中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
In the first half of 2026, China's real estate market showed a trend of repair differentiation driven by policy. The central government has increased financial support for urban renewal, and the revision of the provident fund policy has broadened the scope of use and enhanced flexibility. The second-hand housing market in core cities performed well, and the new housing market rose structurally. Housing sales performance recovered, but the border weakened in June, the central enterprises to take land strong, private enterprises weakened. Market repair core city activity is high, the overall recovery takes time. In the second half of the year, the policy will increase or further promote market activity.
会议速览
This paper discusses the impact of real estate policy on the market in the first half of 2026, including the increase of urban renewal fund support, the revision of provident fund regulations to expand the beneficiary groups, the high frequency of policy optimization and the direction of focusing on activating demand, destocking and preservation, and analyzes the path of continuous fermentation of policy effect and the trend of market change.
In the first half of the year, the provident fund policy was optimized to improve the integration of funds and expand the scope of use, such as supporting the payment of second-hand housing down payment. In terms of the market, second-hand housing prices fell year-on-year, but core cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen performed better; the new housing market continued to rise structurally, and high-end improved real estate entered the market to drive prices. On the sales side, the second-hand housing market remained active, new home sales area and sales declined year-on-year, and the pattern of differentiation between cities was obvious.
Since the second quarter, the transaction of new houses and second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai has increased year-on-year, especially the performance of second-hand houses; after the optimization of Guangzhou and Shenzhen policies, the transaction of new houses and second-hand houses has increased significantly year-on-year; the rental level in the rental market has increased slightly, and the rent increase in core cities has expanded, and the market value has continued Enhance.
China's land market continued the characteristics of the flow system, the government supply structure adjustment, residential land launch area and transfer fees fell year-on-year. The decline in land transaction area and transfer fees in first-tier cities is small, and the average premium rate is high, indicating that the supply of high-quality land is stable. Second-tier cities were greatly affected by last year's technology, but core cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu still have a layout. Third-tier cities maintain low temperature operation, the average premium rate is low. National land transfer fees are highly concentrated in core cities, with top 20 cities accounting for 62% in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, the core city high-quality land into the market accelerated, housing enterprises to take land will increase, driving the overall premium rate to pick up, but the general city brand sentiment is still flat, the market heat to enhance the point distribution.
The second-hand housing market in core cities is expected to remain stable, the listing volume will stabilize, the supply relationship will improve, the rental price will stabilize, and the price may fluctuate slightly in the second quarter. The new housing market is driven by high-quality supply, structural improvement, the overall recovery will take time. The inflow of population and the release of urban improvement demand with strong industrial momentum support the market for high-end products. Housing enterprises operating performance and land strategy differentiation, some enterprises show strategic determination.
Total sales of 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year were nearly 1.6 trillion, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. In June, the year-on-year growth rate was 11.8 percent, but the margin weakened. The market activity in core cities has increased. The sales of enterprises such as China Shipping and China Merchants have increased by about 10% year-on-year, and the growth rate of enterprises such as Beijing Urban Construction R & D has exceeded 20%. Housing enterprises focus on core cities and high-quality products, to achieve performance against the trend of growth.
In the first half of 2023, the real estate market experienced significant changes. The number of 100 billion real estate companies decreased from four in the same period last year to three. The number of 10 billion real estate companies also decreased significantly, and market share was concentrated in financially healthy real estate companies. In the sales performance of top real estate companies, first-tier cities accounted for more than 45%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from last year, while the proportion of sales in second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities declined. This shows that the industry is shifting from homogeneous competition to diversified stratification, promoting long-term healthy and stable development.
The report pointed out that due to policy dividends and the attractiveness of high-quality locations in first-tier cities, the activity of the high-end real estate market has increased significantly, and the proportion of sales has increased significantly. At the same time, housing enterprises to take holiday profits, offline scene linkage, artificial intelligence live broadcast and other diversified marketing strategies to promote sales and cost optimization.
