贵金属波动加大，2026黄金展望！
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会议摘要
Huaan Fund analyst Zhou Honghao analyzes the prospects of the gold market and global asset allocation, pointing out that many Southeast Asian central banks plan to deposit gold in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi. The settlement of Australian iron ore in Renminbi is positive for the internationalization of the Renminbi. It is predicted that gold will continue to be bullish in 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the trend towards de-dollarization.
He introduces ETF allocation strategies, including stable large-category allocation, technology growth, and balanced value, and recommends paying attention to Hong Kong assets and the spring volatility of A-shares. Emphasizing the need for caution in investment, as changes in the market environment may affect judgment. Zhou Honghao reviews the performance of the gold market in 2025, analyzing the neutral impact of events such as the conflict in Venezuela on gold pricing, and predicts that the gold market in 2026 will remain favorable in the context of loose monetary policy, but attention should be paid to the potential space for interest rate cuts brought about by a mild recession in the US economy.
He introduces new ETF allocation strategies, emphasizing the importance of gold in diversified asset allocation, reminding investors to pay attention to the performance of Hong Kong assets in January 2026, while maintaining a neutral attitude towards the domestic bond market.
会议速览
Outlook for the Gold Market in 2026: New Perspectives and Portfolio StrategiesLooking back at the strong performance of gold in 2025, with an increase of over 60%, mainly driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and global central bank interest rate cuts. Looking ahead to 2026, the new cycle of gold will focus on the internationalization of the Renminbi and institutional fund focus in a low interest rate environment. Additionally, an optimized six-day ETF allocation strategy was shared, emphasizing the impact of the end of the Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle on global asset pricing.
Outlook for the gold market in 2026: Geopolitical conflicts and monetary policy impact.From the beginning of the year to the end, the gold market experienced multiple fluctuations, mainly influenced by the trade war, geopolitical conflicts, and the Fed's interest rate cuts. The conflict in Venezuela has a neutral impact on gold pricing, but in the long term, a shift in policy focus in the Americas region may exacerbate geopolitical conflicts and affect the gold market. Recently, the price of gold has been fluctuating near $4380, and it may break through the previous highs in the future.
The four major logics of gold allocation in 2026: US dollar credit, interest rate cycle, geopolitical risks, and diversified assets.Shared the four key rationales for the gold allocation in 2026: the credit issues of the US dollar system and US treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle, the demand for safe-haven assets brought by global geopolitical uncertainties, and the importance of diversified asset allocation in a low-interest rate environment. Gold, due to its profitability and low correlation, has become a worth considering investment choice in the context of credit currency overissuance and declining trust in US dollar assets.
Analysis of the New Cycle in the Gold Market: Transition from Traditional Cycles to a Multi-Dimensional Perspective.The conversation delved into the analysis framework of the gold market, expanding from the traditional cycle of declining real interest rates in the United States to four new dimensions including central bank gold purchases, the contradiction of the US dollar's credit, the internationalization of the Renminbi, and new fund allocations in a low interest rate environment. It emphasized the positive impact of loose monetary policy on gold, predicting that the gold market will present a gradually slow trend in the coming years. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on the policies of the Federal Reserve, but may bring new investment opportunities.
Gold Market Outlook for 2026: Economic Shallow Recession and Fed Rate Cuts LogicDiscussed the expected increase in the gold market in 2026 ranging from 15% to 30%, based on the logic of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, central banks buying gold, and expectations of a mild economic recession. The Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates, with possible rate cuts in March and September, gradually returning to a neutral rate of 3%. Trump's policies may lead to fiscal and monetary easing, which could benefit the gold market.
Analysis of the logic behind the Fed's rate adjustments and trends in gold pricing.The conversation delved into the logic behind the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, pointing out that in the absence of stagflation or overheating in the economy, with inflation maintained at 2% and an unemployment rate of around 4.2%, interest rates will move closer to the neutral level of 3%. It mentioned the unrealistic nature of President Trump's desire to reduce US bond rates to 1%, analyzed the impact of the tariff war and trade frictions on inflation, and the effect of economic recession signals on the room for interest rate cuts. Finally, it predicted that the loose monetary environment in the first half of 2026 would be favorable for gold pricing.
