“牛市旗手”再度蓄力?——证券行业配置价值解读
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会议摘要
The securities industry performed well in the-share market, with significant growth in economic, investment banking, asset management and interest income, and head companies expanding overseas markets to improve gross margins. Resident deposits turn to the stock market to enhance the value of A- share allocation. Under the guidance of the policy, the quality of listed companies has improved, the market volatility has decreased, the valuation of the securities sector is low, the profit growth rate is fast, and it has long-term investment value. Mergers and acquisitions to promote market concentration, improve gross margin, the securities sector is regarded as an undervalued investment target.
会议速览
The securities sector attracts investors' attention with its simple and clear main business, which mainly includes customer trading commissions and product sales fees. With the recovery of the market and the popularization of quantitative products, the share of investors buying and selling financial products in securities companies continues to grow, bringing stable income to securities companies. Investment banking, as another pillar, further enhances the investment value of the securities sector.
The investment banking business involves the issuance of stocks and bonds, including assisting companies in shareholding reforms, rectifying non-compliance situations, and submitting materials, which are critical to the revenue of securities companies. The margin trading business, on the other hand, allows investors to leverage or short stocks on the floor, and securities companies replenish their capital through a variety of financing methods. The stable pace of issuance of new shares has a positive impact on the investment banking business, while the margin trading business has to pay the corresponding costs.
China Securities Securities Company uses capital to carry out financing services, forming spread business, asset management through asset management license, charging management fees and performance commissions, self-operated business involves stocks, bonds and other investments, of which fixed income investment is the main, stock investment is small but the impact is large, the bull market contribution of significant income.
There are differences in the business composition of securities companies of different sizes, with the main business of head or large brokerages being more balanced, with a high proportion of investment banking and credit business, and a large proportion of revenue from the proprietary business of small brokerages. Economic business due to low commission prices, small brokerages to maintain gross margin pressure. Large brokerages are well-capitalized and can afford high-cost investment banking teams, with a clear trend of business concentration to the head.
The income structure of securities companies is highly dependent on the secondary market, economic business, credit business, asset management business and proprietary business are all fluctuating with the market, only the investment banking business is affected by the policy counter-cyclical adjustment, the overall positive correlation with the stock market characteristics, highlighting the nature of the securities industry as a high beta plate.
In April 2024, the State Council issued nine articles aimed at promoting the high-quality development of capital markets. The policy starts from the financing side, improves the access standards of listed companies, strengthens information disclosure, supports the development of hard technology and emerging industries, and emphasizes the importance of the quality of listed companies, aiming to optimize the market structure and enhance investor confidence.
In order to deepen the reform of the capital market, it is proposed to strengthen the delisting mechanism, urge companies with poor governance or losses for years to withdraw from the market, and at the same time guide long-term funds to enter the market, including the reform of public funds, improving the quality and investment value of the company, and encouraging the participation of long-term funds such as social security, insurance and bank financial management, so as to stabilize the market and reduce volatility.
The strategy of active capital markets directly benefits the economic business, high gross margin business and investment banking business of securities companies by increasing turnover, promoting wealth management and registration system reform, and promoting the increase of revenue and gross margin of securities companies.
This paper discusses the high concentration of profits of overseas securities companies and the low concentration of domestic securities industry due to local companies, and emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions to improve industry concentration and management efficiency.
This paper discusses the advantages of middle and back office personnel reuse brought about by the merger of securities companies, as well as the trend of increasing mergers and acquisitions in the industry under the guidance of supervision, aiming to improve the management level and gross profit margin through resource integration, reduce management costs and promote the market-oriented development of the industry.
This paper discusses the complementary advantages of securities companies through mergers and acquisitions, such as the complementarity of investment banking business and self-employed business capabilities, as well as the increase of scale effect through capital, reduce operating costs, improve operating efficiency, and promote the optimization of the business pattern of the industry.
Securities companies benefited from the significant growth in market turnover and financing balances, achieving high performance growth in each business segment, and head brokerages effectively increased gross profit margins by expanding the business of their Hong Kong subsidiaries, while meeting the resource allocation needs of overseas customers and promoting international development.
Since 2019, the proportion of residential deposits in total deposits has increased significantly, and as the real estate market returns to residential properties, residents are seeking new allocation channels for new assets. The improvement of the quality of the stock market under the guidance of policies has become an important factor in attracting residents' deposits into the market, especially the inflow of medium and long-term funds, which has promoted the enhancement of the investment value of the stock market.
The dialogue discussed the current low valuation of the securities sector, pointing out that its price-to-book ratio is in the 9% percentile in the past ten years, and the shareholding ratio of public funds has dropped significantly, but the profit growth rate is fast and the long-term investment logic is solid. Especially in the context of falling interest rates and the transfer of residents' assets, the securities company sector shows extremely high medium-and long-term allocation value, and the current decline actually provides room for value return.
The trend of the securities company sector from speculative attributes to value investment is discussed, and it is pointed out that its profit growth is fast, the main business is stable, the valuation is at a historical low, and it is seriously undervalued and suitable for long-term investment.
