特斯拉 (TSLA.US) 2025年第二季度业绩电话会
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会议摘要
Tesla discusses its leading AI chip design and software, showcasing Optimus robots, expanding Robo Taxi services with a focus on safety and autonomy, and growing its energy business despite challenges from tariffs and supply chain issues. The company anticipates significant sales improvements in Europe once supervised Full Self-Driving is approved, and plans to double the U.S. grid's energy output through battery advancements. Tesla also notes a 25% increase in Full Self-Driving subscription adoption and plans to educate more owners about its safety benefits.
会议速览

Tesla successfully launched its Robotaxi service in the second quarter of 2025, providing passengers with a paid self-driving ride experience. The company has expanded its service area in Austin and plans to significantly increase the service range in the coming weeks, surpassing its competitors.

After obtaining regulatory approval, we plan to gradually launch autonomous taxi services in the Bay Area, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and other areas. Our goal is to cover half of the US population by the end of this year. Although it may be technically feasible, we will operate with extreme caution, gradually expanding the service area and the number of operational vehicles to ensure safety.

The Tesla Model Y has become the best-selling car in Turkey, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Austria, despite not yet receiving full regulatory approval for Fully Self-Driving (FSD) in Europe. It is expected that once approved, sales will further increase. Tesla is working with Dutch regulators in hopes of achieving a similar autonomous driving experience in Europe as in the United States by the end of the year. In China, Tesla is facing regulatory challenges as it has not been able to offer FSD under supervision, but is working on resolving this issue. In the United States, Tesla will gradually relax driver attention requirements based on safety levels in different regions to improve the autonomous driving experience. Additionally, the success of Tesla's restaurants in the Los Angeles area has attracted global attention, becoming a highlight. Regarding Fully Self-Driving, Tesla will continue to push forward and expects significant improvements to be made in the coming weeks. Fully Autonomous Driving is considered a key factor in increasing the value of vehicles.

Tesla is significantly improving performance through software upgrades, planning to increase parameter counts by nearly 10 times. This enhancement is facing challenges in memory bandwidth. Despite facing tariffs and supply chain difficulties, the energy business continues to grow, with battery demand being underestimated. By increasing batteries, the energy output of the US grid can be doubled. At the same time, the design of the Optimus robot is continuously being optimized, with the upcoming Optimus 3 design being considered exceptional. It needs to design all components from the principles of physics and use AI technology similar to that of cars for training. Tesla is a world leader in the practical application of AI.

The conversation mentioned Tesla's leading position in the field of artificial intelligence, especially in practical applications, as well as its outstanding performance in AI efficiency and intelligence density. In addition, it discussed Tesla's plans to mass produce a robot called Optimus in the short term, with the goal of reaching a production scale of one million units per year, and is expected to achieve this goal within five years. The conversation also emphasized Tesla's significant progress in autonomous driving technology and optimistic expectations for the future, indicating that Tesla has the potential to become one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Tesla achieved a production speedup of the new Model Y and delivery of fully autonomous driving cars in the second quarter, marking an important milestone in the company's development. However, upcoming policy changes such as the cancellation of electric vehicle tax incentives and adjustments to emission standards will impact near-term business, potentially leading to tight vehicle supply and reduced sales due to credit regulation, thereby affecting total revenue. Tesla is also facing cost pressures from tariff increases, though the company is working hard to manage these impacts. On the product side, Tesla's entire product line has been updated, with a significant increase in the adoption rate of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities in North America, which not only enhances vehicle safety but also drives growth in automotive revenue. Profit margins in the energy and solar business have improved, but have been affected by fluctuations in deployment volume and tariffs. Profit margins in services and other businesses have also improved, primarily due to increased profitability from supercharger and insurance services. Despite challenges, Tesla will continue to invest in AI projects and manufacturing expansion to support long-term growth.

Robo-taxis are performing well in Austin, with plans to expand operations in the current area by more than 10 times and to conduct testing in multiple cities, including Florida and Nevada in the United States. Technical and regulatory barriers still exist, but the goal is to make fully self-driving (FSD) technology more widespread for personal use. In addition, the benefits of Tesla's investment in X AI are discussed, aiming to promote the widespread adoption of autonomous driving technology through more affordable vehicle models without impacting revenue or gross margins.