Central Bank Gold Purchases and Gold Pricing: The Impact of Global Central Bank Actions on the Gold MarketDiscussed the impact of the central banks' doubling of gold purchases since 2022 on the pricing of gold, especially focusing on the behavior of central banks in countries such as China, India, Poland, Turkey, South Korea, and Brazil. It was pointed out that Russia has sold gold due to sanctions, but overall central banks of various countries are de-dollarizing through gold purchases, which is beneficial for gold pricing. In the future, the expectations of gold purchases from countries like India, Japan, Turkey, and Brazil are expected to have a positive impact on the gold market.
Five Responses to the US Credit Crisis and Fiscal Dilemma.The five major strategies for dealing with the US fiscal dilemma in the background of the US dollar credit crisis were discussed: first, escalating debt contradictions through fiscal expansion; second, attempting to save expenses through political means, but failing; third, using tariff wars to recover funds, with significant effects; fourth, considering lowering funding costs through Fed interest rate cuts, but facing the risk of economic recession; fifth, investing in AI in hopes of long-term economic growth, with effects yet to be observed. The overall trend indicates that the US credit dilemma will continue to worsen.
The rise of Asian capital and the internationalization of the Renminbi are driving new trends in gold ETFs and gold allocation.The discussion focused on the growth of Asian funds, specifically the increasing demand for domestic gold ETF investments, and the important role of gold in the internationalization of the Renminbi process. China's gold ETF size has reached a new high, with Hong Kong setting up gold warehouses and Southeast Asian central banks depositing gold into the Shanghai Gold Exchange, reflecting the importance of gold in asset allocation and the internationalization of the Renminbi.
RMB settlement helps shift gold pricing power and short-term market outlook.The impact of RMB settlement on the pricing power of gold was discussed, emphasizing the enhanced role of Chinese funds in the market. The volatility difference between gold and silver was analyzed, pointing out that the current cost-effectiveness of silver is not high. Based on the global gold ETF flow situation, an optimistic attitude towards the gold market at the beginning of 2026 was taken, believing that the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts will drive gold demand.
Asset allocation outlook for 2026: Gold, ETFs, and economic productivity as the main themes.The dialogue discussed the impact of geopolitical changes in 2026 on resource allocation, analyzed the driving factors of the gold market including real interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, and fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Renminbi. At the same time, it shared ETF allocation strategies, emphasized the key allocation themes of economic productivity (AI and high-end manufacturing), Hong Kong stock technology, and dividend fund positioning, pointing out the long-term investment value of gold and non-ferrous assets.
Huai'an ETF multi-strategy configuration: a steady and proactive asset allocation planOver the past three years, the market has continued to provide industry and asset allocation strategies. In 2026, Huai'an ETF launched four new strategies: value balance, technology growth, stable and active asset allocation, aiming to meet the investment needs of different risk preferences. The stable allocation focuses on bond ETFs, targeting absolute returns, with drawdown control within 2%; the active allocation has an equity-to-bond ratio of 6:4, aiming for an annualized return of 12%. The new strategies have been demonstrated in real trading for three years, showing good performance and deserving the attention of institutional investors.
Explanation of Technology Growth and Value Balanced Strategy: Focus on Growth Enterprise Board and Low Volatility DividendThe discussion focused on technology growth strategies, with an emphasis on layout of the ChiNext 50, technology chips and other technology tracks, and positive outlook on directions such as artificial intelligence and aerospace robots. The value balance strategy focuses on low volatility index dividends, and the core satellite strategy covers Hong Kong-listed central enterprises dividends, among others. In January, the allocation viewpoint tends towards large-cap value and cyclicals, with a recommendation to focus on manufacturing, financial real estate cycles, and dividend directions.
Outlook for the new cycle of gold in 2026 and January major asset allocation strategy.In January, Hong Kong stock assets are looking good, with Chinese stocks likely to be active in the spring, possibly in March or April. The bond allocation is slightly neutral. Based on a three-year experience with ETF strategy, the weights of Chinese stocks, Hong Kong stocks, overseas assets, and commodities have been optimized, increasing the proportion of bond assets. The historical strategy performance has been stable, with positive returns over three years. Emphasis is placed on the gold cycle and asset allocation across different categories, providing fixed income solutions and reminding investors of investment risks. Continuous service for investors will be provided in the future.
要点回答
Q：What is the outlook for the gold market in 2026?
