What major investments and new concepts has the company made recently?
A:The company has made investments in opening retail stores, with plans for expansion, real estate moves, important art gallery acquisitions, and new concept launches. It has also developed a restaurant company with 22 restaurants currently and plans to open up to 30 restaurants.
Q:How does the company's restaurant business compare to others, and what recent accolades have been received?
A:The company's restaurant business is distinguished, with one of its restaurants named "Restaurant of the Year in Orange County" and a location in Newport Beach noted for its high quality. The company has also trended towards a revenue of 22 million with a 270-seat restaurant.
Q:What was the impact of the timing of the outdoor season and the disruption caused by tariffs?
A:The outdoor season is short, and missing its peak due to disruptions and tariffs makes it challenging to recover. The company made a strategic decision to align with the timing of the season despite potential lower margins, positioning itself for future growth when the tariffs and disruptions ease.
Q:How is the company adapting to the current economic and political environment?
A:The company is adapting by being flexible, tactical, and strategic in decision-making, avoiding common pitfalls in uncertain times, and focusing on positioning itself well for future growth. It is also dealing with the financial implications of debt and interest rate increases.
Q:Is the company exploring any different strategies compared to other companies facing similar challenges?
A:The company is focusing on long-term strategic and flexible decisions, as opposed to trying to adhere to usual practices in an unusual situation. It is also improving its competitive position and market share for future growth.
Q:What makes the company's platform and investments unique in the market?
A:The company's platform is unique due to its diverse product assortment, profit center restaurant concept, and large interior design business. The investments are considered unconventional but strategic, with potential for significant upside in a changing market.
Q:How is the company's contract and hospitality business performing internationally?
A:The company has a long-standing presence in the contract and hospitality business internationally, with a track record of selling to international contract divisions and customers before consumers. The performance internationally follows the strength of the core business, and the company has been selling internationally in the contract division for many years.
Q:How have the businesses of the speaker's company and their partner, Peter and Ralph, grown?
A:The businesses have grown significantly, doubling in size, with an increase in EBITDA from 2% to 16% in the given year.
Q:What is the brand association the speaker is referring to and why is it valuable?
A:The brand association the speaker refers to is with Waterworks, a brand in the bathroom and kitchen area considered the 'jewelry of the house.' The speaker loves the association and believes it adds value to their brand.
Q:What are the current efforts towards integrating the two companies' offerings?
A:The speaker mentions testing integration efforts, such as opening a Waterworks shop in Newport Beach, which has been operational for about six months, and they are learning and adapting based on customer reactions.
Q:What are the plans for expanding the reach of the RH and Waterworks brands?
A:The plans for expanding the reach include a potential global assault over the next ten years through self-implementation, licensing, or franchise deals for more efficient and capital-effective growth.
Q:How is the speaker addressing the challenges of tariffs and their impact on the business?
A:The speaker indicates that they are collaborating with partners and are dealing with the challenges of tariffs in a way that is not well understood by competitors due to confidential information and complex global dynamics. They expect the situation to become more predictable in the near future.
Q:Are there any specific financial targets or coverage metrics the company is focusing on?
A:The company does not have specific financial targets or coverage metrics and does not discuss its balance sheet or income statement in detail due to the competitive nature of the market. However, they emphasize their focus on maintaining a healthy debt ratio and profitability despite challenges like rising interest rates.

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