车美仕 (KMX.US) 2026财年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Carmax faced a 6% drop in gross profit, attributed to lower used retail volume, but remains committed to market share gains and profitability through competitive pricing, operational efficiency, and a $150 million reduction in SG&A expenses. The company is enhancing customer experiences, expanding credit participation, and leveraging technology to improve efficiency, aiming for long-term growth despite market challenges.
会议速览
Carmax faced challenges in Q2 FY26, with sales falling short due to macroeconomic factors and strategic inventory adjustments. The company prioritizes price competitiveness, market share growth, and operational efficiency, aiming for significant earnings growth. Initiatives include enhancing the omnichannel customer experience, boosting consumer awareness, and achieving $150M in SG&A reductions over 18 months. Carmax also focuses on increasing penetration and profitability in diversified business areas, with a strong emphasis on maintaining price competitiveness and inventory balance to support future sales growth.
The dialogue highlights Carmax's commitment to long-term brand investment through strategic advertising, achieving SGA efficiencies, and expanding credit spectrum offerings. It details Carmax Auto Finance's second-quarter performance, including sales penetration, underwriting adjustments, and a successful VEB transaction, while emphasizing profitability and risk management in loan portfolios.
Second quarter net earnings per diluted share decreased due to lower volume and cap loss provision adjustment. Despite this, gross profits in various segments remained stable or slightly improved, driven by efficiency gains and cost coverage. The company is committed to reducing SGA expenses by $150 million over 18 months, focusing on technology modernization and process automation. Marketing spend is expected to increase in the back half of the year, particularly in Q3, to support new brand positioning. Capital allocation includes accelerated share repurchases, and the company aims to deliver positive margins through efficiency improvements and cost controls.
Discusses the impact of demand pull-forward and inventory depreciation on Q2 sales, with a focus on restoring competitive pricing and market agility amidst fluctuating market conditions.
The dialogue discusses adjustments in Caf income and provisions due to changes in customer performance, highlighting the impact of economic conditions, payment trends, and strategic policy adjustments on financial outcomes.
The dialogue highlights cost-saving measures from legacy system retirements, AI, and automation, aiming for $150M savings. These savings will be partially reinvested in growth areas like marketing, supporting new brand positioning, post-omnichannel transformation.
Discusses the net savings after accounting for ongoing expenses, excluding one-time charges, and considering investments in advertising and sales initiatives.
The dialogue emphasizes strategic reinvestment in the business to enhance sales and highlights sgna savings as a significant factor strengthening the company's earnings model. The speaker expresses confidence in these financial strategies and thanks the audience, inviting further questions.
Discusses leveraging $150 million in SG&A savings by reinvesting in sales-driving initiatives and generating additional profits, aiming for flexibility and competitiveness in a volatile market post-pandemic.
The discussion revolves around the concept of price elasticity, emphasizing its influence on sales and profitability. It highlights the importance of considering various factors like variable expenses, workforce capacity, and ancillary profits when determining pricing strategies. The dialogue underscores the necessity of adaptability in response to market dynamics and competitors' actions to optimize pricing decisions.
Discussion centered on the company's credit market strategy, emphasizing a cautious approach towards subprime lending and the financial implications of servicing fees, including income from beneficial interest and servicing costs.
The dialogue explores the impact of an aggressive competitive environment and macroeconomic factors on achieving positive unit comps, emphasizing the importance of market share gains and consumer behavior analysis.
Discusses factors behind sales decline, highlighting increased web traffic but challenges in converting visitors into selling opportunities. Emphasizes improving initial presentation and engagement at the top of the funnel.
Discusses the impact of high prices on consumer willingness to purchase, contrasting increased web traffic with reduced selling opportunities, suggesting a mix of consumer hesitation and readiness to buy.
Observes a downturn in application volume among high FICO score customers, particularly affecting core clientele, while noting potential stability in low FICO segments, suggesting a broader trend impacting lenders and dealers alike.
A dialogue explores the reserve inventory concept, its potential impact on sales by limiting visibility of items to other customers, and considerations for policy adjustments.
The dialogue discusses the management of reserved inventory in car sales, emphasizing the importance of active tracking and economic decision-making to ensure timely transfers. It highlights the challenges posed by title requirements in different states, the role of reserved inventory in facilitating sales, and the economic considerations involved in minimizing the time cars are held in reserve. The conversation underscores the significance of optimizing the reserved inventory process to enhance sales efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Discusses credit delinquency trends, emphasizing seasonality and vintage analysis, with expectations for stable or slightly higher provisions in future quarters due to a shift towards lower credit risk lending.
