A：In the first quarter, gold movements were influenced by a shift in the tone of global central bank easing, with liquidity expansion pushing up gold prices. After the second quarter, the market focus turned to monetary policy itself and the real interest rate framework, and the correlation between gold and real interest rates gradually recovered. The arrival of the new Fed chairman Warsh and his change in forward-looking guidance have shifted market sentiment from concerns about easing to concerns about the Fed's independence. The second quarter was overlaid with local liquidity problems caused by the U. S.-Iran conflict, putting pressure on gold. However, after entering July, market expectations and the Fed's statement appeared to swing back, and the performance of the US job market was soft, which slowed the market's expectations of interest rate hikes, which promoted a sharp rise in gold.

A：Warsh's new policy stance is relatively vague, emphasizing data-oriented rather than forward-looking path judgment, which has led to repeated swings in market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Beginning in the second quarter of this year, the market no longer expects a further interest rate cut cycle during the year, and instead focuses on whether to enter an interest rate hike cycle. The latest situation is that as oil prices rise and US inflation data exceed expectations, market expectations for the Fed to maintain stability and independence are challenged. At present, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September is close to 90%, and the market expects to raise interest rates about three times in the next year, indicating that the market has expected and priced interest rate hikes and monetary policy tightening.

A：The non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, with a substantial increase in the number of jobs added, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains robust. Although the non-agricultural data has caused a certain suppression effect on the price of gold, given that the market has priced the possibility of the Fed's interest rate hike in advance, the current gold price adjustment has actually reflected the expectation of future interest rate hikes to a certain extent. Therefore, even with strong non-farm payroll data, gold prices did not experience a panic-driven plunge; instead, they reflected the market’s growing acceptance and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy.

A：The importance of non-farm payrolls and inflation data for the Fed is that they reveal the pace of monetary policy landing. The market is more concerned about marginal changes in data to speculate on the Fed's policy intentions, rather than the impact of employment and inflation itself. For example, after the non-agricultural data fell more than expected in July, the data rebounded sharply than expected in August. This kind of reverse adjustment is relatively rare in history, indicating that the improvement in employment data may affect the need for easing policies, which will affect the gold market. Has an adverse impact.

A：Usually, geopolitical conflicts, especially war events led by the United States, will benefit gold prices. However, in the second quarter, the price of gold for a number of reasons there was a sharp retreat. On the one hand, deleveraging and crowded trading in the first quarter led to a shortage of incremental funds in the market; on the other hand, local dollar liquidity shocks from energy price disruptions made some countries prioritize access to dollar assets rather than increasing their gold allocations. In addition, rising oil prices have led to restrictions on oil purchases by countries, further affecting demand for gold. However, in the long run, the central bank's purchases of gold have not changed, but short-term liquidity demands and geo-event drivers have created a special market.

A：The central bank's purchase of gold is not based on short-term price fluctuations, but on the long-term perspective of foreign exchange reserve mix, exchange rate stability and financial market stability. Although the imbalance between supply and demand in some areas once led to the fall of gold price, it also proved that gold can be effectively converted into US dollars and provide liquidity protection in extreme cases. This has provided a demonstration effect for other central banks, prompting more countries to strengthen the position of gold in foreign exchange reserves and increase purchases, making gold an effective tool to avoid their fiscal cliffs and liquidity risks.

A：The core contradiction in the current gold market is mainly the landing of Fed policy, especially the tug-of-war between rising interest rate expectations and central bank purchases and geo-risk support. The Fed needs to make a trade-off decision between inflationary pressures and global economic conditions, while also considering the impact of its own balance sheet and the supply and demand situation in the global crude oil market.

A：The Fed's recent interest rate hike will be the core focus. If interest rate hikes are dovish, taking temporary measures only in response to market expectations of Fed inaction, and not providing protection for successive rate hikes, the suppression of gold will be short-lived. On the contrary, if the Fed does not raise interest rates as expected or release hawkish signals and continue to tighten policy, gold will usher in a clear upward trend, because it will question the independence of the Fed, the stability of the US fiscal system and the dollar system.

A：This is because the Fed's policy objectives include the job market and the inflation market, and inflation data is highly concerned about the cost of living and economic conditions. When inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed may need to tighten more aggressively, thereby depressing gold prices; conversely, lower-than-expected inflation may prompt the Fed to maintain or ease easing policies to support gold prices.

A：From a technical point of view, the price of gold is currently fluctuating around 4300 to 4400 US dollars per ounce, which is a correction to the overly pessimistic mood in July. After July, with the macro policy shift to expectations and technical breakthroughs, global gold ETFs and futures funds flowed in, forming a certain technical catch-up behavior. But the fundamentals still reflect the market's pessimistic outlook for future tightening and unfavorable conditions for gold.