A：Entering the year 2026, the focus of domestic assets will shift towards the 15th plan and fundamental improvement, while in terms of global assets, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle may be entering its final stage, which will bring new pricing opportunities. Looking back at the performance of gold in 2025, its rhythm is understandable, and to understand the trend of 2026, one needs to refer to the overall performance of that year.
Q：How will gold perform in 2025?
A：In 2025, gold performed exceptionally well, with a yearly increase of over 60%. Both the price of gold in US dollars and in Chinese yuan saw significant increases. Among global asset classes, gold's performance was exceptional.
Q：What are the two main trends in global asset pricing in 2025?
A：The two main trends in global asset pricing in 2025 are: the first trend focuses on the valuation repair of Chinese assets brought about by capital market reforms; the second trend comes from global central bank interest rate cuts, especially the reassessment of asset liquidity due to rate cuts by overseas Federal Reserve.
Q：Can you please review the market phases of gold in 2025?
A：In 2025, the gold market can be divided into several stages. From the beginning of the year to April 22nd, due to factors such as import tariffs on commodities, gold experienced a round of replenishment and reached a high level. From May to August, gold mainly fluctuated. After August 22nd, it broke through $4300 per ounce due to the Fed's interest rate cut again. In November and December, gold once again broke through previous highs, indicating that the pattern of the entire gold market in 2026 is further opening up.
Q：What is the impact of the conflict in Venezuela on the pricing of gold? What are the key events that have recently affected the gold market?
A：In the short term, the conflict in Venezuela has a neutral impact on gold pricing, as geopolitical conflicts usually do not significantly affect gold pricing unless they affect the monetary policy direction of core economies. However, current gold pricing is also affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases and declining trust in US dollar assets. The conflict in Venezuela may lead to the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, providing some support to gold prices. Recent key events include a potential easing of geopolitical tensions resulting from US-China tariff negotiations, and improved relations following the meeting of leaders from South Korea and North Korea. In addition, despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and Japan's interest rate hike, gold prices were not disturbed and instead fluctuated at high levels, with the possibility of breaking previous highs.
Q：What are the main configuration logics for gold in 2026?
A：We believe that there are four main allocation logics for gold in 2026. Firstly, due to the issues with the US dollar system and US debt itself, market concerns about the potential credit issues of the US dollar have arisen, as its debt levels are high and interest rates are rising. The second logic is the market's expectation of a rate-cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with potentially two rounds of rate cuts from September 2024 to 2025, which is neutral to slightly bullish for the gold market. The third logic is the global geopolitical uncertainty and the hedging demand for gold, as increasing risks in US debt and geopolitics may temporarily catalyze gold. Lastly, from the perspective of diversified asset allocation, in a low-interest environment domestically, fixed income and diversified asset allocation are gaining attention, with gold becoming an important allocation entry point due to its profitability and low correlation.
Q：Will geopolitical conflicts such as those in Venezuela have a significant impact on the price of gold?
A：Geopolitical conflicts generally do not have a direct impact on the policy of the Federal Reserve, so they will not cause significant fluctuations. However, if the market maintains its current loose pace, gold will still benefit, otherwise it may be bearish for the gold market.
Q：What factors is the traditional cycle of gold analysis based on?
A：The traditional cycle of gold analysis mainly comes from the decline in real interest rates in the United States. In terms of understanding new cycles, we have expanded from focusing on central bank gold purchases three years ago to four new dimensions, including ongoing purchases by various central banks due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating contradictions in US dollar credit, the impact of renminbi internationalization on gold pricing power, and the participation of new funds such as central banks and overseas stablecoins in the gold market.
Q：What is the impact of loose monetary policy on the gold market?
A：Loose monetary policy typically leads to lower interest rates overall, especially during a rate-cutting cycle accompanied by economic recession, the loose monetary market will bring substantial benefits to the gold market. According to the current market pace, if the loose trend continues next year, it will still be beneficial for gold, with expected price increase of around 15 to 30 points.
Q：What are the economic expectations for the United States in 2026?
A：We expect a mild recession in the overall US macroeconomy in 2026. Based on the latest information (January 5), the Federal Reserve's observation indicates that there is an 82.8% probability of maintaining the current interest rate levels in January. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice around March and September of the second half of the year, gradually approaching the neutral rate of 3%. Currently, the logic behind further interest rate cuts is more preventive rather than in response to an economic recession.
