【中指研究院】中指市场形势及企业研究成果分享会
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会议摘要
Meng Xin and Wang Ling analyzed the trend of the real estate market picking up with policy support. The core cities ushered in a small spring, the transaction volume of second-hand housing increased, the price of new houses was supported by high-end disks, and the rental market cooled in the off-season. The sales performance of real estate enterprises is divided, the head of the enterprise performance is outstanding, but the private housing enterprises to take land will decline. In the face of complex environment, housing enterprises need to focus on core cities, optimize strategies, improve products and services, the market is expected to be good.
会议速览
The Politburo meeting stressed efforts to stabilize the real estate market, recognized the market repair situation in the first and second quarters, and proposed a solid promotion of urban renewal and the continuation of high-quality promotion policies. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and other cities have introduced policy response, the market performance is positive, the second-hand housing market is particularly prominent. The future market outlook is positive, but there is uncertainty.
The dialogue discussed policy adjustments in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places in terms of purchase restrictions and provident fund loan quotas, as well as the supporting role of central debt collection and storage in market confidence, and emphasized positive policy signals and changes at the market level.
Second-hand housing prices as a whole continue to price-for-volume trend, the core city showed signs of stopping the decline, but the overall signs are not obvious, need to continue to observe. New home prices were supported by high-end market entry, rising month-on-month. Rental market in April for the off-season, the average rent fell, but is expected to graduate season demand will be released.
In April 2020, the national second-hand housing market turnover increased by 13% year-on-year for the first time, Beijing and Shanghai new housing increased by 59% and 10% year-on-year, second-hand housing heat continued, Beijing second-hand housing turnover hit a nearly five-year high for the same period. The analysis points out that the delay of Spring Festival, the release of education demand and the rationalization of core plate prices are the key factors affecting the transaction trend.
During the May Day holiday, the property market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen was active under the policy drive, and the overall market warming was obvious. Although the new housing market in Shenzhen is in the repair stage, but the decline in second-hand housing is small, the market performance is stable. Hangzhou, on the other hand, was stable due to improved market entry. If there is no policy in the city to launch high-quality real estate or increase promotional efforts, the property market performance is relatively stable. The performance of the property market during the May Day holiday was in line with expectations. For specific data, please refer to the special topic of the April National Monthly Report released by the official micro-release.
From January to April 2023, the area of residential land sold in 300 cities nationwide fell by 24% and the transfer fee fell by 41%. Shanghai ranks first in the country with 28.5 billion yuan, followed by Guangzhou, Beijing and Hangzhou. Top 10 cities accounted for 46% and Top 20 accounted for 60%, up slightly from January-March. The premium rate rose to 8.9 per cent in April, influenced by plots in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Beijing.
In April, the real estate market showed a steady growth trend with policy support. Although the sales area of new houses has declined, the transaction volume of second-hand houses is significant. The transaction volume of new houses and second-hand houses in core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has increased year-on-year. The market is expected to improve, high-quality projects into the market is expected to further support the new housing market, while the second-hand housing turnover may slow down due to the release of education demand, but the overall price fluctuations are stable.
From January to April, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises totaled 900.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline that narrowed for two consecutive months, mainly due to the relaxation of purchase restrictions and housing subsidy policies in some cities, which promoted the activity of the second-hand housing market, thus affecting the new housing market. Poly, China Shipping and other head enterprises because of last year's active land, this year's sales performance is good. However, the number of tens of billions of real estate companies continues to decrease, marking the end of the era of the real estate industry's pursuit of scale.
The logic of industry competition is shifting towards product power, service power and financial soundness, resulting in high-debt and high-risk enterprises being passively left behind. At present, the 5 billion and 10 billion housing enterprises to increase the gold content. The characteristics of hot-selling projects include outstanding product strength, high cost performance, strong brand strength and potential location, which together promote the project to occupy a favorable position in the market.
From January to April, the amount of land taken by real estate companies fell 46.7 percent year-on-year, and the heat continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places high premium land sold, driving the market heat. Central state-owned enterprises such as Yuexiu, China Resources, Poly and other land acquisition amount, while private housing enterprises to take land scale and participation decline, mainly focused on the core city deep cultivation.
Housing enterprises to take land strategy continued last year, focusing on the core cities, the Yangtze River Delta region is particularly active, the head of the enterprise active layout, but the overall land heat decline, private enterprises performance is not as good as last year.
要点回答
Q:What are the most important meetings in April, and what are the main tone-setting for the property market?
A:The most important meeting in April was the Politburo meeting, the main tone of which included efforts to stabilize the housing market and solid progress in urban renewal. Compared with the previous statement, the change from "focus on stability" to "strive for stability" may mean recognition of the overall market performance from January to April this year, and also reflect the response strategy to the uncertainty of the current property market trend. The "solid promotion of urban renewal" shows that on the basis of urban renewal proposed in previous years, efforts have been stepped up this year and continued under the guidance of high-quality development.
Q:What real estate-related policies have been issued by many cities recently?
