牛津工业 (OXM.US) 2025财年第一季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Despite challenging market conditions, Oxford Industries reported Q1 results within forecasts, driven by innovative products and promotions. The company faces significant hurdles from evolving US trade policy and tariffs, mitigating impacts through supply chain diversification. Notably, the Lily Pulitzer brand saw double-digit growth, while Tommy Bahama's focus on core customer products contributed to performance. Oxford is addressing profitability issues with Johnny Was and expects to exceed milestones for reducing tariff reliance, aiming for full mitigation by the next spring. Full-year net sales are forecasted to decline slightly.
会议速览

The call begins with a reminder about forward-looking statements and discusses non-GAAP financial measures, followed by an introduction of the participants. The speaker emphasizes the risks associated with forward-looking statements and directs listeners to the company's press release and SEC filings for further details.

Despite facing unpredictable market conditions and the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment, the company experienced a quarter within its forecast range. Consumers respond best to new, innovative products and promotions with high perceived value. The rapidly evolving tariff policy complicates planning and forecasting, necessitating significant realignment of the supply chain. Amidst these challenges, the company emphasizes its commitment to evoke happiness in customers through its portfolio of 'happy brands', focusing on optimistic brand positioning, products, and experiences. The approach, tested during the pandemic, ensures resilience and strength post-challenging times.

The focus on consumer happiness led to significant growth and profitability improvements for the Lily Pulitzer brand, marked by double-digit growth and positive comps in both e-commerce and retail. Key successes included a balanced selection of prints, popular sportswear items, the reintroduction of Lily Men's, and a successful collaboration with Saint James. Marketing efforts, including the Palm Beach fashion show, further enhanced brand excitement. Tommy Bahama expanded its presence with new Marlin Bar locations in Charlotte and King of Prussia, aiming to provide immersive brand experiences and expecting uplift in retail business.

The enterprise discusses its ongoing adaptation to rapidly changing US trade policies, particularly tariffs, emphasizing successful historical responses to policy shifts like NAFTA and China's WTO accession. It highlights progress in diversifying the supply chain away from China, managing tariff impacts on pricing and gross margins, and addressing profitability challenges in the Johnny Was business through strategic focus and external expertise. Additionally, the company updates on the development of a new fulfillment center in South Georgia, anticipating competitive advantages in key markets.

Despite facing significant uncertainties and challenges in the rapidly evolving tariff and trade environment, the company delivered sales and profits within previously issued guidance ranges. Consolidated net sales reached Lyr million, with e-commerce sales decreasing and wholesale channel sales increasing. Adjusted gross margin contracted due to increased freight expenses, markdowns, and changes in sales mix. Adjusted operating profit was 39 million, reflecting investments in a challenging consumer and macro environment. Inventory increased due to US tariff impacts, and cash flows from operations were driven primarily by lower net earnings and changes in working capital needs.

The company provides an updated outlook for the fiscal year 2025, noting a negative comp sales trend continuing into the second quarter, with expectations for a slight moderation in the second half. Net sales are projected to decline slightly compared to the previous fiscal year, with a total company comp sales decline in the low to mid single digit range. The guidance accounts for the impacts of tariffs, increased interest expenses, and a higher tax rate, leading to an adjusted EPS estimate between $2.80 and $3.20. Capital expenditures are expected to remain around $120 million for the year.

The company discusses ongoing capital expenditures for a distribution center in Lions, Georgia, and new store openings across various brands, expecting elevated spending to moderate post-project completion. Strong operational cash flows are anticipated to finance investments, quarterly dividends, and address outstanding borrowings, despite expecting to remain in debt due to share repurchases, dividend payments, and capital expenditures.

On June 12, 2025, participants are instructed to press star 100 to join the question queue during a conference; the first query comes from a representative of Key Bank Capital Markets.

The discussion highlights the importance of focusing on the most committed customers to sustain brand momentum, emphasizing the delivery of products consistent with brand DNA while remaining relevant. It also addresses the challenges of navigating margin headwinds and potential price increases to offset higher costs, including the impact of tariffs, across various brands.

The company discusses its plan for the spring season, aiming to increase earnings with less than a one percent rise in Aur, maintaining gross profit dollars despite a slight dip in initial margin. The team anticipates potential margin dilution due to promotional activities but notes it's too early to predict specifics for the upcoming year. Additional promotions are expected for the remainder of the current year, with modest price increases seen for the fall and full mitigation strategies for the next spring season.

The company reports 4% growth in wholesale, performing well against competitors on the floor of a major department store customer. Expectations for the second half of the year include a slight decline due to conservative spring order books, with specialty stores experiencing more significant challenges than department stores.

The discussion highlights the positive reception of new assortments at Lily, particularly in sportswear and prints, and notes increased customer interest during promotional periods at Tommy. It also addresses the challenges and strategies being implemented to address the mid-teens decline at Johnny, emphasizing cautious projections for the brand's performance in the upcoming quarters.