要点回答
Q:What are the main sources of income for listed companies in the securities sector?
A:One of the main sources of income of listed companies in the securities sector is economic business, that is, through the trading of stocks, ETFs and other trading targets in securities companies, securities companies will charge a certain percentage of commission. In addition, product sales are also an important part, including the purchase and sale of various financial products. Investors will also pay handling fees when buying and selling products by securities companies. These handling fees and management fees that may be incurred during the period when customers hold products are part of the income of securities companies.
Q:How is investment banking reflected in the revenue structure of securities firms?
A:Investment banking is another major source of income for securities firms, mainly through participation in the issuance of stocks, bonds and other financial targets, such as IPOs. In assisting listed companies to complete the shareholding system reform, financial combing, information disclosure rectification and submission of relevant materials, securities companies will charge a certain commission. Although the slowdown in the pace of new stock issuance during the bear market has a negative impact on the investment banking business, the current pace of credit issuance is relatively stable, which is conducive to the development of the investment banking business of securities companies.
Q:What role does the margin trading business play in the income of securities companies? What is the role of the proprietary business in the income structure of securities companies?
A:Margin trading is the third part of the income structure of securities companies. The client is required to pay the cost of the liability (e. g., the financing rate) when the securities firm raises funds through its own funds, stock offerings, share placements or other forms of financing. Due to the low cost of financing for securities firms, the financing rates offered to clients may be higher, resulting in spread income, which is one of the important sources of income for securities firms. Proprietary business is the investment of securities companies with their own capital in stocks, bonds and other financial targets, and may also participate in ETF, derivatives and other investments. Securities companies conduct proprietary business by buying bottom positions and taking hedging measures, charging commissions in the course of their business and generating more revenue in a bull market. Although equity investments are usually less volatile due to volatility, bond investments and fixed income investments are still the main components of the proprietary business of securities companies.
Q:How does the asset management business contribute revenue to securities firms?
A:The asset management business is the fourth source of revenue for securities companies, and with an asset management license, securities companies can carry out asset management services such as public funds and asset management for specific clients (such as private equity business). By raising funds and collecting management fees, you can also charge performance commissions for private equity businesses, which allows securities companies to use asset management licenses to expand their asset management business and increase revenue in addition to traditional economic businesses.
Q:What are the differences in the composition of the main business of securities firms of different sizes?
A:Larger securities firms, whose main business is relatively balanced, may account for a higher proportion of investment banking, as investment banking has a significant head effect. In addition, due to the high capital requirements of credit business, large securities companies with sufficient capital can better carry out such business. Among small securities companies, proprietary business accounts for a larger proportion of their revenue, relying mainly on the investment income of the proprietary team to achieve revenue growth.
Q:What is the relationship between the income composition of securities companies and the capital market?
A:All revenues of securities firms are directly or indirectly closely related to the secondary market. Among them, economic business (e. g., stock trading commissions) is positively correlated with market volume, and credit business (e. g., margin trading) is positively correlated with market conditions, with increased business volume and revenue when the market is good. Although the asset management business has certain counter-cyclical characteristics, but in a better market when the customer's willingness to buy increased, while the increase in the net value of products led to the increase in management scale, thereby increasing management fees and related income. The proprietary business, on the other hand, has exposure to equity assets, which increases or decreases with stock market fluctuations. In contrast, although the investment banking business is affected by the policy counter-cyclical adjustment, it is also positively related to the stock market in practice.
Q:What is the impact of the National Nine Policy on the stock market?
A:The nine policies of the country are at a high level, expressing the determination of the policy level to promote the high-quality development of the capital market. Starting from the investment side and the financing side, the policy reformed the potential problems of the securities market at that time, which injected a strong impetus into the long-term stable development of the securities market, especially played a positive role in alleviating the liquidity shortage caused by excessive IPO.
Q:Is there a direct relationship between the size of the IPU issue and the performance of the stock market?
A:The relationship between IPU issuance volume and stock market performance is not directly related. The share price is mainly determined by the profitability (EPS) and valuation level (PE) of listed companies, while the large amount of IPO funds may affect liquidity and thus the price-earnings ratio. But the size of the IPO does not directly affect the profitability or quality of the company.
Q:What are shareholders really worried about?
A:Most shareholders are more worried about the uneven quality of listed companies than the large number or size of IPOs. If the quality of listed companies is good, even if the amount raised is large, it will be welcomed by investors because of its high profitability.
Q:What important initiatives have been taken by the New District State Wine Amoy at the financing end?
A:At the financing end of the New District, Guojiutao has adopted measures to improve the listing standards of listed companies, strictly control access, select companies that meet the hard technology and future industrial development directions to provide diversified listing requirements, and strengthen information disclosure and delisting systems to improve and make real high-quality The listing of enterprises, while strict supervision to ensure the timeliness and accuracy of information disclosure.
Q:On the investment side, what are the policy measures to stabilize the capital market?