A:Recently, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan, Suzhou and other cities have issued relevant policies after the meeting. For example, Shenzhen adjusted the purchase restriction policy in the core area, increased the number of purchase restrictions, and relaxed some purchase restrictions; at the same time, it increased the provident fund loan limit to 3.5 million yuan. Guangzhou has introduced eight policies, which not only involve the increase of provident fund loan quota, but also include housing subsidies, land supply and stock revitalization. These policies show positive support for the real estate market everywhere.
Q:Is there any expected optimization space in terms of provident fund loan lines?
A:At present, there are significant differences in the amount of provident fund loans among different cities, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places, while Beijing is relatively low. This indicates that the amount of provident fund loans in cities such as Beijing may be further optimized, and there is some room for expected improvement.
Q:How do local policy levels and central debt collection and storage affect market confidence?
A:At present, 28 provinces and cities have announced the total amount of special bonds to purchase the stock of land, about 800 billion yuan, the actual issuance of about 370 billion yuan, accounting for less than half. This means that there is still much room for improvement in the strength of the reverse use of special bonds to acquire the stock of land, which will play a supporting role in market confidence.
Q:What is the current price trend of the second-hand housing market?
A:The second-hand housing market continues to exchange price for volume. Although the number of listings is still decreasing, and the prices of second-hand housing in some core sectors have fallen to a reasonable level, the overall market is still dominated by a month-on-month decline, which is slightly larger than last month. Fluctuations in the process. Among the first-tier cities, the price of second-hand housing in Shanghai rose slightly from the previous month, showing signs that the second-hand housing in some core cities has stopped falling, but the sustainability still needs to be observed.
Q:What about the price of a new home?
A:New home prices were driven by high-end improvement market entry, with an overall month-on-month increase of 0.08. Due to the increase in the pace and enthusiasm of enterprises in March and April each year, the entry of high-end improvements into the market has played a supporting role in the overall price and transaction volume, so the price of new houses has shown an upward trend from the previous month.
Q:How was the rental market in April?
A:During the off-season in April, the average rent on the 50th floor fell slightly from the previous month. But with the arrival of the graduation season, it is expected that the rental demand will continue to release.
Q:second-hand housing sales market situation?
A:The second-hand housing market showed a recovery trend in April, and the transaction volume increased for the first time year-on-year, with an increase of about 13%. This is mainly affected by the delay of the Spring Festival time leading to the purchase of the pace of the back shift and part of the release of education demand. However, the demand for education may decline in May and June, and the year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing transactions may narrow or even decline slightly.
Q:Beijing and Shanghai second-hand housing market performance?
A:Beijing and Shanghai had a good performance in April, continuing the Xiaoyangchun market. The transaction volume of new and second-hand houses increased by 59% and 10% respectively year-on-year. Among them, Beijing's growth rate is due to the centralized filing of some properties on April 1. While new houses in Guangzhou led to transaction growth due to the entry of new houses into the market, new houses in Shenzhen were in the repair channel, still declining year-on-year, but the decline in second-hand houses was relatively small.
Q:How did the property market in key cities perform during the May Day holiday? How did the land market perform in April?
A:During the May Day holiday, the market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen was affected by the policy, and the market performance in Hangzhou was stable under the condition of improving the market entry. On the whole, the property market in cities that have introduced policies before the holiday is relatively hot, while cities that have not introduced policies but have marketing efforts such as price reduction and promotion have relatively stable property market performance. In April, there were more homestead transfer activities in 53 key cities across the country, but the overall transaction area and transfer fees both declined year-on-year. Among them, Shanghai ranks first in the country with a residential land transfer fee of 28.5 billion yuan, followed by Beijing and Guangzhou. From the perspective of the premium rate, January was flat, February was driven by the Guangzhou plot, and the premium rate fell to 3% in March. In April, under the influence of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Beijing, the premium rate increased to 8.9.%. Although the scale of concessions in April and March is not much different, they have both declined year-on-year, and from the perspective of specific land transfer fees Top5, core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou still dominate.
Q:In the auction of the plot on April 8, why did the housing enterprises participate highly and the plot could be sold at a high price?
A:There are three main reasons why the plot attracts housing enterprises to participate in the auction and sell at a high price. First of all, the plot is located in the core, close to Line 5, surrounded by industrial belts with strong purchasing power such as Ali and Huawei, with a rich customer base. Secondly, the scarcity of land is extremely high, the surrounding several years there is no homestead supply, the stock is healthy, supporting its high premium rate. Finally, the plot has good natural landscape and ecological resources, which is attractive for real estate companies to create improved high-quality products.
Q:From the overall real estate market environment, the current situation?
A:The current real estate market environment is generally positive. The Politburo meeting has set the tone to stabilize the real estate market, and many cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Wuhan have issued a series of active policies to follow up. From the purchase restriction policy, provident fund loans to housing subsidies and other dimensions, the policy is stronger. In addition, the data shows that both new and second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai have achieved year-on-year growth, and Guangzhou has also seen a turnaround. The market has a strong sustainability and is expected to improve.