The company discusses the significant increase in tariff impacts on their operations, notably higher than previously discussed. They detail the gross impact considered and clarify the net effect, acknowledging the challenge of mitigating these effects during peak seasons. Plans for reducing reliance on China and major operational shifts for the upcoming seasons are outlined, aiming to alleviate the financial strain caused by tariffs.

April proved to be the strongest sales month, attributed partly to the Easter shift, with both retail and e-commerce experiencing gains. Despite overall business being down, the restaurant sector saw nearly flat comps, influenced by rising ticket sizes due to increased item prices. Notably, the Sarasota over restaurant's relocation caused a temporary absence during the busy season, impacting comparisons.

The business experienced a low point in February, showed improvement in March, and reached its best performance in April, as of June 12, 2025.

The conference concludes with expressions of gratitude, anticipation for the next meeting in September, and well-wishes for a pleasant summer to all participants.
要点回答
Q:What is the effect of the rapidly evolving US international trade policy, particularly with regard to tariffs?
A:The rapidly evolving US international trade policy, especially tariffs, is challenging Oxford Industries in several ways: it is exacerbating weak consumer sentiment due to consumer concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices and the economy, making it difficult to plan and forecast the business due to the rapid evolution of the policy, and requiring the company to significantly realign its supply chain, which presents short-term challenges and financial ramifications.
Q:How is the company focusing on happiness and optimism during challenging market conditions?
A:The company is focusing on happiness and optimism by continuing to deliver happiness through its brand positioning, products, messaging, and customer experiences. This strategy helps mitigate the impact of challenging market conditions and ensures that the company will emerge stronger as those conditions improve. This focus on happiness was particularly evident during the pandemic when the company chose not to adopt a more pessimistic brand messaging and instead emerged even stronger.
Q:What highlights are included in the company's first quarter results, particularly in the Lily Pulitzer brand?
A:The highlights of the first quarter for the Lily Pulitzer brand include double-digit growth with positive comparable sales in both e-commerce and retail, meaningful growth in average order size, and improved profitability. Notable successes were the brand's prints, sportswear items like the rossen top, the reintroduction of Lilly Men's products, and a collaboration with the French brand Saint James. Additionally, the brand's newness percentage was excellent, and marketing efforts drove excitement with the Palm Beach fashion event and the opening of new retail locations.
Q:How is the company adapting to the immediate challenges posed by changing trade policies?
A:The company is adapting to the immediate challenges posed by changing trade policies by working hard to respond to these challenges, with a focus on supply chain resilience. It is making excellent progress on diversifying its supply chain, particularly away from China, and is on track to exceed the milestones set in its strategy. The company's ability to adapt to change is a strength, as evidenced by its successful past responses to significant changes in trade policy.
Q:What is the projected impact of tariffs on Tommy Bahama's gross margin?
A:Tommy Bahama is projecting a less than Ed full recovery of gross margin dollars and a decrease in initial gross margin percent by less than Ed basis points due to tariffs. However, they expect to work initial gross margin percentages back up without any dramatic changes in pricing in subsequent seasons.
Q:What are the steps being taken to improve the profitability of the Johnny Was business?
A:To improve the profitability of Johnny Was, the company is focusing on increasing profitability to a level similar to Tommy Bahama's, after a period of rapid growth. This includes strategic shifts in brand creative merchandising, assortment and planning, marketing efficiency, and retail execution. The company has also brought in additional talent and external resources for this project.
Q:What is the expected completion status of the new state of the art fulfillment center in South Georgia?
A:The new state of the art fulfillment center in South Georgia is on track and is expected to be completed at the end of the fiscal year. Once complete, the center will serve as a competitive advantage, especially in the southeastern United States including Florida.
Q:How did the company manage to deliver top and bottom line results despite the challenges in the first quarter?
A:Despite facing unprecedented uncertainty and challenges related to the rapidly developing tariff and trade environment, the company's team focused on what they could control and delivered top and bottom line results within the previously issued guidance ranges.
Q:What was the impact of the trade tariffs on the company's financial results?
A:The implementation of US tariffs on imported goods in the first quarter of fiscal year Ed led to an approximate Ed basis point negative impact to consolidated gross margin and an additional script cents per share in cost of goods sold. This resulted in higher costs and additional charges impacting the company's financial results.
Q:What were the main components contributing to the decrease in adjusted operating income?
A:The decrease in adjusted operating income reflects the impact of the company's investments in a challenging consumer and macro environment.
Q:What were the significant components of the company's balance sheet as of the end of the first quarter?
A:On the balance sheet, inventory increased MP or script on a LIFO basis and $20 million or script on a FIFO basis. Long-term debt was script million dollars, and the company used script million in cash flows from operations. Additionally, there were Lyme dollars of share repurchases, capital expenditures of 23 million primarily related to the new distribution center project, and ed million dollars of dividends.
Q:What is the updated outlook for net sales and full year comp sales?
A:The updated outlook for the full year includes net sales between $4.4 and $4.6 billion, reflecting a decline of 1% to just slightly negative compared to sales of $4.6 billion in fiscal 2024. The full year now expects a total company comp sales decline in the low to mid single-digit range.
Q:How is the company anticipating sales, gross margin, and store growth?