Discussed cost-saving initiatives in Cogs and SGNA, with plans to reinvest some savings for competitiveness while also benefiting the bottom line, ensuring price competitiveness remains a priority.
The dialogue discusses the impact of seasonal trends on GPU pricing, suggesting a potential need to adjust expectations for the third quarter. While annual targets remain unchanged, last year's record highs in both retail and wholesale are expected to normalize, aligning more closely with historical averages. This guidance aims to manage investor expectations regarding quarterly performance variations.
Discusses the inventory surplus in 2022, dealers' aggressive pricing, and the prolonged margin preservation strategy, contrasting it with a one-time inventory reset scheme in September.
Discussion focused on recent depreciation events, comparing past occurrences with the current one, highlighting stabilization efforts and upcoming seasonal trends. Emphasis on strategic margin holding during previous depreciations, contrasting with current proactive approach. Future seasonal depreciation is anticipated, requiring vigilant management.
Discussion revolves around the financial implications of a $900 million asset sale, including upfront gains versus loss of future interest income, potential reduction in net interest margin, and strategies to maintain flat income, particularly through managing provisions and acquiring higher net interest margin receivables by Q4.
Speakers discuss the impact of servicing income and retention rates on financial forecasts, emphasizing the need to consider origination provisions, net interest margin, and potential losses when predicting earnings for the full fiscal year, with a consensus leaning towards a slightly down forecast compared to the previous year.
Discussed trends in used car unit demand, noting a barbell effect with growth in under $25,000 and over $40,000 vehicles, while mid-range sales were down or flat. Older vehicles (over 10 years) showed stronger market performance.
The dialogue discusses the strategy of balancing older, higher mileage inventory with newer used cars to cater to a wide range of customer preferences, aiming to maintain sales growth while ensuring a good selection for core customers.
The call wraps up with gratitude expressed towards team members for their efforts in supporting each other, customers, and communities. The host thanks participants for their engagement and looks forward to future updates, officially ending the Q2 fiscal earnings discussion.
要点回答
Q:What are the key priorities for CarMax as outlined in the speech?
A:CarMax's key priorities include focusing on price and selection, driving consumer awareness of their differentiated customer experience, delivering incremental reductions of at least $150 million in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses over the next 18 months, and generating additional profit through components of their diversified business.
Q:What challenges impacted CarMax's second quarter results?
A:The challenges that impacted CarMax's second quarter results include lower sales volume due to a sales uptick in March and April due to tariff speculation, which led to an inventory ramp and subsequently lower prices and sales in the second quarter; the intentional slowing of vehicle purchases to balance inventory with sales; and the reduction in the number of vehicles purchased through online instant appraisal experiences.
Q:How did CarMax's new brand positioning campaign perform?
A:CarMax's new brand positioning campaign 'Want to DROPS' was launched with the goal of highlighting their unique omnichannel experience. The campaign resulted in a high Net Promoter Score, driven by satisfaction among customers purchasing online and using their omnichannel experience.
Q:What is the progress and goal regarding selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses?
A:CarMax has made progress in driving selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) efficiencies, and they are on track to achieve at least an incremental $150 million in SG&A reductions over the next 18 months without impacting their growth strategy, as they will continue to invest in future initiatives.
Q:What were the results of the second quarter regarding the origination volume and contract rates by Carmax Auto Finance?
A:Carmax Auto Finance originated over $2 billion in the second quarter, resulting in sales penetration that was 30 basis points above last year. The weighted average contract rate charged to new customers was down 3 basis points from the previous quarter, reflecting downward rate testing within the quarter.
Q:What is the impact of the recent VEB transaction on CarMax's financials?
A:The VEB transaction closed with a total notes issuance of $900 million, included the sale of most of the residual financial interest to third-party investors, and is expected to result in a gain on sale of approximately $25 million to $30 million in third-quarter income. Additionally, CarMax expects to receive approximately $40 million to $45 million in additional cap income related to servicing fees and the retained beneficial interest over the length of the transaction.
Q:What factors contributed to the decrease in retail gross profit?
A:The decrease in retail gross profit was primarily due to lower volume and relatively stable per unit margins, with the retail gross profit margin per used unit being $2216, which was in line with historical averages.
Q:How has the deployment of AI technology impacted the company's operations?
A:The deployment of AI technology, particularly the AI-powered virtual assistant named Sky, has led to year-over-year double-digit percent improvements in containment rate, customer experience, consultants productivity, and web and phone response rate.
Q:How are the company's capital allocation plans, particularly regarding share repurchases?
A:The company continued share repurchases at an accelerated pace, buying back approximately 2.9 million shares for a total expenditure of $180 million, with about $1.56 billion of repurchase authorization remaining.