Q：What are the issues Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, is looking at and how do they impact gold?
A：According to the current situation, there is an increasing probability of Kevin taking office as chairman, with a probability of about 70% to 80%. If a dual easing policy of fiscal and monetary policies is implemented, it may lead to the Federal Reserve losing its independence and relying more on Trump's expected adjustments to fiscal policy, which is a positive factor for gold next year.
Q：Why did the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? What is the logic behind it?
A：There is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but instead to understand the clues and logic behind it. As long as the US economy does not show obvious stagnation or overheating, and the inflation rate remains around 2% in the long term, with the unemployment rate staying around 4.2%, the Federal Reserve will gradually adjust the interest rate level to the neutral rate of 3%.
Q：How likely is it for Trump to lower the interest rate on US debt to 1%?
A：According to the framework of the Federal Reserve, lowering the US bond interest rate from the current 3% to 1% is not very realistic. It would require seeing very low inflation rates and clear signs of economic recession in the United States, such as deteriorating non-farm employment data and worsening unemployment rates, before further interest rate cuts could be possible.
Q：How will the gold pricing be in the first half of 2026?
A：In the context of loose monetary policy, the pricing of gold is still relatively positive in the first half of 2026.
Q：How does the central bank's purchase amount affect the pricing of gold?
A：The increase in central bank gold purchases has been a core factor affecting gold pricing since 2022. Going into 2025, ETF net inflows have become the main driving force. At the same time, multiple central banks including those of China, India, Poland, Turkey, South Korea, and Brazil have either increased or planned to increase their holdings of gold, which is overall beneficial for gold pricing.
Q：What is the logic behind the Russian central bank selling gold?
A：The current selling of gold by the Russian central bank is mainly due to the helplessness in the background of US dollar sanctions, in order to make up for the fiscal deficit. This disguised de-dollarization trend is overall beneficial for gold pricing and the de-dollarization main theme.
Q：On the issue of the US dollar credit, why is the current interest expenditure in the US exceeding military expenditure, and what impact will this situation have on the future?
A：The high interest expenses in the United States are mainly due to its extremely high debt levels, as well as rising interest rates. In this situation, future finances will face greater pressure, and if measures are not taken, the debt dilemma will worsen.
Q：What paths did the US government take to address its financial problems? What is the second approach to addressing the issue?
A：The first path is that the US government tends to leave problems for the next administration to solve during fiscal austerity, by further expanding the fiscal scale through acts like the Grand Beautiful Act, thereby exacerbating the debt problem. The second path is that in the first half of 2025, they attempted to cut expenses by reducing the Democratic Party's project funding, but this strategy ultimately failed.
Q：What is the third response path? What is the fourth response path?
A：The third path is to increase fiscal revenue in the short term through means such as tariff wars, which may seem beneficial to Americans, but could result in mutual harm in the long run. However, it is an effective strategy for a certain period of time. The fourth path is to rely on the continued expansion of debt. Trump hopes to lower the cost of funds by lowering interest rates, but this requires the support of an economic recession environment. If forcefully intervened, it may impact the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Q：What is the fifth response path?
A：The fifth path relies on the growth of long-term investments such as AI to bring about significant changes in the macroeconomy, but the realization of this goal still remains uncertain.
Q：In terms of gold investment demand, how is the participation of Asian funds?
A：Since 2025, the demand for funds in the Asian region, especially domestic gold ETFs, has been gradually increasing. By expressing investment demands through gold ETFs, this has led to changes in fund pricing and driven the growth of China's gold ETF market.
Q：What are the important events in the internationalization process of the Renminbi?
A：Three important events in the internationalization of the renminbi include: China and Hong Kong promoting the layout of gold depositories, Southeast Asian countries wishing to store newly purchased gold in the Shanghai International Gold Exchange; Australia settling iron ore payments in renminbi, all of which are beneficial to the internationalization process of the renminbi.
Q：What are the risk warnings for short-term gold investment allocation?
A：Although the current price of gold has risen slightly, the volatility is still relatively controllable. However, investors are advised to pay attention to the risks of silver trading, as its volatility is high. The gold-to-silver ratio is close to historical average levels, reducing the cost-effectiveness of silver.