In the discussion, the company side expressed welcome to shareholders to put forward any proposals, and will act according to the wishes of shareholders. At the same time, regarding the specific work content of the Tesla design studio, the company stated that it usually maintains a high level of confidentiality, does not disclose new product information publicly, but emphasizes that they are committed to planning an exciting future product line for Tesla.

Tesla is undergoing a fundamental shift from pre-autonomous driving to post-autonomous driving era, and plans to clarify this transformation through a new master plan, which is expected to significantly change the world. The current focus is on rolling out hardware 4 for unsupervised driving, and then evaluating the upgrade needs of vehicles with hardware 3, which may involve upgrading to hardware 4 or future hardware 5.

The discussion focused on the progress of Dojo 2 and AI 5, with expectations that both will reach large-scale operation next year, as well as the possibility of integrating AI chips into cars and AI projects. In addition, the impact of the BBC canceling tax incentives for solar projects on Megapack sales channels was discussed, confirming their diversification and not being heavily reliant on Megapack projects paired with solar energy.

The discussion focused on the role of energy storage technology in improving the efficiency of the power grid and its ability for rapid deployment. It also analyzed that despite recent policies not being very favorable to solar energy, solar energy projects will continue to be constructed due to the necessity of energy demand. In addition, the current operation of robot taxi businesses was mentioned, including the total mileage operated and service expansion plans, with an outlook on economic goals through optimizing designs to reduce costs per mile.

The concept of designing an cost-optimized autonomous taxi Cyber Capp from scratch was discussed, emphasizing that the design does not seek ultimate driving pleasure, such as high speed and acceleration performance, but rather focuses more on efficiency and practicality. In addition, it was mentioned that costs can be reduced by using more efficient tires, reducing acceleration demands, and optimizing the braking system, as well as further improving efficiency through automatic cleaning, maintenance, and charging.

During the discussion, Tesla CEO expressed concerns and expectations about the company's future transition into the field of artificial intelligence, including autonomous humanoid robots and self-driving technology. He mentioned that despite having a small stake in the company, he hopes to have enough control to ensure the company's direction is correct, while also being open to being replaced when necessary. In addition, the CEO discussed competition with competitors and talent wars, as well as Tesla's advantages in AI chip design and software development. Finally, he mentioned that at the upcoming shareholder meeting, there will be a presentation on the latest developments with the humanoid robot Optimus.

Tesla's CEO mentioned in the discussion the layout and design of its robot laboratory, which is similar to the scenes in the TV show "Westworld" and demonstrates the fusion of technology and the future. At the same time, he also talked about the possibility of including non-Tesla-owned vehicles in its robot taxi network, emphasizing a gradual advancement strategy to ensure safety and control. It is expected that by next year, people will be able to add or remove their vehicles from the Tesla fleet, but there will be a standard process in place to ensure the proper operation of the vehicles.

The dialogue focused on the expansion plan of the robot taxi business, with a particular emphasis on discussing the costs associated with expanding the business, how to ensure adequate funding, and the importance of security verification. It was mentioned that the company's balance sheet could be used as a temporary source of funds and that the possibility of external financing would be considered after reaching a certain income level. Additionally, the importance of asset security and maintenance was emphasized, such as the wear and tear of tires, and the importance of operational safety.

Tesla mentioned in the discussion that since the launch of FSD version 12, the adoption rate of FSD in North America has significantly increased, and the reduction in subscription prices has led to a 25% increase in subscription rates. Tesla plans to further promote FSD functionality through educating car owners and providing free trials. In addition, regarding future pricing strategies, Tesla stated that it is currently in a transition period and may face short-term challenges due to the loss of incentive policies. However, with the widespread application of autonomous driving technology, it is expected that by the end of next year, Tesla's business model will become very attractive.

During the discussion, it was mentioned that Tesla plans to enhance its purchasing power by reducing the cost of electric vehicles. Specific measures include reducing the use of silicon carbon materials, avoiding the use of rare earth elements, and adopting new architectural designs. In addition, Tesla's development in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) was also explored, particularly its competition and cooperation with X AI, emphasizing the differences in AI model scale between the two and their respective areas of focus.