A：In the long run, the trend of gold is not a big problem, especially in the context of the global game, its long-term trend remains stable. However, the rest of the year is likely to remain suspended and wait for data to cushion. If oil prices do not go down next year and inflation continues, there may be a series of interest rate hikes, which is not good for gold. Therefore, it is very important to grasp the fourth quarter market, and the first quarter of next year needs to be judged according to new events and changes in the policy path.

A：The core factor in the long-term allocation of gold is its excellent earnings performance, with an annualized compound return of more than 10% over the past 15, 20 and even 25 years, outperforming in asset classes. Gold, because of its financial attributes (e. g., pricing, commodity and monetary attributes), has a more stable growth trend and long-term allocation value against the backdrop of expanding global monetary balance sheets and liquidity.

A：Since 2018, there has been a marked decline in the exploration and discovery of new gold sources around the world, while mining costs have risen. This has led to a rise in global gold mining costs, with gold entering the middle stage of the bull market in 2024 and 2025, with the price center rising to more than $2,000 to $3000. However, the profitability of the head gold mining company is not obvious, mainly due to the decline in the cost and grade of new source exploration, as well as the increase in supply shortages. In addition, in addition to traditional jewelry consumption, more and more investors realize its long-term value preservation value, which increases the investment demand of financial attributes and further promotes the rise of gold price.

A：The current volatility of gold investment has increased, with annualized volatility increasing from 15% to about 25% now, making it more difficult to hold gold than in the previous two years. However, from a long-term perspective, gold assets still have a high allocation value. Gold ETFs and feeder funds have the characteristics of convenient participation and low threshold. They can not only participate through small investments (such as ten yuan starting purchase), but also have low holding costs and rates. For example, ETF feeder funds usually have no subscription fees and only charge a certain fee when they are held for more than seven days. In addition, gold ETFs and linked funds have clear tracking and small tracking errors, making them suitable for short-term trading and long-term allocation.

A：When the market's enthusiasm for gold is high, investors should remain vigilant. At present, although there is a certain safety cushion, but the market sentiment is not at an extreme high. If you want to allocate gold, it is recommended to use batch purchases or fixed investments to reduce costs, and pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the future. For investors who already hold gold ETFs and feeder funds, adjust their positions according to market volatility and peace of mind, and do not recommend blindly chasing up and down or investing a large amount of money at one time. If the price of gold is in a low area (e. g., $4000), it is not recommended to cut meat, but can make a choice that suits your actual situation based on your personal risk tolerance and expectations of future holding periods.

A：Theoretically, the weight of the portfolio allocation is inversely proportional to the volatility of the asset. For example, if gold has a long-term annualized volatility of 15%, investors are advised to allocate around 10% to 15%. When market volatility rises, the allocation ratio should be reduced appropriately, back to the central level of about 10%. Although market volatility poses a challenge to investors' mentality and trading ability, from a fundamental point of view, the current price is still at the lower edge of the volatility range and can maintain a position of about 10%. For investors with a higher risk appetite, it is also relatively safe to maintain their original base positions.

A：When investing in highly volatile assets, it is important to consider them within the overall asset allocation framework and emphasize the importance of building a diversified portfolio. Instead of blindly all-in when gold prices rise, investors should stick to established investment discipline in their portfolios.

A：The fixed investment strategy is a good choice for gold investment because it can help reduce investment cost risk and smooth investment costs. Especially in the current high market volatility, you can flexibly adjust the frequency of fixed investment, such as from monthly to more frequent biweekly or weekly fixed investment, while the amount of a single fixed investment is reduced accordingly, so as to effectively participate in the market when volatility rises, diversify investment risk and smooth transaction costs.

A：Investing in gold needs to be cautious and fully aware of its risks, although gold has long proved a good risk return, but no interest and return is not guaranteed, vulnerable to macro factors and changes in market perception. Investors should match their own risk tolerance and do not engage in leveraged transactions in hot situations to avoid excessive pressure on life. Rational investment, through scientific arrangements and good investment strategies, to make the investment experience better.

A：Recent investment in gold volatility, investment in gold ETFs or linked funds need to fully understand the risks, combined with their own risk tolerance prudent decision-making. You can focus on global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical developments and other information. The gold ETF (code 159937) and its linked funds (Class A 002610, Class C 002611 and Class E 021499) managed by Boshi Fund are medium-risk products. Investors must make good asset allocation in combination with investment objectives and risk tolerance when investing, so as to effectively reduce investment risks.