Q:What is the company's focus regarding customer experience and market differentiation?
A:The company is focused on enhancing the customer-centric car buying and selling experience, driving sales, advancing innovations for better customer and associate experiences, bolstering marketing efforts, increasing efficiencies, and expanding credit participation.
Q:What caused the pull-forward in demand into the first quarter and its impact on sales?
A:The pull-forward in demand into the first quarter was attributed to the combination of buying inventory up and then seeing depreciation, which had a significant impact on sales. This pull-forward created a weaker sales pattern throughout the second quarter, although sales in September and to date have shown strength compared to the second quarter, still being a bit soft from a year-over-year standpoint.
Q:What is the company's stance on pricing and how is it responding to market changes?
A:The company is focused on competitive pricing and aims to be nimble when responding to market changes. They quickly reacted to the $1000 depreciation over a month period in the quarter. The company's focus going forward is to remain nimble in response to an aggressive pricing environment.
Q:Can you provide an update on Cap income and the changes from the last earnings call?
A:The company experienced a larger provision impact this quarter and the previous earnings call was made just two months ago. There were expectations of increased year-over-year Cap income, but now there's a more dramatic change due to factors like a higher overall payment environment and the performance of the 22 and 23 vintages. The company had initially seen an increase in losses but made adjustments in Q1 and further significant adjustments in the current quarter to address the performance issues.
Q:What adjustments did the company make last quarter and what is their current understanding of the situation?
A:The company made sizable adjustments last quarter and has a better handle on where these extensions are going to land, having observed the extensions play through almost completely. They are two thirds of the way through the vintages with about a third left to play out, and they are extremely pleased with the 24 and 25 vintages.
Q:What is the impact of the loss adjustments on the company's profitability?
A:The company is still making a lot of money, despite loss adjustments that have reduced profits by roughly a half a billion dollars. They expect to achieve even lifetime value across the Ly and ly betas.
Q:How are the company's cost reduction efforts impacting their growth strategy?
A:The company's investments in technology systems and processes are allowing them to rationalize costs without impacting their growth strategy. They are focusing on retiring legacy systems, lowering licensing usage, and eliminating certain functionalities to become more efficient.
Q:What is the projected amount of cost reduction and how will the savings be reinvested?
A:The company expects to achieve cost reductions of at least $150 million, which will be reinvested back into the business to drive top line sales. They anticipate that the savings will be a material tailwind to their earnings model.
Q:What is the strategy behind reinvesting the cost savings into the business?
A:The strategy is to be nimble and competitive by reinvesting a portion of the $150 million in cost savings directly into driving sales and by generating additional profit from other parts of the business for flexibility and further reinvestment.
Q:What considerations are taken into account when deciding on pricing strategies?
A:When considering pricing strategies, the company looks at various factors such as variable expenses, the capacity of their operational workforce, ancillary profit attachments, performance in areas like Esp or finance, and competitor actions. These factors influence the price elasticity of demand and help to ensure the pricing strategy remains effective given market conditions.
Q:Can you provide details on the servicing fee and how it impacts the company's expenses and reporting?
A:The company expects to incur expenses of around $40 to $45 million related to the servicing fee. These costs will be embedded in the cost of the business and reported in the appropriate line item within the company's financial reporting. The additional value from the servicing side will also be included in the reported figures.
Q:How does the company view their push into the subprime market given the current macroeconomic environment?
A:The company has been cautious and prudent regarding their push into the subprime market, focusing on the top half of what is considered tier 2. They acknowledge there is a level of penetration and potential for profit but are being very cautious about how they approach it. They are not characterizing it as deep subprime and believe they are learning how to service and price these loans correctly.
Q:What is the expected impact of the 5% retention on future income?
A:The expected impact of the 5% retention on future income is that it will continue to contribute positively to the overall income, and the company is pleased with this part of their strategy and the execution.
Q:What proportion of the income is expected to come from the beneficial interest versus servicing fees?
A:The income is expected to come from a mix of beneficial interest and servicing fees.
Q:What is the projected timeline for positive unit comps?
A:The projected timeline for positive unit comps was not explicitly provided in the transcript; the focus was on maintaining an aggressive approach and not backing off from the strategy of gaining market share.
Q:Is the used car market deteriorating and what factors are contributing to any changes?
A:The used car market is not deteriorating, but there is a macroeconomic concern as some consumers, particularly those with mid to high FICO scores, are sitting on the sidelines. This is indicated by a decrease in app volume, which is a measure of consumer activity. Factors contributing to any changes include consumer sentiment, inflation, and a potential overconfident consumer entering the market with the assumption they have plenty of cash, only to be hit with inflation.
Q:What is the stance of the company regarding market share gains for the full year?