Q：What is the fund flow situation of the global gold ETFs?
A：Global gold ETFs maintained a small net inflow in November and December, with two larger inflow periods occurring in 2025 from February to April and from September to October. Correspondingly, outflows occurred in May and late October of 2025. Currently, the funding situation for gold is moderately bullish overall.
Q：What is the performance and timing view of gold futures? What are the key dimensions that specifically affect the trend of gold?
A：After experiencing the first low point in May last year, Qmax futures are currently in the bottom oscillation recovery stage. The gold signal division provided by Huaxin Fund's PMS (private asset management) shows that we maintain a moderate bullish conclusion on gold for January, believing that gold is still favored in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts coming to an end and geopolitical conflicts. Key dimensions include: changes in geopolitical risk, especially after the release of the US national security strategy white paper, there have been significant changes in the geopolitical situation, which may lead to a redistribution of global resources; narrow range oscillations in the US stock market form a slight negative impact on gold; futures positions and logic in the neutral biased towards good; technically, gold is oscillating between $4300 and $4500; in terms of real interest rates, factors such as future interest rate cuts and expansion of the balance sheet by the Federal Reserve are positive for gold; although a stronger renminbi exchange rate has a certain negative impact on gold, in the long term, central banks around the world may still continue to buy gold.
Q：What investment recommendations do you have aside from gold?
A：From a monthly perspective, the opportunities in 2025 lie in asset pricing corrections and global central bank liquidity replays. In 2026, as central bank liquidity easing enters the second half, it is recommended to focus on stocks such as ChiNext 50, SSE 180, and CSI 300. The main investment themes include economic productivity (AI and high-end manufacturing), Hong Kong stock technology, and dividend assets, while also paying attention to gold and related ETF products.
Q：What are the four newly-launched ETF allocation strategies?
A：The newly launched strategies are Huaxia ETF Value Balancing 801636 (targeting low-risk preference investors, pursuing excess returns), Huaxia ETF Technology Growth 801632 (aiming at technology funds, achieving excess returns), Huaxia ETF Stable Large Class Allocation 801630 (mainly dominated by bonds to achieve absolute return solutions, control drawdowns), and Huaxia ETF Active Large Class Allocation 801631 (equity accounts for 60%, bonds account for 40%, providing a convenient global asset allocation solution).
Q：What are the specific directions of the technology growth strategy layout?
A：The growth strategy of technology will focus on mainstream technology tracks, especially on the direction of ChiNext 50 science and technology innovation chips. In this issue, we strategically favor areas such as ChiNext artificial intelligence, Hong Kong stock connect, Hang Seng technology, aerospace robotics, etc.
Q：How is the value-balanced strategy allocated?
A：The value-balanced strategy uses the low-volatility total return index as a benchmark and adopts a core-satellite strategy. The core weights include Hong Kong-listed red-chip companies with dividends, engineering machinery, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel.
Q：What is the investment allocation view for January?
A：In January, we tend to focus on the overall market value and direction of the cycle, and suggest paying attention to the manufacturing, financial, real estate cycles, and dividend sectors. Views on technology, consumption, and medicine are more neutral. The industry rotation portfolio weights are focused on domestic chain-related technology, Hong Kong stocks, Hang Seng Internet banking, dividend gold securities, and cash flow in Hong Kong, Hang Seng technology, aerospace, and new energy industries.
Q：What is your view on large asset classes?
A：In January, we are very optimistic about Hong Kong stock assets, hold a neutral view on domestic bonds, and maintain a neutral overall asset allocation. This is mainly based on factors such as the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the valuation cost-effectiveness of Hong Kong stocks, and industrial capital repurchase behavior.
Q：How is the asset allocation strategy for ETFs?
A：Our ETF strategy portfolio has been optimized in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, overseas markets, and commodities, with a higher weight on bond assets in this period. The core components include SSE 180, ChiNext 50 dividend, Hong Kong dividend, Hong Kong Stock Connect Hang Seng Tech, Nasdaq, German gold oil, government bonds, and innovative bonds. This strategy has achieved positive returns every year since 2023.
Q：What plans do you have for future programs?
A：The program will continue to share more topics such as factors influencing the gold market, judgment of the gold cycle, allocation plans and ETF allocation indexes, and will continue to provide explanations of gold and global asset classes.