The discussion is focused on choosing a career direction, with some people leaning towards research on super-intelligent data centers, while others are more interested in AI applications in the real world. Although both are highly attractive fields, individuals' interests and goals determine which aspect they are more inclined towards.
要点回答
Q:What are the updates regarding Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing service?
A:Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing service, previously suspended due to regulatory challenges, is expected to resume in a cautious manner, with plans to greatly expand the service area and increase the number of operational vehicles. Elon Musk mentioned that regulatory permission is expected in the Bay Area and several other locations, and the service could cover most of the US by the end of the year, pending regulatory approvals.
Q:How is Tesla's Model Y performing in various countries?
A:Tesla's Model Y has become the best-selling car in Turkey, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Austria, and is considered the overall best-selling car in the world, aided by features like Autopilot, even without supervised self-driving. Approval for supervised Full Self-Drive (FSD) in Europe is pending, but once received, it's expected to significantly improve sales in Europe.
Q:What progress is Tesla making with regulatory approval in different regions?
A:Tesla is working towards regulatory approval in various regions. In the Netherlands, close cooperation with the country's regulator is nearing approval, which then needs to go through the EU process. Tesla is also facing challenges in China, but hopes to resolve these soon, as the lack of supervised FSD in China currently hinders sales. In the US, Tesla is confident about safety in different geographic areas and is planning to ease requirements on drivers' focus while using Autopilot.
Q:What improvements are being made to the Autopilot experience?
A:The Autopilot experience is set to improve significantly, especially outside of Washington, as the software is catching up with the Roadster's capabilities. The introduction of the Roadster will add back elements to the Autopilot experience, resulting in a step change improvement for users in these regions.
Q:What is the significance of the Tesla Dinah and Optimus?
A:The Tesla Dinah has been well-received and is a significant attraction in the Los Angeles area. The Optimus project, however, which is related to robotaxis, is being developed with the vision to significantly scale up production and enhance value. Optimus is described as the biggest product in the making, with Tesla focusing on optimizing its design and anticipating massive demand for robotaxis.
Q:What advancements are being made in battery technology and energy storage?
A:Despite challenges, Tesla's energy storage solutions are growing well. The battery pack is expanding capacity quickly and will be further improved with upgrades. Notably, Tesla is seeing record power deployment growth and anticipates batteries to be a massive industry. The scale of battery demand is not fully appreciated, but when added to the grid, can substantially increase energy output, underscoring the importance of Optimus and battery technology in general.
Q:What are the challenges involved in developing Optimus?
A:Developing Optimus involves designing every part from physics first principles, with no off-the-shelf solutions working. The process includes creating and training optimizers to use its LiDAR center and sensors with neural nets, and applying AI inference optimization techniques that are effective for a car to Optimus, due to both being robots in different forms.
Q:Why is Tesla considered the best in the world in terms of real-world AI applications?
A:Tesla is considered the best in real-world AI applications due to its superior performance compared to Google and other companies, as evidenced by its ability to execute real-world tasks effectively with its vehicles, which have many sensors. Tesla also has the best inference efficiency and the highest intelligence density of any AI.
Q:What does intelligence density signify and why is it important?
A:Intelligence density signifies the intelligence per unit of memory, specifically the intelligence per gigabyte of RAM, which is a critical constraint in hardware. It is important because it determines how intelligently a system can operate given its memory limitations and is therefore a key factor in evaluating AI efficiency.
Q:What are the future plans for Optimus 3?
A:Future plans for Optimus 3 include retooling certain aspects of the design, with the goal of releasing prototypes by the end of the year and scaling production next year to reach a million units per year as quickly as possible.
Q:Is achieving a production rate of a million units per year for Optimus within reach?
A:It is considered an achievable target to reach a production rate of a million units per year for Optimus within less than five years.
Q:What major milestones and progress has Tesla made in 2025?
A:In 2025, Tesla made significant progress in autonomy, including achieving what was previously thought to be impossible, and executing well on digital and human right robot autonomy. The company has delivered on its stated goals, and milestones include the ramping up of new Model Y production, the rollout of over-the-air service in Austin, and autonomous car delivery directly to customers.
Q:What could make Tesla the most valuable company in the world?
A:Tesla could become the most valuable company in the world if it continues to execute well with digital and human right robot autonomy, as it demonstrates the potential to be a highly valuable entity in the industry.
Q:What is the impact of the end of the IRA EV credit on Tesla's business?