A:The company's stance is that it plans to continue to gain market share for the full year, despite a tough comparison in June, July, and August due to the previous year's Cdk outage. The company has not backed off from its strategy of pursuing market share and does not foresee any reason to change course.
Q:How does the company view the consumer behavior in the current market environment?
A:The company views consumer behavior as being particularly cautious in 2022-23, with consumers appearing more stressed. However, as prices have come down and interest rates have declined, typically customers in a more stressed environment perform better. The company has carefully watched the performance of this cohort and expects it to improve over time.
Q:What is the reason behind the decrease in unit sales despite increased web traffic?
A:The decrease in unit sales despite increased web traffic is attributed to the fact that not all website visitors are creating selling opportunities. While some of this can be controlled by improving how the website presents vehicles and making it more engaging, some visitors are not ready to buy or are just looking, which is out of the company's control. Additionally, the conversion rates vary significantly depending on the quality of the visitor, with high-quality and high-end vehicles experiencing lower conversion rates.
Q:What is the impact of reserve inventory on sales and is there a potential change to this strategy?
A:The impact of reserve inventory on sales is that it can restrict the number of vehicles that are immediately available for sale and potentially restrict sales to other interested parties. Reserve inventory is generally for customers who are interested in specific vehicles. The company is active in managing how long a consumer can hold a car or reserve one, and if a sale is not completed, the inventory returns to view for the next potential buyer. However, inventory that cannot be transferred due to title issues in certain states is not available for sale. The company does not disclose the amount of sales or the percentage of people who reserve versus those who do not complete a purchase.
Q:What is the process for reserved inventory and how much of the company's sales go through this process?
A:On the reserved inventory, consumers can still express interest, and cars are not held for reserve over three days. A third of the company's sales go through the process of transfers and sales through the reserved inventory.
Q:What are the credit trends and how should provisions for the third quarter be considered?
A:There is a seasonality trend in delinquency rates with a ramp up after tax time in Q2 and a typical decline through delinquency time. Overall delinquency rates are assessed by vintage and while the newer and older, more seasoned inventory continued to be in line, the delinquency trends on the newer stuff are a concern. The company feels positive about continued lower risk tightened sales that will perform well. The provision for originations this quarter and the true up are indicative of expectations for the third quarter.
Q:How do delinquency trends and provisions correlate with the quarter's performance?
A:Delinquency rates exhibit seasonality, ramping up in Q2 and typically declining thereafter. The overall delinquency rates are closely watched by vintage, and while some vintages have adjusted, the delinquency trends on newer and older inventory have remained in line. The company feels positive about the lower risk tightened sales performance. Provisions for new originations and true ups are reflective of the company's expectations for the third quarter.
Q:What is the outlook for cost savings and how will it impact pricing and COGS?
A:The company has identified cost savings of $150 million which could translate into around $200 per car. There are separate initiatives for cost savings, with COG savings ahead of schedule. The company is going after another $125 million in COG savings this year. They are focused on maintaining competitiveness, and while some savings will be reinvested in pricing and COGS, the company doesn't foresee the need to reinvest all the savings. They are committed to continuing to be price competitive.
Q:What is the anticipated impact on pricing and wholesale and retail GPUs?
A:Pricing is being reset in light of performance and market conditions, with year-over-year retail GPU expected to be similar. However, the conversation around pricing suggests that investors should modestly lower their expectations for GPU growth. For the third quarter, both retail and wholesale GPU targets are expected to decrease from last year's record high, with wholesale following suit due to its historical performance in the third quarter.
Q:How should inventory adjustments and depreciation events be considered in financial forecasts?
A:The company experienced a depreciation event in 2023 and 2024, which caused significant depreciation but was managed by holding onto margins. In contrast, the current event is expected to be less severe, with a focus on navigating through seasonal depreciation. The company will adjust as needed, considering elasticity and margins. There is a pull forward effect on income due to the timing of the depreciation event, impacting the overall NIM. However, new higher NIM receivables will aid in regaining NIM by the fourth quarter. Factors like servicing income and retention also provide a tailwind to forecasts.
Q:What are the dynamics of used car demand and how is it expected to affect future merchandising strategies?
A:Older vehicles have performed better than new ones in the market, with a barbell effect where vehicles under $25,000 and 40,000 plus are doing well, while others are flat or down. Sales of older vehicles have increased, reflecting a trend in consumer preferences. The company has been merchandising to meet these preferences, with an eye on balancing the older inventory with a good selection of later-model used cars to satisfy the core customer demographic. This balance is crucial as having too many older, high-mileage vehicles may offset the benefits of having the desired models for the core customer base.

CarMax, Inc.
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