In the first half of the year, the total amount of land taken by real estate enterprises fell 33.7 percent year-on-year, and the value of new goods fell 33.4 percent year-on-year, both of which narrowed. Central state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land, Yuexiu, Guomao Real Estate to take land, the amount increased significantly year-on-year. The ability of private enterprises to take land has weakened. The number of private enterprises in the top 30 has decreased from 7 to 4, and the amount of land taken has dropped sharply.
The report analyzes in detail the sales and investment dynamics of real estate enterprises in the first half of 2023, pointing out that the core cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou and other markets are picking up, and the pace of land acquisition by real estate enterprises is stable, especially the performance of central enterprises and some private enterprises is positive. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the policy precision is expected to continue to enhance market activity, leading to improved sales performance of housing enterprises.
要点回答
Q:What are the key initiatives in real estate policy in the near future?
A:Recently, in June, the Ministry of Resources, the Ministry of Finance, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly issued relevant support policies for urban renewal. The central government continued to maintain greater support for urban renewal. In 2026, the investment special arrangement for urban renewal in the central budget was 97 billion, an increase of 21.3 percent over the same period last year. At the same time, starting from 2024, the central government will support 50 key cities for three consecutive years, with a maximum subsidy of 8 to 1.2 billion yuan for a single city, and a transitional policy will be introduced to allow idle resources such as buildings and factories to be transformed into cultural, creative, and elderly care within five years. In the industry, there is no need to change the nature of the land and pay the price of the land, and the efficiency of industrial renewal is improved through advance notice registration.
Q:What are the major adjustments to the provident fund policy?
A:After the revision of the housing provident fund management regulations, it is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the scope of use has been broadened, including housing decoration, property management fees, etc., the provident fund can be withdrawn; second, the coverage has been expanded, and individual industrial and commercial households, part-time employees and Flexible employees can voluntarily participate in the housing provident fund system; third, the fund management mechanism has been optimized to speed up loan approval from 15 days to less than 10 days, and promote the provident fund off-site mutual recognition of mutual loans, to facilitate the use of provident fund off-site depositors.
Q:What is the main direction of real estate policy optimization in the first half of this year?
A:Since the first half of the year, more than 560 real estate policies have been introduced, especially in the second quarter, the pace of policy landing has accelerated significantly. Policy optimization mainly focuses on activating demand, destocking and preservation, with specific measures including relaxing restrictions on home purchases, issuing home purchase subsidies, and improving supporting policies for urban renewal. The provident fund policy has become the focus of local optimization in the first half of the year. More than 300 related policies have been implemented. Many places have greatly increased the integration of provident fund funds, expanded the scope of use, supported the payment of second-hand housing down payment, property fees, decoration parking spaces, etc., and promoted housing replacement and issuance Measures such as housing subsidies.
Q:What are some of the prices and sales in the current market?
A:In the second-hand housing market, second-hand housing prices in 100 cities fell 2.29 per cent in the first half of the year, 0.12 per cent month-on-month and 7.68 per cent year-on-year. In June, 12 cities rose month-on-month and 88 cities fell. The new housing market showed a structural upward trend. In the first half of the year, the transaction index of new commercial housing rose by 0.59. The average price of new housing was 1784 yuan per square meter, up 0.16 percent from the previous month and 2 percent from the same period last year. The second-hand housing market is highly active. 133000 second-hand housing units were sold in 20 key cities in June, an increase of 12.6 percent over the same period last year, and a total of 761000 units were sold in the first half of the year, an increase of 10 percent over the same period last year. In terms of new home sales, statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that from January to May, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide fell 10.8 percent year-on-year, and sales fell 13.5 percent, while the transaction area of the 30 cities monitored in June fell slightly by 2 percent year-on-year, and the overall decline in the first half of the year was 10 percent.
Q:How is the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai?