A:The end of the IRA EV credit will impact Tesla's business by reducing the supply of vehicles in the US, leading to longer lead times for customers, and potentially affecting the delivery of new orders. It will also affect revenue from sales of regulatory credits to other OEMs and lower revenue for Tesla.
Q:How has the update to the Tesla vehicle lineup affected test drives and production?
A:The update to the Tesla vehicle lineup has led to an increase in the number of test drives globally. The production of the lower-cost model was planned for the first half of 2025, but due to the focus on delivering as many vehicles as possible in the US before the tax credit expires and the complexity of introducing a new product, the ramp-up will be slower than initially expected.
Q:How has the adoption of FSD affected Tesla's automotive revenue?
A:The adoption of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) has positively affected the company's automotive revenue, which increased by 19% sequentially despite only a 14% improvement in total deliveries. This was primarily due to improved average selling prices (ASPs) because of the new Model Y, resulting in better margins and improved mix.
Q:What is the financial impact of tariffs on Tesla's automotive business?
A:Tariffs have impacted Tesla's automotive business by increasing the cost by approximately $300 million sequentially, with two-thirds of that impact in the automotive sector and the rest in energy. The full impact of tariffs will be felt in the following quarters, leading to increased costs in the near term.
Q:How are AI applications impacting energy requirements?
A:AI applications are increasing energy requirements at a rapid scale due to their very high energy consumption.
Q:What are the challenges faced by the storage business?
A:The storage business is facing challenges from both tariffs and the early expiration of consumer credits by the end of the year, which are affecting the residential storage business.
Q:How did the margins and operating expenses of the services and other businesses change?
A:The margins for the services and other businesses improved sequentially due to higher profits from supercharging and improved insurance and service center profitability. Operating expenses grew as investments in AI projects continued, including employee-related costs and AI compute depreciation.
Q:What is Tesla's investment strategy in AI, and what challenges are present in the business environment?
A:Tesla is continuing to make investments in AI, with growing operating expenses especially in R&D. Despite near-term challenges from the negative impacts of the Bill and tariffs, Tesla is focused on the long-term potential of its AI and energy businesses.
Q:What has been the performance of robo taxis, and what expansion plans are there?
A:The robo taxis in Austin have been performing great, with a very smooth and safe customer experience. There has been a first phase of expansion in Austin, with plans to expand more than 10x the current operating region. Additionally, Tesla is testing the service in several cities and working with the government to get approval in the San Francisco Bay area.
Q:What are the technical and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised FSD, and what is the timeline?
A:Tesla is focusing on current models to avoid complexity, preparing more affordable models for Q4, and not expecting to negatively impact revenue or gross margin. The goal is to make a car that everyone loves at a more affordable price.
Q:Can you discuss the benefits of Tesla investing in AI?
A:The specific benefits of Tesla investing in AI were not discussed in detail, and the conversation moved on to another topic without further elaboration.
Q:What can be shared about the Tesla design studio and future product developments?
A:The design studio's activities are generally kept private, but it is mentioned that Tesla is working on a fundamental transformation of the company towards post-autonomy. A new master plan is being developed to articulate future plans, which include exciting developments and a transition from pre-autonomy to post-autonomy capabilities. It is mentioned that the future holds incredible potential and is expected to profoundly change the world in a positive way.
Q:What is the roadmap for hardware 3 users in terms of upgrades or receiving unsupervised FSD?
A:The focus is first on completing unsupervised FSD on hardware, and once that is done, Tesla will assess what needs to be done regarding hardware 3. The emphasis is on getting unsupervised FSD working before considering upgrades for hardware 3.
Q:Can you provide an update on Dojo and its potential relationship with X AI?
A:Dojo 2 is expected to operate at scale around next year with a capacity around 100,000 units. AI 5 and the AFIM truck are anticipated to be in production around the end of next year. Convergence between Dojo 3 and AI 6 is being considered, with the same chip potentially being used in both, possibly in larger quantities for the truck. High bandwidth communication between chips is being explored.
Q:What factors are contributing to the diversification of the sales pipeline?
A:The diversification of the sales pipeline is attributed to projects across different customers and market segments, and not being heavily weighted in mega projects paired with solar.
Q:When is the first lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility expected to be operational?
A:The first lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
Q:What is the current status of the robot taxi service?
A:The robot taxi service has operated more than 7,000 miles autonomously, is expanding both in terms of area and number of vehicles, and has not had any notable safety-critical interventions.
Q:How is the robot taxi service designed to optimize costs?