Q:What is the outlook for the real estate market for the next few months, especially May?
A:It is expected that, driven by the policy, the potential demand in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities may be further released, providing important support for the new housing market. High-quality projects or good houses with government labels can also have a positive impact on the new housing market. However, in the second-hand housing market, the release rhythm of education demand may slow down in May and June, leading to a natural decline in transaction volume, but the overall scale is still there, and the price volatility is small and remains stable.
Q:What is the business performance and land acquisition of real estate enterprises?
A:From January to April, the total sales of TOP100 housing enterprises was 900.45 billion billion yuan, 3.8 percentage points lower than that from January to March. This is mainly due to the introduction of policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, housing subsidies and increasing the amount of provident fund in some key cities, which have promoted the activity of the second-hand housing market and gradually transmitted it to the new housing market. From April alone, the sales performance of leading real estate companies such as Poly, China Shipping, and China Resources increased significantly year-on-year. The reason is that they actively acquired land in core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai last year. These plots have been converted into new listed sources this year., To ensure the sustainability of sales. At the same time, the number of tens of billions of real estate companies continues to decrease, marking the end of the era of pure pursuit of scale expansion.
Q:What are the changes in the current logic of real estate competition?
A:The current logic of real estate competition has shifted from a focus on debt scale and high-risk business to a focus on product power, service power and financial soundness. Some high-debt, high-risk companies are forced to withdraw from the market due to debt defaults, business shrinkage and other reasons. At present, companies that remain in the tens of billions and 5 billion real estate companies have higher gold content.
Q:What are the characteristics of the hot-selling projects in April? What are the key factors for the success of the hot-selling projects?
A:The characteristics of the hot-selling projects in April are mainly reflected in three aspects: first, these projects have outstanding product strength and high cost performance; secondly, some just-needed or improved projects can achieve improvement due to their location advantages, good surrounding supporting facilities and excellent product design. The standard of products, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the project; finally, brand power is also an important guarantee for hot-selling projects, most of the developers are central enterprises, state-owned enterprises or private real estate enterprises that have been deeply cultivated for many years. With their financial strength, delivery ability and local brand influence, they occupy a favorable position in the market competition. The key factors for the success of hot-selling projects include but are not limited to: brand IP heat, such as China Construction Equation Guoxian Mansion attracting consumers with the help of IP heat of previous hot-selling projects; The value of the core or potential location, the plot is located in the city's core hinterland or adjacent to the planned emerging sector, and the advantages of transportation and educational resources; As well as the anti-risk and value-added expectations brought by non-replicable scarce elements.
Q:Housing enterprises to take the situation?
A:From January to April this year, the total amount of land taken by housing enterprises was 192.31 billion yuan, down 46.7 percent from a year earlier. Although the heat of taking land continued to decline, the decline this month narrowed from last month. Among them, high-quality plots in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities have led to an increase in the land premium rate, narrowing the decline. From the perspective of the types of land-taking enterprises, central state-owned enterprises are still the main force. For example, Yuexiu, China Resources, Poly and other enterprises have the highest amount of land acquisition, while the scale and participation of private enterprises have declined compared with last year.
Q:In which cities do real estate companies mainly focus on land acquisition from January to April? How does the Yangtze River Delta region perform in terms of the amount of land acquisition by real estate companies?
A:From January to April, housing enterprises mainly concentrated in Hangzhou, Chongqing, Kunming and other cities to take land to replenish their positions. The entire Yangtze River Delta region occupies a prominent position in the amount of land taken by top ten enterprises. As Hangzhou and Shanghai push land, the scale of land taken by enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta has been driven.
Q:Which enterprises actively layout and active in the current land market?
A:Poly, China Merchants and other head enterprises in the current market active layout, they last year has basically worked out a second-tier city core land, and this year's performance is good, continue to take land in these areas to maintain operations.
Q:How was the land acquisition in key cities last month and this month?
A:Last month, Yuexiu took a large-scale plot of land, which drove the growth of the total amount of land in the area. This month, there was also a certain increase in the number of land auctions in Beijing. From the point of view of the top ten enterprises in key cities, the head enterprises focus on the core cities to take land, while some private enterprises and local state-owned assets are expanding in deep-cultivated areas, such as the layout of Binjiang, agile and other enterprises in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other cities.
Q:What are the characteristics of the enterprise nature of the total land price top 10?
A:The enterprises with a total land price of top 10 are basically central enterprises, and they are outstanding on high-priced plots in core cities.
Q:What is the overall land acquisition heat and strategy of the current housing enterprises?
A:Overall, the housing enterprises to take the heat continued the previous trend, the strategy basically continued last year's strategy, focusing on the core areas and hot core areas to take land.
Q:In the face of the current complex market situation, how should housing enterprises avoid taking the wrong land or taking it?
A:The Chinese Academy has rich experience in scientific research and judgment. It is recommended to communicate with the customer manager offline and obtain relevant meeting materials. At the same time, a press conference on the research results of China's listed real estate companies will be held on May 12. Interested companies can apply to account managers in advance to participate.

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