A:The company anticipates sales to decrease by a low to mid-single-digit percentage, with e-commerce and wholesale sales down by a low single-digit to flat, and full price retail and outlet sales up by a flat to low single-digit increase. New store locations are expected to contribute to this dynamic, with around 50 net new locations added during the year. The food and beverage channel is expected to grow by a low to mid-single-digit increase due to new location additions.
Q:What impact are tariffs having on the company's financials?
A:Tariffs have led to a gross margin contraction of approximately 100 basis points for the year, with an additional $100 million in tariffs costs or $1.00 per share after tax. The updated guidance includes the assumption of the current and implemented additional script-level tariffs on Chinese imports in China, with other countries remaining as per the March forecast.
Q:What are the updated expectations for SGA (selling, general, and administrative) and operating income?
A:SGA is expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range, primarily due to continued investments in the business, including from new locations added during fiscal 2024. Operating income is expected to be lower, with unfavorable non-operating items such as higher interest expenses and a higher tax rate. Lower royalties and other income are also anticipated.
Q:What are the updated financial expectations for fiscal 2025, including adjusted EPS and tax rate?
A:For fiscal 2025, adjusted EPS is expected to be between $2.20 to $3.20 per share, which is lower than the adjusted EPS of $6.68 cents last year. The higher adjusted effective tax rate is anticipated to be approximately 26%, compared to 20.9% in 2024, impacting the EPS by about 24 to 34 cents per share.
Q:How is the company projecting sales, gross margin, and adjusted EPS for the second quarter?
A:In the second quarter, sales are expected to be $235 million to $250 million, reflecting a low single-digit negative comp assumption, offset by the addition of non-comp stores and relatively flat wholesale sales. Gross margin is expected to contract by approximately 10 basis points, incorporating updated tariff assumptions. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow between $1.15 to $1.17 per share, compared to $2.77 cents in the second quarter of 2024.
Q:What is the company's outlook on capital expenditures (CapEx) for the remainder of the year?
A:The company's outlook on capital expenditures for the remainder of the year is materially consistent with prior guidance, with an expectation of approximately $120 million, including $23 million incurred during the first quarter. Planned expenditures include the ongoing distribution center in Georgia, new store openings, and the Marlin bars, among other projects.
Q:What is the strategy for focusing on the most committed customers and how is it paying off for the company?
A:The strategy for focusing on the most committed customers involves concentrating on the top 20% of the customer base, who account for more than 60% of sales and even more profitability. This focus is paying off as the company celebrates its tenth anniversary, with successful special capsules and marketing efforts that built up through the year.
Q:What is the plan for pricing and promotions at the other identified brands in response to margin headwinds and tariffs?
A:The plan for pricing and promotions at other identified brands involves a strategy where, for example at Tommy Bahama, prices are going up by less than the cost, but maintaining the same gross profit dollars. As for margin dilution due to promotional activity, it is too early to predict, but the company has baked in additional promotions for the remainder of the year.
Q:How did the performance at wholesale compare to expectations and how is it tracking for the full year?
A:The performance at wholesale has been quite good, and the company is pleased with its results. It has held its own in a tough environment against big department store customers and is performing well in head-to-head competition with other strong brands. The wholesale channel is tracking to expectations with a slight down for the full year from the previous year's performance, but there is a modest up trend from the first quarter.
Q:What is the impact of newness in the assortment at Tommy Bahama and how is it performing?
A:Newness in the assortment at Tommy Bahama is working well and is a big part of the brand's success. The company has made significant progress in terms of newness quotient, which was higher than expected. The assortment was particularly strong in sportswear items and print assortment, and newness is visible across the brand's products.
Q:What are the reasons behind the mid-teens decline in the first quarter at the Johnny Was brand and what gives confidence in the brand's outlook for the remainder of the year?
A:The mid-teens decline in the first quarter at the Johnny Was brand was not anticipated to rebound significantly going forward. The brand is working on various plans that could impact performance, but none are expected to have a substantial effect in the current quarter or the next. The brand is focusing on other measures to improve performance.
Q:How is the company dealing with the impact of tariffs on operations and what mitigation strategies are being considered?
A:The company is dealing with the impact of tariffs by implementing mitigation actions. While it's not possible to affect the spring, summer, and early fall delivery periods, adjustments are being made for later deliveries and the next year's resort season. The company is also considering the impact of potential changes in China's treatment of script goods. Some mitigation strategies are already in place, and others are being planned for the resort season.
Q:How did the comp sales trend in February versus March and April, and what is the status of the restaurant business?
A:April had the strongest performance for the company in terms of comp sales, with both retail and e-commerce doing well. The restaurant business was down overall, but the comp was only down slightly, making it comparable to the previous year. Traffic numbers were not provided, but ticket sizes have been increasing due to higher item prices. The Sarasota restaurant was closed last year during the busy season but is expected to open late in the summer.
Q:What was the trend in comp sales for March and April combined, and how does this period affect the business?
A:The improvement in sales was sequential through the quarter, with April being the best month, followed by March, and February being the worst. This indicates a strengthening trend in the business over time.

Oxford Industries, Inc.
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