A:The robot taxi service, named CyberCab, is optimized for autonomy with design features that include more efficient tires, less acceleration, and no top-end speed requirement, aiming for sub-30 cents per mile potential over time.
Q:What is the expected cost per mile for the CyberCab and how will it affect operations and financials?
A:The expected cost per mile for the CyberCab is very low, around 50 cents per mile. This will allow for a significant increase in operations and is expected to have a material impact on financials around the end of the next year.
Q:What concerns does Elon Musk have about Tesla's direction and control, especially regarding AI and Optimus?
A:Elon Musk is concerned about having only a 13% stake in the economy and lack of control over Tesla's direction, especially in areas such as AI and Optimus. He anticipates these concerns to be addressed at the upcoming shareholders meeting.
Q:Is it too early for an AI day considering the competitive environment?
A:An AI day might be too early considering the competitive environment and the fact that competitors closely examine Tesla's activities for potential imitation. However, Tesla might consider discussing Optimus and AI in more detail at the shareholder meeting.
Q:What are the challenges associated with AI chip design and export restrictions?
A:The challenges include the current inability to ship AI chips that we would prefer to put in our car over our own, despite the technology being powerful enough to be a game changer. There are export restrictions that make it necessary to nerf the chips for markets outside the US.
Q:What is Optimus Lab and what are its current activities?
A:Optimus Lab is described as looking like the set of Westworld with robots in various stages of repair and walking around the office in Palo Alto. The activities suggest an optimistic vision for a world with common robots, moving from a rare to a common presence.
Q:What are the considerations and timeline for integrating non-Tesla vehicles into the RoboTaxi network?
A:Integrating non-Tesla vehicles into the RoboTaxi network is being approached with caution to ensure safety. There hasn't been a hard thought about it yet, but Tesla is committed to taking it step by step, prioritizing safety. Elon Musk suggests that by next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car from the Tesla fleet, emphasizing a cautious but confident timeline.
Q:What are the potential criteria for personal vehicles in the RoboTaxi network?
A:There will be criteria for personal vehicles in the RoboTaxi network, similar to the thorough checklists used by companies like Uber and Lyft. This will ensure safety and asset validation before allowing other operators to use Tesla's network.
Q:How is Tesla planning to finance the scaling of the robotaxi business?
A:Tesla plans to use its balance sheet for financing in the interim. As the business scales and revenue increases, Tesla could easily enter into a transaction to get funding. Eventually, once there is a clear cash flow stream, the company can finance the business.
Q:What trends are emerging with FSD adoption and how significant could FSD revenue be?
A:Since the launch of FSD version 12, there has been a marked improvement in FSD adoption and a 25% increase in penetration. FSD is positioned as a safety feature that is 10x safer, which is a motivator on its own. The feature is considered a game changer at $99 a month, offering a four-star rated service at an affordable price point. However, many Tesla owners have not yet tried FSD, underscoring the need for education and familiarization with the feature.
Q:How does Tesla plan to encourage FSD adoption among its customers?
A:Tesla plans to encourage FSD adoption by giving people free time to try FSD and by providing more prompts to encourage them to try the feature during specific drives. This approach is based on the understanding that seeing the capabilities of FSD is essential to appreciating its benefits.
Q:What pricing strategy will Tesla employ in the context of FSD and the expiration of tax credits?
A:Given the loss of incentives and the need to drive vehicle growth, Tesla is considering the use of pricing as a tool to support this goal while maintaining positive free cash flow. Elon Musk mentioned that there will be a transition period where incentives decline, and the company will assess how to use pricing to drive growth in line with its financial health.
Q:What are the expectations for Tesla's economic performance by the end of the next year?
A:It is expected that Tesla's economics will become very compelling by the end of the next year, especially once reaching autonomy at scale.
Q:What are the features of the lower cost model that Tesla is working on?
A:The lower cost model includes a reduction of two-thirds to three-fourths in silicon carbide usage, not using rare earths in the motor, and incorporating an innovative architecture that will not be part of an interim approach.
Q:How will the affordability of cars impact their availability and earnings potential?
A:Making the car more affordable will increase its availability and enable people to release their car to a fleet, which can then earn money. This is anticipated to be a significant development in the US next year, subject to legal disclaimers.
Q:How are Tesla and OpenAI managing their efforts and resources in AI research?
A:Tesla and OpenAI are pursuing different aspects of AI research. OpenAI focuses on terabyte and multi-terabyte scale models, which are relevant to real-world AI applications, while Tesla deals with much smaller models. OpenAI was created to accommodate those who wanted to work on artificial superintelligence, providing a focus for AI researchers with different interests.

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