A:Since the second quarter in Beijing and Shanghai, the transaction of new and second-hand houses has basically increased compared with the same period last year, especially in second-hand houses. In June, Beijing's second-hand housing rose 9.8 per cent year-on-year and Shanghai's 23.1 per cent year-on-year, both hitting 15-year highs. The Shanghai policy has obviously supported market confidence. In terms of new houses, new houses in Beijing and Shanghai fell by 3% and increased by 2% year-on-year respectively in June, with little overall change, with new houses falling by 2% in the first half of the year.
Q:How is the situation in Guangzhou and Shenzhen?
A:After the implementation of the development policy in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the market response has continued to this day. The new housing market has increased by more than 40% year-on-year for two consecutive months, and the second-hand housing has increased by more than 10% year-on-year for two consecutive months. The performance of the Guangzhou market was relatively flat, with new homes falling 12% year-on-year in June. New homes in Guangzhou were flat YoY in 1H20.
Q:How is the rental market?
A:In June, the average rent level of 50-story residential buildings rose by 0.08 month-on-month, realizing a trend from decline to rise, mainly due to the release of rental demand. The rent increase in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has expanded. Among them, the cost rent in Shenzhen has risen for four consecutive months, indicating that the value and influence of core cities in the leasing market continue to increase.
Q:How is the land market?
A:On the whole, the land market continued the characteristics of the flow system. The area of residential land launched by the government fell by 22% year-on-year, the transfer fee fell by 31.2 year-on-year, and the transaction rate was 23.7. The transaction area of first-tier cities fell 16.5 percent year-on-year, and the transfer fee fell 22.6 percent, but the premium rate was as high as 10.198 percent, with the highest premium rate among all tier cities. Second-tier cities were greatly affected by last year's regulation, but core cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu are still key layout areas. The land market in third-tier cities maintained a low-temperature operation, with a premium rate of only 2.9 per cent.
Q:What is the overall judgment of the market in the second half of the year?
A:The current market repair presents differentiated characteristics. It is expected that the second-hand housing market in core cities is expected to maintain a stable trend in the second half of the year. The year-on-year decline in new housing market sales will gradually narrow. Support policies such as high-quality supply entering the market and provident fund will have a certain supporting effect on the market. However, it will take time for the market to fully recover. Cities with continuous population inflow and strong industrial development momentum are expected to further release their demand for improved housing, which will form competitive support for new houses, especially mid-to-high-end products.
Q:What is the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first half of the year?
A:In the first half of the year, the total sales of 100 real estate companies were about 1.6 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points from January to May, and narrowed for four consecutive months. The month-on-month growth rate in June was 11.8 per cent, but the growth rate was smaller than in previous years, indicating that the sales repair of real estate companies has weakened at the margin. In addition, the increase in activity in the real estate market in core cities is the main reason for the continued narrowing of the decline in sales performance of real estate companies.
Q:What are the main drivers of sales growth?
A:The growth in sales performance of real estate companies is mainly due to real estate companies whose layout is focused on first-tier cities, especially companies such as China Shipping and China Merchants, which achieved a year-on-year increase of about 10% in sales in the first half of the year. By virtue of their advantages in core cities, especially first-tier cities, and creating the right products, these enterprises have achieved a hot selling situation.
Q:What is the trend of the number of housing enterprises camp?
A:In the first half of this year, the number of 100 billion real estate enterprises decreased to three (Poly, China Shipping, China Resources), a decrease of three compared with the same period last year; the number of 10 billion real estate enterprises was 34, a decrease of 12, and the number decreased significantly. The market share is concentrating on financially healthy enterprises and regional deep-cultivated private enterprises, and the industry pattern is shifting from homogeneous competition to diversified stratification.
Q:In terms of urban contribution, what is the impact of first-tier cities on the performance of housing enterprises?
A:According to statistics, 45% of the sales performance of typical real estate companies in the first half of the year came from first-tier cities, accounting for more than 44.6 of second-tier cities, while the sales performance of second-tier cities fell by 3.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The performance growth of head housing enterprises was significantly benefited from the release of demand in first-tier cities and the optimization of policy dividends.
