A：Recent news from the Strait of Hormuz has been volatile. Initially, the United States and Iraq announced a two-week truce and the opening of the strait, leading to a correction in oil prices and a subsequent adjustment in the coal sector. Yesterday, however, Iran announced that the Strait was closed again for violations of the negotiated agreement, including Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This series of changes has caused the market to have doubts about the possibility of the future opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and there is greater uncertainty in expectations. The impact on the coal sector is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, although my country's coal supply is mainly domestic, overseas coal imports will be indirectly affected. The rise in global oil prices has prompted people to turn to buying coal, thereby pushing up overseas coal prices., And then restrain domestic demand for imported coal. Secondly, the rise in oil prices will drive up the prices of chemical products, while China has more coal chemical production capacity, and the rise in chemical prices will enlarge the profit space of coal chemical industry. Finally, due to the resource endowment advantage of China's rich coal, flat oil and less gas, the importance of coal as a non-renewable energy source is becoming more and more prominent in the international energy tension, and its long-term pricing valuation is expected to improve. Although the mood of the coal sector has fluctuated due to the easing of the situation in the United States and Iraq and the expected fall in oil prices, coal prices have obviously returned to close to that level since February 27. This means that after a rapid rise, the market's expectations for the continuity of the U. S.-Iran conflict and the sustainability of high oil prices have gradually weakened, and the coal sector has priced these expected changes in advance, so the current price is basically back to the state before the conflict.

A：We don't think people need to be too anxious about whether the Strait of Hormuz will be opened, but it does have some impact. If oil cannot be shipped out smoothly and oil prices remain high, it will be good for the coal chemical sector and coal valuations. However, if oil prices fall, the future expectations of the coal sector may be affected to some extent, but the current position has been priced more, the short-term emotional level may be disturbed, but the long-term impact may not be too great.

A：Even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, oil prices will not easily return to their low levels. The current oil price is 80-90 US dollars per barrel, which is not high, which is significantly higher than the previous price of 50 or 60 US dollars. This will make the demand for coal and oil replenishment very strong in the short term. When the oil price is above US $80, coal chemical industry has a high cost performance ratio, which can stimulate coal demand and improve the profitability of related enterprises.

A：Indonesia is one of the most important sources of coal imports in China, and its output quota has a great impact on the coal market. The uncertainty of Indonesia's coal production quota this year has led to market expectations that coal supply may be more severe this year. Data in March showed that Indonesia's seaborne coal exports and exports to mainland China fell year-on-year. In addition to quota issues, rising overseas coal prices and lower domestic cost performance were also the main reasons.

A：Indonesia's coal production quota in 2026 was originally expected to be reduced to 0.6 billion tons, but the latest news shows that the final quota may exceed 0.7 billion tons, which is lower than market expectations. Indonesia's production reduction may be due to economic considerations, hoping to increase coal prices by controlling production, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and tax support. This also reflects Indonesia's strategy to protect local resources and enhance competitiveness in the context of geopolitics and anti-globalization.

A：Coal supply is affected by two key factors. One is the coal production situation at home and abroad from the perspective of the whole year; the other is that the specific value of Indonesia's coal production is not yet clear, which has a certain impact on the sentiment of the coal sector. In addition, the performance of domestic coal in the off-season consumption also has an impact on the market. The main factors affecting the coal market in the near future include: reduced domestic raw coal production and limited new production capacity; Shanxi coal mine safety accidents have led to increased safety supervision, which may affect production; the Daqin line will be overhauled for 30 days from April 1, which will reduce coal transportation volume and efficiency, thus leading to a decline in port inventory. Under the combined effect of these factors, the coal market has shown a tightening state, and coal demand performed well at the beginning of the year, especially the demand for thermal power generation has exceeded expectations.

A：Although short-term expectations may be reduced, from the perspective of coal fundamentals, because domestic coal supply is mainly domestic, and when overseas coal prices rise sharply, domestic coal prices have not followed the sharp rise, indicating that the domestic coal market is relatively stable. Taking into account the stable demand in the coal demand structure in the fields of power generation and coal chemical industry, as well as the room for improvement in capacity utilization, coal fundamentals have been ignored in the recent period but performed well, especially in the off-season coal prices remain strong.

A：After the US-Iran conflict and the expected adjustment of Indonesia's coal production quota, the coal sector has adjusted back, and the current coal fundamentals are not pessimistic, but perform better. Therefore, it may be a better time to lay out the coal sector in this position, especially with the arrival of the summer peak season for electricity consumption, coal prices are expected to show stronger price elasticity, which may drive the coal sector to start a new round of market. Even if future production quotas are variable or international coal price support weakens, the coal sector still has medium-and long-term investment value based on the strategic importance of the global perspective of coal resources and the credit issue of the US dollar.

A：We can consider the low-batch layout of the coal sector, recommend investors to pay attention to Cathay Pacific Fund's coal ETF(515220), the fund is large in scale, good liquidity, focus on the entire coal industry chain, can effectively reflect the coal sector market. The main logic includes: 1) domestic supply constraints, resulting in a year-on-year reduction in coal supply due to the coal overproduction verification and safety supervision carried out after the implementation of the anti-roll policy last year; 2) There are still expectations of safety supervision this year, and the withdrawal of guaranteed nuclear production capacity; 3) The approval of Inner Mongolia disaster control mine may affect the output; 4) The new production capacity may not be enough to make up for the withdrawn production capacity due to the production capacity.

A：In addition to the factors already mentioned, it also includes the impact of external disturbances such as international geopolitical conflicts on the evaluation of coal resources.

A：Coal chemical industry is currently in the stage of new production capacity. Although the new production capacity is not particularly large, there will be continuous new production capacity put into the market in the next few years. In the short term, coal chemical demand and profitability are better, and long-term new capacity will drive coal demand.

A：From a global perspective, with the vigorous development of AI applications and the global emphasis on energy security, energy demand is showing a trend of growth, and the status of coal as an energy security ballast will not be shaken.

A：Another important logic is the high dividend characteristics of the coal sector, the current coal sector dividend yield of 4.84, in the low interest rate environment has a significant allocation value, so optimistic about the long-term coal sector investment opportunities, and recommended low batch layout.