A:On the investment side, the policy will help reduce the overall volatility of the market, improve the risk-return characteristics of A- shares and achieve market stability by reforming public funds to meet long-term investment needs, improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, and guiding long-term funds such as social security, insurance and banking into the market.
Q:What is the impact of active capital markets on securities firms?
A:Active capital markets directly benefit the economic business of securities companies, especially the increase in turnover led to the growth of fee income. At the same time, the rapid development of high gross margin businesses such as investment advisory business and asset management business has helped to improve the gross margin of securities companies. Reforms such as the comprehensive registration system and mergers and acquisitions are also conducive to improving the investment banking revenue and gross profit margin of securities companies, and promoting the transformation of securities companies to high-end.
Q:After the merger of securities companies, how to integrate personnel and resources to improve efficiency?
A:After the merger of securities companies, back-office support personnel such as IT, operations, legal compliance and wind control can be reused in large quantities. The IT systems and related teams originally owned by the two companies can be simplified into one IT system after the merger, thereby streamlining personnel and increasing per capita output value. In addition, the regulator hopes to improve the management level, reduce management costs, and promote the complementary business advantages of different securities companies through industry mergers and acquisitions.
Q:What is the long-term impact of industry mergers and acquisitions on securities companies?
A:In the long run, the integration of industry resources is the development direction of the securities industry, through mergers and acquisitions can achieve the reduction of management costs and complementary business advantages. For example, large securities firms have economies of scale in areas such as investment banking, while small securities firms may have an advantage in proprietary business. After the merger and reorganization, it can significantly reduce the management cost of listed companies, and form a unique business combination, such as good at high-end business and good at retail business brokerage cooperation.
Q:Why is the merger and reorganization of securities companies conducive to large capital and reflect the scale effect?
A:Due to the high capital requirements of the securities business, mergers and acquisitions will help to increase the scale of capital to meet the needs of credit business, derivatives business and other capital consumption. Mergers and acquisitions can effectively reflect the scale effect of securities companies, thereby enhancing the business structure and efficiency of the entire industry, and benefiting business results.
Q:How are the fundamentals of securities firms currently performing?
A:The fundamentals of the securities company are good, and the operation of the main business is good. Take an index as an example, its operating income in the first quarter increased by 30% year-on-year, and its net profit growth rate was close to 20%. At the same time, the average daily stock-based trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, an increase of 77% year-on-year, and the financing balance also increased by more than 40%, which is conducive to the growth of economic business and credit business income. In addition, head securities companies are actively going out to sea to improve gross margins by increasing the proportion of overseas business, benefiting from factors such as higher gross margins in the Hong Kong subsidiary business and growing demand from overseas customers.
Q:What has happened to the role of the real estate market in the allocation of residential assets in recent years?
A:In recent years, with the concept of "housing, not speculation" deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the investment and financial attributes of real estate have gradually declined, and the new assets of residents no longer flow into the real estate market in large quantities. In the past, residents often preferred to buy investment properties when they made money, especially non-rigid purchases, and to increase investment through mortgages and leverage. But now, the real estate market tends to be rational, and investors have shifted from investment purchases to real rigid demand purchases. Therefore, there is a need for the same volume of investment targets to meet the growing investment needs of the population, and the stock market is given the opportunity to develop at this time.
Q:Why can the stock market attract a large number of residential deposits?
A:On the one hand, the return to residential properties of the real estate market has led to no allocation of new assets for residents; on the other hand, the value of medium-and long-term investments in the stock market has increased significantly, attracting residents to deposit in the form of fixed income plus, fixed income, and even directly purchase public or private securities investment funds and stocks to participate in the stock market. In addition, the sharp decline in risk-free interest rates (e. g., bank deposit rates from more than 3 per cent to near 1 per cent) has prompted residents to increase their risk appetite and put some of their money into equity assets.
Q:What is the current relationship between resident deposits and the total market capitalization of A- shares, and what are the implications for the future?
A:The data show that the ratio of residential deposits to the total market capitalization of A- shares has declined since April 2020, which means that there is still plenty of room for residential deposits to enter the market. At the same time, the allocation of financial institutions to the securities sector is obviously insufficient. With the adjustment and allocation of investment products such as public funds to the undervalued securities sector, as well as the outflow of funds from the real estate market, the securities sector is expected to usher in more investment opportunities.
Q:How do you view the current valuation status of securities firms and the value of their investments?
A:The PB (price-to-book ratio) of securities firms is currently at historically low levels, equivalent to only the 9% decile of the last 10 years. Although the overall valuation of the sector is low, considering the solid growth rate of the securities company's own income and profit, and the long-term investment logic is stable, especially in the context of the large cycle of the transfer of residential assets from the real estate market to the stock market, the potential growth of securities companies is very large. At the same time, due to the improvement of the quality of listed companies and the reduction of A- share volatility, the medium-and long-term allocation value of securities companies has been greatly improved, and the growth rate of short-term profits is fast. Therefore, the current securities company sector is actually the preferred target of value investment.

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