Q:From the perspective of product type, how do high-end products perform?
A:In the first half of the year, among the representative enterprises, the sales of high-end products above 200 square meters accounted for 25.3, a year-on-year increase of 10.9 percentage points, and the growth rate was relatively fast. Among them, 90 to 140 square meters of improved products accounted for the highest proportion of sales, 40.8. The proportion of such products in first-tier cities and second-tier cities has increased significantly, while third-and fourth-tier cities have remained stable, but there is also a clear upward trend, reflecting the strong demand for high-end markets in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities.
Q:What are the characteristics of the marketing strategy of housing enterprises in the first half of this year?
A:The marketing strategy of housing enterprises in the first half of the year has four main characteristics. First of all, festivals and price concessions have become conventional sales methods. Housing enterprises reduce the actual transaction cost of customers by taking measures such as special price seconds to kill houses and one-price prices for construction houses, and cooperating with parking spaces and home appliances and furniture. Secondly, housing enterprises use offline scenes and cross-border linkage to expand customers, such as participating in government-sponsored house purchase exhibitions and diverting them in combination with events, night market carnivals and other activities. At the same time, they also actively use community and circle marketing to maintain old owners and activate the old and new mechanism. In addition, housing enterprises also use artificial intelligence and live blog combination of marketing to achieve cost reduction and efficiency. Finally, some real estate companies quickly de-inventory through pre-storage and precise opening.
Q:In the first half of the housing enterprises to take the situation?
A:In the first half of the year, the total amount of land taken by 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 33.7 compared with the same period last year, 6.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. With the new supply effect in Shenzhen and the improvement of the sales side of housing enterprises, the year-on-year decline in land acquisition continued to narrow. In terms of the value of new goods, the value of new goods of 100 real estate enterprises in the first half of the year fell 33.4 percent year-on-year, basically in line with the decline in the amount of land, but in June the core city land auction heat is higher. In terms of land acquisition scale, Yuexiu, China Resources and Poly ranked in the top three, and central state-owned enterprises played a ballast role in the land market.
Q:What are the characteristics of the top ten enterprises that took the land in the first half of the year?
A:In the first half of the year, the top ten enterprises that took the land were mainly sunshine enterprises, while the private enterprise Binjiang Real Estate only ranked 10th. Among them, China Resources Land, Yuexiu Real Estate and Guomao Real Estate have higher land acquisition amounts and sales ratios, and have greater land acquisition efforts, showing a strong willingness to invest. On the whole, the scale of land acquisition by private enterprises in the first half of the year was weaker than last year, especially in the top 30 land acquisition enterprises, the number of private enterprises decreased, the amount of land acquisition decreased sharply, indicating that private enterprises in the land acquisition capacity has weakened.
Q:What is the situation of land acquisition by private enterprises in core hot cities?
A:Although the overall acquisition of land by private enterprises has weakened, local private enterprises have maintained a certain pace of investment in core hot cities such as Hangzhou and Shanghai. The scale of land acquisition by enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has maintained a leading position. At the same time, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places have also attracted national real estate enterprises and local private enterprises to actively participate in land acquisition. For example, Poly, Binjiang and other enterprises in the above-mentioned core city land scale in the forefront.
Q:What is the current situation of real estate sales and investment land acquisition?
A:From the sales level, the decline in sales of 100 real estate enterprises in the first half of the year continued to narrow, but the narrowing rate weakened in June, indicating that the marginal sales performance of real estate enterprises weakened. Some companies such as Poly achieved sales growth in the first half of the year. From the perspective of investment and land acquisition, the decline in the total amount of land acquired by 100 real estate enterprises is also narrowing. Some central enterprises have strong land acquisition efforts, and private enterprises have maintained a certain investment rhythm in hot cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou. In the second half of the year, if the policy is precise and intensified, the market activity in key cities continues and is transmitted to second-and third-tier cities, housing enterprises to increase marketing efforts, sales performance decline is expected to further narrow.

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